저자: Chad · 외국인
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다듬은 글
is March 18th, 2026. And it was supposed to be about Jerome Pal. We're still going to be getting him at 2:00 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. Eastern. But just a couple of hours ago, we got another escalation in the war. And this time it was new. It was the first time Israel attacked the LG facilities. Uh this is the first time we've gone after any of the gas facilities and infrastructure in Iran.
and that started to clap things. You already had the IRGC said now all energy infrastructure is on the table. You even had some Trump comments talking about finishing off the straight of hormones and leaving all the people who don't want to get involved to deal with it. So that's causing a big reaction.
All of the nonchalant we've been going up this week kind of ignoring everything. Yesterday was your first day of market up oil up that kind of went out the window very quickly and now we got to deal with this. See what we get next. middle of the day, you get Jerome Pal in the SCP and now we're going to find out does this new escalation, it was definitely new today.
We were just talking about how most of the stuff that's occurred, you've already been exposed to ago got another you saw the reaction even when they announced the Hormas, the mining and all these different things. So now gas and energy infrastructure and putting that on the table that is your newest escalation as we start this uh middle of the third week of this conflict.
So Chad, I hope you're ready for it. There's a couple of company news out there, too. We'll we'll discuss it. But yeah, I think you're going to have an exciting day. But before we begin any of the excitement, before we try to . On quite frankly, they're even doing it right now, my friends. As we sit down on our computers, .
There's some people who support conflict and war, some people who don't. But when it's all said and done, you can never take away the heroism and the sacrifice that people have made. So, God bless all of the heroes, man. Thank you for your service. Don't ever take your freedom for granted. Big shout out to your families as well.
They made that sacrifice, too. And God bless every single one of you. Shout out to the vets, baby. , bab up. . Set up the church. [screaming] Oh, it's game time, Chad. Oh no. Oh my goodness. Happy Wednesday. It's going to be a good day, bro. It's going to be a wild day. It's pow day. Some comp. Are you ready?
Go back to bed if you don't want. You know what I'm saying? I don't know if I'm too hyped for you right now. Feel free, man. Feel free to go back to bed. And I don't It might be frustrating, too, but that's It'll make it a good day. Make it exciting. Make it exciting. So, oh, we got three. We got perfect time.
So yeah, I'm going to be watching a lot of different plays today. Uh just again, obviously oil, UNNG, we're going to see how that plays. Paladine, both contract drones. There's other IPO and a lot of headlines related to kamicazi drones. So watch those. Microsoft and Amazon, they're getting into a little scuffle over cloud and AI.
Macy's had good earning. Keep an eye on travel. I mean, yesterday's conferences hearing about some of the other uh what we were getting uh in terms of like where their demand is. This war conflict might just give us a nice little discount. So, watch out for that. VNO, there was a meta deal. A AOI light coaris, there was a conference on fiber.
Coupang was already good and they had a Nvidia deal yesterday and then KC, V-Net, Baba, BU, any of the China plays. Uh, they announced a lot of Claudebot hype and prices going up due to all of that demand. So, we'll see where it leads us, my friends. But yeah, that's all I got for you. Uh, I was going to play you a song, but since today is such a big day, I I do have to play you uh our sponsored post.
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Are you ready? Just keep that in mind today. Keep that in mind. Oh, Chadonia. All right, man. So, we got less than a minute till the bell. Have a good time. I mean, try not to pump on each other's head tops. I'm sure the bears are going to come out today. I didn't see them the last two days. But all in all, man, just be wise out there.
And remember, you got a couple of sections of today. You're going to deal with the morning. You're going to deal with the war and the conflict, and then we got to go through Powell. I have a little baby Powell preview for you, but I did post some of it, a big part of it on Instagram and uh the YouTube shorts if you haven't checked it out.
So either way, bro, inflation and Powell's idea and what they think about the war is going to be fascinating. So get ready for the bell, my friends. It should be a fun time. Should be a fun time. We'll see the first couple of minutes. Three, two, one. [bell] Round one, fight. All right, let's move this over to the spy.
Ah, VNO. that meta deal ain't help them out. But we'll see with rates, but bonds got clapped. Oh, there's also bad PPI. So, that even kind of ties into the Fed uh because again, this whole conflict uh that was your first set of data kind of highlighting how the short-term energy shock is already reflecting into some of the inflation data.
So, yeah, man. Here it is. Are we going to the top of the box or the bottom? I think we're at the bottom of the box. So, again, you're right in between it. You pretty much gave up yesterday's gain. I mean, what where we ended on Friday, that was still another like seven points, six points lower. So, you still got a little bit of room and we got a big day ahead.
So, that could go both ways. Brent, Brent and crude, crude is actually up only 1.9. So, you were down a little bit on the futures, but that actually started to flip there. Again, all of this happened just a couple of hours ago. So, this oil field, the confirmation, the response from the IRGC, uh even your boy uh Trump, all all of this was around like 7 a.m.
Eastern time. Uh VIX is already on the high. The China stocks are actually going, but they're still in the red. Some more than others. And then again, a Korea, they were up, too, but then they gave that up after all of this stuff happened. So yeah, Baba and Bou, they're not even up as much. BU's catching a little bit.
So again, the open claw stuff is going crazy in China, so a lot of those got the price targets. Let's see. Watch, watch at the reads. But again, VNO in that one meta deal. TTD. Oh, where's Coupang again? That's for your boy Kevin. Kevin Walsh. Oh, yeah. Very ill. I'm gonna give it a minute. I'm going to look at some of the SPY premiums.
See what we're dealing with. Should we move it to a today chart? You're only down by.3 surprisingly. Uh Dow is down by.3, NASDAQ's down by.3, and the Russell's down.5. So, heavily correlated today. Everything kind of took almost the exact same response. There's a couple of big tech that is up right now.
At least Tesla started off pretty good. Lulu's up three. Okay, they were pretty uh muted yesterday. They had like the earnings update and then the board of director stuff, but yeah, they went up and then Macy's, that was a earnings that's still holding up about 4%. And I think there was one more. And then gold and silver were down, but they're on the high ticker.
Staples are down. Your boy IGV down less than the Staples. And then banks, banks are down by 0.2. If those start to pick up, that'll uh that'll help it out a little bit. Gold peaking, it just depends. I mean, if the if the war leads into affecting the economy in a longer time frame, I don't think gold is going to move.
But if you actually if this is truly a short-term oil shock and you're over it within a couple of months, then gold should start to go back up as the dollar uh begins to decline. Actually, where are the energy plays again? And even those small cap ones are moving. Oil I'm at 2 three now. So oil's still climbing.
Oh, no way. There is some of these uh downside put plays that are still in the red from yesterday. No way. So yeah, I mean some of the premium in that move right there. Go look at the last trade. You'll see there's some that have been pretty washed. Very interesting. I think they're a little too out the money.
And then oil still again 971. There was a headline. It was actually new escalation. So I put it on the video and I was telling you guys yesterday, you've been exposed to a lot of the the war development so far. But pretty much a couple of hours ago, Israel decided to go after the uh the largest LNG facility in the world uh and pretty much attacked the Iranian uh infrastructure uh for gas.
Uh so it's a little different, but it did mark escalation. And then even Iran responded by saying that they're going to start targeting that all other facilities are on the table now. Go. I mean, go look at the dollar and then LNG. I know Chinery and then even natural gas might be in play. Toast is on the high.
Didn't that happen that one day? IDF detects launch of missiles from Iran working to intercept. US allows certain transactions involving PDVSA. Let's see. Core weave a couple of texts. Honestly, it's not too bad. Like I'm saying, the correlation is high. Everything is still all kind of moving the same.
Docu had an update, too. They're about to go green. So, let's see. Kweb still down. Bob and by is the one doing the better uh best out of all of them. Again, they raised prices uh due to your uh your clawbot [ __ ] Yeah. Dow and the chemical names. What about wheat and all that? Yeah, those have gone up again.
Those spreads are just wild. What time is it? It's only been five minutes. Give him a little bit. Levit getting Iran's nuclear fuel as an option on the table. Arc high ticker again. Meta is even starting to climb up here a little bit. silver should again the dollar is kind of what's getting in the way but it does like I keep telling you I'd encourage you to look ahead because if this turns into a longer conflict that's going to change the uh the dynamic of how things are going to get affected and move all right I got one but I don't like it but maybe that's a good Fine, but not a recommendation.
They're not high quality. I mean, one one move in the next 10 minutes changes all those, so be careful with those. I'd ideally want something near the other range of the uh of Friday. So, yeah, but for now, there's at least some that are still red. Yep. All right. Googly woogly. Yeah, dude. Tesla's been leading from the morning.
They were going very good. Oh, they didn't even move that much on that. Uh, Qatar offloads five LNG slots for unloading storage and reclassification at Belgr Belgium Zeb Bruge terminal for April. How big is today with Powell? Pretty big. I mean, in a weird way, he might it might be boring, but given all of the tension right now, he's probably going to be a little bit more exciting than not.
And then again, what he says and what he both says as well as what the dot plot says and the SCP what it kind of hints at for oil and inflation. That's kind of going to be the main story today. Man, these China spreads are [ __ ] Uh Baba went back to green. Oh, it is the week of March 20th. PDNY down 10 from open.
Dude, I swear it does that one every time. Yeah, they were up 10. They gave Remember that thing was just at 11 or 10 bucks and then it sold off. But yeah, they got the Navy contract. Sock is up. Uh Trump admin expected to issue waiver of Jones Act shipping regulation as soon as Wednesday, sources say.
So the Jones Act news is coming in now. Again, like I said, watch some of the staples on that. remember last time Walmart and all of that but again even like LNG UNNG uh they would also get impacted by the Jones Act stuff and that's well the big the first sign of the war price the PPI today was terrible.
So I mean remember a month ago you had a and this is part of the Fed today uh that you got to kind of think for the uh mindset and the mentality of the Fed and what to expect. You had a bad jobs report, a really bad jobs report what, two weeks ago, three weeks ago. And then now even coming into today, the PPI, the headline, that's the one that really ripped through.
But the core, that one wasn't as bad. But then again, headline, food, energy, that's kind of just highlighting uh, you know, what the impact of this is going to be. That's why I was telling you guys, even on the last CPI, CPI is delayed by a month. So like all that $100 oil, you weren't going to see it in the data, but the uh the PPI was able to show that one up a little bit.
Core weave fill in the gap. CLSK, where's the Irons and the Nibbus of the world again. Software wasn't down too much, but actually software is back to break even. And then Net, I don't know if NET and Fastly, I don't know if they they should be benefiting off the China hype. Those are two kind of in their own little world right now.
And then yeah, sock above 18, what I think you need it to go uh you need 1950. That's where it starts to get crazier and squeezier again. That same news actually from the last couple days. That one hasn't changed too hard. Apple's going Apple's kind of what's holding you up right now. So Apple gapped down like what just under a percent and then that's already back up here in 5 minutes.
Nvidia is barely red. I know Tesla, Google's literally running into the high. So, you're kind of doing the MAG 7 effect again. Those are starting to lead you right now. And then you're only down by.18.2. NASDAQ is starting to break away a little bit. Uh they're only down by 08.9. All right. Now, all of those plays are in the red.
I should have waited two minutes. Now, you could get all of those for lower docu. They weren't bad. They announced 2 billion buyback. Some other stuff. banks now, or at least Bank of America is going straight up. I don't know if they're at an event. That kind of looks uh like it's doing its own thing.
Let's see. Bank of America. And then a couple of the higher flying China ones, those small I didn't take any of them, but they're coming down. And then BYU keeps going. Those premiums just suck. Korea. So again, Korea was up 5% yesterday or last night and then after this little attack thing, they got smoked.
Healthcare could be part of the midterms. I mean, just not to mention, it's not like the earnings have gone good. And then again, the whole cost pressures, you know, oil and other stuff happening. I mean, it factors into some of the healthcare. As odd as that may sound, path is climbing. Software names aren't doing too bad.
So again, IGV is in the green, Fastly, Net, and then a few others. But and then even some big tech is going straight up. Light uh Light, Coheris, all those other ones. Who's the other one? A AOI. Yeah, these they had a conference yesterday, uh or like this morning, a LA fiber conference. PayPal on the high.
a bibsy. Yeah, staples are still down. Donald Trump waves Jones Act in bid to curb higher fuel prices. I don't know if he's confir I don't know if that's getting confirmed right now or if that's from the first headline. So again, they were just saying sources say uh he's going to curb the Jones Act.
I'm double checking. Yeah, he hasn't put it out yet, but at least it's not on True Social. But yeah, they're saying Jones Act. That might be something. Waiver applies to oil, gas, fertilizer, and coal. So, that wouldn't benefit the staples then. See, watch if uh UNNG and any of the fertilizer fertilizer plays are moving on that.
So, again, yeah, NTR just got smoked and I don't know if that's part of it or not. And then, yeah, some of the uh food plays came down. Oil's still going up. So yeah, watch out for that. I still I don't have that confirmed, but it's saying that the that he waved it. So first one a couple minutes ago said rumor, but now this one's speaking more actively.
All right. Well, yeah, if you waited a couple more minutes, you would have got a way better deal, but they're back up now. [snorts] Snap, docu on the high. Uh airlines are still going up, too. So again, those travel names I don't that might be the NASDAQ right now. I think that was all the big tech.
Yeah, QQQ coming down too. So again, NTR fertilizer plays did react so far. Again, I thought the staples would have benefited from the Jones Act, but if it's only related to the gas and energy, it's going to play out. USO and BNO on the high now. Korea, Merc. Yeah. Airlines still keep going up, but they're just barely either in the green or at break even.
And then Dow's down by 04, Russell's down 6, D SPY.3, and then NASDAQ 2. So now they're all just off off by like a tenth of a percent. Yeah, Baba came down. Where's BYU? BU's still holding. Bank of Canada interest rate at 225 versus 225 again. Oil's up 2 and a half. We're only down by.3. A art. It looks like a biotech.
I don't know what this one is. Artello bio. It was already actually up pre-market. That might be a FDA. BBG is the source on the latest one. So, yeah, we're going to need confirmation of it, but it seems like some reaction. Yeah, Artello has fully funded uh initiated fully funded uh study with Belfast Health.
Path on the high ticker. Unity as well too actually. Path is up two and a half. IGV is on the damn high right now. IGV and airlines and then banks too. City. So City and Bank of America already gone green. XLF is barely red. Oil's still climbing up. You are right at VWAP again. NASDAQ is probably giving you the most like minute-by-minute moves.
The Dow just keeps getting worse. And then SPY is right in the middle of all that again. Alkines are coming up. Expedia. Are they holding the 8% move from yesterday? Kind of. They pretty much like halfway filled it. All right. Spies coming back up. Airbnb and travel's already going up there, too. Let's see.
Oh h why so expense jets adab I forgot about adab is adab still been going up I hit a small low but yeah That's still almost 10 bucks off the low. Netflix, Kimberly, Quality, they're down. Uh, who else? Yes, all staples are down one, too. So, I was thinking the Jones Act was going to benefit some of the uh non oil and energy companies, but no, if they're going to limit it, but yeah, I do think uh once we uh find out the economic impacts of all this, but if this is a shock, I think those are going to rip violently.
But in the meantime, you have a deal. I hope you use it. Am Diesel and Abby Abby is on the low. Abby is getting crushed. Oh, where's Mike? Micron has earnings. They had a crazy move yesterday. KKR and Apollo. So, even the private credit again, a lot of finance is actually waking up right now. And now workday that ties into it.
And then constellation. So energy XLE names are barely up, but a couple of them are moving. And then again, like finance, banks, all of those types, those are actually catching a bid. Yeah, bro. KR's up two and a half. Remember yesterday all that I think that went up another three to five yesterday.
That's part of the whole private credit, not systemic. A cam high low ticker is actually kind of balanced. A Ramco evacuates Samref refinery after Iran warning. Okay, so another baby high on oil. It's just ticking up slight. It feels like one of those days from like last week or so where again you're like making the stairstepper on oil.
It's not like going down. Market still has kind of the ability to ignore it. But yeah, just oil just keeps ticking up. It'll hit a high. You're getting some of these headlines and then it's working through. Is Kimberly at 52 week low? Didn't it hit it last week or No, that was right before. So 96. Gulf producers evacuate multiple sites after Iran warnings.
So again, an oil I think tick 98 on the futures. JPM and Goldman on the high now. Yeah, those are fresh, too. So, again, banks are right at the cusp. They should be going green. Yeah, they're down by 003. IGV higher for longer. We're just not going to know till end of the month pretty much. That's why like what Powell says today, that's going to you'll that could change a lot because if the Fed is just if the Fed wants to insist on that, then that's going to freak people out.
But yeah, it still comes down to the oil curve is going to change more towards the end of the month. End of the month, beginning of April. That's when we're going to really know. And that's something I would tell all of you. Just keep looking ahead for economic impact. Right now, it's all still a shock, but if a shock turns into impact on the economy, that's where things are going to move slower.
That's kind of what the last couple of days showed. Uh, but then we're going to have to uh yeah, you're just going to have to juggle the headlines, be a little patient, but you should know. I mean, within the next like week or two or I guess two weeks tops, you'll have a much more clearer picture. And then that's where people I think are going to reposition.
and it's gonna it's going to move slower, but then once it starts affecting the economy and now we're worried about those factors, that's where it changes. Oil going up again. All right, been here for just less than 30 minutes. So you're just whole, you're literally barely above the open.3 again. Dow actually got a little bit of a bid on that.
Russell's the one that's bad, but now you're kind of doing the whole correlated thing again. A lot of a lot of everything is matched again. Oil's taking another one. Uh the drone stocks are going on the low. So I'd say today's diff. I mean, if we do start to energy freak out and all of that [ __ ] uh the difference is that today you don't have financials tweaking out.
you don't have the same uh credit worries that you were dealing with about a week or two ago. It doesn't mean they don't exist, but the market is just not really uh reacting. The market hasn't crashed. Well, yeah, that's what we were talking about a couple days ago. That's kind of the problem of why the market is so uh is so resilient because even though you've had the shock and again you could start to think ahead and you could either be bullish or or worried about it but fact of the matter is it's not like you've been offered even a big enough discount to be contrarian and that's kind of what makes this a little weird but that's also why I'm saying you know so everybody has their opinion on it.
I mean, oil is essentially the more crowded trade right now, but I do think that if if the war ended tomorrow, not saying that's going to happen, but if the war ended tomorrow, I don't even think the market would go up that much. Just and that's kind of what you get for having the strength. You get a little bit of this strength now.
People kind of looking ahead in a certain way. It didn't drop a lot. That's why it's like even if this war ended tomorrow, you would probably get one quick pop and then it would level out and it really wouldn't even be that crazy. So, we are still stuck in that box. Again, this is the craziest part about all of it.
I think this is the most fascinating. You are right where you were around November. I mean, arguably even coming into the beginning of the year, you know, you had that pop to start the year, but give or take, you know, five days ahead of the of the new year, you were trading around this range, but you have been in the same six uh six to eight month block.
Actually, do you guys want to see something? I could show you something. I don't know if you'd want to see it. Don't get scared, but it plays out too with a couple of the things at hand. I have a pretty picture for you if it loads. So, yeah, the blue line is September 24th to May 25th. end of end of 24 leading into the liberation day and then this is September 1st to right now.
So you're actually the the deja vu is very uh very very similar. So that's why even then too it's like if we kind of brush things off for the next like week or two and then you lead to a major escalation and then you get that could be where it culminates. Otherwise, you know, it's like we're at a point where we're either going to break out from this or follow it.
But then again, you know, where 2025 ended. Uh but yeah, like it's it's following eerily similar to how last year played out. The difference is you don't have everyone, you know, that was them worrying about tariffs, people getting very dramatic about the pricing, and then you had Donald Trump come in with Liberation Day, which I don't know if you guys remember.
I mean, Liberation Day seemed kind of as reckless as all of this, you know, where again people like, "What the hell is going on? Why is this happening? This seems like a crazy move." Remember when we first saw the tariffs on liberation day? We were like, "Yo, bro, that's a that's a bomb. That's a He wanted 100 180% tariffs on China, stuff like that." Like that.
Would that cause that effect? Yeah. White House US issues 60-day waiver of Jones Act shipping law. I think that is getting confirmed. Let's see. Uh I think you'll get more of a reaction when Trump says it, but it does look like it is limited into what it's going to affect. So yeah, Jones Act, which again, I mean, is also every time just like the uh uh what's it called?
The reserves. All of these little actions confirm something. They confirm a response. I mean, again, why do you why are you bringing out band-aids? Trump might bring tariff talks. There's actually a meeting with Japan tomorrow. So, and that one's going to be interesting because I think he's going to try to get Japan to uh to uh what's it called?
To support with the straight, but then it's going to be difficult for Japan to do so. But then again, Tai Taichi, she low-key loves Trump. So, but that that's going to be tomorrow in the midst of all this. Again, we got a long day ahead. You got Jones Act now. Couple of hours ago, you got the first gas infrastructure.
Iran is already saying they're going to attack again uh for they said all oil infrastructure is on the table now. And then you already got some of those evacuation. So, we still got to see for that for the next couple of hours. And then before you know it, my friends, uh we are going to be dealing with uh Jerome F.
Powell, the mother in Fetchair. Russian Foreign Ministry. We call on all all parties to immediately cease hostilities. You listen 5 years when your line was free99. You come a long way with your program. You're an old man, too. You got a You got a law term. Well, thank you, man. I'm I'm I'm impressed by you being impressed.
You know, these young these young guys just yell at me now. They say, "Where's where's the damn play? Just give me the damn play." I don't I don't care geopolitical, geopolitic geometry. So, man, I appreciate you. It is still free.99. I say, you know, we implemented the ACS system, you know, that way if you really want super super fast, you got to prepare and plan for it.
Otherwise, I do hope people are getting long-term monthly being aware UVXY on the high right now and NIBS. So, again, VIX is on the high right at open. You are either going to bounce or you are going to dump. I think the uh PPI numbers were bad uh very high and then that highlights uh again some of this high energy already uh rolling through on one of the earlier sets of data here.
Yeah, I think the difference with the uh I think a lot of people thought that the uh I think they thought that you were going to get a uh a Jones Act that would be more fraud for everything. That's why I was thinking Staples and some of the other companies. But uh at the same time, if it it seems like it's only going to be energy related, which again, most of the Jones Act, it is why it's why ships load and and dock at certain places where deliveries and loadings are at certain places and times.
Let's see. Iran gas flows to Iraq halted following attack on Par's gas field. Senior Iraqi officials tell Reuters. Silver and gold. Nvidia even popped up too. Tesla's really going honest. Tesla's up by 0.9 but like straight up. They're back to pre-market. WMC, watch if uh real estate stocks start going.
They shouldn't, but if you know, we have had one of these days where real a couple real estate names did their own thing. Owl and Sand. Yeah, dude. KKR and Apollo still up. I think financials are strong. That's one of the uh one of the big differences here is that I do believe that we are uh you're not getting the same bank the bank exposure pressure that we had on the last two weeks which again I don't think the bank stuff is over but at the same time you know the whole not systemic that's that's calmed a lot of things down.
Uh where's Bitcoin? I know Bitcoin's down. A couple of those Bitcoin miners uh miners are going up. And then Nibbus, they're coming back up too. They've had a lot of headlines and volatility. Bank of America's up one almost. Yeah. Jeez. Again, you just had the that little UVXY move. SPY bounced up and now you're back to the same spot.
Durable goods came in at 0 versus 0. Factory orders 0.1 versus estimate of 0.1. And then again, they're reiterating the Jones Act stuff. So again, the White House confirmation is here within the last couple of minutes. [snorts] NVT sock came down a little bit. You hit 98. Where does this put us price-wise?
Oh, that sucks. Just a couple days ago, we kind of topped out at 98. That's it. I mean, you either go 98, otherwise you're going to go to 100. That's kind of how it's played out every time. So again, last time we hit 98, we went straight through to 120. Right when you fell from 98, it dumped. You got right back up.
You climbed. Took three days to get there. But once you broke 98, you hit 100 again. So 98 might be kind of the line in the sand. Even though today was new escalation with the gas field. So it's either going to if it's going to indicate more escalation above 98 into 100 and vice versa. Russian Putin aid conflict in the Middle East will set global trade and economic system back by years.
Tesla Model Y the top selling car in the world. Is that I don't know. It could also be gas. I mean don't underestimate it, bro. There was a time in the market and it happened even in 2021 uh because uh you uh like anytime gas prices go crazy like EV stocks go up which is kind of wild. You're getting a bigger candle there.
I don't know if that was a UVXY pump fake but you're like you're right back into open. I mean nothing crazy so far. 0.5 on the Dow and then SPY and NASDAQ are matched up at.3. So correlation just kind of seems to be hitting value more. I think you could blame the banks for holding up. Adab on the on the low low ticker did pick up on 32nd and one minute.
It must be nice for Eevee. I know. Like dude, I think the Cybert truck cuz I don't get free charging on the Cyber Truck, but we got it charged up yesterday. It was two bucks. I don't know how. So at a supercharger it was two bucks. Russia may consider military convoys for merchant ships. IFX, you could be responding on that because I don't know how that's going to play out.
And then you have Arab states egging on US to continue strikes to [ __ ] Tran so it could never attack anyone again. Europe and China and Russia are calling for immediate ceasefire. Watch oil. Russia is saying they may consider military convoys for ships. Are the Russians going to help out? Are. But then I don't know if that'll be good or bad because if the Russians try to help out and now they're in the straight of Hormise now now you run the risk of hitting a Russian ship and then that starts a whole different conflict.
So that's coming out now. I don't know how confirmed that is, but again you're tweaking a little bit. Oil even calmed down from that, but it's coming from IFX. Russia may consider military convoys from merchant ships. Iran regime appears to be intact but largely degraded by military operation. Director of national intelligence u gabard.
Iran and proxies remain completely remain capable of attacking US and allied interest in Middle East. She tells Senate if Iranian regime survives it will begin year-long effort to rebuild missile and drone. Nuclear enrichment was obliterated in June strikes. US has seen no effort to rebuild Iran enrichment capability.
WMC. Uh yeah, that's what I've been saying it for about like a year. Uh you know, even when it went up, it was nice because we only have this one in Colt Sister, but like people were asking me and I was saying I I like Ry Tay a lot better now, even though we own both because of the Red Fin, but I just I didn't like their balance sheet.
Uh the way they were operating it and then some of their like leverage ratios and like how they've been loaning the money. They're pretty overlevered and I I just didn't like it. fastly going up. IDF struck Hezbollah controlled gas stations in Lebanon. So, Israel again is attacking gas infrastructure.
So, again, that's the new part of today. The fact they attacked the gas field, but this I what was it last week, bro? last week or two weeks ago. I remember coming here in the morning and I was like, we thought Iran would attack the energy infrastructure or their own and then it ended up being Israel to kind of start it.
So, yeah, man. Kind of crazy. T Thank you for the coffee. I only got Carbos on deck. I'm kind of down for a coffee. I got some good carbo in the morning. It's going to be a big day. It's already a big day. It's, you know, oh, you're at the open. Oh, the headlines, you know. Oh, and then Oil's doing the stairstepper.
But I was already excited for Powell. So, I do think Powell is going to, you know, and it's our last Powell, man. You know, there may be a chance we get Powell again depending on how the confirmation and everything plays out. But yeah, man. This is it. It's going to be our It's going to be our last one.
I've watched every Powell for the last eight years. Uh, zero exaggeration. I don't think I've ever missed the POW. Long-term all the way, baby. Long-term monthly. That's the beauty of I mean, again, I still think the midterm money glitch uh what's going to happen with the midterms, that's going to apply very, very well.
Uh, and above all else, that's why like right now, this is a shock. Even if it impacts the economy, I mean, last time we had a shock that impacted the economy, it led to some of the best pickups for the long term. So, I'm not too worried. China. Uh, demand for raw materials likely to drive continued out.
This is Tulsi Gabbard. I don't know if you guys want to hear Gabbard. All of her comments are hitting the wire. This be a warning to those who wish America harm. We leave no stone unturned and there's no one or no thing close to you that might not betray you. Today's hearing is an opportunity for the American people to hear an unvarnished and unbiased account of the remaining threats we face.
From communist China, North Korea and Russia to the east to narot terrorist cartels here at home. These threats truly do span the globe. We'll come back to that. Iran tims agency citing Iran oil ministry. Some of the infrastructure at South Par damaged. No ind no injuries reported. Trump already made a comment about PAL this morning.
He did call him too late again. I think everyone's ignoring the Dude, Trump had a truth social this morning talking about finishing off Iran and letting the people who actually use the straight deal with the straight. That one was kind of wild. But everybody was focused on the gas field news. Yeah, North Korea strengthening with Russia and then Russia has maintained upper hand in war in Ukraine likely to continue fighting.
Gabbard, I watched some of Bernanki. I was pretty young still or not Bernanki. Uh Greenspan. No, no, no. Bernanki. Yeah, Bernanki is an idiot. So, Greenspan was uh early. I was still alive for Greenspan, but I don't know what where I was at in terms of consciousness. It might be a lit briefing for now.
I want to give it a couple I mean we're just pretty much going to sit and wait for the next uh Iran headline and then also some of the movement. But you got stuff holding today was an escalation. Oil's up. The markets reacting. You just have different parts that are kind of holding up and not compared to the last couple weeks.
So like I'm saying, I really think the standout is financials. You know, last time we had this volatility with the war. or I mean it has been um it's just been financials have just been getting decimated. So that holding up is going to help out a lot. And then tech isn't bad. I mean damn chips are coming up sock.
Yeah. Why is AMD going straight up? Yeah, AMD Dizzle they kind of is that unique? No. Nvidia made a move too. Micron's coming up and WDC. All the chips are actually even Korea is trying to get back up there. PayPal on the low mob. Isn't mob uh is that China or Warstock? Remember that one moved yesterday.
Tam NVO. Oh, Tel Aviv Tech. Yeah, Intel's not moving. AMD and uh Nvidia and then the other chip makers are going. All right. Spy is doing. Dude, you're This is just right where that UVX spike came from. But you've just done nothing. You just bounced back and forth. MSM Jcap short report. We'll see. It's been about 30 40 minutes.
So this is usually where some of the action happens. Oil's still up doing the stairstepper. Banks did come down. IGV some of the stuff holding did calm down here a little bit. I mean you got Nvidia holding you up. And then let's see. Appal Pakistan to pause strikes against Afghanistan. Terrar says links pause to volatility.
I don't know what that is. [snorts] A lot of biotechs actually moving. All right. Couple low takers picking up. more staples are dumping and then the uh high ticket again. Fastly is kind of in its league of its own and the China names are still actually doing decent too. All right. Well, spies approaching the low of the day.
Chop and tail pow just going to depend on oil in the next headline. I would have uh been more subscribed to that idea if we didn't get this escalation in the morning. But I think first half of the day is going to be what you guys saw last week or so. Just the war back and forth conflict. Again, you do have the the chop is being caused by Mag 7.
Uh but yeah, that's why everything else is going to be uh I still think you're going to have to wait to see what Iran does or doesn't do. Okay. Well, into low of the day. A couple consumer names on the low. Surprising those premium, if you bought the other one, they would have held up, but those premiums aren't too [ __ ] I thought they'd be washed by now.
They're still in the game. Well, you are hitting a new low, so those are coming back to life. Well, well, well. All right, I'm going to go get me a car. These election ballots. Thank you. And voting machine records in Fton County, Georgia. A raid tied to an election that the president lost 6 years ago.
Too spies coming down. When the warrant supporting the raid was unsealed, it showed something deeply troubling. There was no foreign connection to justify the involvement of our nation's top spy. Instead, the predicate for the warrant was a slop of debunked conspiracy theories that had already been rejected repeatedly by courts, by independent investigators, and by even by Georgia's own Republican Secretary of State.
Yet the nation's top intelligence officer official was personally involved in this operation. This raises one very serious question. If the intelligence community is not being deployed to mobilize to mobilize against foreign threats, why is it being deployed at all on a domestic issue? The DNI's appearance at this raid, as well as her involvement in seing seizing voting machines from Puerto Rico, suggests something that should also alarm every American.
I believe an organized effort to misuse her national security powers to interfere in domestic politics and potentially provide a pretext for the president's unconstitutional efforts to seize control of the upcoming elections. Don't take my word for it. The president has repeatedly pushed for the nationalization of our elections, calling for federal government to override the state election laws and quote, "take over voting while continuing to make false statements about election fraud.
And we have heard troubling rhetoric from senior officials that reinforce these concerns." As former Homeland Security Secretary Christian Nome said publicly, "We've been, and this is a quote, we've been proactive trying to make sure we have the right people voting, electing the right leaders to lead this country.
At the same time, the administration has brought into government individuals promoting conspiracy theories about our elections. the so-called White House director of election security and integrity. Kurt Olsson played a key role in effortuch the results of the 2020 election. Think he's talking. Now, Mr.
Olsson holds a position inside the federal government. All right. Thank you. Thank you. This will be our commercial breaks again. Her first comments kept hitting the wire, but she's not talking. Iran President confirms intelligence minister Katib killed. All right, oil above 98. So, like I'm saying here, uh it's either going to be doing it slow, but otherwise, every other time we've kind of climbed above 98, it's been a straight shot to 100.
So, I don't I don't know. I think you're going to need a little bit more or we're going to find out before then. uh again anytime before PAL if we get an update fastly still going crawl there's still names on the high but low ticker [clears throat] has been more active over that last 5 minutes that is why you hit a new low VIX again at the high so VIX is climbing I mean you know you know the routine last time it did it we did end up going lower it just stalled by like 10 minutes yeah oil prices at 150 in the Persian Gulf again even in Asia they're up that's why some people some people have gone and they're like, "Okay, oil should be a lot higher." But you got to think about it.
Some of these places that's where that's where Trump was telling that implication of uh let the people who use this straight deal with it. So again, you guys have energy in America, but there is a you know like some of the places in Asia that are more reliant on the imports, their energy is already substantially higher.
So that's why it's like if this is just a shock, a lot of these will come down. But if not then that's where we start to repric in both the domestic and world that starts to change a lot more any tin foil for today. Uh, I do have a tin foil, but it's the tin foil from last time, but then like uh the uh it just it all depends on Powell and it didn't happen last time.
So, is Powell going to uh because you gota like I'm saying Powell last time with the war in Ukraine and Russia that's where partly transitory came from if you guys recall but he was saying transitory for supply chain and then the war happened and then before you knew it they were like okay transitory took him a while to admit they they don't they don't like saying the t-word but essentially if Powell and the Fed want to [ __ ] things up today they could really just hammer They could be terrified of this oil shock.
And if they start if they start telling you it's not an oil shock, I mean, let me put it this way. Powell and the Fed today, they could repric this whole entire conflict if they wanted to. Uh again, it would still take time, but if now you have the Fed kind of from a position of authority telling you this is going to be longlasting and we got to we got to prepare, that would be terrible.
It could again the pretty much Fed and Powell they could spite Trump and do a lot of things today if they really wanted to at the cost of uh some of the other policy and impacts but what would that all lead to? Do any of you know that's the next part of the tin. It's not even the tin. It's the low r it's the low probability high risk scenario for today in the Fed.
So we we'll go over it uh too when we get ahead of the uh the Fed meeting. But yeah, there is a there is a low probability high-risk event today if it all somehow happened. Yes, if they start talking rate hikes. So, right now, no matter what this [ __ ] has done so far, nobody's talking rate hikes. Nobody on the Fed, even as crazy as they are, none of them are uh none of them are implying rate cuts.
It's really an issue of one rate cut this year, one rate cut next year. It's the lack of rate cuts is what everybody's pricing in. But then if they want to play that game and be like, "Yo, it's going to be terrible. It's going to be this, it's going to be that, it's going to be longlasting." Then you just turn that into a uh now it's going to be more about uh if they are really worried, they're going they could bring up rate hikes.
And if that that would be the first time you've heard rate hikes from the Fed in a while. And that would be the I think that would be the bomb of today. So it's low probability. It's not expected because right now on the dot plot, not one person on the Fed is really implying that we would have a rate hike.
But if this changes and if they see something we don't see and then they start, you know, discussing how energy inflation and it's going to be longlasting, that that would be the ultimate worst case scenario for today. Forget Powell. Is Wars gonna cut into this? I don't know. We have no idea about Worsh.
All I know more about Worsh's family, what he's invested in, and his past damn Bilderberg. But I don't know what we haven't heard from him. I don't even know his full personality. Anything we know about him was like 10, 15 years ago. So yeah, it's kind of odd. Boeing, where's Bradley? Yeah, Boeing's coming down yet from to that level yesterday.
But here's the thing. The last time The last time you were in a conflict, there was even some global problems, war, all of that. HE WAS SCARED. OH, THERE'S [screaming] BRADLEY. DOG. BRADLEY. I don't even know if Bradley heard this cuz the delay. Are you kidding me? Oh, HORN. OH, MAN. I feel a connection.
I don't know. I don't know if I'm taking Oh, that's amazing. Bradley, Frizle, and the peach, baby. I knew. I felt it. Said, "Wow, where's Bradley?" And he shows up, dude. Are you kidding me? Bradley is more reliable than NATO. I feel like Donald Trump is jealous now. I say I Josh says Bradley, he shows up.
He shows up every day. Every day. I can't I can't even get NATO to show up. This is [ __ ] Oh my goodness. God bless you, Peach Nation. That's amazing, bro. That's Bro, Bradley Frizzle, are you ready, bro? Bradley, that's it, bro. We're we're we're winding down our our Jerome Powell meetings, man. Bradley Bradley's been there.
Everyone with me. Oh, man. That's crazy. You never cut into an oil shock. I dude I mean it's cra That's the one thing I was like I don't know man. Uh your boy's kind of uh Trump's kind of wild for insinuating that we should cut. I'd kind of want to see it but yeah that'd be a bad idea. Colonovic bear comments on Micron Sandis WDC.
You heard it a few say bro. So I'm telling you bro I said it. I just the the the air, the movement, the Boeing. I can't believe it. I can't believe that's I'm telling you if NATO operated like Bradley, this war would have been done last week. I tell you, that's amazing. I don't It's a He's a good guy.
He's a good guy. Reliable. That's hard to come by nowadays. Okay. I tell you, it's not not easy. Not easy at all. Amen. Oh, the uh I was going to say something and then I'm just I'm just shocked by the consistency, you know, that happens. But yeah, bro, it's uh Oh, Wars. So, in 2008, that's where like he made his like big mistake.
He was one of the only people that when you were getting like deflation and the market was just getting wrecked, he was one of the people that was worried about inflation. So he was wrong. His timing I have a chart somewhere actually. When did he get nominated? Was that uh beginning? That was beginning of the year.
I have the chart of it. But essentially when Wars uh when Wars back in the day, he was more along the lines of uh he was scared about what was going to happen next. So even though things were dumping Yeah, here it is. So yeah. So literally unemployment was just [ __ ] cratering and then uh the inflation was still here and then unemployment was rocketing and then inflation and then it was it was a bad situation like literally everything was collapsing but he was very late to the party.
So literally when when unemployment was over 8%. Worsh was still worried about inflation even though the core PCE pretty much got cut in half. So this is this is what people remember about Worsh. That's why like you're asking me is he going to cut into this? I don't know. Uh I again that was a long time ago.
We haven't heard from him in a while. But yeah, it's uh it's still one of those things where if he plays his his hand like last time, it would play out a little different. Uh Powell has served for eight years. I mean, I've literally I've watched him like what, six or eight times a year for the last eight years.
It's [ __ ] crazy. He was like 25 years old back then. Yeah. So, I feel him, bro. Cuz like when I was like 23, 25, I felt differently about government debt. Now I'm a [ __ ] boomer. So he could be different. He could be very, very different. All right, we're going a little lower. It's funny. SPY's going more now.
You're back to Is this lower than pre-market? Yeah, this is a pre-market low. So, yeah, you're below where we were that whole morning there. Okay, those plays went up 30% now. Kind of moving slow though. City forecast brand 110 120. All right, I got out of them. I got like 30 something almost 40%. I just again you would have made the [ __ ] 100 if you waited two minutes.
We'll double dip again before Powell. Tell me why do we sell oil yet? What do you mean? Actually, I don't know if the reserves have hit yet. Uh, but in general, I mean, oil I do the one thing I don't like about oil right now and it's like genuinely everybody thinks it's going to go crazy. That's the problem.
It's a very very crowded trade right now. Actually, if you got the one closer to the money, you actually did way better on that play. So, it wasn't bad. We just I didn't optimize it. I could have done better on that, but I'm not mad about a gain. But yeah, that's kind of the uh that's kind of the problem.
is that everybody is everybody thinks it's going to go up. That's why I think Powell today is so interesting because and that's where people might get shocked. Uh because Powell will probably acknowledge the oil inflation impact but Powell's not going to acknowledge it to the same degree that people think it's going to go to.
That that's kind of the idea right now. more people. Wall Street is overcrowded on it. Retail is overcrowded on it. And people are just because of how fast it went. Even though some of the escalations in the beginning were kind of minimal just with how fast it went, people were really like, "Yo, this is it got to 100 real quick.
So people were in that's why numbers like 120, 140, 150 keep getting thrown around. I mean, you do have it in the importers. they they are paying more, but I think Powell is going to acknowledge the high oil, but it's just not going to be as high as everybody thinks. And then again, last time 2022, most of the oil shocks after the big spike and then once everybody goes from it's not going to happen to everyone's like it's going to happen, that's where things start to slow down.
You got energy stocks coming out. Crude oil 6.15 million barrels. I don't know what the estimates are. Gasoline down 5.4 million estimate was minus.5. So crude oil inventories rocketed up 6.5 million versus uh draw of 1.5 and then uh Cushing 944 but gas inventories were pretty bad. Gas inventories were expected to go 2 million at max.
They drew down 5.5 million and then distillates minus 2.5 million estimate was minus5. So oil might move a little bit on that. I know. Yeah, just like the silver trade for real now. Silver was a lot different cuz it just it wasn't conflict. Silver although they moved very similarly 120 then back to 70 80 you know it's like that silver was just nothing.
Silver was China the buildout the AI demand all those other things. But yeah, uh right when people were willing to do that, NATO, uh NATO rut says they're in touch with many allies on the straight of Hormis. Well, that's the thing. I don't know. I mean, people just think of I I have both sides of the equation here because I do think cuz like I'm telling you, everybody is so crowded on oil right now.
Uh, but I don't know if it's a bad thing. But then on the reverse, this is what I keep saying. I don't know if people are acknowledging it, but if the war ended tomorrow, I don't think the market is going to go up that I think it will have just like, you know, by the fifth or sixth tariff announcement last year, right?
And they would announce a deal or something. You'll get like a little spy pop and then it'll level out and then everybody will go back to normal. I think oil will move and oil will be the one that moves on on everything going on, but I don't think the market is going to necessarily uh I don't think you're going to get crazy moves.
And that's why so it's like in the same respect where oil may be limited uh as it gets crowded and we're getting later into this unless again unless this turns into a full-blown 1970s economic problem, that's a different scenario. But it's like the same strength we've gotten or the slowness to both sides.
I think it's going to hit negatively even at a resolution. You're not going to get a crazy pop. You're not going to get you'll get relief from oil, but I don't think it's going to release anything too nuts on the uh the market itself. Sentcom, US has struck more than 78 targets in Iran. And then IDF says they detect more targets from Iran.
Do I think the private credit issues are systemic? I think you're in the middle. I don't know if it's systemic, but I do think it's bigger than than expected or feared right now or not. I don't know if fear fear is easy to move, but I do think it's a little bit more broader than we think. I don't I think you're you're not you'll be insulated from some of the bigger banks.
I don't think they're going to get hit by it, but I do think there's a lot of shitty corporate credit out there. Uh especially with this last like AI cycle and how the funding all played out. Sprouts again. Couple of tanker stocks on the high. Yep, I got clapped. I'm back. I'm back. Welcome back. Welcome back.
Welcome back. It's one of those days, YouTube. One of those days, bro. Come on. Amazon earnings. Uh, I think it's just all going to boil down to cloud and AWS. Are we already getting close to Amazon earnings? Yeah, in a month. Holy [ __ ] I feel like we just ended earnings. And then I long term. Okay, Brent is on the high.
Oil just ticked the high 984. Again, it's doing it slow, but like I'm saying, it's either march to 100 or we go or that's it. It has to stop at 98. Right. You're doing the stairstepper again. NATO general rut allies are discussing collectively how the straight of hormop. That's a positive comment. I mean, but then again, they could be discussing it and it may not lead to anything.
Or they'll be like, "Yes, we would like Trump to do it and we don't to do." Thank you. Yeah, today will be the last uh dot plot. I think you might get one more POW. And there's a there's a couple scenarios where he might he will still show up on the dot plot in the future if he stays on with the Fed.
Uh but then also at the same time, he's going to uh he just won't be the Fed chair anymore. That's going to be the next battle is uh how easy. I mean, now that the case is over, it should be easy. But yeah, it just depends on what happens with the nomination or the appointing of Mr. Worsh or confirmation, excuse me.
30 million jobs are tied in with PE. Several hundred zombie companies could fail. And are you overreacting? I mean, it just depends who has the exposure. I'm actually not even uh like technically on paper, the exposure, you could calculate it all, but the thing I'm worried about with private credit is what we saw with that one European bank or MF, the UK one, was that the double and triple commitments.
That's the [ __ ] we don't know about. That's even what happened with like some of the first brand stuff. Uh and then again it's like one if the companies perform bad that will affect credit and that's what we saw with first brands the hotels and some of the other uh remodel what was it Riv or whatever uh Rivik or I forgot the name already uh but it's like that but then like what we saw with one of these private loan funds there was double and triple commitments.
So on on the books and on the exposure it's like $3 billion. It's not that much. Again, it's assuming you're a credit fund and the people loaning it, they they have, you know, underwriting. They know what they're getting exposed to. They could only loan a certain amount that it's bearable. You could determine what you will get exposed to.
But then if these guys are taking that committing three billions of loans just like 2008 and then they're taking that 3 billion of loan and then making another commitment on top of that and using that as collateral to get another three billion and then going to five other banks and five other different groups and getting, you know, turning a $3 billion exposure into $20 billion.
That's the problem that I think that we don't know about. And like I'm saying, I don't I think we're in the middle. I don't think it's systemic. I think some people will be void of it. Uh you're not going to see it impacts a lot of financial companies, but then there is still stuff that I think you're it's not a it's not a non-issue.
And then it's also not the end of the world. But there is something in the middle there that I I don't think we could really put our finger on it right now. The longer you ride the wrong train, the more expensive it is to go home. Tell them legal. Thank you, my friend. Thank you for all your support, dog.
Are you kidding me? Oh, no. That good line. The longer you ride the wrong train, the more expensive it is to go home. Mhm. The case is not dropped. DOJ's appealing it. Tillis will not move forward till it's dropped. Really? I mean, I thought for now they might take the immunity thing and be like, "Okay." But yeah, if the appeal takes long, that that's going to make it complicated.
Yes, exactly. The bets on the bets. Gabbard. Iran could develop a viable ICBM by 2035 if they chose to do so. Again, you're getting more Gabbard comments. to air raid sirens in Bahrain and then US Gulf uh coast crude stockpiles rose to the highest since June 24 on real estate many sellers low buyers high rates uh the outlook for one to two years uh this vets say shout out to uncle shout out to vets baby I think real estate is uh it's going to be tied to labor as always but uh you know what I was expecting thing coming into this year and sadly I think it's playing out is that it's just going to be stable.
It's going to be I don't think it'll go down two to 3% or go up 2 to 3%. It's not supposed to be aggressive. But the one thing I've been saying is that it is a buyer market. So am I afraid of buying homes? No. I I have I bought homes last year. I'm buying homes this year. it still boils down to your and I again a lot of Chads have purchased homes and that's why I've been I've been very uh I've been strict with it telling y'all just make sure you're getting a good deal cuz you could maximize this buyer market to your advantage right now like I'm saying if stable market it sucks cuz dude a month ago rates were coming down uh the mortgages finally were cracking and you were break you know because again the Fed funds rates at 3% short-term money is cheap right now cheaper substantially from the last couple of years.
So, those long rates are finally catching up. Uh, and then this [ __ ] happened and then they're right back up to back near seven again after they were just starting to crack five or get crack six going into the fives. So, it's uh as long as you're getting a good deal, you make your money on the buy.
I mean, that's really I'm telling you, I know a lot of people, the doomers, they're going to be LIKE, "AH, REAL ESTATE. AH, I HAD A FOR NO ONE COULD AFFORD A HOME. I GOT TO NO, it's just like again if you're saving if you're using liquidity and you have the money right now to buy the home, you are offering liquidity to a home seller uh in in this type of environment.
So, if you could save 10 15% off of that, off of the jump, who gives a [ __ ] what the, you know, again, the market's going to move. Even if it goes down and you get a little bit of a real estate shock, which I don't think is going to happen, even if that occurred, your cost basis should be there. Uh, you know, and that's you're going to have cushion.
And then again, real estate is a liquid. That's where you get your your benefits, but also too, all these developments would happen a lot slower. So by the time it even goes down, your the way you utilize the property, whether living or renting, you're not going to be moving that thing. Your your cost basis, if you're protected there, you're you're going to be good to go.
So yeah, but that's you make you have to be strict on the buy, though. But if you're buying like I'm not I would I wouldn't be buying houses that are near [clears throat] the the highs of 21 and 22. If it's not a if it needs a lot of repairs and it's a high price, I I think that's just a bad idea. Yeah, the long end was finally starting to chill, dude.
I'm getting I I think I have a chart of it but the mortgages bro they because remember the mortgages were very stubborn and then they started to go down and I'm telling you right at like fe end of February even after the the software stuff and AI dude the even the jobs are not bro the the rates were coming down finally and then boom one two weeks three weeks they're right back up uh to where they came down from.
All right, Spar's going a little lower. I'm seeing those premiums the same price I got out of them at. I'm surprised. Louisiana home sales are out of control. Yeah, the area depends a lot. But even then, whether it's hot, whether it's cool, even the hot market showed a lot of people, you know, not every market, even if you're hot right now, it's not going to stay hot.
And I think that's what a lot of people have learned in this last couple of years with real estate. So, that's why I think price sensitivity, uh, and being, you know, more judicial in how much you're paying is just a good strat. That's how you're going to do real estate well. Otherwise, you're going to be like, I hate real estate.
I had one repair and then I did no equity. It's like those are really bad things. But if you are able to manage that, I think you're going to have a great time. It's good to have a buyer market. It sucks if you're trying to flip them right away, but even then, like any desirable home, you buy it cheap enough, you list it cheap.
If you list a house cheap, they're selling very fast. Yeah, you should be. I mean, keep looking. You should again. I think Chad's like Chads have sent me properties and they've got some good ones. That's it. Like just very different than a couple years ago. Like I'm saying, you're not some people are still getting outbid and you still have to deal with that.
But at the same time, it's like you have a way different opportunity to be able to get like houses that just you would have been overpaying for or literally would not have been an option a couple years ago, but it's still slow. I mean, again, rates are high. Uh, and that's what I saying. The rates are going to change.
You'll always be able to change that around, move out of them. But, uh, you got to focus on purchase price. TXN, uh, TXN kind of flushing. Yeah, about dollar or two candle. Not anything triggering, but that's moving down right now. And then Global Foundaries on the load, too. Mim says, "We have time to assess implications of Iran war.
USMCA review chance for stronger supply chains. SWMR. Is this the IPO? I think so. This was the IPO that went crazy. [snorts] 3.99 on a new bill. That's awesome. I'm a big fan. How will homes become affordable if price drops? Corporations buy them up. The American dream is on life support. I mean, I don't Did you hear about the new law?
They passed it or they signed it, but I mean, that'll limit that aspect of it. But that is kind of the it's it's all on inventory. I mean there is a way homes drop sadly it's if people die uh if people don't buy them uh but you know supply and demand but then you you've got to see it though it's not like it's area by geography by geography so it's like I'm saying like there's cheap homes in places a lot of places uh but the places where there's a lot of demand you've seen these crazy moves the prices rates come down the prices come back up you play this little game.
But at the same time, it's like there is still that's why people are like, "Oh, my area is hot." Like, dude, the Ohio's, the Louisiana, the [ __ ] Wyoming. Uh, not Wyoming. Uh, what's what am I thinking of? Boise. No, not Boise. What's that one place? Oh, the one place we were looking at, the $9,000 houses.
I already blanked on it, but yeah, there's there's cheap houses still. And those are the areas that Iowa like those are keeping it alive. But then you're also seeing too like if you thought you were priced out of San Diego, LA, Austin, Texas, uh if you thought you were priced out of any of those locations, those have came down from their peak a decent amount.
Now granted, they're still up from several years ago, but it's like those areas, those changed with supply and demand, but those also those places are up because of limited supply and everybody who lives there. But there's a lot of different places. Axio citing White House. Israel will try to assassinate the new Iran leader and they are much more interested in that than we are.
Israel has other targets and we know that Trump's main targets are to destroy the missile and nuclear program, its navy and the funding of its proxies. Axio citing officials Trump will view regime change as an additional gain, but it intends to end the war once his main objectives are achieved are. So they're saying Israel wants to kill the new leader and Trump just wants to get rid of the nuclear.
That's the summary of that quote. Axio citing US officials. You want to do a buy down. How much are you paying? That's the uh that's you just got to just math, you know, calculate it and what you're saving up front, but so I'm assuming it's not a new build. Yeah, Iowa. Not I mean, Idaho did come down though, too.
Again, these are the places that got really hot, but the ones close like the real low low supply, high demand, you know, it they they actually changed a lot. But then again, like for in reality, because I don't know if you guys remember me saying this back when I was telling you and showing you the videos of uh you know, I was I was making videos in 2018, 2019 telling people about real estate, saying, "Look, like Atlanta, I was I have videos with Atlanta at $60,000, $80,000, uh Indiana and all that." So again, that was a while ago, but one of the big things I have always said on stream about real estate, if you ever asked me why I was so bullish on real estate for a lot of my life, it was population.
I'm about to start sounding like a Bilderberg. Uh, but I've always believed in population. That's just simple. Same thing with the stock market. That's what I even told you guys why you want to hold long. The longer you own it, the less riskier it becomes. It's because population. People are [ __ ] born.
Even though we're not having as many kids and there's more boomers and all this other [ __ ] at the end of the day, dude, population keeps going up. That's more people that are going to be buying, more people that are going to be buying stocks, houses. That's one thing I've always been bullish on, especially if there's a longevity reason to be in an area.
You're getting demand no matter what. And then the other people aren't moving or they're passing it down to their kids. and then the people stay there. So, population. So, if you're ever like, is there a way that real estate breaks from this dynamic of low rates, high purchases, and all this other [ __ ] going on?
Yes. Uh sadly, it's kind of dark. It would be people dying and less people being born. That that's it. Again, right now, there's a lot in the next 5 10 years, there's going to be a change in supply just from all the people dying that are boomers. uh you know unless AI ch and that's the thing if AI changes that that's something I don't think people have thought about right is like that's where it's like a bro I hate to break it to some of y'all I don't I don't know if I believe this but I do believe in you know I've told you there's very promising medical advancement potential with AI but what if I told you these boomers might live forever how pissed would you be I would be pretty pissed you know I'm not really the biggest boomer hater but you know Again, at the same time, California, California, a lot of the California liberals, I mean, they're just the people who have already [ __ ] up the world for the last 40 years.
And why do you know, why do you think they're so comfortable to pivot into I should be a better person now and do this and do that? It's cuz they got [ __ ] $2 million in their crib that they bought for hundred grand a couple like 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 40 years ago. You know what I'm saying? So, it's like imagine if they live forever.
And then again, if you do have in some of these nice beach towns, California, the New Yorks, all these places, if these people do live longer, that's going to tighten supply. If AI makes people live longer, then that supply dynamics is not getting shaken. Unless AI could create properties faster and more efficiently, but even then, you still are going to run out of space.
But yeah, population increase and decrease is a big macro driver of real estate value. the rate of population is decreasing the the population is growing like I have data on it like I have real estate data that produce like it demographics and it will show you how places are growing what they're expected to do all all of that other stuff.
But so the rate is going lower. So like more people are dying than being born, but overall population has still been increasing. And that's not even and then again factor in immigration. That's the other part. I mean, Canadian real estate, dude, I have no [ __ ] idea. Canadian real estate has tripped me out since 2016.
That's And that's the other part, though, too. That's like the scary warning cuz you know how many people thought Canada was supposed to crash every year for the last 10 years? I don't know how they [ __ ] do it, dude. Cuz so Canada is just a trip. But yeah, it's uh it's really wild. Can I pull it up by the country?
Yeah. more profitable to flip or just rent? Depends what your timeline are. But like a flip, you're making bigger money just within the time frame it takes you to flip it. Rent, you don't really make you get hit small cash flow on rental properties, but then rent plus appreciation over the years, it's kind of like a dividend stock.
So look, this is I could get it state by state, but even here's the United States. 343 million people population 5-year estimate is 354 million. 10 years is 367. So that's 3% growth over the next five. It's small, right? It's slowing down compared to the past, but it's growing, right? You even have household income, how many households exist, the estimate of that, the changes, the median, what people are expected to earn, all of all of this.
This is the demographic analysis of uh of real estate. INFQ, Nvidia, quantum speculation, they're kind of moving Canada's experiencing its largest crash in history. Yeah, I don't believe that's true. I think uh I think prices came just like America prices slowed down from the highs and they had a dip.
But dude, have you seen the [ __ ] can I even pull up Canada? I don't even know if I have Canadian data. Oh, yeah, I do. Yeah, bro. Canada's disgusting. How do Why the [ __ ] do I have Canada data? I don't have the forecast. Let me see if I can pull up the pricing of it, though. Oh, I only have the population data.
Is Twitter down? I don't think so. I haven't checked. Oh, it might be. My just refreshed it. It's moving hella slow. Yeah, I think Twitter is down. Yeah. So, Canada, this is just the new housing prices, but like it's been stalling. This is how like California looks. This is how a lot of places in America look.
But that's that's been the biggest crash because all it did is go up. Dude, I'm telling you, bro, Canada is insane. I have been a lot of people have been baffled by that. That would probably be the worstc case scenario for America, which again, the worst case scenario is that it just [ __ ] rockets forever.
No matter how again I like I'm saying I thought Canada was unsustainable in like 2016 to 2018 and then after it just kept going. I I gave up. I just said it's going to keep doing this [ __ ] So yeah, for like almost 10 years you held the 50% increase. Like America is right here where we hit the high came down and then I don't even know if the prices are just kind of stabilized.
See they're chilling but they are holding a if I pull out the 10-year chart it gets even more disgusting but yeah just again even how their loans are operated everything spies coming up. MLM says if energy comes down we'll see more weakness again remember you had those NATO rut comments here at the bottom.
Oil starting to come down. Saudi is hosting an energy summit in Islamic foreign ministers in Riad to coordinate regional security responses. Is that how US was? Yes. But Canada has arguably been in a quote unquote bubble for over a decade. That's why it's hard to call it a bubble. I'm telling you, it's a weird one.
Three private planes parked at Ben Gurion, Tel Aviv, suffered severe damage by Iranian missiles. And then TASM says Iran's southpars fire as under control the real prices. Yeah, I don't think it's that's not like I'm saying even in America like even if so prices come down and you have inflation. Oddly enough though, people are at least they made more money in Canada to a certain degree.
But the whole idea is like, bro, they are up a lot. Like like I told you, the price is stalled. But if your guys' biggest crash is a stall, if that's what you're calling, just like again, it's not we're it's not coming back down to uh to normal or what what it was. I'm telling you, Canada is just a very weird place.
again how the loans are, how people get financing and like I'm saying it just it's lasted long enough now with both supply demand and everything where it's just it's still going. Uh I would even like I'm telling you I would have never 10 years ago if you asked me if the prices would still cuz remember they ran up fast but then it stayed up like I showed on that other chart.
It's like America we had the pop in 2020 and then our prices leveled out. They did that like 6 7 years ago and it's still up. So it may have declined the last like 6 to 8 months again even remember you know what's happened with the currency has been a lot too but it's truly truly fascinating and it's something along the point where it just hasn't shown real weakness.
Uh cuz with a market like that, Canada theoretically could drop in half, but it but it hasn't. Service now on the low and then Fastly keeps going up. Uh there could be my Twitter stopped working. Let me check down detector. There might be. Yeah, Twitter's down. Valerant Frontier went down for a little bit.
Just Twitter and Reddit's going down right now. Or at least a lot of reports on Down Detector, Gmail. That's what I was saying. Like the worst thing that could happen for the United States is that you have Canadian real estate. And it's it's not even a bad thing. It just means that you're going to hold up these high prices for the next decade.
That what what looked like a bubble, what looked like unsustainable prices just lasts forever. So I again if you own a home that's not bad but if you don't own a home you're like what the [ __ ] is this? So like that's the part where it's like it's actually like trippy. I mean my I don't know Canada real estate as well.
You you could talk to uh you could talk to we have a couple of Canadians in here. But the one thing I've always believed in and I feel like this is universal. Like I feel like from the beginning of time like literally I don't care your culture or wherever is like you go to the next town if that makes any sense like you know and I think if you are young I made I made a fortune in real estate buying just outside of the city that's what I I cuz I didn't have a lot of money to start and prices were high when I began too.
Uh but the whole idea was like I went where I could but I went as close as possible to the places that were already nice. And by doing that that you know you have you're young, you're 26 years old, the next 5 10 years, uh you're going to be able to uh you could probably get something way cheaper than you could today and then it could grow you could grow into it.
So I don't know Canada that well, but I've never been there in my life. I mean I love maple syrup. I don't really watch hockey. Everybody I met from Canada super chill uh you know even with Donald Trump so it's it's fine. But like if there's places outside of Canada like you know different cities that are not yet popping off but they have reasons you know and they're near the the nicer areas that have already gone crazy then those are those are usually going to be the places you could build a a nice little real estate career.
Get you a home. I mean, [ __ ] I wouldn't mind, you know, you live outside of the city if it saves you 20, 30, 50% on a home and then that way, you know, that like I'm talking about population and as these places grow, those are going to uh those are going to grow into uh to the value. Alcoa's on the high and spar back at the [ __ ] Canadian mortgage rates.
I just think your aren't all of your mortgage rates adjustable? That's what I think is the craziest part, too. You guys have lower rates, I'm pretty sure. Right. Yeah, your rates are super low. compare. I don't know what term this is on 2.5 best rates in Canada. What? But I don't know how the [ __ ] this works.
So it says a fiveyear mortgage 3.9, but then yeah, doesn't it like change every 3 to 5 years? You could only have a mortgage rate for 5 years fixed. That's what I'm saying. Aren't all of them adjustable? But yeah, at least it's cheaper to get your hands on it. But yeah, I remember I remember though Canadians were freaking out about that like six, seven years ago and then it all worked out because the rates went up and then like some people like, "Oh, how will I pay for it?" Still the effect was very negligible in the grand scope of things.
It's hours out now. We'll see. I mean, try to I mean, I don't know the area as well, but if you you could find the air like I remember where was the place where they were. Was it Alberta? Is Alberta expensive? I remember when Alberto was cheap or wherever they were doing the fracking. So, wherever there was like oil and then the you remember like the oil the was it the oil sands and [ __ ] like that like I knew people was going out there back in the day and like those properties were in the sticks and then they [ __ ] went crazy.
So, it's like find the trends and where the population and money is going. That's that's usually a good sign. But yeah, I don't know the area, dude. I don't know Canada the same way. But I do believe in the aspect of you go a little bit out. I I think you could find a lot of things. I think you could always find a a city that is growing just outside of a nice city and that's a good place to start cheaply.
Yeah. the condos in Canada. I think that's everywhere too. Like that's what you've seen a lot like cuz condos condos don't usually boom but after co they did almost everywhere but now if it's older and then depending on the rate that's where cuz you have more fees with it and then again condos get comped out by rent and there's just so much more supply of that.
Was it Calgary? I think that's what it was. Cuz I remember there was there was oil like just out in the middle of nowhere in Canada and it was cheap. But then after the more oil booms and then Canada kept boom booming, it just kept going crazier and crazier. Let me see if I can find that one. Oh, yeah.
Calgary still has some cheaper areas. Again, I don't know [ __ ] about that. Like I'm telling you, man, from all the people I've met and talked to over the years, what it says the the average price in Calgary is like 400,000, but then there's certain areas of Calgary that boom to 700. But I I remember these Yeah, these were dirt cheap, dude.
That's what I'm saying. Like back in the back when I was hearing about it, it was this was like during the oil stuff, they were like high 3s even before that. That's like 0506, but around like 2012 to 2014. And then yeah, I mean at least 600 grand that seems more affordable than uh that's more affordable than California.
What about Puerto Rico? Uh, just depends if you want to live there. But like I'm telling you, the worst advice that I keep seeing people give out is [ __ ] telling you to move to Puerto Rico to save on taxes. You are going to get audited. I cannot stress that enough. But nobody [ __ ] listens. It's good.
Good clickbait. But yeah, that's it. So yeah, if you want to live there, I mean, it's good. I don't know how the real estate appreciates. It has been going up cuz people have been moving there. But domestic, I know how to value domestic property. America there, that's what I'm saying. Canada is different.
Puerto Rico, the Dominican, there's Mexico even, there's great Airbnb opportunities, but yeah, it's just like ownership and valuation is a little different. Puerto Rico is better because it is a you get some of the uh domestic territory aspect of it. All right, man. Well, you're back right back up to open again.
You've got a couple of updates, but nothing too crazy. US removes Russia related sanctions from UAE's futurists. [clears throat] My email is trading [email protected]. Like I said, bro, I don't know. I I got I got you mad, man. Uh you know, he's our Canadian who really is uh very involved in real estate.
But other than that, bro, I'm not uh I could give advice or I could, you know, I like to talk a lot, but like I'm saying, I don't have the same uh my real estate experience in in other parts is just is non-existent. you know, my my whole entire career has been in the United States. I've done other projects outside and I've done partnerships and invested in it, but yeah, I don't I'm not I I rely on people who have done more and are way more invested than I am in those areas.
That's the that's how you do it. I mean, Richest Man in Babylon Why would you get audited if there's no taxes? Cuz that's I mean that's what I'm saying. If you're there to live there, depending on how you're doing it, but you still are going to file. So if you make your money in the United States or these people with big companies or the traders and they're like go to Puerto Rico and you can make money and then you don't have to pay taxes.
like the IR it's a it's part of the AI now. So, anybody who puts Puerto Rico, especially if you've filed previously in other places, you are going to trigger the IRS AI is going to look into you a lot more. And then now, depending on how how if you're living there full-time and if you're not meeting any requirements, it's literally it raises your odds of getting audited extremely large.
and mo cuz most people aren't doing it the right way and then it's like you got to really [ __ ] live there your whole time. The the residency requirements and all of that. You make one mistake, it's not really worth it. So again, considering that there is a there's ways to get a good tax strategy without having to uproot your life.
I mean, there's trusts, there's there's a lot of things, but uh the the Puerto Rico idea is very dated at this point, and it comes with a lot of risk. So, and again, if you're not making other money, you don't have a business, you don't have any crazy trades, trade gains to do, then yeah, if you move to Puerto Rico, start making money there, that's different.
But again, if you do have a US address anywhere or you're going to frequent the US and not live there full-time, it comes with a different set of risks there where you you could get in trouble. How old am I? I'm old enough to date your mama and old enough to be your daddy. So, yeah, it's a mystery. You know, I actually did have my age somewhere.
I looked the other day. My age was somewhere on on one of our websites, but yeah, I don't I stopped telling people how old I am. Mainly because I lost my hairline, but other than that, yeah, I'm I'm old, bro. I'm old. I'm I don't feel old, you know, but at the same time, like I'm I'm the healthiest I've been except for I getting sick like a month or two ago.
But yeah, man. Uh you these new guys, bro. These young guys nowadays, bro, they're they, bro, if bro, if you're 30 years old, they call you, you know that, bro. You know that? Like 30 year olds, it's not spring break anymore. Okay? Why are you going on spring break if you're 30? This is what the young guys say.
It's called It's called PTO, bro. That's called It's called vacation, not spring break, dog. What are you What's wrong with you, man? Mhm. You're not even 25 and get called unk. That's wisdom, habibi. That's wisdom. You have wisdom. Okay. You have wisdom. Mhm. Oh man. I'm sorry, bro. I'm sorry you lost the pup.
I hope you're okay. That's tough, bro. That's tough. You know, even with all the crazy [ __ ] in the world, man. Just relax a little bit. and DHT supplements. I'm good, dude. Still want to take steroids one day, but I might I might be getting too old for that. Yeah, Greenspan is 100. Isn't that amazing?
That blew my mind. Literally 100 triple digits. I've been doing stocks more more of my life than not cuz I started really young. I mean, that's it, bro. I wanted a way out from a very early age. I had a lot of ambition and I I told you I had a growing up I was in the third grade. So this is what really started it when I was in the third grade.
I had a kid on my little league team. I played little league and I went over to his house. Dog, this house was balling. This was like So again, I came my parents are from Egypt. Uh we had I I have always shared a room with my sisters uh up until I was you know right before I left home at 18, right? I I never had my own room.
I had my own room for like 6 months maybe. [snorts] Uh you know we had a big immigrant family, a lot of children. Uh I have five siblings or four I'm the youngest of five. And then I go third grade, bro. I go to this dude's house. It's the his family is like three people. It's the biggest house I've ever walked into in my life at that time.
And I'm like, "What the [ __ ] is this dude?" It was crazy. And then his dad had like three different Corvettes. And his dad was like, "Every year I get a new Corvette. He gets the newest Corvette every time they come out. Collected Corvettes." I'm like, "What the [ __ ] is this?" And yeah, and then his dad was a stock broker.
I think his dad worked at Wedbush. Uh but yeah, that was my first like, "Holy [ __ ] that's how you do it." So stocks and then as I kept growing older, uh I kept doing, you know, hearing more about it. And then that's when I got exposed to Jim Kramer at 14 and that's when I was like, "Fuck yeah." Uh my brother showed me on Mad Money and he said that you watch TV and get rich.
That's what the book was called, too. And it it turns out it was that simple to a certain degree. But yeah, that's how I that's it. I so I've done stocks more of my life than not. And then real estate, my parents did it during the bubble. They lo they made money, they got houses, and then they lost everything.
And then from there, by that time, I was getting into my my adult year years or old enough to do something. So yeah, but I've done stocks for very long now at this point. Uh, and I I like it. I really do. I love it, man. I think financial markets it's a good knowledge to have. So like I gave you guys want to hear my tinfoil.
I gave this tin foil the other day. Uh but like even then like knowing how the markets work, knowing how to price things, all of these things are so crucial and that's why I think so. Like you know the poly market, the cowies, you know, like I said, I thought a lot more people were going to get wrecked with the uh with the uh what's it called?
with all the gambling and stuff like that. Most of it's just sports betting. But like my tinfoil is that the poly markets and the couches were created to kind of clear up some of the noise from the financial market pricing. Because if you don't know the options on oil and the futures curve, they price in a different probability than the prediction market.
So you kind of get rid of all the little, you know, crackheads going crazy, they'll they'll move to the prediction markets and now it's slimming down the noise in terms of like financial markets and what they're pricing. So yeah, that's my that's my tinfoil on it. And I don't know, let me double check this one.
Yeah. See, and then some stuff you don't even have a market for. So you guys remember that tinfoil on Netanyahu, whether he exists or not. Like you don't have a prediction market on that. Surprisingly, I've seen prediction markets on everything, but that one, no. This gives the gamblers an outlet. Yeah, cuz that's what I'm saying.
Like there's there's less noise. there's less noise now and then the people who had kind of skewed the probabilities. I mean, imagine all the short squeezes over the years and people like me who you've used the smaller amount and then you get all these people on the internet using these small amounts cuz again I mean I like the uh [clears throat] I like options.
I mean that's why I'm saying like I've looked at the damn uh dude I've looked at the uh at the prediction markets. It's stupid. Uh just in the sense of like what do you I'm going to for a 50% odds I I make 50%. So unless I'm finding something at 10% odds you're going to make 10 10x. I've done that on an option at least what once a week since this conflict began.
Like you could find like you could hit 10 x's and you get way more riskreward on an option than you would a uh a prediction market. So, but I do think it takes some of the smaller bets and moves them to the prediction markets and then clears up the noise for the actual like what is truly priced in. UAE stresses targeting need to avoid targeting vital facilities emphasizing the importance to adhering to international law.
UAE confirms targeting energy facilities linked to Iran's South Pars field poses threat to global energy security. time. It's 8:30 already. So, we're still at that. We spent what? Half the day up, half the day towards the lower end. Not it's half a percent 08. The Dow keeps going lower. What could he say that would be bullish if he said the war doesn't matter or like I'm I think no matter what it's going to sound hawkish today but like I said on the uh the Instagram and the YouTube short.
I just think the market's going to take it better than expected as long as he reflects what the oil futures are showing. So, if he's going to say, "Yeah, they expect inflation because of oil, but not that high," then I think that's going to uh take another part. I looked into Hyperlid, but Hyperlid's [ __ ] dude, it's [ __ ] Indian, but like like you can't trade Hyperlid and you need like a VPN and all that.
I mean, I looked at it after the CRG thing to see if I could get a price on oil over the weekend, but you're just trading against people who cannot go on [ __ ] exchanges. So yeah, there's volume and stuff like that, but I do think it's not uh I don't think it's really as reflective. I just think it's a bunch of people, you know, trading, you know, trading in Booking.
Again, I mean, I I posted a thread on it and people were were instantly rushed to the defense. I'm going to make a video for you guys. It's just like prop funds. like it's not a there's like real volume, real money, and real pricing and then there's a lot of, you know, circlejerking or simulated concepts that don't necessarily reflect pricing.
And that's what I was saying like one of the most important things I've learned in my life is how to read prices, real prices in real markets. And that that will be a skill that that you could have that will go a very very long way. and then low ticker is picking up again. It's like 3/4 of the way. All righty.
I need to go to the bathroom. Is Gabbard still Is Twitter still down? Okay, my Twitter loaded. Are these guys still going? Question is, did you tell him? Did you tell him? Anybody want to answer the question? All right, man. Follow me on Instagram. Go watch the PAL video at the training fraternity. Senator, I'll uh answer the question.
So, u with regard to briefings, is this the same one? The the president gets briefings constantly about intelligence. Now, the comments that you talked about, uh, I had not heard, but what I can tell you is that, um, Iran had specific plans to hit US interests and, uh, energy sites across the region.
Uh, and that's why the Department of War and the Department of State took measures for force protection and personnel protection in advance of Operation Epic Fury. I think that's what's most important. Any any predictions to the president about the straight of four moves? All you got to do is look at a map and you'll see that the vulnerability of the straight of Hormuz.
Was that was that part of the briefing? Director Gabard, I think the director Ratcliffe uh made the point here is that uh this has long been an assessment of the IC uh that Iran would likely hold the straight of Hormuz as leverage. My question is, was that communicated to the president in the leadup to this action
because of that long-standing assessment that the IC has continued to report that the Department of War took the preemptive planning measures that it did? Well, they've stated that they did not plan for the Straight of Hormuz. The president said, "Who knew that was going to happen?" Anyway, let's move on.
Does the president take a a daily brief from the intelligence community? This is a this is a yes or no question, I think. Yeah, the president um I would say senator, in my estimation on average, I brief the president of the United States on intelligence uh probably on average uh 10 to 15 times a week where I have conversations with him about uh specific discreet issues.
Sometimes uh there are dedicated sessions uh that last hours in length. Uh sometimes I'm briefing him on specific issues, sometimes three or four times a day. Uh but I would say on average uh my interactions where I'm briefing the president on important national security matters uh happens probably on average 10 to 15 times per week.
Thank you. Could you update us on uh the intelligence on Russian uh intelligence sharing with Iran in the current conflict? What what what do we know? Uh Senator, if if there is that sharing going on, um that would be an answer that would be appropriate for a closed session. Well, it's been in in the public press.
This is open source that it's occurring. U is it occurring? Again, uh if it is occurring, that would be an answer appropriate for a closed session. Uh what I can tell you is that according um to the Department of War uh any support that Iran may be receiving is not inhibiting their operational effects.
Okay, that's sort of the first cousin of a yes, I guess. Um, according to intelligence analysis, can regime change or the elimination of the estimated 1,000 pounds of uh highlyenriched uranium be accomplished without boots on the ground? Uh, Senator, the U discussion about the Iranian nuclear capability, uh, we intend in the close session to talk about that in great deal.
with regards to uh revealing any information about the ability to do that. Um I I would have to defer that to uh close session. Okay. I'll see I'll see you in an hour. Um finally, there was very little if anything in the in the uh report in the assessment about climate change and that's been in in past reports.
There is a lot of discussion about migration. The estimates are that climate migrants because of the changes in climate the climate and the and the atmosphere in particularly in the center equatorial area of the earth will range from 200 million to Boeing on the low dude my Twitter is still out actually.
Habibi JD Vance is planning to visit Hungary soon. And then nuclear reactors expected in Japan's next US investment. What time is it now? 8:30. Bro, this would have been Euro close, but we still have a another hour. Yeah, Tulsi. Some of you are disappointed. Some of you are like, "Dude, she's so hot.
It's 8:30 in the morning." So, it's good, man. It's good. Good morning. Yeah, there's her comments were hitting the wire earlier, but for now, I mean, we've kind of chilled out ever since the last gas updates, the again the PARs field and then uh the evacuations. You heard something about a UAE regional like security council thing.
You even got to hear from NATO route rut and he was talking about some well spies moving out a little bit, but this is all still the Powell pregame. That's IQV, not IGV. And then Meta a couple's NIVA. So, not bad, hubby. Not bad. IGV came back down. Is that green? No, they're XLF and IGV kind of the same.
El. All right, man. Well, low ticker stopped going. Remember right before uh like literally 5 10 minutes ago, the low ticker was pretty active, but we're chilling, bro. We are chilling. How do you feel? So, we're going to go over Powell, too, uh, a little bit later once we get closer to, uh, probably like 10:30, 10:00 a.m.
again, 11:00 a.m. my time. So, 2:00 p.m. Eastern, that's where we get it. And remember, the Fed today will be active right away. Uh, because you will get the SCP. So, other than that, you know, we're going to go from there. And then, uh, 30 minutes later, you'll get Young Powell, the [snorts] final Powell.
What are the five? I think again I think you might get one more, but this will be his final dot plot. You lurk since 2019. Never chatted much. Well, hey man, long as you get a house, I'm down. You got a lawn term? Hopefully. Isn't it weird no NFT talks? No, I think that's normal. I just, you know, I feel bad for the Salana bros.
That's the sad. That's what I'm saying, bro. This young generation, bro. It's sad, bro. I feel bad. Pump Fund extracted all the money out from that system. You have people like, bro, you have these kids now. They're getting hella like they would get excited about these small ass Salana coins and like when things get pumped, bro.
There was an era where all of these [ __ ] like crypto bros, dude, and like Ethereum, dude, they were just spending a hundred grand on a picture of a monkey. You see, you know what I'm saying? They don't understand the liquidity. Like, you know, like now people are like, "Oh, it's a hund00 million market cap." I'm like, "Dude, you should have seen what they were doing with the monkey pictures." This was before Punch.
Mhm. But yeah, other No, it makes sense. I mean, it's not like crypto has been in a it's not like crypto has been in the best environment, per se. SLG, like I said, to watch some of the REITs there. That's the first one. I feel like Vornnado didn't even go up. Ah, Vornnado did come up finally, actually.
But yeah, SLG with a slight pop. Those options are kind of crazy. and you still don't have a house. Do you have a lawnmower? I mean, everybody goes at a different speed. I mean, it does depend on how you prioritize it. So, like, you know, it really just depends. Like, I've I've encountered people who make a lot of money and they've made a lot of money when they first met me and they still didn't get a house and then vice versa.
I mean, I I knew a guy I knew a lot of Chads, bro, that I just I think they they really were motivated by it early on. Uh, and they were working normal jobs. I I mean, I I'll never forget one of the Chads. He worked at Domino's. He worked as, you know, doing pizzas and then he started his lawn term, but then he just had no idea he could even qualify for like a FHA loan.
ended up buying a condo and then ended up and then from there a couple years later worked his way into buying a Domino's franchise. I was tripping off of that. But that's like one of those where it just depends on on really how you prioritize it. That's why I try to encourage you guys to do so. Uh, I know you live in a world with high prices and it seems out of reach, but I can assure you that's the one that's another one of those things that changed my life is when I realized like, you know, things are expensive, but there is ways to acquire them.
Especially when it comes to a house, like you know, there's definitely a path, but you have to uh you got to kind of want it as much and like desire it or not even desire, like prioritize. if you prioritize it, I I I I almost certainly know you will get it. So, wherever you're at in life, I mean, it's just a matter of is this important to you right now?
And if it's important to you and you want it, I mean, there is definitely you'll go down the rabbit hole and you'll you'll realize it's not as it's not as far off that as as you think. SLG still going. A couple of healthc care is on the high, too. NATO. Why doesn't the US just leave since they never help out?
I mean, they might. I don't know. I mean, after this pl the second time you guys brought up selling plasma. We were talking about that yesterday. VG going on your tape of CD. LRCX Nibbus again as well. A couple things I feel like are waking up, man. Oil still in stairstepper mode again. 98. You hit 9860 though.
You didn't really blow past it. Well, yeah. A lot a lot of people early on. I mean, it's not like they were making, you know, crazy money, but they a lot of people took advantage of the FHA loan uh both like recently, but then even like a couple years ago. That's what got a lot of people, you know, that's where I'm saying like even the small account, 300 bucks a month, if you were able to save that, that that opened up a lot of doors.
And then again, if you worked a job or even if you had your own business, but then, you know, positioned yourself to be able to qualify for one of those lower loans, uh, that that that went a long way. Hi loans, like home equity. I remember some people stopped doing the heliloc loans, but those those got those get popular or people like to do the cash out refies, especially in this like again that's one of the things in the last couple years is like real estate kind of slowed down a little bit.
A lot of people were doing cash out refinances that just cuz they needed it. But then that's why like a lot of people were they were willing to give up their low rate because of that Google cloud chief met Pentagon Michael on February 26th on D. No, I don't. Bro, that's the second. Why are you asking me about D?
I don't know. D What is DHT? Is it steroids? But yeah, I don't know. Someone asked me if I wanted DHT today. We have vampires in the chat today. Wow. I don't know. I mean, one of the vampires is like, "Yo, Tossy Gabbard looking fine as hell." They said, "What's up, girl?" Yo, I know it's early, but you looking good this morning.
It's like they remind me of upgrade the se the scene from from Idiocracy. VA loan is awesome if you could get it, you know. Shout out I I've encouraged every single vet to do it. Uh it's one of the best things. You got to live in the house, but yeah. And you could you could use it multiple times, too.
Oh, you pay it back on the sale. Yeah, it's not bad if you just do something productive with the money. Most people when they like pull out money or get cash up front, it just if it's not productive, it's not not down. I've also heard about those loans that they uh they give you like lower down payment, but then they take money on the back end.
I like the backend money on real estate, but if it's productive, I think it's great, but it's very easy to for those to fall into not being there. It's dihydrotestosterone. Oh, you should have said so, man. What the What does that mean? Oh, it's for hair loss. Poly Market is opening a bar in DC called the Situation Room.
I thought that was a joke. Cubits on the low and spy even then the low ticker just flipped. So like I say last 5 10 minutes it looked like it was doing good but now that flip cubic just took a knife and then popped back up. Wheat is still on the high. Billy and JD are the Billy Chinese. Yeah. So, a couple of these China names took a knife.
For some reason, Baba earnings numbers are showing on Trading View. Is it legit? Could just be the estimates. closed on Monday thanks to co- real estate. You got paid to take the keys, bro. Those happened too, bro. You know that. And shout out my boy, bro, Midwest. He dropped a dono yesterday, right as we left, but he had one of the crazy examples.
I can't like literally he got somebody a house for like a hundred bucks or I think they got paid 500 bucks to take the keys. Something ridiculous. But yeah, that happens. Especially if you utilize the grants and certain other things, man. It's amazing. It's showing on yours, too. Here, give me the numbers.
I'm going check the estimates cuz you guys, let me double check. I mean, it is in China, but I don't It usually has its own reporting for us. All all my numbers are in uh [ __ ] raimi. Yeah, I don't have a US number. It's been showing for over a week. It might not be the right ones then. Kuwait, four missiles, 23 drone targets in the past 24 hours.
How do you get better at trading? Uh, read intelligent investor. That's something if you want a pure stock market book, it's that it's not again trading. You will understand trading more when you understand the market and investing. When you understand the difference in you know how you are making money via stock markets and then that applies into speculation and investing.
The more you know about investing you know by process of elimination you're going to learn about speculation. You know a lot of what we do here is just take information and apply it. But then again, one of the things I focus on in real estate, stocks, long-term, even trading price. You make your money on the buy.
So, I don't know if you've ever read Intelligent Investor. I would That's that book I've been playing for you guys over the last couple of weeks. Uh I I'm telling you, it's just one of those things that you uh you know, you do it. You don't mind futures trading? You just don't like the prop firm agenda?
Oh, no. Yeah. I I think futures are fine. futures are are great. Uh definitely highowered. Uh and you got to like, you know, but that I'm not I don't like the prop firms at all. Uh because it's not real. And that's what I'm saying. A real futures trade on a real market against real market participants is different.
I just believe you should bootstrap. I don't think you know, you know, there's no point in taking money, fake money to try to leverage when I think go start with a small MNQ. You could do it with a couple hundred bucks. You could do it with a th I think what 1,000 2,000 bucks is what you need. I don't know what an MNQ margin requirement is nowadays, but you could do it on your own account via a real brokerage.
So, the problem with prop funds, they are not real brokerages. You guys understand that, right? No one is brokering your trade. What is a broker? A broker is somebody who buys and sells on behalf of you. Like a real estate agent, but but more advanced. They are the ones that are literally saying, "I want to buy this stock." Josh Answers wants to buy this stock this future.
Right? The broker goes, you give them the money, you say, "Buy it here at this price." They buy it and represent you on that behalf in the actual markets in the grand scope of things. They're they are facilitating that transfer of money to stock, stock to money, and making sure you are the one with that legitimate claim on it.
That's a broker. That's why there's licenses and and laws and all of that. But a prop firm is not a brokerage. So go all I did like again people got they they think it's like I'm trying to rage bait. I'm not. I'm saying just go read the term. You could go give me any prop fund right now and I could just go through the terms and read it real quick for you and you'll see what they all say.
It's all a simulation. They're not there. It's a plat. It's a video game. That's it. That's why when they give you $50,000 for your 500 bucks, they're giving you a paper trading account. Even the one of them I read yesterday, uh it said like 10% of the live accounts uh make a profit or something, but then it even says their performance is based off of a simulated environment still.
So you're not Let me put it another way. You guys ever see me hit one of those penny plays or if I news comes out even we might do it today. A play comes out, information comes out. I know the guys on the locked in know what I'm talking about. That's why when some of these plays, what what do I tell you guys?
I say, "Hey, I see one. I'mma leave it for you." You guys have heard me say that, right? Cuz what happens in a real market, a real at truly going back and forth as things move and money comes in and prices and then the prices start moving, the prices are going to change. The slippage, the difference between the bid and the ask, what's available quantity-wise, all of that's going to change in real time.
So that's not reflected in a simulated environment. you're not really learning the real trade when you think about it because that just it doesn't exist on a video game. It doesn't exist on a simulation. You see what I'm saying? Versus, you know, real time real. And then again, I believe in going small.
I think you could go small. You could do whatever you want, but at the end of the day, prop funds are are virtual environments. So, like I found one uh I mean you don't have to agree with me but this is a this is a fact. You could send me any prop fund and I will read you the terms and services and you will see I've said this for a very long time.
Like where's the one that I saw yesterday? I'll just read you one of the quotes that I quoted on it. says participants. This is in their terms if you read it. Participants. And this one was one of the better ones because it was actually based in Texas. So, this one wasn't even based in the [ __ ] Caribbean or the [ __ ] Cayman's or Lithuania.
It says participants are permitted to trade within a simulated non-executing trading environment. only standardized futures contracts listed on regulated exchanges. So you it will show you contracts that are listed like you know what I'm saying? But it's a it's like fantasy football. It will show you the teams that really exist.
Those are real teams. These are real contracts. MEES, ESQ, but it will tell you it's a simulated environment. Even if you're on a quote unquote live account, this is all simulated within their thing. And the one thing you got, it's booking. You got to understand what that is. That's that's just a practice even before I was alive that was there.
Nvidia reportedly to sell chips to AI chips to China that's coming out now. No movement. How do they You guys are missing out. It's not that they're not They're not re It's not real trading. It is a giant video game. So they could still pay people and you got to ask why. Even if their own stats say 10%.
Think about it. Do you know how a Ponzi scheme works? So if every person pays $200 to sign up and one out of every 10 is goes on and is profitable. 10 people 2,000 bucks. One of them makes money, you're they will pay out all day. And now look at every [ __ ] in a prop fund. They love to talk about it.
No. And let me guess, you get incentivized to bring somebody on. So you just they'll pay people out because then that way it keeps the business flowing. It's not saying that they're not going to pay you out all the time. Unfortunately, if you read the terms, there is a very different different status of how a broker could limit your payment versus one of these funds.
A prop fund has the discretion to limit your money. They can refuse to not pay you out. A broker I you I facilitate you to buy asset on my behalf. Asset doubles 10xes in value. You can't stop me from getting my money whereas a prop fund can. So it's not saying they won't pay you out. However, people not getting paid out has been a a common issue in the industry.
But it's I'm saying the trait it's not real trading. So people are selling this this dream uh for for all of these things, but it's not uh you're not really learning how to uh to trade. You're not it's not a real environment. You are never owning something. You're truly not owning anything because it just all you're doing is trying to make money on the difference of prices.
So yeah, and then then you run the backend risk of not getting paid again, they'll pay you if it's small and if they want to, you know, if they're in a growth stage and they need to do that, but God forbid you hit the biggest trade of your life and then now now you got to read the terms and service, you know, but it's not a pyramid, it's a triangle.
Yeah, it's unfortunately though, this this has been around for a while and I' I've been saying it for a while, too. I'm not trying to discourage anybody. I I actually believe in I believe in starting small. I just think you should do it the right way. Own actually become put yourself in a position to own I trade cheap options all day.
I you could go like I'm saying I'm not against futures. Uh I think you could actually go very small but you should do it in your own way where it's going to be harder. It's going to be a lot more challenging but it's in a way where you're not you don't have to lever and you're doing it. You're actually going to learn the [ __ ] market.
You're going to learn real pricing. you're gonna learn real competition, all of it. Uh, you know, and that's where it's there's just the next level versus uh being on a fully simulated environment. You can make money with a prop fund. People will always tell you that. I mean, you can make a lot of money doing a lot of things.
Uh, it's not that's not the issue. The issue is that I don't think you're actually trading like legitimately. I think it's all just a video game that pays out money. It's it's like fantasy stock trading like fantasy football. So all performance results occurred solely winning in a simulated environment.
No real funds are allocated or trading during the evaluation or funded stages of the program. I'm saying just go read the terms. Uh, I would gladly you send me any ones, I'll gladly look at them, but you just got to read terms and services and you're they all say it very explicitly. It's just not it's like a platform.
So, if I wanted to make a prop fund account, I would or like a a quote unquote it's not even a brokerage. I could make one because it's not a brokerage. You don't need the same licensing. You don't need to facilitate a real trade ever. So, you say buy me NQ. All I have to do is create a software that simulates it because I'm not actually moving anybody's money.
All they're So, you're depositing your money in and they're letting you trade on prices on their data on how they go about it. And if you make money on that, awesome. And then if you lose, they just keep the money. But no one's buying a real [ __ ] stock or future in any of these funds. That's just that's the reality of it, you know?
And as someone who showed like, you know, every trade I do is is [ __ ] live and this is on the market. That's why you guys will see my options. That's why you will see my trades. And sometimes I'm even like, yo, bro, there's only a couple of them left. That's it. Cuz one one trade, real crowding, these are the real things that happen when you do it.
And then, like I'm saying too, you [ __ ] own it, dude. Especially even your long term. So, I don't I don't think people use prop funds to hold long, but even if you did, you're technically not an owner of that stock. You would get no voting rights. You're not you're not actually owning it. It's in the name Prop.
Yeah. Literally, I'm talking prop firms, you know, cuz I always say I' I explain this a lot and every day they're like I stopped explaining it cuz [ __ ] in prop firms are always like, "Well, what's wrong with it? Well, what's what's going on?" And then, you know, you explain I'm going to make a video on it for for people though cuz I' I see the wave of it.
But like I'm saying, I'm only trying to uh, you know, I'm only trying to help people start small and build. That's all you need. I I'm a big believer in that. Not trying to stop anybody from doing that. I'm saying avoid the pitfall early and, you know, and anything offering you everything you want for a little bit amount of money is usually a scam.
You know what I'm saying? like uh it's just like I'll give you $50,000 bucks if you give me $200. It should make sense to you though now. Even without saying, "Oh, it's too good to be true." Just think about everything I just told you. It's not real money. You give me $200, I'm loading you up [ __ ] Neocoin, Neopet coins in into an account.
It's not a real It's not real money. No real money is ever being traded. The only real money is the money you're putting in. So that's it. They could give you real money on the way out if you are good at this software game, but you're not necessarily trading the market. It is a software video game based on the market, but it's not an actual trade.
Uh it's far from it. Futures broker Thinker Swim. I'm that's what I have ex I've done I used to do them a lot here. It just there was a I did I'm going to go back to the futures when these options get expensive again. But then again people started trading prediction markets. People a lot of money has gone to prop funds.
Like there was a time where the options were terrible. So last year I mean again I stopped like 2024. Uh I still have some bond futures too, but it's like 2024 I think was the last time and then 25 just the options started getting cheap again. So as long as they uh they get cheap, I mean I'm I'm I like the lowrisk high reward.
But if we ever get to a point where the options just balloon, they're not paying out the same way, the market's not giving us high single stock volatility, then I'm probably going to move right back to futures. But think but literally thinkers swim is great. Uh you know it's normal. It's based you get CME that's where your statements are coming from.
It's from It's all legit and they they have the offerings for the again someone said 300 bucks for me. the contract fees. You could get lower ones. I just uh I mean again it's like two is it like two bucks. They'll lower it too. You ask them I got my contract fees cut by like 70%. So you make a couple trades they'll lower it.
But you could go cheaper ones, but I'm I've never had any problems with Thinker Swim. Again, I don't get paid to tell you this either. I have zero I'm not referring anything. This is just off personal experience and like I'm saying the statements, the legitimacy of it. That's that's been something. And then it's also it it works well with the workflow of already being on Thinker Swim that helped out a lot.
You started with a prop fund and then you got into real trading. It's different. Yeah, it is. That's why I'm saying I don't like people think I'm trying to knock them. It's like I'm not I'm really I just think you should you should build up the skill small and early now and it's going to pay you way better dividends in the future, especially if you really want to do this.
Uh versus, you know, I would hate to to waste that time and then thinking you learned something and then you didn't. Or the worst case scenario, the worst [ __ ] case scenario is if you hit it big. Imagine hitting oil, silver, one of these crazy moves, and then then you find out what I'm telling you.
You if, god forbid, you have to deal with one of those situations. Yeah, Fastley is doing it again. I don't know where those plays are. Oh, hello. My portfolio is mainly long-term. I mean, again, I use a small amount for these options and I take them on the flips. Like, I flipped one today. I have small a lot of these plays I've shared you.
I put down some small and then I make it free. That's what I that's what I do all the time. And then even then, how you guys see me even do it, it's like you you will learn how to game a real computer, you know? That's what we're learning how to do. We're learning to play against a real market maker, [snorts] not not a software coded by by an individual company.
They'll lower the fee. If you've been trading futures on Thinkorswim, go call, go hit the little [ __ ] phone thing, support, and say and just ask like, can can I get a lower contract for you? Can you lower my commission? They will usually do it. Clawbot. Yeah, bro. We've been playing with Claudebot since like a week after it came out.
And that's why too, that's why I brought up the Fastley and the net plays that that ties into uh again now it's in China. Again, even in that video I posted on Instagram, I was telling you in China that got mentioned, but now the last week in China, they've been raising prices and people have been going crazy about it.
You've learned more about life, markets, investing, and history than four years of college. Oh man, God bless you. There's more always more to learn. Stay curious, my friend. Richard Fineman would agree. That's I'm I'm I've learned a lot, too, man. And I'm excited to to keep learning more. We live in a cool generation.
We're going to see some [ __ ] crazy [ __ ] You make trades free by getting your initial investment back. So, if you buy an option for 20 bucks and it goes up to 40, you sell one of them. You have to buy more than one. Uh but you sell one of them and get your money back. That's what I do on those little quick ones.
That's what I did the other day on the Nvidia. I I got I made a mistake, but it ended up working in my favor cuz I spent 1 cent for them and then they went up to three cents. So, I sold half of them back at three bucks and got triple my money back. So, I got all of my initial investment and then I held the other ones and sold them at 21 cents.
So, that's how usually if you get a good buy, you're good on the news, the timing, you sell back, get your initial investment. If you lose, you still have the same amount of money in your account. And then if it goes up, everything after that's profit. You still got to monetize it, though. So, you still do got to eventually sell the free ones because you can make a lot in profit off of good trades, but if you never sell the free ones and they expire, that money's gone.
It's good for beginners. I think for beginners, you're better off starting small, learning how to have a real budget for yourself to create a trading budget and then a long-term budget and then playing it small and actually just learning it in the in the big leagues cuz it's not even that hard. I mean, I learned this at age 14.
That's what I'm saying. Like, I've done this done this my whole life, but it's like it's I do believe it's in people's ability. I don't think anybody this is out I don't think it's out of reach. I just think though you can you have to limit yourself. Uh you know I think it's more damaging to learn to trade with substantial amounts of money that's both not in a real environment and that you wouldn't really be using.
Whereas if you learn I mean as the as many cultures will say if you could handle a little you could handle a lot. So that's you'll have real skin in the game, a real budget that's going to teach you some real lessons uh when it's all said and done. Yeah, it is just all risk management. That's what I'm saying.
You're going to learn. But that way too, you got to start. It's going to be hard starting small, but that's the reality. But then if you learn, I'm telling you, anybody who's done it that way, they are going to be uh they're going to really learn it. They're they're going to really actually be in the game and you make it through that, you learn how to manage that.
I mean, how can you not learn how to manage the rest? Are they far at the money? No, not all of them. Some of them are, but like you have to find it's a sweet spot. The a good explanation is the ghetto standard deviation because then that way you could see what the option market is telling you what's realistic and now you could operate within that frame to know to go too far or closer.
It's a good way to not lose your own money. Yeah, but that's I mean that just doesn't sound real to me. Like that's why I'm saying I've never all my years I've never I never paraded around like I don't lose. You guys have seen me lose. You're going to [ __ ] lose. That's the point. That's the point they're profiting off of.
But that's why it's like you have to that that you know actually getting burned by the stove is going to teach you when not to touch it. You know what I'm saying? It's like it's it's a difference between hardcore and respawns. Like you know you're not you you can respawn and save more money but you have to learn how to you have to learn that.
And that's not again I don't think every this is what I mean by intelligent investor because when you read that book and you understand the uh speculation that's part of the game that this is one of the this is one of the realest things that that is incorporated with markets. That's what you're going to have to understand.
That's why reading pricing is such a viable tool because it's real money with real risk. And now you'll even learn how people even hedge the real risk. But somebody is doing something with a real intention, you know, because there's no such thing as not not losing money. And then at the same time, if people know they could lose money and they're still doing stuff, that's this there's a certain rationality.
And then you see, you're going to learn how to think this through. And not only that, like, yeah, the pain will teach you as well. And you're going to you're going to operate way more strategic. So, I mean, if your goal, if you're trying to avoid losing your money at all cost, you are just know you get into the markets, you're going to lose money at some point.
Uh, that doesn't mean it has to be a losing endeavor when it's all said and done, but you are going to lose eventually. So, but that way that doesn't that should be a trainer and something that actually educates you and gets you a strategy rather than not. I think you should avoid all prop firms. I think if you want to fund an account, go put money into a T.
Go put money into a Robin Hood. Uh but Think or Swim, you could at least get a better shot at some of the quicker plays. But other than that, that's how I would that's what I have done. Vance to meet with oil executives as fuel prices surge. You're f that. You're asking people to put their own money against giants that will take it from people who don't know how to manage it.
And what am I saying? I'm saying learn how to manage it. You could win. I mean, I've done it. Like, I've done it from age 14. I've done it now. That's why you got to you got to be willing to actually learn it. But you're if you're telling me it's a better idea to give your own money to smaller giants on a simulated software who could still take your money if you don't know how to manage it.
I'm not I'm not really following. But yeah, you are going up against something harder. No, you don't need to lose 20,000. I'm saying go small. I mean, I've I've do all the plays I've been doing lately are extremely small and they have had some great upside. Some of them are going to lose, too, but it's at the same it's not this is not impossible.
That's why I'm saying to the point where I would rely on a again, it's just not the market at the end of the day. It's a it's a software. I don't know how to play the game, so I'll play the game just with the That's what I'm saying. It's not You're still giving your money to somebody who could take advantage of you not knowing.
So, it sounds like we're going to deal with that regardless. Iran wasn't taking talks with us seriously. CIA director says that's the van. snooze. We are pinned indeed. I'm glad we got that first hit, but [ __ ] man. So, again, no 98 though. If 98 doesn't push to 100, then I think we're going to stay in this range until something happens.
Surprisingly, not much has occurred from the morning uh in terms of like updates. advance to meet American Petroleum Institute board members on Thursday, tomorrow. Should we believe the CIA? I I don't know. The real news was the more today was escalatory for the war considering we didn't get any new information the last like six, seven days.
You know, attacking gas fields was new. Meta launching fasttrack program creator fasttrack program on Facebook. If you're a decent trader and you're lacking funding that seems the best way to build your portfolio, you suggest slowly building through options. I mean, I would suggest slowly building anything, but how are how do you know you're a decent trader lacking funding?
So where did you where did you recognize you were a decent trader? Because if you did it on a prop fund that was not real trading unfortunately. So that's my big dilemma is that you're not really learning the real skill and it's a fully simulated environment even if they say it's live. And that right there it just we're talking two different ball games about AMC.
You know, I bought AMC at like four bucks and I sold out at like 40 or 35, I think. And then we did our covered call trick as well. But yeah, I sold it a while ago after homeboy diluted the [ __ ] out of it. They said I was going to hell though. They said, "How can you be how can you claim to believe in Jesus and you sold out of AMC?" Amen, bro.
Amen. But yeah, I'm not not the biggest fan of him. path is going up again fastly. Yeah, if you could get a real time on Thinker Swim paper trade on that, you'll learn. And even then, I mean, aren't you spending like 200 bucks to join a prop fund or like a hundred bucks? I mean, that there that could be some starting capital to play around with.
I'm sure you'll hit one of them. But like that's what I'm saying. At least do it in a real environment. You're gonna learn something real. But then if that doesn't work out, my next thought wouldn't be give me more money. But then again, if it's fake, it's not it's not really the same experience. That's why that's why I say like the guys on the locked in.
You see it. You guys have seen me do it as well too. But it's like the big idea is that these trades in the real environment, bro. Again, you saw me do a 2,000 center. That only exists for a window. So, you have to be quick enough. That one, we've read it even just by listening. We saw that one coming.
But even then, that had a small window where you have to react. And then after that, they're not all going to stay the same. So, that a real environment you you are going to have a way different experience. Well, yeah. I mean, I would even argue some of you guys who said you started on it, you did good, got money, that's awesome.
And then if you're also like uh if you're also saying that you uh ended up blowing accounts, I mean the crazy part, you know, and imagine people like there's a delay on the stream. Go read the terms and services. Do you they're giving you their own software delay. Your data might be different. So you might be blaming the gambling, the leverage, whatever it may be, but it might also be the leverage or the data the data inaccuracy or the data delay and then they could price in their own spreads and slippage.
I I don't know if you've ever thought about that. That's what I'm saying there. There's even national best bid laws that exist in the stock market when it's real trading. Two loud booms heard in Riad witness. Uh uh oil's still down about buck 60 from the top. We haven't moved in a minute. 15 minutes till euro close and then 45 minutes or maybe uh 10:30.
We'll go over our our power preview. Should we looking at inflation as bullish only up until they indicate they may hike rates? It's tough. Maybe I don't I actually I'm kind of hardressed to agree with that. I understand what you're saying and I I think it's good. But yeah, it's uh like I see where you're saying like until it becomes a real problem, you might get like a a tailwind from it.
But the problem I would argue right now is that we are on we would be on the second stage of inflation. And I think that's a lot more vulnerable. That's why I think if this does lead to economy rather than shock, we got a way bigger problem. So it's like I don't know if uh I think any sign of inflation not caused by like manufacturing and and the BBB, you know, like a real inflation coming from this, I think we would have a I think you I I don't I think you'd have a really big problem.
or you'd have stagflation. That's what I'm saying. The next bout of inflation, if it comes from oil, it's going to come from demand destruction as well. That's going to be his family member. And that I think will be more negative than that. Yeah, I'm sure they pay. Again, go read the terms, whatever you guys have a prop fund on.
I just encourage if you guys really you don't need to take my word for it but just I would like legitimately read the full terms and service cuz like I'm saying you could even just be the data might be close to accurate that doesn't change that they don't have the ability to put in their own spread uh in a lot of other again this is a simulated it's not a real environment no transactions are actually being executed even on a quote unquote live account so just go look into it.
I mean, that's the best I could tell you. I Every broker or not even broker, every firm is different, but you should uh you should read into it. Yeah, separate your long-term trading as a whether you're prop farm or not, but especially the guys, you know, you're on a normal account, definitely separate them.
It'll be good. JD Vance Iranic Iran Islamic regime will not last forever. And Israel defense minister clear message to Lebanese will not allow Hezbollah to use Lebanese state infrastructure. All right, man. Well, oil's still been dropping, but then spies at VWAP, they fight this prop fund. That's why I said I need to make a video about this is why you know for the last year when people ask me I'm just like go look it up because again I mean people unfortunately like people think I'm trying to I am not trying to attack or discourage anybody.
I re I genuinely am not. I any I am all about teaching people to start small and how to actually do it on a real scale. You know what I'm saying? So it's like believe me bro. I ain't trying to shade anybody. I am just saying like this game is game, bro. This is the real game and you could also get played in in this finance world and [ __ ] have been doing it I forever.
So, but yeah, it's it's up to you, man. I mean, again, I don't I'm not selling you anything. I don't benefit if you listen to me or not. I'm not pointing you to another broker. I don't have a referral code for it. So, all I get out of this is just, you know, at least I said something. So that's what I'm saying.
It's totally up to you. But again, we have created accounts. They're slow, but even with little I've never said you don't have enough capital to start. I know people want to trade and do things fast and quickly. Options is possible, but that it's also I've been very real about those risks. Long-term, again, any amount of money you have been able to accomplish the long term.
And I've that's what I've said and shown and we have multiple examples of it. And that's that's always been the mission, man. But yeah, it's uh it is very uh it's it's going to be very difficult to you got to make your own choice with it. It's it's up to you, man. So, I'm going to say I'm not trying to discourage you if you're in a prop fund.
I'm not trying to shame you. I'm really I genuinely I have no idea how how I could explain it to you that I I'm not as invested into it as you think. That's why for a long time I said do whatever you want, bro. like it's I'm not trying to argue with you. Not trying to make you feel bad. It's just literally like just understand the game and I would, you know, we have tools to help you here.
You don't got to pay a dime even for this conversation. You really even the long term. Uh and I know not having a lot of money is what, you know, that's what gets people either motivated to do or not do things. But I I've started in the stock market with a little amount of money and I'm still here and I've encountered millions of people who have now got to have similar results.
And you don't got to give me [ __ ] bro. I'm telling you, it's going to be slower. It's going to be slower, but it's going to be more rewarding. And nobody will ever be able to take it away from you. That's it. It will all be in your hands. If you want to give it away, you can. Uh but it's going to you will be the one the master of your your destiny.
But yeah, man. That's So I hope y'all feel me cuz it does. A lot of people they they do like the they think I'm like trying to argue with them. I'm really not, man. It's just welcome to the game, man. I I hope I hope we could help. And some of you, you know, even as we bring this conversation up, some of you like, "Yeah, I did disagree with you." And you know, we'll some you're going to learn regardless.
So at least you get to hear the other side of the story. Welcome to the casino, the markets. But then also too though, like I started this conversation by telling, bro, I'm telling you, I have learned a lot from real markets and you could learn a lot from pricing and how things flow and really like that's going to be invaluable skill to have.
So I would learn it the right way, the real way as soon as possible. You know what I'm saying? More gabbard comments. Iran supreme leader on killing of security chief. Criminals have to pay soon for his blood. Ibraim Z Kabibi, where have you been? I mean, if you guys want a prop fund challenge, why don't you just do this?
I don't think you need to prove it on a prop fund. Just go, like I said, thinker swim. contact them to get real time and pay paper trade for a month. [snorts] Do that with $2,000 or $200. You don't need to pay anybody and paper trade it at least on a on simulating what really happened. And then you'll get a better idea.
And if you could do that, you'll be then, you know what you do in the meantime? create a long-term create a separate account that you just add a small amount of money to hold for the rest of your life in high quality stocks because that's the number one thing I've always said. Last thing you want to do is know about the stock market.
Imagine knowing about futures. You know what the S&P 500 is? Not everybody knows that stuff. You know that not everybody knows about earnings and Powell. Imagine knowing about the stock market from day one that you learn about it. you want to own it uh for the rest of your life. That's that has been one of the earliest lessons I've learned because I've tra I got into I learned it the first way then I saw the trading and but then when I always would look back you're like damn if I just held that if I just bought it and that's something I think a lot of you guys got to see here too even in our journey throughout the cult we look back how many names that you probably traded out of how many of you traded SanDisk WDC Micron you know what I'm saying like you've traded all of those stocks stocks at a very low price.
And that's why it's like you want to own a little bit of it, man. Uh there's there's all of these ones, bro, that you can uh that's that's the separate part from any short-term or trying to figure out how you're going to turn a small amount into a large amount. There there's another aspect called time, and that does have that ability.
Time is the greatest stretcher of money ever known to man. I don't know if you guys knew that. not effort, not your hands, not leverage, time. Time is the ultimate leverage. So, just keep that in mind. That's the best uh the best advice I think I've given consistently and it's changed my life and many others.
Paper trade. That's what I've always told everybody, even when I would do them. You got to be careful with the futures. But paper trade is not that's your go make your own challenge. You know what I'm saying? You can make your own challenge without paying anybody and you could learn it that way and see you could see what what you're really up against, but then also what you have in you to accomplish this and how you're going to handle it and then from there you'll you'll get a realistic idea.
Saudi air defense dealing with ballistic threat in Riad. We have been getting a lot of these. No, again, except for the morning news with the oil fields. Iran hasn't gone too crazy. The the Iran threatened to attack oil infrastructure after Israel did, but we haven't gotten a report of that yet. Yet is probably the key word.
pinned. Hifa got hit a few minutes ago. Israel. I might have to What was it? Chapter 8 or chapter 11? I might have to play some intelligent investor again. Euro close in one minute. Yeah, we might get a move. I mean, oil's chilled out again. I think the NASDAQ is holding you up more. SPY down 0.5 actually.
NASDAQ 47. So, a little bit. And then Dow's still down by 0.8. Russia, Novak, 20% of global gas production is currently unable to reach the market. Wait, no, bro. Pow. I think that's what I said. I mean, today I didn't I I thought Powell was going to kind of limit some of the moves, but then that escalation this morning, that really did it.
But at the same time, I mean, we still didn't really move too much. But yeah, Powell's I'm sad, bro. I'm gonna get excited soon once we see where Pow Pow is actually going. paper trading. Yeah, it won't it won't tra teach you real emotions, but I mean neither will a neither will a prop firm. But I do agree.
I do think it's a good place to get a general idea. you know, it's uh it's going to start you out at least in a way that's more on the right track than not. But at the same time, it's like what I would always tell it's like the driving ruler is like you're still going to go to a driving range. A driving range is going to be different than playing the actual course, but you should practice.
Uh, and that is what's gonna, you know, take a couple of swings, uh, before trying to, you know, chase any other endeavor. I ain't never golf, but I know they subpar. The defense contractor is popping locked again. That one IPO that came out and I've kept Fastly up here, that one squeezed. Still going.
I think the market's holding a little better because of Pal. I think if he didn't if we didn't have POW upcoming, it might be a little weird. he might unleash it. But then also too, I was saying this last night, I think the 30 minutes ahead of Powell will be active the first 30 minutes after the release, but then lately some of these Fed meetings like you're getting back and forth, but you're not getting like a real it's not like causing crazy moves.
So, my expectations are tempered for the most part, but then at the same time, anything war related could change that. But then also uh just if if he pulls out the high-risk, you know, unlikeliness, we're going to get a big move. But I just don't think it's going to happen. So, we'll find out. And like I said, I mean, yesterday too, I told you what to expect uh in terms of what they say on inflation.
And then if I'm wrong, be ready to pivot. So you should even then you we have an idea but even if the idea is not correct you should know which way it's going to go depending on how severe the inflation expectations are or are not. That's what's going to say a lot. And then his conversation I mean again you had a bad jobs report coming into it.
Uh that's something I easy to forget. High PPI today and then the Fed has just generally been on one direction. So that's why if that if that changes, we're going to get a surpriser. Trump hasn't made up his mind on sending Americans into Iran to seize nuclear material. We'll never know. Remember last jobs report was negative.
We were just so caught up in the war [ __ ] that we kind of started moving on from it. Uh, spy with a candle. Uh, oil didn't make a big pop, but spies dropping a decent amount. Again, you had a comment there. IEA following information. A projectile incident on Tuesday can confirm that a structure 350 m from the Busher nuclear reactor was hit.
Uh-oh. Remember yesterday that one didn't have too much follow through but you had one a nuclear facility was hitten there NP I'm assuming that's nuclear power production that's coming out right now okay my shit's not loading oil's not moving up on that but spies going down. That's what's going to cause it.
Those plays we flipped earlier are all cheaper. They're 50% lower. So yeah, Apple's dumping. It's all dumping on that news. I want to take it, but I might hold off. But yeah, I start again. They're saying nuclear reactor or nuclear NP nuclear production. Correct me if I'm wrong. Confirmed that a structure 350 from the reactor was hit.
Okay. Removes extraneous word and there's no damage to the reactor itself. So 350 m from it. So next to the new nuclear power plant. All right, it's really dropping. They missed on purpose. The plays they barely went up, but a big follow through. That might freak people out. Yeah, if that's a warning, that'd be terrible.
Again, remember we saw this yesterday. That's why I'm a little hesitant because I remember it caused the move and then oil didn't knife on that or oil should have [ __ ] like really rocketed, the IAEA, the nuclear agency, they said a nuclear power plant next to it. uh they got uh they got hit or right 350 m away.
So that's not good. I mean again same thing even happened in uh in Russia if in Ukraine if you guys remember that Zaffer Ziza freak out. So anytime I mean you got to think about it if a nuclear power facility gets hit you have a really big problem. So that's why premiums already came down. They jacked for a little bit.
You could go again if you want. If you think that's going to freak out more, the premiums haven't now they're they're even back down. So, they would have been cheaper. I'm glad I didn't take it. How far is 350 m? I'm [ __ ] American. It's 1100 ft away. 10 football field. Huh? No, no, no. Like three football field.
Quarter mile give or take. Oh, 400 meters, one lap. Yeah, you're right. So, one lap away, hubby. One lap. gold and silver. Well, no. It just depends on the dollar. That's what I was saying earlier. I don't know if you're the one who asked me, but I'm saying if we don't if this is just an oil shock and oil comes down, this doesn't play into the economy, dollar comes back down, I think gold and silver will catch a bit again.
But if this turns into a longer oil shock, a economic problem, demand destruction, stagflation, that could end gold and silver sadly because that's what happened in the 70s. So after the 70s gold spike uh even though you had a lot going on with 70s and the dollar eventually as they had the bigger longer lasting oil scenarios that started to uh that ended that major rally in gold and silver because again the dollar did move substantially.
So if the economic situation leads to a stronger dollar then that's not going to uh that's not going to be good. But then vice versa, if it uh the dollar comes back down, you'll be good. Uh CVX is on the high. Yeah, XLE starting to pop up here. Oh, nice. Four months buying and renovating. It's good.
It's go all going according to plan. I like Trump hasn't made up his mind on Americans into the facility. Saudi Arabia says danger has passed in Riad City. Oil kind of taking a candle on that going down. Yeah, they're lifting the air alert. So now that's good. Nuclear facility now Saudi Arabia chilling out a little bit.
There's a white square on the low too. Square is kind of dumping. I don't know. It's been down earlier. So, yeah, that keeps going down. The danger to the city. Well, remember tomorrow you have a meeting with Japan, so that could be interesting. I mean, people are talking about whether or not Japan is going to actually offer support or not.
But yeah, Trump is meeting with Takayichi. Taki taki, can't you see? Sometimes the Japanese just hypnotize me. I just love your Japanese yen. This is why you know the pear trades dead, carry trade's dead. Okay, sorry. helium producers. I've seen a couple of them. I don't know if that one I've heard about that being the next issue, but that it has to be long and protracted.
Again, go look at even like wheat and some of the fertilizer ones. That's if we start turning into beyond a oil shock, I think those food and all that will go. But for now, it's just going to be dependent on pretty much the next like week or two, you you'll have an answer for that. Yeah, man. Landscaping is booming.
I need a landscaper kind of. I need a tractor. You guys said you had tractors, but some of you were from all over America. I don't Anybody in SoCal have a tractor or a bobcat or a goat? But yeah, man. Landscaping big, [snorts] bro. Big markets prop with the mag names. Yeah, dude. It's a lot like last year.
And just just remember the MAG 7 versus the S&P 493. Speaking of which, let's get a checkup. You have five names green on the Dow, 25 in the red, 71 red on the NASDAQ, 30 in the green, and then S&P 130ish in the in the green, 360ish in the red. I think I might rent some goats, bro. I've seen that before.
soon, man. Soon. Cuz you could just put the goats and don't they just eat everything? They execute you for emissions. No way. I guess I didn't think about that, bro. Have y'all seen the price of tractors? I don't know if y'all have ever looked at a tractor before. Like, it's kind of crazy. Like, bro, these tractors, they're straight up like uh they're straight up like old school Rolexes.
You guys know that? Like, bro, I should have bought a tractor a long time ago. Oh, that one's not bad. Still, bro, 10 grand. Okay, while the I'm going to show you tractors while the market goes down. This is 500 bucks for this. don't even work, bro. These ones are That's 10 grand. That's the cheapest one I've seen that does that isn't from the 1920s.
8,000. Look at this. 9,800 bucks for this [ __ ] What's the [ __ ] is this Barney tractor? It's not even real. Look at 5,000 for a 1950s. You see it, bro? They got tractors from the You know how many tractors from the 1950s I've seen? $49,000. That's not a real one, bro. How much is Oh, they want it.
Yeah. I haven't even got to the to the good ones yet. Yeah. 7 grand for a 1957 tractor. Oh, 11,000. That's not bad. But that's still insane, bro. But yeah, the old ones are tripping me out, bro. Even this 1,500 bucks. I don't even know if this works. Yeah, that looks terrible. 2000's John Deere. 15 grand.
5,000 bucks for a 1960. Look at this. Would you believe that? I didn't think they would go for this. You know how many people I've seen who just have like a decorative tractor out front of their farm and I'm like, "How are y'all?" Hold up. So, yeah, man. 9,000 bucks for this. Isn't that amazing? It's the farmer flex, huh, dude?
I didn't realize it. There's a guy who made a open-source tractor plant for free. No way. You got a 1981. Dude, that's the thing I'm tripped out about. I'm like, dude, these old Dude, we're talking a 1950, 1916, 1980. I did not think they would go for that. So, very impressive. I guess USO is near the low.
Arcat Nibbus again as well. Fastly still near the high too. Yeah, bro. You could probably flip them. The old ones are expensive cuz they're easy to repair. Oh, bro. I don't even know which ones I I don't even know what I need to try. I was just looking cuz I just need something to just mow everything down and then like drag the dirt, maybe level it a little bit cuz I could hire people to do it.
But I'm like I think it might be time. We just might need to buy our own cuz then it's just easier if you have your own. I could I could have that done every weekend, you know? May I keep it very good? A Kubota. That's what I think I they I was supposed to have one. Remember I told you they stole it.
So when they left the property, they left one of those K Cabotas and then two days later they stole it. That technically it was mine. But I just I didn't want to deal with these [ __ ] weirdos. But then again, I didn't know they cost 15 grand. Do you know that? If I knew, bro, I probably would have been a little more motivated.
Skid steer. Would that be better to like knock out the brush and then to like level the dirt? You saw I posted it on my Instagram. Go look go look at my Instagram story. That's like one of the barns. It's just like overgrown and then the dirt's a little washed out. That's why I'm like, can't isn't there a machine where I could just start running over [ __ ] and level that out?
No, it wasn't in the contract, but after the property transferred, it was on the it was on the property for like 48 hours. So, technically, anything left over becomes ours. But then they came and took it, and I didn't I didn't want to fight with them. I already stole the property anyways. How is that the reason?
cuz I've heard, you know, tractor repair and like these bigger machineries, if they're more expensive and harder to repair, the newer ones, they're not like you're going to spend a lot on maintenance. Whereas like the old ones, if you could just buy the part and fix it yourself without any proprietary thing or special vendor, I think it's a you'll save a lot more money in the long run.
Trump ally warns US economy not strong enough to cope with Iran war. financial times. You need a scapper on back and a bucket in the front. Is that a tractor or is that a bobcat? for two weeks. I know you could rent them, but like if I want to have somebody on the property and make it work, like I think it'd be better to just own it.
Boeing cleared Boeing FAA to advance long delayed 779 in the fourth phase of certification. They had a little pop on that. Boeing's moving on it. I don't know if it's going to follow through. It lagged for a little bit, but that's popping again. 7779 fourth phase of certification. Remember this is where it popped around yesterday.
So I think all those premiums are going to be slack. Yeah, you could get the cheaper than that Bradley Frile zone yesterday. Let me double check. Oh yeah. Dude, 50 humanoid robots ripping around the farm. [snorts] It'd be clutch, but I think they would die from dust. You saw a farmer using a tank to to till I'm down.
Uh, Lending Club on the low LC down 40 cents. That's about two and a half 3%. You could tear I'm scared of starting a fire. So, I had a guy come in and clear some other stuff for me. But that's what I was saying. I'm like, if I'm going to just keep paying this dude, I'm I'm going to just do it myself cuz I like it.
I like every time I go to the farm, bro, I've been I've been having a good time. But yeah, he told me he caused the fire once cuz like they he hit a rock and then it sparked and then turn the air conditioning. That would be good. I Dude, I got the You know that, bro? I got that AC fixed. I got that [ __ ] fixed for 600 bucks.
The first guy said a,000 bucks minimum and then he won't even be able to know what's wrong with it. And then he said the best case scenario is I replace the whole unit for 15,000. I told the second guy, I said, "Listen, man. I'm broke. I can't afford it. You're my last hope. And if this don't work, bro, I'm going just use fans for the rest of my life.
And he said, "Easy." He said, "Did it work before?" And I said, "Yeah, perfectly." He said, "Say less." Got that [ __ ] done. 600 bucks, bro. You know that. Uh-huh. Yeah. 600 bucks, dog. Pumping now. Pumping. I got I got videos of it, too, bro. Pumping. I said, "Praise the Lord." Ain't that crazy? Yeah, bro.
First, dude, the AC, bro. They're terrorist. [ __ ] HVAC. Hezba HVAC. I'm telling y'all, bro. They're terrorists. They always They like, "Oh, no, man. 20K." You like the best we could do. Even I said I I wouldn't have even paid 600 bucks until I looked up the control board. And then I saw even on Amazon, they were like going for [ __ ] 400 or 300 bucks.
So, I was like, "All right. All right, man. It is it is a it is a tax write off and it' be good be good thinking time. What time should you put your lotto trade? I don't know, but I do think the 30 minutes before Powell and then the 30 minutes after the release, uh, those are going to be the the moments where there will be more back and forth.
Yeah, bro. The first guy the first guy was like going on r/short, bro. It was like being on Reddit. He was like, "Listen, it's going to be $1,000, but you still won't know what's wrong with being short. You'll never fix this issue. Your best your best bet is getting height surgery." I was like, "Dude, oh no, man." We let it sit for a little bit until it started started just getting really [ __ ] hot.
That's why ever since it's got hot, we're like, "All right, man. That unit needs some [ __ ] air." Cisco ransomware gang exploits Cisco flaw in zero days attack since January. Israeli officials said strike on gas facility was coordinated between Israel and the White House. squeezing contractors for 400.
Uh, [ __ ] yeah, bro. We were both happy. This guy. Okay, man. You know, you know this [ __ ] adds up, bro. Okay. Every time I go to the farm, I got to pay. And that's not the only property. Okay, that [ __ ] adds up. How you how you think we stay in business? But nah, we were both happy, bro. I know he made money.
He was He was excited. I told him, too. I was like, "You're going to be taking all of my jobs now." And then I was happy. It was a win-win. The first guy wanted 15 grand. First guy wanted a,000 bucks to say he said I He said, "There's no guarantee." The other guy, I was like, "Bro, is it going to work?" He said, "Yes." Communication is key, man.
You have no idea. There was something about the other guy. I was like, he was like, "Did it work before?" I said, "Yes, it worked for a very long time before." He said, "I don't see any other problem." And he was correct. He was correct. The meeting will drop us if we uh if it's a bad inflation expectation or if Powell and the Fed want to uh pull a black swan out of their ass and talk about rate hikes.
Officials said it was aimed at signaling to Iran that if continuing disrupt oil through the straight, there could be a disruption in targeting their energy facilities, worsening the economic crisis in the country. It was a signal of what could come next. The official said Yeah, I think he made money.
I think he got the part for probably 300. And bro, he was done in 20 minutes. I'm telling you, bro. This guy was a G. See, he came by. He's like, "All right, I'll go get the part." He got the part. I'm sure he got it at a at I don't think it costs more than 300 bucks for the board. So yeah, he made he made 100% in 20 minutes.
He was local, too. It worked out. We were both happy. You think he'll come to Ventura if you pay for travel? But yeah, he was local. That's why it was it was good. But no, I mean that he was very straightforward and that was Yeah, I liked it. Good price. I wasn't going to spend 15k. I said, "Fuck that, dog.
We going to I was going to put a ice maker in there." I was I would have learned how to build an igloo. I ain't doing that, man. Yeah, you could. I mean, there might be another problem, but he even offered me a warranty. So, no, dude. It was This is like a legit company. So, yeah, he was chill. Yeah.
5year warranty. So, at least for the board. But if anything else happened, we'll see. But he looked at the unit. He said it was it didn't look it didn't look bad. He said it just dirty. But then he showed me too on the control board, it was just fried. Like you could see it like corroding and it was like green on certain parts and like some of it was like bent.
I think it just got it got clapped on one of those on one of the um the day they cuz they we had somebody trying to flip the heater and then it like [ __ ] it up. He disabled. No, he said the control board was fried. But the first guy was saying it wasn't even The other guy though was saying it wouldn't even power on.
But like he hooked up the power. He got it working before we changed the board. That's why he's like if you need a to get everything working again, it needed a new control board. I mean, I don't know what's up with the credit card companies, but banks are doing a little better. We are coming down. Bahrain interior air raid sirens to sound.
Citizens urged to head to the nearest safe place. Iranian parliament speaker. The eye for an eye equation has taken root and a new level of conflict has begun. Oh, dude. Is this real? Did you guys see all the meteors? Is that real that it's there was like meteors in like four different states? I saw the one you showed me yesterday.
Spy going down. I don't know. It could be the Iranian comments. They're saying new stage of eye for eye. I mean oil up and spy down on that. What time is it? We're 30 minutes off a euro close. One hour until Powell. Yeah, you're lower than the IEA thing from earlier. the Fed will begin. That will be the black swan today.
So again, I mean, most people on the dot plot in the Fed, uh, they're not, uh, they're not really there. So if that that would be a very decisive shift and it would probably be explained by what's going on. So I think it's low probability, but it's in the cards. I wouldn't put a high rating on it, but if that did happen, I think you're going to get a 1% day, if not larger.
And was it in 13 places? No, dude. Yesterday I saw the Ohio one, but apparently there was like five other places. You guys are saying 13 now. It's crazy, man. Whirlpool. I have I We have Whirlpool. it go every time we go up on it, it goes down the next two weeks. I like it, but it's not the highest quality right now.
I think with other deals like Kimberly and even TAP, I would be more inclined to buy those. Uh, but it's still one that I think it'll move slower. If it ever goes up, I wouldn't buy it. But if it uh you know after we see how this stuff plays out over the next couple of months, if that [ __ ] still stays at uh if it's still lower and then we run out of value, then I'd be down.
TKO Humanana on the high again. You got you're getting these little headlines. Spies just randomly choosing when to react. Iran, bro, on Powell day. This wasn't even Iran, though. Again, this happened last week, dude. This was Israel was like, "Yeah, let's [ __ ] up the gas fields now." Cuz I was I was wondering yesterday.
I was like, "Is Iran do they know it's Powell day? They know when our market opens." But I didn't know. I was like, man, you think the supreme leader is like, we will get in there. We will destroy P's legacy. [snorts] We know they're all waiting. We will show them what to focus on. I now cut the rate.
Cut the oil field. Huh? Oh, no felo. No felo on pow day because we're going to get into the preview in a little bit. I might have a little one I could give you. My name is Sam. I need more money. And I was talking about Whirlpool. NVO I still like, but I don't know. We'll see. Uh cuz yesterday some people are some of the banks are down.
They're saying that all of the uh Ompic even like Eli Lily, they're saying it's overrated or like the demand was overstated, which would be cra because I don't know, man. I feel like we haven't heard about I think Ompic is like a miracle drug, but like I feel like as more and more people are going to these Chinese research chemicals, I don't know how much I feel like the GOPs are kind of leveling out.
So, I'm still a big fan of them. It would be a shame if NVO spent all their money they made. Uh but then Eli Liy is a little bit better, but to some point if like Eli starts getting clapped, I I do think that's going to play out a little differently. But I still have an eye on Envo. I still do like it.
I mean, it's been a while since we got a really good biotech. And usually, again, biotech's making money in the long run, you know, not like biotech needs a drug approval. like biotech already selling and and making money is usually a good one. So, and they do have that dividend even though it's it's adjusted or variable.
S Ei More heat. They're just too expensive. Well, they made them cheaper, but yeah, like with some of it, but yeah, I don't I don't know, man. It's uh it's just like the it's not as like viral as it used to be. And I think that's an interesting part with everything going on. Oh, well, I think the peptides are going to get in the way of it.
Fanny and Freddy removed certain homeowner insurance requirements. Ya, habibi. Some say that's good, some say it's bad. Trump did that though back in the day. remember he got rid of the home home insurance uh payment on like the FHA's. Saudi has already revived more than half of its oil exports via Hormis.
Well, the Fed they already had high rates. That's the thing. Inflation was already ticking up prior. SPY's going down on that. I mean you are you got another reiteration of that Iran comment the eye for an eye thing but and then again I mean Fastley a couple of names are still up but any of the leaders we had in the morning again you're about 70% in the red still you are near the low of the day we'll have a quick POW preview I have a couple of potential statements and I have an expected uh SCP chart to show you guys but MTG down two and a half off one candle MT MTG.
What is this? Magic. I have no idea what MTG is. Marjgerie Taylor Green. Hallebertton in CNC. I don't know what that one was. that they would advert are you talking about mortgage insurance because you had to on FHA so if you put less that was like that was like DoddFrank rule where if you paid less than 20% down on a property you had to pay mortgage insurance PMI so then Trump got rid of it and then Biden put it back on when he came and then I don't know if they got rid of it again or Are you talking about the GLPS?
I mean, go dude, people used to be like they used to hide the GLPs till it became a little bit more popular. But yeah, I don't You could already tell though. I feel like you're like, man, how'd you lose 80 pounds in a week? And now everybody loves the peptide, the younger people. But I don't I don't know, bro.
I don't know. Do you want to hear the tin foil? Do you you I don't want to [ __ ] you guys up with it though with the peptides and the retro true tides and all. I don't want to You guys want me to [ __ ] it up for you. I can [ __ ] it up for all of you right now. If you want listen if you already on them Chinese research chemicals, you might just want to mute this mute this mute the stream for a little bit.
Okay? Cuz once I say this, I can't take it back. Once you hear it, unless you like unless you're already on a prop firm and you gonna be like, "Yeah, Josh, but but it's not." But that way I get ready, Josh. I'm like, "Man, what the fuck?" So, so listen, just I can't go back once I tell it to you. All right.
But it it's a this one is a theory. You know, the prop firms is just kind of reality, but Oh, this one's about This one's an interesting one. Are you ready? Are you ready? So what people are saying is that you have people that a few years ago they avoided getting certain Fizer shots, right? So imagine avoiding certain fizer shots over the last couple of years for you to then inject yourself with these GOPs and retro tides and all of that.
Aka they got you, bro. They got you. They still got you. That's it. They got the stragglers. Mhm. I know it's the tinfoil. I don't know if I believe it. I I would have done it if I wasn't scared of needles, bro. You know that if I didn't feel like I was [ __ ] cooking up crack and injecting it, I would have already been on some peptides.
But yeah, I was like, "Yeah, I can't I can't be doing that. I'd be ashamed of myself." Not because it's like bad, but just I'm like, "What am I doing?" You know, bro, that's like I just couldn't, bro. I would I'm too self-aware if I'm just sitting in my room [ __ ] mixing up vials [ __ ] just tying [ __ ] around my arm.
I'm like, "No, man. See, if you put it between your toes, you get better bone structure." Like, what? It's like, "No, man. I can't. This is not Mhm. Damn, bro. Slapping my forearm to like what? But I really, bro, I've again we've been talking peptides for a minute. That's why I was like I've known about them way way early, bro.
But like I've just not been at the point of being able to uh I've done the spray one. That's the one Tyrese told me. I tried it. It worked for a little bit. It took it was very minimal because you needed to like [ __ ] stack it up month over month and I just I was like, "All right, man." But like, yeah, I would have injected it already, but I can't do it.
That's it. Cuz some of them you need to do it every day. And I'm like, "Every day? You got Chinese chewable peptides in the mail? Nice. [snorts] That's crazy. chewables. You think they change your DNA? I don't know, man. I'm just giving I'm just telling you what the streets is talking about. That's that's all, bro.
I don't I don't really have an opinion on this one. Uh I just heard I just heard this being, you know, I've heard murmurss about this, but like I said, I mean, I told y'all about peptides from the very beginning. So, even when they were kind of going up, we're even talking about the OMIC and the GOP1 trends, which again I like I thought GOP ones are going to still be active for a minute, but now some people are saying the demand is overstated.
But yeah, I'm not uh I've I've seen a lot of good things about peptides. I can't lie. I'm telling you, they look they probably look the most promising out of many of the things out there. But then again, like one of them is like they're just not tested. That's the sad reality of it. Like they're just they're so new.
But you know, GOP1's OMIC that was the beginning of peptides whether you realize it or not. You know, that's why people are saying Retra and then Ompic GOPs are peptides. So that was the beginning. That's the foundation of all of these peptides kind of going. It all starts with Ompic. It all starts with uh Retro True Tide and Eli Lily and NVO what leakage dog what I'm all right man that was what people said in the beginning though remember they used to say you would get ompic poop and people but then again like people would say anything Coinbase plans infrastructure for AI agent payments coin is net got mentioned in that is net finally above dude.
Oh [ __ ] it is on a day like today. I still hate it though every time it comes down but yeah net is kind of running. My name is Sam. I need more money. So I bought Claudebot and I made that [ __ ] mine. All right. Well, spy still slowly going down. Did those plays hit? Actually, I say I didn't take one on the nuclear, but you could have.
And then get ready. Next 15 minutes, your wind one window is going to open up. No, they're the same exact price. Holy [ __ ] Compic is a gateway drug. Yes. Technically, it was a it's a gateway peptide, but then that's where we know like that's why people started testing peptides and using them more because of how successful the GLP1s were.
That that was a peptide. So that's like the same way it operate. All right, I'm going to go to the bathroom. Maybe come back with a little mini felo. Maybe maybe come back with a with a fed preview. You guys want I like Joe. I like listening to this. I hate this dude, but like like I'm telling you, man.
The way he instigates, the way he frames situations, he's an he's a master. He's an artist. CI West Texas Intermediate closer to triple digits. Come on, Joe Matthew Bloomberg. telling you man, the way he does it is just it's art artistry. Oh, they cut me off. Oh, sorry guys. I'm back. I didn't say he was smart.
I think I think he knows how to just He's a master instigator. I think it's artistry. I think he's an artist. I think the way he can frame something and the way he could he's a he has mastered the spin. I've never seen anybody spin as good as he does. The other people, I don't know if it's how they talk.
I don't know if it's how they do it, but like his spin is just like it's amazing. He just knows how to do it, dude. He spins like it's it's I don't know how you can't be fascinated. Like even if it's like could be rage bait, I'm like look at that, bro. That's it's impeccable. Yeah, it really is, bro.
It's it's amazing to watch sometimes. All right. Well, I guess you just get uncle Fair enough. I'll be our B. ear. an finished. . It's the that means you going to kill me if it's warm. Me cheats ski beach on the ark. Want it easy or ib for a second. Keep it real. nd. But I rather have it now. And I ain't never backing down.
a prayer. Hell, let's say it now. Jesus. I put Jesus on the beat so I can . boast in. Amen. Amen. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and gals, I'm going to give you a little file. Just a little one, man. Not anything crazy. Uh, and honestly, bro, it ties into what I was telling y'all yesterday. It's for all of you, bro.
Okay? Like, bro, this is this is I just I need it for everybody, you know? I think we did have good conversations today. And everything we going to finish the days and weeks talking about, just can I remind you all, please, I beg you to believe in change. I'm going to start sounding like Obama. You know that?
But no, man. Change. And you have the power to change the change. You understand? And I just hope all of you believe, man. That's what I want you to believe. I want you to believe that when change comes, you are going to be the initiator of it. Not that you are a victim of change, but that you are going to bring change.
That is a belief I want all of you to have. That's why I believe in starting small. That's why I believe at every level. I don't care who you're up against. That's what I've been saying, bro. Yes, things will be challenging. Not everything is going to be easy. There is things again. The game is rigged in many ways, brother.
But they can't stop you. COME ON, DOG. YOU HAVE no idea. You have no idea, bro. Do you feel me? That's what I believe. I'm telling you, bro. I don't care a market maker. I don't care no Google. I don't care no government. I don't care if there's a government on the west, the east, the Middle East. It don't matter, bro.
You are a human. You are made in a certain image, dog, of God. You have the ability to create. And create means you are going to be the initiator of change. No change is going to make you a victim. Okay? I encourage you all to put this in your beliefs. I really do. And I think it's where however you want to use this.
You could use this for great things in life. You could use it for personal personal relations. You could use it for finances. But this needs to be a core belief at your foundation. You are an initiator of change. And I need you to believe it's going to benefit you. I don't think y'all realize, man, this idea of thinking that change is only going to hurt and that we can't do anything about it.
I'm just I don't believe that and I I'm telling you that's such a bad that is the whole idea is to get you bitter. I and the whole idea of I believe in the devil. I believe in God more but all of it come he just wants you jaded bro. You know that wants you jaded and bitter. You turn on the news. You look around.
You see all this over and over again. Get you to believe into a sense of defeat. I don't agree, bro. I'm No, bro. Change is going to happen. We are going to start the change. You are going to start the change. And guess what? It's going to work out in our favor. I don't care what the odds are, bro. I don't care who had what, who has control, who doesn't have control.
The pro the human will, dog, what is more powerful than that? Well, the moment you say, "I'm going to change something." And I, bro, there's two options. You know what's going to happen? You We're going to change everything. You know why? We are going to change the world. You are going to change your life.
You know why? That's because when I leave, my brother, when I go out and I say, "I'm going to make this change and I go out, there's only one thing, two things are going to happen. I'm gonna come back and it's going to be changed exactly how I said or I'm not I'm going to die. I'm not going to come back.
The lion is going to eat you or it's going to turn its ass around, bro." So, I hope this encourages you. All of you. Every single one of you. That's what I believe in. And I need you to believe in it cuz I'm telling you, bro, you I I feel like the the enemy, the dark, light and dark, bro. And I think the darkness wants to unleash it wants to unleash a flood of bitterness, a flood of feeling hopeless and all this nonsense, bro.
But I'm telling you, you are going to uh when when you have this belief, man, you will be impervious to to any of that. And you are and not only impervious like this ain't just to hype you up, bro. This is real. This is genuinely real. This is facts. This is how the world operates. Because the moment you start believing in this, dog, you are going to be a force to be reckoned with.
And I I look forward to the light and goodness that creates. So change the change, brother. For real. Change the change. And when you do change, bro, it's I need you to start believing it's going to work in your favor. I don't care how many failures. I don't care how slow it is. None of that matters in the grand scope of things.
Cuz if you keep this belief, dog, it's going to work in your favor. So stop this. Anything less, I would I hope you can adopt this belief and refuse to accept anything less. Okay, that's it, man. And the other point I'll tell you because I said this yesterday bro but this is it's true especially bro you know we all see the news you look around there's so many things going on I want a new belief bro I want a new belief it's the same belief I've already believed but for everybody man and I think this is so simple it's easy to capture it's it's harder to live it but man I think all of y'all could do it and I think all of it's real man I think all of it's real all of it's real You all possess it, man.
This world is just the way it play. It's supposed to to chisel you down and slowly chip away to get you to that bitterness. But nah, bro. Uh, it's not. You going to change it. I'm going to change it. We're all going to change it. It's going to work in our favor, too, man. Let's create some light, man.
So, that being said, I'll give you a verse. One you've all heard, whether I have to even give you the exact Bible verse or not. You've all heard this. Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death. You've all heard that, right? You know the Lord death on both sides. The Lord is with you, man.
You've heard that. Can I just explain it a little deeper for you? Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death. Do you know the word though didn't exist? You know, back then they weren't saying though. Although. Although death surrounds me, I will do this. No, that's not what it meant. The word though means especially.
So yeah, you shall fear no evil. Not though, not although it's all around me, it means especially. Doesn't does that change the meaning for you? Does that not That should get you fired up, bro. Cuz you know what that that verse is saying? Especially. Especially when you are surrounded in the valley of the shadow of death.
That is the time that you shall not fear evil. Let alone you should proceed, especially in the evil. That means you are going to go to a whole another a whole another degree. There's another word in there too. Even the translation, it's not saying walk. It's not just stroll through. It's advance. You know, there's people have looked at the translation to even argue it's a military term that that it says that you should be pursuing pretty much, bro, when you are in a valley, especially when you are in a valley, you need to dominate them.
Oh, isn't that something? I hope y'all feel me on it. Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, especially in the in the valley, I'm not going to walk. I'm going to advance. Do you see the difference? It's not telling you to walk, stroll. Oh, this happened. Advance. Make an advancement.
So, Chad, that's all I wanted to tell you. Like I said, make a change. Believe the change is going to work in your favor. I hope you adopt this and especially dude if you got bad all around you, you got a valley all around you, especially in that I hope you could take this mentality say I'm no it's going to work out in my favor cuz the guy who wrote it David every time he was in a valley he did he that's where his advancements were made it's not that you have to sit through suffering it's saying that is an opportunity for you to advance I hope you do advance the mindset advance chance to action.
That's that's your territory to take, brother. So, I hope you feel me. I hope you have a wonderful day and I hope for the rest of your life you believe that you're going to change the change and be an initiator of change and that it's going to work in your favor, my friend. So, take that to the bank.
That is your philosophy, ladies and gentlemen. Uh, make sure you guys are subscribed. We're live Monday through Friday, 30 minutes before open. Drop your thumbs up on the video. You're all mobile. Press hard chat. X out the chat. Hit the thumbs up button. Second link for the nightly watch list in my channel.
And that's it, man. That's it, bro. That's it. That's a quick FO, bro. That's a quick power fo. We hit a low on it, too. Usually, we go up on it, but ah, it is what it is, bro. It is what it is. So, that being said, let me get you some of your preview materials. Send out another alert. So, this isn't going to take too long.
I've I've shared a lot of it with you guys already. though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death. I know net I don't know if it reacted to that Coinbase news but then fastly squeezing. I mean that helped. Those are all up, dude. Even from the uh even from the damn Instagram video. Oh, those jacked up.
See, so you could make those free or you could keep pushing it. So all even the fast the shitty Fastley's I didn't want those, but those are up 100%. [snorts] So yeah, either push them or make them free. That one's up to you. See, this is where you get some real learning in there. All righty. I got to get my Google Docs.
I don't even need I mean I talked the anything I had written down we have pretty much discussed but let's see or is it we give it another minute or two let me check the other ones Yeah, same thing with the net calls. Oh [ __ ] they filled that quick. Okay, I made the net free. I'm going push the Fastly.
Not a recommendation. My Fastleys are smaller. Metapop. But you can't stop. Oh, wait. I have two sets of these. Well, [ __ ] Yeah, they're filling them quick, too. I'm putting in higher asks. All right. Well, that's cool. That's cool. All right. Well, Chad, are you ready for your Fed preview? So let's start with the words.
The words are very simple. Understand the situation that we have arrived to with all of this. Okay. PPI was hot this morning. And so now you had your first indicator of oil being higher. That is finally showing up in some set of the economic data. So that's going to factor into this whole PCE inflation that we've been talking about.
And if you didn't watch the video last night that was available on the Instagram, it was on the YouTube shorts that was there for all of you. Essentially, the big thing that matters today is that they are going to come out with a summary of economic projections and that is going to tell you what the Fed thinks is going to happen with inflation.
So, if they're worried about this war, that will show up higher on the PCE. if they believe it's going to be more short-lived, maybe transitory, then that's going to be a little bit lower. So, that's the general idea there. But other than that, uh it's that's the big part that I care about today. So, that's why I'm saying PPI coming in, that's your first indicator that you have some of this oil inflation showing up.
Now, I don't think it's going to affect their decision too much, but you never know. He he might bring it up. they might ask him about it. But the other part you have to understand is that coming into this Fed meeting, we were already above the target in terms of inflation. So it's not as if we started off this year, ended last year with inflation below the Fed's target.
We have actually been above it. So now already above target inflation, then you have this war drama. So that's setting up the stage of why they would be worried about inflation and how they're going to kind of communicate that. Iran Argotchi spoke with EU Kalis discussed region and straight of horm.
So oil's dropping on that. Uh again Iran talking to the EU. So there's that. But now the other part the weak jobs report these are this is again like I'm telling you this is the setup coming into today you know kind of going over the last couple days and weeks you need to understand what is the the pathway that has led us here to this Fed meeting right you've above target inflation PPI today a war conflict oil going up you could even tie it into what you've already seen the Fed do with Russia and Ukraine?
And then you now have everything with this jobs report that was also a weak labor market emerging. If anything, that supports the idea of the rate cut. But that being said, one rate cut this year, one rate cut next year. That is the expectation. So this is one of the easiest ones you could look for beyond just the PCE.
And I'll remind you of this when we uh bring up the uh chart uh with the projected SEP. If you price in more than one rate cut, that's bullish. If you price in less than one rate cut, that will be bearish. And then like I'm telling you, the the real big problem, it's going to be if there is uh just quite simply if they say anything about a rate hike, I don't think the market will like that.
And then again, you have a this is your window too. right now, the next 20 minutes, you might get a little extra volatility ahead of the Fed meeting. It kind of sucks that you're uh it kind of sucks that you're getting uh a lot of these Iran headlines right now. So, one rate cut for this year, one rate cut for next year.
That is the base case that is priced in and expected. If the Fed indicates anything different, then that will be that that will change some things. But the best case is that when you look at the dot plot, even from the last couple of meetings, not one of the 18 19 Fed me Fed Fed members, governors, not one of them is expecting that you would have a rate hike.
That's why everybody's kind of confident in the whole one cut now, one cut later, that's your minimum. But that's why it would be shocking if somehow these guys are like, you know what, we need a rate hike. that would change some of the composition of the dot plot which has already kind of flowed in one direction quite consistently over the last couple of months.
So hopefully you're following along with that. And now let's talk about what you got to look for. So I'm going to show you how to get there. You already know this. If you don't know, uh you should watch a lot more. I would love for you to become prepared at this. But you're going to go to the Fed website.
monetary policy, meeting calendars and information. And then today when it comes out, since we haven't had a Yeah, we haven't had a summary of economic projections. This will be the first one this year actually. You know, the last time you had a SCP, it was in December. So when the meeting comes out today, you're going to see something that says produ proje projection materials and then that's what we want to look for.
So the projection materials, this is what I'm going to do. Somebody even asked me yesterday, they're like, "Are you going to look at the statement?" I don't really care about the statement. There is potential changes to the statement that I'll go over with you, but I'm not I'm not going to really uh I'm not going to bother with the statement.
Uh I will check afterwards. It depends on what we get. But the first thing I'm going to in the next 13 or 17 minutes, uh it is going to be it's going to be this. So keep that in mind, my friends. I don't I dude I'm tell a lot of you are saying the stream is lagging. It sucks because we are going over the key info.
So unfortunately that sucks. I hope you guys get what I just said, though. This is the first thing I'm going for today. This is the as far as how I'm going to interpret it, what I'm going to be looking for, getting an idea of what to expect from Powell, as well as what the market's going to do. The SCP has all of the answers.
So, number one, like I told you guys in the video, PCE inflation. So, we're going to be on 2026, even 2027. Uh the longer run inflation hasn't changed, but you're going to look for these numbers. And essentially, if it doesn't go higher than the projection I'll show you next, all is well and the market might be surprised.
If it comes in lower, everyone's going to be excited even though it will still be higher. That's my prediction is that this number is going to go high, but it's not going to be as high as people were worried about and then that's going to cause a better than feared reaction. But now, somebody brought it up.
I don't know if you just say this a lot, but we did have this discussion last night. What about stagflation are so maybe before that keep in mind federal funds rate one cut this year one cut next year we also are going to have a projection for that. So that's the other place you're going to want to look just in case if the worst case scenario happens this number is going to go up.
So instead of going lower, it's you're going to watch these numbers increase. Uh and if they increase by a certain amount at changes, oil starting to knife again. The other headline was the uh Tamagotchi or Aragoti speaking with EU Callis actually. Oh, that's why. Well, they [ __ ] jacked the prices on me.
Damn it. Damn it. I'm gonna go for the shitty ones. Oh, come on. These mother efforts, bro. They just moved the price on me. Okay. not a recommendation, but yeah. And then yeah, you got Walt Disney headlines. So, here's the deal. Watch for the Fed funds, right? But now stagflation because there's also going to be a GDP estimate and the GDP estimate that is also expected to become lower cuz they raised it last time and that surprised people.
So here's the deal though. If the inflation expectation, if we know GDP is probably going to come down, we know the inflation expectation is going to go up. As long as inflation doesn't go higher and then the GDP comes down, that's fine. That's all within the cards. But if they drop GDP and then you have a higher thanex expected inflation, that's where you're going to run into problems.
That's where the stagflation debate. Well, like I'm saying, if they really want to [ __ ] everybody up, that that is that could be something that you end up seeing. So, we'll find out. But now, let's look at the projections. Let me get it up. Yeah, bro. The bottom was exactly 30 minutes in. That's crazy.
Well, well, well. So, uh, this is from Goldman Sachs, but this is a pretty solid projection. So imagine the chart I just showed you. This is an estimate. All right. So now pretty much GDP it's expected to come in 0.1 lower or 0.2 lower than last time. That is a range that you could go 2027 that might not move it too much.
So like I'm saying anything now if like they put GDP back at like 1.8 and then they jack up the inflation that will be bad. So now they're expecting the December or the forecast for March to go from December's 24 to about 3% as high as 3.1. So 3% is going to be the sweet spot. 3.1 is going to be the highest.
But now you got to think about it. Anything above like 3.1 I would say that's the danger zone. So if you see right in the next 20 minutes, 10 minutes, if the PCE comes in at 3.1, uh that would 3.1 or higher, I would say that's more of a negative. The Fed's a little bit more shocked. Anything at 3.0 and lower, I don't think that's going to be too It will be bad.
That will be hawkish. That will be a a what a 20 25% increase from the last meeting, but then that's still not going to be as bad as you would expect with some of these higher oil prices and everything else going on. And then core isn't supposed to go up that much. What core could go up, but remember core is excluding food and energy.
What's gone on right now is that food and energy hasn't gone up. Uh or food and energy is the only thing that gone that went up. So you exclude it, it's not going to move the same way. And then that's the other thing you got to think about is that what happens if they raise the core estimate? Have have you thought about this?
So what would you say would happen if they raise the core estimate? Do you have any ideas? So what is that saying? So if they raise the core estimate almost just as high as they raised everything else, what would that be implying? Uhhuh. Longerlasting. Think about what we talked about. Like I'm telling you, if this is going to be not just a shock and it's going to be a bigger economic problem, it's going to lead into other things.
That's when it hits the supply chain, affects demand. That's where one thing starts impacting the other. Then the food goes up and then everything starts to go up. That so core, if they jack up the core, that could be a signal that they are uh that could be a signal that they're expecting less transitory or more of a of a bigger conflict kind of arising from all of this other stuff.
So, think about it. That's the That's all. And then the Fed funds rate pretty much it was around 34 last time 337. Uh it's it's pretty much going to all be the same. This will be implying uh what's it called this or 33 34. It'll all be implying one cut or not. If this goes higher or lower than 33 or 31 for next year that if it goes higher then [ __ ] Uh and if it goes really high we have a problem.
But if it could stay within this range pretty much you have it till 3.5 a quarter point. So 35 will still kind of be in range depending on how you want to look at it. That's the higher end. But then anything above that, Houston, we have a problem. Anything below that, that'll be even better. Maybe there's other things that they like.
So, tada. That's the main part. Like I'm saying, this is what I I care about. Otherwise, uh there is estimates. So, here could be uh one of the expected statement changes. So instead of saying the economy expanded at a solid pace, they might change it to moderate and then they'll say they'll acknowledge the jobs report.
It moved up but remains low. Again, I don't think this stuff is as important as the SCP. That's why I would pay more attention to that. And then they might add there's two ways. There's a couple of interpretations on how they are going to mention the war. They may say the implication of the war with Iran for energy and US economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term, it's likely to create upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.
That's one alternative. Uh but that's if you ask Goldman, if you ask Morgan Stanley, uh they're going to give you uh what's it called? They're they're not going to mention Iran. So there's one where they mention it, but they not directly. So some people think they may say war in Iran directly. Others might just say concerns about global surprise of crude have contributed to an increase in oil prices since the committee met.
I think it's going to be a mix of both of them. I think you're going to they're not I don't think they're going to say Iran. They may say concerns about global supply and transport and they're going to talk about short-term pressure. Uh other than that, the again they're going to acknowledge the unemployment rate.
If they say edged up but remains low, that's more dovish than not. Uh, Deutsch Bank on the low. Let's see. Yeah, DB with a candle. Trump expected to lift summer gas regulations to curb energy transport. Fitch is making a comment. So, yeah, that's what to expect. But like I'm telling you, the uh I'll have the projections up from you, but just again 3.0 no to 3.1 if the PCE inflation is higher there again if even if core comes in above 2726 you're going to have a problem and then like I'm telling you depending on what you get from uh the uh total Fed's fund rate if they start talk if there's any implication so what I'm showing you now as we read through it in the next five minutes we could if these numbers all break you're going to then yeah then people are going to get worried what Powell is going to talk about but if all of stays in line.
I do think everyone's scared, but none of these numbers are scary as forecasted. And that's where I think people will chill a little bit and then we're going to see what uh what Powell ends up saying and then the ball will be in his court. But like I'm telling you, first thing I'm going to go for is the uh what's it called?
First thing I'm going to go for is the uh Fed futures or not the Fed futures, the uh SEP. That's going to be the one thing I care about right away. Today has been a beautiful day. It's always a beautiful day. No, those two statements were from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. So each of those banks put out their own statements or projections.
Okay. Well, four minutes. You guys, are you ready? And we'll get everything ready up here. I might I might just have it on the other screen and then I'll go through it and show you as it comes out because we're going to need to compare. This is just a projection. Then spy holding those premiums are still up.
No [ __ ] And then bro, your boy Fastley, what's up, man? So yeah, I'm glad we pushed that one. Those are still up. And then again, you could make I made the net free already. Zero faith he'll rock the again. Oil dropped a lot too. Oil's back to red. Are oil is literally in the red right now. Uh meanwhile, every index is in the red, too.
Ah, so get ready. 3 minutes until pow. So again, POW is going to come out and then I think these first 30 minutes, depending on the SCP, that's where you'll get the most amount of activity. Uh, and then from there, uh, we're going to, uh, yeah, we're just going to hope that might be the most of the volatility unless the SCP kind of makes this a little crazy.
That is the delayed chat. Yeah, you guys are going to be at a delay unless you're on the locked in. So, plan accordingly. I would encourage you to go to the Fed website uh, and you again, if you use the information I told you, you could work uh, in real time for your for yourself. But yeah, you guys are getting the stream at a delay right now.
So yes, by about 50 seconds or so. Oil might I mean oil's already red. That's kind of crazy. Again, the meeting of meeting the EU EU callis in Aragoti. I think that started to move things. All right, about two minutes a little less. Here we go. That should be one OF OUR FINAL FOULS. I'm excited, bro.
Let's see. I don't know if they're going to drop a bomb or not, dude. Anything can happen here. Anything can happen here. So again, just go to the Fed website. Uh you should even then you have one minute, but you should Fed website produ projection materials. That's going to be the first thing you're going to be looking for.
And like I'm saying, I'm keeping the preview up. So 3130 on normal PCE 2627. And as long as the rates aren't above 3.3, that'll be your terminal. All right, man. Less than a minute now. The non-delayed is on the locked in. You got to hit upgrade your membership. It'll be there. But you might want to wait now.
Wait. And because it's coming out now, I'd go to the Fed website instead of trying to get a membership if you want to look for the play on this one. Alrighty, 30 seconds. Oh, those plays went up like 10% real quick or 10 to 20. They're just dancing around now. Fresh pow pow. The last pow pow. 15 seconds.
Bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump. Five 4 3 two one and we're off. Leaves discount rate. I'm going to the projection materials. I already have the headlines. All right. All right, hold on. I'm going straight to the projection. Oh, what the page not found? Oh, they're [ __ ] do it again, bro. They delayed it again on at least the PCE 2.7.
Is that core? That's normal. And they kept core the same. Oh, dude. It's hella low. Yeah, HTML has it. The Fed funds rates a little higher at 34. So, some one of the dots is [ __ ] up. A little higher. That could be your bearish part. There's the dot. The median for 2026 came in at 3.4, but the core PCE is not even bro.
They didn't even lower. They've raised the GDP. Huh? What? No. Yeah, that's not I don't think this is bad. So, I think better than feared. He's going to Powell's probably going to come in a lot calmer. I think it's good. Like I was telling you, this was my expectation that it wasn't going to be as bad as people were wor.
I haven't read the statement yet, but the GDP came in higher at 2.4. Am I looking at the right one? Let me make sure. Cuz I this this seems a little too good. It's not. Again, like I'm telling you, the core and everything else. Yeah. So, like I'm telling you, bro, the GDP came in higher. So, they did not lower the GDP.
That came in at 2.4. Unemployment, they're not even worried about that. The PCE came in at 2.7. Like I was telling you, bro, 3 to 3.1. That's what we were coming into getting ready for this. So, it's 2.7 is nothing. Uh, and then core bar core didn't even budge. Core went up by2. We had a 2.7. So, maybe they're a little bit worried about that.
And then the terminal that 34 it's still like it's with like I said anything above 35 that would have been really bad but that just means one of the dots moved somewhere but even the 2027 everything is pretty much intact but that is not I would say zero sense of panic out of the Fed to be honest. Oh they just killed the premiums on that.
Those just ran and then dropped. So yeah the reaction I mean you got up to VWOP oil kept reaction reacting but like I'm saying that wasn't bad at all. Let's see the statement available suggests the economy has been expanding at a solid pace. Jobs remain low and unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.
Inflation remains somewhat they didn't even change the statement to uh to highlight any of that. What inflation remains somewhat elevated? They didn't even say I don't even think oh they said Middle East the implications of developments in the Middle East are uncertain. the committee is attentive to risk.
So they didn't even say anything about short-term or long-term or oil. They didn't mention Iran, just the Middle East. Uh and then yeah, but uncertainty about the e economic outlook remains elevated, but again, unemployment rate has been little change. Job gains have remained low. That's their way of saying the the last jobs report.
So it was slightly different than all of it. I didn't even go through the dot plot yet. Steven Moran was the only descent he favor who preferred a lowering of the rain. Damn, Moran still wanted the rates lower. Come on, Stephen. So, yeah, the dot plot. Nobody wanted a rate hike. So, there you go. Who was the dot that moved?
Let me see. I'm trying to let me I have a projection of the dots but yeah so one person went up somewhere so that's the projection that's the dot that came in so nobody went higher but one of the guys who should have been lower they stepped up a little bit higher but that's it but that's why that's why the rate came in at 34 so it should have been a little lower there you should have had way less people or at some lower rates to do the average, but it was like a dot or two that changed that created it.
I know. Literally, the premium went down. We spiked up. The premium had a run and then they slashed the calls. So, give it a little bit or get out soon. But I'm going to hold it. I mean, Powell is kind of a lame duck. He is leaving, but that whole dot plot was that was [ __ ] that was water, bro. That was not That was so watered down for every That was way different than what that could have been.
So yeah, get ready now. We're going to have Powell here in 25 minutes. But I do think first expectation that they're they're not showing any fear or maybe they're playing the same transitory lack of reaction game they played during Russia Ukraine in 2021. But I like I was telling you, I expected the market and people to be a lot more fearful than the Fed.
But right now, the first implication coming into Powell, I don't think he's going I don't think they're going to give off a sense of urgency or worry because none of these numbers at least on the the dot plots not really indicating that or through the uh Fed funds rate or the or the projections. Kind of crazy.
I thought it would be I thought it could have came in at three and then a little bit higher, but they dude they raised the GDP. The core PCE stayed the same practically or core went up and then normal PCE with food and energy stayed the same. LNG oil is still going down. SPY is tweaking a little bit.
I'm surprised. I'm really surprised on the spy one just well even the premiums because 10 minutes ago you were up at the same price level. Yeah. at Fed futures see 21 basis points at easing in 2026 unchanged. I think Powell's going to be a dove. He's going to be a little puppy dog. I think we'll find he could [ __ ] it up though cuz now he's done this though before where he could have cover by a dovish release and then he might be very hawkish.
But at the same time, none of this is indicating though that like Fed worry does not look to be uh to be in the cards right now. Okay, I'm getting the feeds up. Oh [ __ ] we already got one. No way. All right. Well, there's one already, but I don't know how this is going to I don't know if this one's going to be the fastest one, but we could use this one to compare.
So, even then, I should be able to get you this even if you guys are on the delay. You know, I am pretty good at optimizing the feed. So, you guys should still be on track for the other one. But now, too, you guys could go get the locked in. Now, you got the info. If you want the Powell in real time, you're going to have to move over to that one.
Just hit upgrade your membership. But, like I'm saying, if I could get the fast enough feed, usually we get a jump on that just by default. So, I wouldn't stress too much, but it all depends how you're trading it. At this point, any trade is going to emerge from what he says, whether it's a lot better or a lot worse.
Like, if again, fear of the war, longerlasting inflation, but again, the SCP just has zero indication of that. Well, they didn't even the job. He said the jobs recent weakening but even though statement changes towards jobs, Middle East, all of that uh it's not uh it's not there. Google introducing design is Adobe reacting to that.
Adobe's came back down. Something about a Google release that's going to compete with uh Adobe and then Fig on the low two act. Fig is actually taking it a little harder. So Figma got hit harder than Adab on that. Is net still going, bro? Bro, that was a banger. I'm surprised, man. Locked in. Go to the locked in feed.
There's a a whole another stream. But, uh, dude, that's crazy. So, net and Fastly, bro, even from that damn Instagram video, I put it on YouTube, too. The prices were already high. I think you had one day of cheaper. the net premiums came down and then the Fastly premiums, they all stayed the same from that video.
But yeah, those all hit. Again, if you're not on stream, I would I would run the uh I would I would run it up on uh the Instagram for a little bit. Silver, you need silver and gold. You need the dollar to come down if you want like the real big moves. But we'll see. I mean, what Powell what he says might be able to uh factor into this a little bit.
Coinbase ripping again. Net started going up with the other one. Some European companies running S&P one rate cut outlook. S&P pairs losses. Is it still up? Where are we at right now? You're down 6 on the SPY, point4 on the Russell, 0.5 on the NASDAQ, and then 08 on the uh on the Dow Jones. Oh, there you go.
I see you made it. Yeah. So, the locked in live stream is going to be in real time. So if you already have it, yeah, you just got to come to the stream again. Figma is still dropping and Adobe now on that Google news. They just wanted to kill some of that prem yesterday. They came down to the did they really?
Cuz I remember they were like the fastly just kept going up. The Nets came down for a little bit. You had like a day or two after that Instagram video, but those is ripped, bro. Those were all 180%. So, I made my net free. I'm pushing the Fastly. Not a recommendation. Actually, what's net at? I have old ones that are still There's some short terms that are still dead.
Oh, I guess tomorrow is what? Thursday, Wednesday. I don't know. You might get lucky. Adobe Google came out with something called Stitch. And apparently it's like a competitor. All right. Well, that's the first feed that's live. I was like, "Where's my other one? Oh yeah, he's going to begin in 18 minutes.
I'll try to stay for the MU earnings. Yeah, I don't give you anything on that chain. [ __ ] that. Welcome. So, if you just got the locked in, go to the other stream. Click on this channel and hit live. You'll see one that says real time. Some of you had some problems with that. Nothing burger. I I mean I think it was surprising in the sense of that that was not as bad as people were thinking, which could have been expected considering how fearful people got, but the market isn't really reacting.
And then I'm keeping up net and Fastly, bro. These are starting to get a little [ __ ] jumpy. So, I already made net free, bro. I could have got way more on my nets, actually. Which is I don't know why they scam me. I hate being the first one to make them free. But yeah, now the net is all paid for, but still, I could have got another 100%.
Somehow it's the same price. Uh just go to the Federal Reserve website and go to go to uh the meetings and information and then hit projection materials. It's all out right now. So this all came out. I mean again market's not really reacting too much but in general uh if you look uh if you just are looking at this whole scenario the Fed is not the first indication is that they are not expecting a longer run increase to oil prices which reflects some of the longerdated futures and options pricing but they don't even they don't even think that GDP is going to come down.
So remember what I was telling you guys in the beginning. I was expecting that GDP was going to come down. Most people did. They've raised it. So and then even core all of it. Bro, it's kind of nuts. [clears throat] It's amazing. Oil. Yeah, oil did pop. Spy down. India orders gas. Iran president says attack on infrastructure will yield nothing.
Qatar defense fire in Raz Leafon due to Iranian targeting. Oil just sticked and spyed down. Is that it? Let me check. Feel like you're going to get a Trump one. Civil defense is dealing with a fire in the Ross Leafon area. I see that. There's no way that [ __ ] caused that. How do I You're on that right.
You're on that right now. If I see you in this chat, I think Ros Leafon is their LNG. Yeah. So that I think that's kind of like the south pars and then Trump to temporarily ease rules on we had that earlier. I think it was that maybe again if Saudi or Qatar's uh energy and LNG is gonna get targeted.
Sorry. I'm surprised we're not going to hit Trump or hear Trump again. Yeah, civil defense. I think again uh Ros Leafon is the area for Qar's LNG. So it's pretty much a retalatory attack of the uh South Pars thing we got cuz that was your first again oil just went red and then now that just popped oil back to.3 surprisingly that brought the market more last I was not expecting the uh I was not expecting a warhead line would have moved you more than the very dovish Powell.
Again, I was expecting more hawkishness from that statement in SCP, but here we here we are. Emergency cuts. I don't think he'll do emer cuts are foolish right now. That's what I'm I'm surprised. You know, I like Fed [ __ ] and I thought he was a little bit more reasonable. You know, I thought that like, you know, he just said I thought he had a lot of evidence for some of the stuff he would say, but I'm surprised he even advocated for a rate cut unless they know something we don't.
But I doubt it to a certain degree. Uh but like yeah, he I don't think a rate cut is a good idea right now. You only cut rates if demand is getting destroyed. And I just don't think we've reached that point yet. But yeah, so I'm uh I don't think you get an emergency rate cut. The worry you should be worried about is a rate hike.
If Powell says anything indicating rate hikes, that's where it's going to be uh a little bit more detrimental. All of it, the whole curve. I agree, bro. That was a very soft report. So, they're all very I mean, considering you had oil, considering, like I was telling you, the inflation leading into it was already high.
The job maybe the jobs report going negative freaked them out. That was Zillow. Uh Zillow with a pop 1.5. Check any of the other real estate stocks. There's a one penny one, but you'd want the 5 cents or the nine. Someone already took the other one. One penny is gone. Yeah, Zillow. That's 2% not triggered yet.
Yeah. Zillow. No. Zillow favorability option. I dude I love how they have a do they have they didn't always have a security guard there. Powell he kind of did last time but not saying much but it's been a while since that's why I was saying unless they talk rate hikes I don't think you're going to get a crazy you know bigger number percentage move but if he pulls out the black swan we could get one.
Otherwise, it it has been a while. That's why I think the first 30 minutes after now and how these all play out, it's just uh you know, we we don't really get too like crazy of moves to be honest. Well, nine more minutes till Powell again. Zillow on the high. the long end was about to squeeze until uh you know this conflict.
So I mean we'll see if Powell could ease that up but you would probably you need low low energy. I mean you're not going to get a long end getting a bid without without high energy. And you got a Walmart one. BM launch from Shiraz ballistic missile. It's there to make sure the door is shut. They might.
I mean, again, Powell is a lame duck. I mean, this his efficacy, him being the Fed chair, I mean, that's it. This is this is gone after after today. You'll get one more meeting with Powell, but this will be his that this was his last dot plot. So, he could still be a governor and he might still have a vote or still be one of the dots if he stays on, but this is going to be his last time as the Fed chair, you know, having one of these dots come out.
So either way, that's where remember we were talking about it at the beginning of the year, uh, even end of last year a little bit. It's not like Powell, you know, the closer you get to running out of power, the less effective or kind of important. So there's still some drama that people have tied into all of this, but it's still not necessarily uh, you know, it's still kind of paints him in the light where his job is closer to being done than than beginning, I would say.
Where's my other feed? Well, dude, that dot plot was so chill. Compass dropped its lawsuit against Zillow, ending legal fight over the home listing rules. Ah. How did Compass go? Yeah, because it looks like only Zillow moved out of those real estate stocks. Fastley Net still Havibi. Williams will be the chair.
It does go to the VP, but there is a there is a possibility. I mean, as far as like authority, the president can appoint a m like a interimm chair essentially if they delay Kevin Walsh. So, I don't I think it might backfire regardless. Otherwise, Williams would be the guy. And then Powell, we don't know his full decision, but he should stay on the board.
Oh, where is Coupang the damn Kevin Worsh play. All right. What time is it? Five minutes. Five minutes. How well it's indicating I mean no rate cut change off the SCP. The most surprising part right now. When the news conference begins, the chair will make a brief opening statement and then take your question.
If you have a question, please raise your hand and Michelle Smith will be standing right there. will call on you. Um, when you are called on, please wait for a microphone to be passed to you. There will be one on either side. Kathy Wood. And then also, please take this time to silence any phones, computers, cameras, anything that could make noise during the briefing.
I will be back shortly with a You should not allow them to have phones or cameras. Well done. Didn't know you were back there. Well done. Yeah. But yeah, the biggest surprise was that despite the war, despite $100 oil, all these other factors, they uh the PCE estimates did not go up. So, it's a it's a very odd situation when you think about it.
Uh and GDP estimates even went up as well, too. So, that's kind of where we are on this. But that's why so Powell based off the SCP, based on the statement, he's going to address the war. or he's going to talk about uncertainty, but he's probably not going to uh he's probably not going to warn about it too much.
And there is not really uh any indication that he will be raising rates or cutting rates even. It just everything kind of stayed the same. Oh. C. I don't know. He didn't hit me up yet. They already posted it on Instagram before telling me. I think he's fine. We were just charging that thing. Yeah, bro.
He's good. If you go to social media first, you're fine. No, that was a real one, man. Two minutes, everybody. Two minutes. I do remember when we heard the trade notification. The delay is about a minute, a little less. I don't have any of the other uh none [snorts] of the other I'll get. I have a couple up here right now that I'm looking at.
So, I should even with the delay, I'm going to probably have the faster stream. I'll whittle down the time. Otherwise, you're going to have to go to the locked in if you want the real time. But again, I mean, at this point, it depends on what he says with oil or if he follows along with uh if he just follows along the theme of what's going on right now.
Okay, I got another one. Watch the bald heads. Get ready. 20 seconds. We'll see if he's late or not. Takes him about like 30 seconds to get to the podium. 37 seconds on average. Okay. Nope. I got one. Oh, wait. They're all on. [clears throat] Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. . The US economy has been expanding at a solid pace.
little changed in recent months and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Today, the FOMC . [clears throat] The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate. And ments. Available indicators suggest tha.
In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. In our summary of economic projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4% this year and 2.3% next year, somewhat stronger than projected in December. In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.4% in February and has changed little since late last summer.
in the pace of job generally show little change in recent months. In our SEP, the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.4% at the end of this year and edges down thereafter. Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to [clears throat] and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in February and tha.0%.
These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs. isen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. . Dude, I was going to say the median projection in the SCP for total PC inflation this year is 2.7% and 2.2% next year, a bit higher than projected in December.
%. From last September through December, we lowered our policy rate 3/4 of a percentage point, bringing it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral. This normalization of our policy stance should continue to help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2%.
But the implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. Too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy. I took a little bit. I'm still holding. We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our mandate.
, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path of the federal funds rate under what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario for the economy. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4%.
4% at the end of this year and 3.1% at the end of next year unchanged from December. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty and they are not a committee plan or decision. ating basis. To conclude, the Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy. Maximum employment and stable prices.
We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2% goal, and keeping longerterm inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We at the Fed will continue to do our jobs with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people.
That's a new one. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions. That's a new ending. Objectivity. Thank you, Colobby Smith of the New York Times. There's been some debate about whether the Fed should look through the inflation that will come from higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Is that the right approach at this juncture? And to what extent does the fact that inflation has been above target for roughly 5 years now influence the committee's thinking around this? So uh first let me say we're well aware of um uh the performance of inflation over the last few years and how a series of shocks have have interrupted progress that we've made over time and uh that happened most recently with tariffs and then and now there will be some effects on inflation coming forward.
Um the the thing that's really important that we see this year is progress uh on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one-time effects on prices of tariffs go through the system, go through the economy. That's the main thing we're looking for going into this exercise. And we need to be seeing that uh to you know to sort of understand that we actually are making progress because on net we didn't make progress.
And if you look at total inflation, sorry, total core inflation, it's about 3%. And some big chunk of that between a half and 3/4 is actually tariff. So we're looking for progress on that. The question of whether we look through uh the energy inflation doesn't really arise until we have kind of checked that box.
It of course is kind of standard learning that you look through energy shocks, but that's always been dependent on on uh inflation expectations remaining well anchored. And I think now it's also dependent on on what you mentioned which is that broader context of of 5 years now of inflation above target.
We have to keep all of those things in mind and the question of looking through when it does arise will be one to approach not lightly but you know in in the context that you mentioned. And just on the SEP, can you help us make sense of why there is still a bias to cut from most officials this year despite the upward revision to headline and core inflation and the essentially unchanged forecast for growth in unemployment.
I'm just curious kind of what what's the genesis behind the need what's the need for the cut? Yeah. So, you know, there are 19 people and so 19 reasons, 19 individual submissions, you know, but but and if you notice, um the median didn't change, but there was actually some movement toward a meaningful amount of movement toward toward fewer cuts by by people.
So, four or five people went from two to one, let's say, two cuts to one cut. Um and each person has individual uh you know stories behind behind what they want to do but essentially it is that you know the the the the forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation. Not as much as we had hoped but some progress on inflation.
It should come as we start to see in the middle of the year uh progress on on tariffs you know going through once and then tariff inflation coming down. That's we should be seeing that and you know the the rate forecast is conditional on the performance of the economy. So if we don't see that progress then you won't see the rate cut
uh Howard. Uh thank you [clears throat] Howard Schneider with Reuters. Just to follow up a little bit and to be clear, um, is the higher inflation pencled in here for 2026 solely the result of the oil shock or or or something else? So, that's going to be part of it. Uh, but, you know, that wouldn't be most of core, right?
So, the oil shock for sure shows up here. Some of that will be in core as well. But yes, but no, there there's also just just the the the feeling that we haven't seen um you know the progress that we had hoped for on uh on core goods uh and on on tariffs and on the rest of it. You know, we've we've so for whatever reason people did write up their inflation forecast that will certainly be tied to uh events in the Middle East and the price of oil, but it's also I think a reflection of of um the slow progress we've seen on on tariffs, which we believe we will see.
It's just a question of how long it takes for them to get all the way through the economy and it takes it just takes some time. Right. And is the is the lack of change in the SEPs again just to explicate this a little bit more due to the expectation that the oil portion of this will pass through or more out of concern that there is a potential blow uh to consumption and growth coming in the form of wealth effects with the stock market down
gas prices you know. diverting spending from other parts of the economy. Um, so I I on the I didn't get the second part of your question that well that that consumers are going to be potentially diverting money to gasoline from other parts of the economy. There could be a growth shock uh or a redistribution of spending there that can hit consumption wealth effects as well.
I guess I'm wondering are you not is the rate forecast not changing because you think the oil shock is going to be temporary or because you want to be sure your position in case growth starts to slow? So, and the thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows. You know, the economics effect could be bigger.
They could be smaller, they could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don't know. So, people are writing down something that seems to make sense to them, but have no conviction that that you to your point, if we have high uh, you know, if we have a long period of much higher gas prices, that's going to weigh on consumption.
That'll weigh on disposable personal income and it'll weigh on consumption. But we don't know if that's going to happen. It something quite different than that. we might have much lower than expected pass through. So people write down, you know, this is one of those SCPs where a number of people mentioned if we were ever going to skip an SCP, this would be a good one because we just don't know.
So I I wouldn't say there's a a conviction that this is going to go through quickly or not quickly. It just you got to write something down and this is something that is uh that people wrote down. Uh and so and you know we don't debate how long how do you do that? we wouldn't be able to debate what the length of or size of these effects would be.
We just have to kind of make an individual statement and also you know what you've written down before will be you'll be reluctant to move too far away from that just because you don't know it's so unclear what the direction from this particular end will be. Meanwhile, the economy has the growth has been solid.
Um, and inflation that the overshoot is mainly from from the goods and tariffs and you know, the labor market uh is um the unemployment rate of course is little changed since September. Um, you have very very low break even rate apparently for new jobs with little growth in either demand or supply. But the US economy is is doing you know pretty well.
It's just we don't know what the effects of this will be and really no one does. Dodge the demand destruction question. Oh, dude, that's crazy. Mr. Chair, in the past the staff has suggested that focusing on terrorist higher oil prices um they have [clears throat] a hit to consumption which Howard was talking about but that's somewhat offset by increases to domestic production.
Wonder if you could talk about that dynamic especially today. Tell us about demand. How much US production is is happening right now. So the first thing is there is you know the original thinking the the the long-standing thinking put it that way is that you do look through energy shocks but as I mentioned that's condition on inflation expectations and that kind of thing.
So sorry your question was the what the staff is saying about and has said in the past about so there'll be an offset offsets. Yeah. So that's that's true. Uh you know we have um we're a net exporter of energy right. So any any effects on employment and economic activity and spending would be offset to some extent by the fact that our our oil companies will be more profitable and they may even do more drilling.
If you ask oil companies about doing more drilling though, they're going to want to see, you know, a a consistent rate rise in oil prices from where they were before the buildup for the war. Uh and they're and they're going to want to believe that that's going to be oil fairly long time. So they're they're not sitting there waiting for oil to go over $70, you know, a barrel and then they're going to start drilling or whatever.
They're going to they're going to make a a reasoned careful judgment that we're going to have higher oil prices for an extended period of time, meaningfully higher. So you don't I wouldn't say there's much of that happening. Not not much will be happening now, but some of that could happen over time if you see that.
But um so the you know the net of the net of it would the net of of the oil shock will still be some downward pressure on spending and employment and and upward pressure on inflation of course. And if I could just follow up on on Kobe's [clears throat] question the how much do you worry that having looked through tariff inflation and tar inflation running above target and looking through the oil price shock would undermine the credibility of your commitment to the 2% target.
you know, we we have to do our analysis and and you know, think these things through carefully, but of course that's on everyone's mind. You know, we're well aware of of the history and uh but you don't want to overreact to that. You know, you want to make the best judgment you can based on on the facts.
We're not I don't think we're going to let it color our decision-m more than is appropriate. It's it's more the thought that it's been 5 years and we've actually had, you know, we had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic uh and and now we have an energy shock of some size and duration. We don't know what that's going to be actually.
And you know, it's one of those things where it's it's it's a repeated set of things and you you worry that that's the kind of thing that can um you know, can cause trouble for inflation expectations and and and so we worry a lot about that and we're you know we are very strongly committed to uh to doing what it takes to to keep inflation expectations anchored at 2%.
And you know I I think it's important that we uh that we do that. Very important. Nick Wall Street Nick Timmeros, Wall Street Journal. Chairpel, you've described monetary policy as modestly restrictive. If the unemployment rate is roughly stable, inflation moving sideways in the high twos with an ongoing overshoot in services and uh non-ousing services, not just goods, and the economy u doing fairly well as you as you just outlined.
What gives you confidence that inflation returns to target over the next couple of years? Okay. So I I would say the the rate is you can characterize it as in the high end of neutral or you can characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive. No one knows for sure, but it's in that range where it's somewhere around the borderline between restrictive and not.
Um remember that that a big part of the disinflation we're looking for is just the runoff of when when tariffs are put into place. Of course, what they do is they raise prices to some extent. to the extent those prices are are the tariffs are paid by consumers uh in a on a one-time basis and we're waiting for that that process.
It takes 8 9 10 11 months a year to go to go through the system and we're waiting for the tariffs which were put in place over the course of the middle part and later uh later last year. We're waiting for that to go through the system so that goods inflation will return closer to what it's always been.
I mean it used to be for many many years it was negative and then uh you know in the year before tariffs came in it was zero and it's running at like 2% now. So and and so that's kind of goods inflation is running at 2%. So that's not coming from standard Philips curve restrictive uh um you know restrictive policy.
It's coming from the one runoff of a one-time thing. We also think it's important though to keep policy either mildly restrictive or you know close to that but not too restrictive because of the weakness in the in the the downside risk in the labor market. We are balancing these two goals in a situation where the risks to the labor market are to the downside which would call for lower rates and the risks to inflation are to the upside which would call for higher rates or not cutting anyway.
So we're in a difficult situation and we feel like we're that our framework calls on us to balance the risks and we feel like where we are now which is kind of on that borderline the higher borderline of of restrictive versus uh uh not restrictive. We feel like that's the right place to be. Can I ask about corn onousing services though?
Uh because there are some people who think that it hasn't come down very much if at all over the past year. If if wage growth has come down, if the labor market has loosened, why has non-housing services inflation maybe been slower to follow? That's a good question. It's, you know, it's it's frustrating.
Labor non non-housing services have they basically moved sideways for a year. they're at the same level and we do expect that they will come down but you know it's it's a bunch of idiosyncratic things but at the same time that that is one of the things we should be seeing because to your point you know the labor market is clearly not a source of inflationary pressures and that should really matter for non-housing services but we're not seeing progress there so we do you know the what we expect for next year is continued what we want to see for this year rather is continued progress on housing services finally seeing that you know uh goods inflation come back down because the one at a time effects of tariffs are through and then also get some help from non-housing services.
That's what we'd like to see. But it's, you know, it's a good question why we didn't see much of that last year. Edward, thanks. Edward Lawrence with uh Fox Business. So in December we saw employment numbers revised down to7,000. January revised down. February posted a loss of 92,000. Is that is is the employment side a far greater risk than the inflation side because we are seeing inflation CPI is close to 2% PCE has ticked down overall.
You know it's really I wouldn't say that I wouldn't say that that's clear at all that one is more at risk than the other. So you can you can point to the unemployment rate being stable and you know in a world where both supply and demand for workers have come down very very sharply over the course of the past year due to immigration policy largely um you know a ratio is going to be a better thing to look at than job creation for example.
So and the ratio is the unemployment rate and it's been stable since September. So that that that tells you that um inflation I you know you can you can uh we're we're we're at 3.0% core inflation 2.8% uh headline. So we've been well above the 2% uh that that amount whatever it is uh 7.8 or our full percentage point above 2% for some time and that's a concern.
You know we need to get back down to 2%. and uh we need to keep focused on that even though we do now face some some new inflation from energy. So I I I'd be hardressed to say that one of them is obviously more at risk than the other. And if I may, what happens uh um if there's no [clears throat] Federal Reserve chairman confirmed on May 15th, would you stay on?
So if my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair prom until he is confirmed. Oh. Um, that is what the law calls for. Uh, that's what we've done on several occasions, including involving me, and it's what we're going to do in this situation. Oh, it's a deep Oh, HE'S GOING TO STAY ON.
On the question whether I will leave while the investigation is ongoing. I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly. pretty sure that no Jefferson I think he's going to stay on refer you to the statement that was in the Fed's brief that you all have seen for you on that
on the question of whether I will then continue to serve as a governor after my term ends and after the investigation is over. I have not made that decision yet. Uh and I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve. Figuring you probably were going to set the dominoes off there, Edward.
And I'm not going to have any more to say on those issues, by the way. [clears throat] Thank you very much. Claire Jones from the Financial Times. Um, people have drawn quite a few historical parallels with the current situation, we've seen oil price shocks in the past. Um some people have said the first Gulf War and the Fed's response to that where there was a focus on the growth risks um is the right parallel to what extent would you agree with that and to what extent still going dollar
thank you you know we it's it's really hard to say until we see the situation the actual situation um in some circumstances that might be the right uh case in fact for example if we do see the kinds of uh of disinflationary progress that we expect to see with due to tariffs that I mentioned. Um I think it's hard to say and it will depend to some extent on on the size and duration of the effects we're seeing on prices and and it will depend a lot on uh what we can see in inflation expectations.
And just one follow up if I may just on the BLS report that was mentioned briefly there. It doesn't seem from the projections or from the comments you've made today about the unemployment rate and focusing on that that your view on the labor market story to a large part being a supply side story has changed um despite the quite negative number in February.
Would that be the right take? And was there anyone else in the room who thought differently and that the February jobs report was cause for concern? So I think you have to take the take the two together. You know the um in a way the uh January report was a positive surprise and the February report was a negative surprise.
Uh if you put them together you get something in the middle and I I think you have to real as you do I'm sure realize there were there was a strike and there was weather and that's about 80% of the negative effect total focus on terroring that. So, so what do you what do you see if you take a step back overall?
There are a number of indicators that suggest a degree of stability. But the thing that I think is challenged good number of people on the committee are concerned about is just the very very low level of job creation. If you if you adjust what has been the trend job creation over the past let's say 6 months.
If you adjust that for what we think our staff thinks is the the overstatement due to overounting, effectively there's zero net job creation in the private sector. But actually that looks like that's about what the economy needs in terms of of dealing with very very low non-existent really growth in the labor force which we've never had in our in our history.
Only ones to do this sort of a zero employment growth equilibrium. Again, you're starting to dump. I mean, again, oil had the pop. It could be does have a feel of downside risk. I would say is disappointing. It's not kind of a really comfortable. Not the data, but you know, we look at that, we see it.
I mean, everybody understands the arithmetic that that's you you can say the break even is is zero. But nonetheless, it's um it's something we're watching carefully and so and and you know, are concerned about. But ultimately though you can argue that it's the consequence of deliberate deliberate policy which is really the changes to immigration
stop moving after that now following the dollar saying something we watch carefully. Uh thanks chair Powell. Um the economy's experienced a series of supply shocks in the last few years. Uh COVID tariffs two oil price shocks. Do you think that is bad luck or is something changed in the world that makes supply ch more common and does the central bank need to take Iranian attack on Leon national security
you know we surpris oil is not moving more often you got to shocks and uh you know so we've had a lot of practice thinking about supply shocks in the last four or five years for sure and it's just a very different thing and a very much more difficult thing because it does immediately raise the question of uh tension between the two parts of our mandate but you know has the world changed I mean co co is a one-time thing right um uh this energy supply shock is a one-time thing it's not it's not because of some broad tendency or anything I don't think
and and you know that the oil shock under with Ukraine was also a consequence of uh of military action so I don't know that I don't know that the uh uh the world has changed in a way that there'll be supply shocks. But you know there's people have written that that paper and that speech a number of times.
A number of people have tried to make the case that that is the case. And in fact we have seen more supply shocks in the last 5 years than we've seen in many years before that. It's a fact. Okay. Um uh you said last year that the Fed was reviewing its communication strategies including the SCP as part of its framework review.
Um whatever happened to that? And uh I have like five follow-ups to that, but I guess you know what what would you change about Fed communications if you had the time? Thanks. What happened about that was not much. And I'll tell you why. So [clears throat] you know we we we we looked carefully at many aspects of the SCP and of our communications and there [snorts] just weren't there weren't any ideas that had very broad support on the committee.
and you don't you don't want to make a change to your communications unless you have you know have the committee behind that. So we didn't really make any changes on that. I you know I I had hoped that they had some things that I wanted to do but they just they didn't attract broad support and we'd already made all the changes we made to the framework.
That was that was a critical thing. So we didn't and you know I uh I wish we had been able to do some things but you know we didn't. So maybe the next chair will will take a look. I'm sure he will. Mike [clears throat] Bloomberg Michael from Bloomberg television while the minute show in January some members of the committee wanted to include a two-sided guidance uh on policy was that discussed today and given the rise inflation expectations how much did reacted policy warning would there be
so it did come up today the policy that our the possibility rather that our next move might an increase did come up at the meeting as it did at the last meeting. Um the vast majority of participants don't see that as their base case and of course we don't take things off the table. Uh but you you correctly characterized uh you know what was in the minutes that that several participants indicated in something very much like that conversation did happen.
What was your second question though? Oh, that was just one one question there, but a followup would be uh there are a lot of goods besides oil that are trapped in the straight right now and a lot of supply chains getting snarled. Uh how much concern do you have about whether if this becomes an inflation problem beyond just oil, whether there's anything you can do about it or would do about it?
uh given the efficacies of monetary policy, you know, we you can you can worry about other commodities. You can worry about all of the ways that oil commodities, oil related commodities go into manufacturing and that kind of thing. The truth is it's completely out of our hands and we just like everybody else we have to just wait and and see what happens and it'll be it'll come down to how long uh you know the current situation lasts and then what are the effects on the on prices and then how do consumers react and that kind of thing.
really we we I wouldn't speculate in any way and there's really not a lot we can do other than kind of watch and and see Louisa afternoon chair Powell Mariela Capuro with Bloomberg News I wanted to ask you you said longerterm measures of inflation expectations reflect confidence that the Fed will get back to its 2% goal but there are some colleagues of yours who have pointed to higher dispersion in household service in business rewards as well.
So, and that they take as a signal that inflation expectations may be less sticky than in the past. I'm wondering if there was a discussion around that at this meeting across a committee uh and what were the views of what is the state of inflation expectations and the risks of for from higher oil and gas prices.
So, at this meeting, I mean, a number of people mentioned and and staff briefed on short-term expectations, having moved up quite a lot for reasons we understand well, but long-term expectations, you know, you can always find one that's troubling or some aspect of one that's troubling. But ultimately right through this whole period uh the overwhelming majority of the things we look to including markets including surveys of you know of the public and also of um of forecasters they they've all been pretty solid on longer term inflation expectations being right where they need to be consistent with 2%.
So that continues to be the case. We didn't we didn't have a a lot of conversation about that. I think everyone does agree that you know we'll be watching those extremely carefully as we see the effects of the uh of the price increases come through from the from the conflict and still on on how [clears throat] the discussion went across the committee.
Um before coming to this meeting there were some members who were like discussing the risks of uh slow a slowdown in growth and a time at a time of where inflation remains high. It really doesn't seem that most members are penciling in a slowdown in growth. But uh has there been any discussion of the risks of techlation at this point?
So people actually wrote up their their um growth forecast by by a tenth and I think that's probably to do with just growing confidence in in um productivity. Um and uh but so sorry and your second question was just um if there have been any discussions about the risk of stackflation station scenario.
Yeah. So as I mentioned there there is tension between the two goals right the up upward upward risk for inflation and the downward risk for employment. So and that puts us in a different situation. You know, when we use the term stagflation, I always have to point out that that that was a 1970s term at a time when unemployment was in double figures and inflation was really high and the misery index was super high.
Add them together, you get the misery index. And that's not the case right now. We actually have unemployment really close to longer run normal and we have inflation that's, you know, one percentage point above that. though calling that stagflation it's not you I would reserve the term stagflation for you know a much more serious set of circumstances that is not the situation we're in what we have is some tension between the goals and we're trying to manage our way through it very difficult situation but it's nothing like what they faced in in the 1970s and that's I reserve stagflation for that the word for that period maybe that's just me
Elizabeth Thanks much, Elizabeth Scholsey with ABC News. President Trump says that oil prices and overall inflation will go down very rapidly as soon as the war ends. Do you agree with that? I don't have a forecast on that. When we're thinking about the impact on American households, as you know, they've been facing these higher prices for years.
They've seen an almost $1 increase in gas. How worried are you about households, especially lower income families, being able to afford those price hikes? And should people be bracing for higher costs, including for food? Now, we just we don't know how big these effects are going to be, and I don't I don't want to characterize them in any way.
Of course, people are already seeing gas prices. Gas prices are up almost a dollar a gallon. Um, we we we hope that isn't for a long period of time, and of course, people will feel that, but I I don't want to speculate about what that might mean because honestly, that would sound like I have some idea of what's actually going to happen, and I don't think anybody really does.
We're gonna see how this works out and uh I just would leave it at that. Victoria, [clears throat] hi Victoria Guido with Politico. Um I just wanted to ask for purposes of the next meeting. Uh you know the how the Middle East war develops between now and then. How are you thinking about what might guide action at your next meeting?
I mean, if if we have oil prices, you know, valid entire time until the next meeting, is that going to change your wait and see stance? Like, what what would lead you all to move or is uh are you on hold pretty indefinitely? We'll have to wait and see. Um I mean you know um we always say we're going to learn more by the next meeting and usually we do but in this case we're going to learn a lot because we're going to learn six weeks to the day till the next meeting and um you know we're going to see whether the what happens is it's going to be very important for the way the economy looks and the way the outlook uh the way the outlook evolves with what happens in the Middle East.
That's going to be a big factor and we'll know that then. I don't know how it's going to affect our thinking. I really don't. And you know, you we did we did talk about alternative scenarios a little bit, but it's just I wouldn't bring that in here. It's it's very uncertain and I I just want to just remember that we don't know and we shouldn't assume it's going to be one thing or another.
We're going to see. So, is it is it a matter of you don't know how the situation itself is going to evolve or even if things remain as they are, the economy could still remain relatively durable in in face of them? Yeah, that's true too. No, I mean the US economy has has just, you know, made it it's been strong through a whole bunch of challenges.
I mean, if you go back go back to 2023 when we raised rates a lot in 22 and 23 and close to 100% of economists called for a recession, which didn't happen. In fact, 2023 was a really strong year. So, uh, I the US economy has has really been just just, um, doing pretty well through a lot of significant challenges over the past few years.
It's been amazing to see. And I again, I I don't I don't know what's going to happen in the next intermedating cycle, and I don't know what's going to happen in the Middle East. I wouldn't want to speculate. Hi, Chair Pal. Thanks for taking our questions. Um, what makes you so certain that tariff related price increases will be a one-time effect?
I don't think we've seen you since the Supreme Court tariff decision. Um, and it's pretty clear that none of us know what the extent of the tariff shock will be as the administration moves to replace some of the tariffs that were overturned. So, I suppose I'm curious, what would make you question this certainty that tariffs are going to be a one-time price effect?
Well, I I I would not at all use the word certain about my my views on that. I'm not I'm not certain. I'm uncertain. But just if you think about what it is, you're it's a it's a one-time increase in the price of a good, right? And what inflation is is, you know, ongoing increases in prices this year, next year, the year after.
That's what inflation is. It's not a one-time price increase. There's a very very big difference. The public doesn't really focus on that, but that's what that's the difference. And tariffs should be a, you know, in theory, unless they cause people to start expecting still more tariffs the next year and still more tariffs the next year, they should be a classic one-time thing.
People say the same thing traditionally about an energy price spike because traditionally prices go up and they come back down. And by the time monetary policy would react, you know, you would uh it would be over. So, I don't have tons of confidence on that. I mean, I think that the theory is probably right.
Um but as usual the the time it takes to get all the way through the economy is just very uncertain and we you know we found that coming out of co that the inflation did go away and largely for the reasons we thought it would but it took two years longer than we thought you know and um so I I think we have to be humble about knowing how long it will take for tariffs to go all the way through the economy.
And so what we've been doing is our staff's been doing uh it's very interesting. They you know they started off with just an estimate because there wasn't a real history and then they've built based on the history that they're seeing of tariffs coming through into prices. um they've now they can now have an arc and for all the tariffs they can say well you know so we have I think a slight slightly more confidence that we will see tariff inflation coming down not prices but you won't see further increases and we should start seeing that uh more and more in the middle parts of the year we do expect that um now you're also right though that the the level of um of tariffs came down fairly meaningfully in the wake of the uh uh the wake of the court decision, but but the administration has said they're going to they're going to move the they're going to get that rate right back up to where it was.
So, and we we you know, we we assume that they'll do that over time. So, um that's how we think about it. Thank you, Chris. Hi. Uh thank you. Uh Chris Rugver at Associated Press. I wanted you talked about the shortcomings of the SCP in this environment. I wanted to ask about or throw in an additional thing which is the fact that it's happening before transition.
Is there still some value perhaps in the public knowing what other Fed officials are thinking uh the ones who will stay on for the rest of the year and beyond? And does that even handicap your successor in any way? Well, just in terms of having a whole committee expressing its views, is that something that locks them in for the rest of the year?
No, no, no. We never The SCP is never uh people are more than happy to change their their SCP dots. They're no way bound by them. You know, it's it's it's your opinion at a moment in time which can change based on events, you know, sometimes very quickly. Um so it doesn't it never locks people in. you know, people are more than happy to be proven wrong in either direction.
And uh so I I I just think we do it. And you know, we this was I mentioned this was a time when it's very hard to do it. During the pandemic, we actually took one meeting off, I think. And but you know, we don't we don't like to do that just because it's hard to do. We should just keep doing it. But I just would say for this one though, I think it's it's more than even more than usual good to take it take the forecast with a grain of salt because subject to just very high levels of uncertainty.
[clears throat] Brian, hi Chel. Uh Brian Chung with NBC News. Uh so you mentioned at the beginning of this conversation that you're well aware of the history of inflation running above target. It seems like that might be what's underpinning the affordability problem that we're hearing a lot about uh on Main Street.
Are there any signs to you that that's impacting the psychology of the consumer, especially given that they're a big driver of overall economic activity? I you know I'm not sure what's what that's all about but what I'll tell you what I think and what we see in surveys and that is you know people there were big price increases um all around the world by the way everywhere in in countries like the United States had basically the same kind of thing was global inflation coming out of the pandemic and everywhere people are feeling like they you know real wages have been going up in the United States now for three years roughly um but people are not feeling feeling like they're not feeling good about it yet.
And it will take some years of positive real real earning gains for people to feel good again, we think. But you're right, we uh but when you talk to people, they're they they do feel squeezed. And you know, there there are areas where where uh [clears throat] prices are still going up like insurance, various different kinds of insurance are getting more more and more expensive.
And that's just catching up really from [clears throat] inflationary pressures that take a while to get to the price into the price. So we take it very seriously. We don't dismiss it at all. It's a very real thing from the standpoint of what um of what people are experiencing and and you know what it does for us is you know makes us even more committed if that's possible to getting inflation back to 2% on a sustained basis.
How does the Fed's independence play into the ability to [clears throat] address affordability? Well, independence is what allows us to do our jobs and um you know, stable prices is half of our mandate. It's one of our two mandates. Maximum employment being employment being the other. I mean every look at every uh advanced economy that looks anything like the United States anywhere in the world in a market economy in a democracy and you'll see you know pretty much uh Fed central bank independence that looks a lot like in some cases stronger than what we have but it's critical that that we have that so that we can do the things when we need to do them to preserve price stability and it just it's it's an accepted standard practice and I think has a lot of report certainly in Congress which is where where our oversight is is in Congress and you see that among Democrats and Republicans in the House and the Senate.
[clears throat] Hi Chair Pal, Richard Eskeo, CBS News. Thanks for doing this. Um, two questions. One, how high would oil prices and broader inflation have to go up for the committee to consider hiking rates? Hiking rates. And then secondly, diesel are rising faster than gas prices. [ __ ] wanted to bring it into the discussion.
Diesel might drive up food and goods prices to broader inflation. Yeah, I I'm not going to give you an example example or specific answer on the first question. You know, we we we're prepared to do what needs to be done, but I wouldn't want to hypothesize about what that what that might be. You know, in terms of diesel prices,
easiest look. So your question there is, are we concerned about it? I mean how concerned and and whether or not you know food and other goods that really rely on it to it's a more general concern than that. It's diesel prices because that's that's transportation of food and things like that. There just lots of ways that that oil and derivatives of oil get into the production and transportation of many many things.
So and those you big effects on in headline inflation but things like that leak into core as well. and the the um the effects may not be as big, but they're quite real and they're they're material. So, we we are aware of that and we're watching it, but you know, we're right at the beginning of this and we don't know how big it you just don't know how big this will be and how long it lasts.
You know, it may or may not be something that really makes a big imprint on the US economy. We're just going to have to wait and see. Thank you. You didn't want to say transitory. Wait and see. [clears throat] Thanks very much. just to sort of stare into the future for a little bit. I was looking at the longer run bits and noticed that the growth estimate had been revised up a good chunk from from 1.8 to two
and the uh the kind of long-term fed funds rate as well. It' be great just to hear is that is that AI productivity or or what's going on there exactly? Yeah, I well I think it's it's just productivity. you know, we actually started seeing meaningfully higher productivity some years ago, four four years ago, 5 years ago and and uh and that's not because of, you know, generative AI.
It's it may we we'll never we won't know for years what it's really due to, but it could be due to the kind of things that people did during the pandmic to economize and and somehow become more productive because there was a you know an incredible labor shortage. But um and I you know I think economic forecasters are very skeptical of of uh periods of high productivity because they're so rare and they're often revised away and for many to I never thought I'd see this many years of really high productivity and by the way expected to continue and we haven't really started to see the the effects of of generative AI and that should that should certainly contribute to that.
So it's quite unusual and uh and it's you know this is the higher productivity is the thing that allows incomes to rise over time and so it's a great thing. Was that your question? Yeah. No I was just curious what lay behind that and and just briefly to on on that as well to finish up you hear the argument a lot this is a sort of disinflationary story and if you believe that productivity thing that should also weigh down on inflation over time maybe then kind of pull down where where rates end up.
Do you do you kind of agree with that line of thinking or do you think that's not how you should think about whether rates? I I think you have to be cautious about that in particular if you're talking about AI about generative AI. So remember in the short term what's happening is we're building data centers everywhere and that's actually putting pressure on on um all kinds of goods and services that go into building these things.
So that's actually probably pushing inflation up at the margin. Um, in addition, uh, um, it it probably raises the neutral rate. So, in in the in the near term, you're looking at you're not looking at something that would immediately call for lower rates or that would be lowering inflation. Over time though sure it's a it can be a if it's ext it's expanding potential output which is what productivity higher productivity does then it actually can be but I I think it's an empirical question because it's really what is the demand demand growing faster or slower than the supply side and I I think we just don't know that that answer Xanti going in.
Uh we'll just have to wait and see. Thank you very much. ended when I go tea dog. That's great. That was terrible. That was terrible, bro. That was [ __ ] That was very fast and terrible, bro. Are you kidding me? No, I was muted for a little bit and then I went pee during that. I figured we were going to have one more with [ __ ] Baron Trump.
Dude, that was terrible. Uh, not what he said. You know, technically everything he said about the economy was like chill as [ __ ] Uh, you know, again, if this is what I was expecting in the sense of, uh, you know, we thought it was going to be this, you know, everybody was overly freaked out. Powell was not freaked out about anything that was going on, but that was kind of the disappointment, dude.
That was the I should have known. The last thing I expected was him to go on and be uh be talking about [ __ ] tariffs all day. Did any of you I We should have known though because that's what he did at the last like three meetings. So at the last three meetings, he kept bringing up tariffs, tariffs, tariffs, tariff, inflation, tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.
So he did that again. But as far as the PCE, as far as the rate cuts, all all of that was actually quite better than what people were worried about coming into this. And then literally the biggest drop intraday. Are we at 1% yet? You moved like half a percent since that began. But pretty much uh what he said about staying on is the promp.
Uh that was uh that was it. Yeah, I was I was shocked, dude, about the so much tariff discussion. Uh like I mean imagine you guys like you got to think about it because they even refunded the tariffs. The Supreme Court said the tariffs don't even So I'm I'm I'm a little baffled by how uh how much he stuck to the tariff thing considering I mean oil hit 120 for a second but and then you still have everything on there which is good.
I mean, if you wanted to keep everybody calm and he didn't want to make the same mistake as transitory, you know what I'm saying? That's why he said time will tell, that might be his new thing. But yeah, that was the uh that was, I think, a little bit surprising. The good surprise was that the Fed is not at least they're not worried about it.
That means at this point, I mean, take a look at the spy. Take a look at how we've moved since the war. you're going to need a way bigger, longer effect to get the to get the Fed moving in terms of a geopolitical crisis or conflict. So, I think that one was just it was fascinating in many ways. Uh, fascinating that the data was not bad.
Fascinating that Powell's main focus coming into today was all about tariffs. I think that was actually crazy. And then fascinating that he said he is staying on. So it was right around here when we started dropping a little bit more. Again, oil did make a move. There was some headlines during that around u about Qatar.
Yeah, we're meeting with Japan tomorrow. Uh Donald Trump is going to be but he said he's staying on as the chair promp. So this has only happened a couple of times. So in 2022 when Biden renominated Powell, there was like a three to three month delay, I believe. and he still stayed on as like the the chair, you know, a temporary chair.
And then you had the first ever Fed chair, Mr. Eckles, or actually well, one of the first ones. He was like the third or fourth, I think. Uh, but Mr. Eckles, he was he got he did not get nominated by the president. He stayed on as prompt for a couple of months until they got the new one. Greenspan had the same thing as uh as Jerome Powell where he got renominated and in between nominations he was promp.
And then this one's my favorite one. Are you guys ready for this? Arthur Burns. Do you understand? People have even compared Arthur Burns to Powell or they've warned Powell not to be uh they've warned Powell not to be Arthur Burns. But yeah, so Arthur Burns uh he had a he had a little bit of a of a in between gap as he was getting confirmed.
So but he was or in between his second confirmation he got it. So that's crazy, bro. That's crazy. I can't believe it. So that means unless I think Donald Trump is going to challenge it because now if depending on how long it takes to get Warsh in I mean in a weird way if they really block wars uh Powell could keep becoming the leader.
Powell could keep leading for quite some time. maybe the next three extra 3 to 6 months or longer and then again if Donald Trump really wanted to flex presidential authority, you might be able to remove Jerome Powell from from that that promp spot and then you start going to the vice chair and then any other appointee.
I think it it's the Qar stuff. So during all of this drop, you had uh was it Qatar or or the Emirates? Somebody got attacked uh one of the oil fields and then that started running up. They made a statement on it. It's buried in between all of the Powell headlines. Uh but yeah, that's what got it got it moving up.
And then that gas, I mean, even today was pretty much natural gas with that feel. Was it Qar? Yeah. So, other than that though, man, I'm I'm glad the data and I'm glad the PCE didn't shock. I'm glad the SCP wasn't hawkish. That was expected or that was better than expected. I'm glad Powell didn't bring up the rate cuts.
I think now the fact that the Fed is kind of the Fed seems behind in the sense of you could view it as behind or you could view it as positive but like the Fed might not even budge on a war in Iran after hearing that bro you could unless things get really bad for a really long time I don't think I mean imagine this if you did this for another month right you know oil uh oil even near a hundred bucks and we did this back and forth with the headline roulette on the war I feel like Powell wouldn't even react.
So, this is all kind of crazy, man. I'm actually very very surprised with how all of this just played out, bro. This is actually And then again, we're just dumping now. So, you're still going off. I do think I don't know if this is going to carry off into tomorrow. I would argue half of this is from uh the Qatar oil or the uh the gas fields in Iran.
uh that first part this morning and then the second part here in Qatar they said Iran was attacking one of the Qatarian oil fields. So here we is man all you have to do is drop the investigation and POW but I think it was already dropped. They're just doing the appeal. So yeah that would be an easier solution to it.
But yeah I didn't I think Powell man he doesn't really want to leave though. He's just as excited as ever. VIX is on the high now. So you're into the bottom. I mean get ready. We're either going to keep running down or this might be a little short-term bottom. We only got 35 minutes left, but rate cut odds didn't move that much.
And I mean, the Fed just sent the signal that we were expecting. They're not worried about the war as much. They don't see this being a longer term issue. But I definitely think uh that that that could be taken both ways. That might be good if you don't want to freak out, but then also now that means the Fed is not they're not even going to be a factor in this until a couple more months down the road.
Uh if this if this co, you know, this conflict keeps continuing. But I was Dude, I can't believe it. I really We should have known though, bro. We should have damn known. I didn't think he was going to I didn't think he was going to just talk about tariffs the whole time. That's bro, Supreme Court. We've gotten over tariffs so easily.
And you mean it? Out of all he could have brought, I didn't bring that up once in the preview. I did not think he was going to I did not think he was going to be focused on tariffs. You know what I'm saying? Like it really uh that was uh that was amazing. That was like actually like I that I feel like that was so dated in a way.
Uh but at the same time too, it it in a weird way it helps him. It's a very good excuse. Uh because now if you don't want to even say anything about the war, you could say tariffs. Even when there wasn't a war going on, you could say tariffs. Uh but yeah, I mean he acknowledged the war in the Middle East, but he just said, "Well, we'll wait and see.
Only time will tell." And you know, he explained it that way. But yeah, bro, that was that was absolutely fascinating. And then again you have that KHC news that was a dud. Fastly and net keep going up. I mean again spies going down but I I do think this is related to Qatar uh oil or to Qatar gas and then remember the first escalation we have.
Powell did have more concern with Russia Ukraine uh back then. Again it did there was more time and inflation was already going up before Russia Ukraine. So, our inflation was kind of going up now, but it was nothing compared to that scale. So, it is early. I mean, it's we're only on three weeks of the conflict, but we should have known.
Dude, remember the last three that felt like the last three or four meetings. The last three or four meeting, that's all Powell was doing. Powell found his, you know, they got the rates down and then they still kept blaming everything on tariffs. It gave him cover to [ __ ] just chill. So that sounded like the other meetings.
Again, just considering not too often in history you have uh you don't have oil go up that quickly as it has. And like we're saying here, you know, this is what I'm telling you is that end of this month, beginning of next month, that's when we're going to start repricing thing if oil is still higher for longer on the high side.
But yeah, he uh I was expecting a a I don't know what I was expecting now that I think about it. I was expecting it to be a little bit more dual dual mandate him to explain they're ready for both, you know, and kind of lean a little hawkishly, but also in a sense where he's saying we're ready for all of it.
But I was expecting him to say it'd be too early to tell. But I didn't think every inflation question, every demand destruction question, every single question, he found a way to feed tariffs into it. That was the part that was it sounded like all the other meetings, but you know, like I'm telling you, Supreme Court and how all this other stuff has played out recently, even the rise of oil in a, you know, a conflict you don't see too often, uh, it's pretty it's pretty surprising.
UAE air defense responding to missile threat and an Israeli broadcasting authority citing a source. Israel is targeting the Iranian fleet in the Caspian Sea. There was news of a oil facility uh because again the Iranians got attacked this morning. That was the escalation. That was the first time in this whole conflict that they've gone after domestic, you know, gas production and then uh there was a report about Qatar.
They were saying one of theirs uh were were getting affected. So that's what it was. The timing that I mean 10 p.m. you could still attack late at night. They're not like, "Habibi, I attack you first thing in the morning at the market open." So yeah, you know, this conflict, there's been a lot going on.
I even think we still get a lot of the info late. He did. He said tariff one time increase, but then he's still I Bro, I just I hope Bro, I don't know. That's like in the middle of a war zone. and he's like tariffs, which I I mean to be fair, I can respect it. You know, like like I was telling you, if you look at the oil curve, you look at the pricing, the dramatic people, they're like, "Oh my gosh, this is going to be the worst thing ever forever." But, you know, it's not like, you know, most of the market, most of the pricing, it's saying, you know, this eventually this shit's going to get resolved and you have a general idea of oil.
So, at least he's not panicking. That's the part I could respect is that at least Powell's not taking the panic approach. But in the other side of the coin, it's a it was a I mean oil practically doubled in the last 45 days, 30 days. And you know, considering some of the the vulnerability and considering, you know, how much that could have like I'm telling you, our estimates were already at 3%.
We were expecting a little bit higher of a of a PCE expectation, but Powell and the Fed are just in kind of La La Land. So, yeah, man. Very, very interesting. Fastly. Well, I like Fastly, but again, if you guys go look on the trading fraternity, the YouTube shorts, or even on my Instagram, I posted about Fastly a couple days ago.
So, that was all for y'all, man. Free.99. But even at the time of the video, I said it was kind of expensive there. But the Fastley's, they came down barely, but those already ripped about 300. I sold one today at 300%. And then the Nets went about 200 300% as well, too. So, I like the play. I already thought it was expensive when I told you, but I was explaining how that could potentially be the next bubble uh because of all of the Cloudbot stuff.
So, go check that video out. But again, I think I I still it was a tight pass when I made it cuz the prices were still kind of high. But you have you now have a make it free signal. Anything after that, bro, you're on your own cuz we already got in it, got up on it at least 300%, you can't complain.
And then Yeah. So, I already made it free. I still own them, but now I I have zero risk on the table. I'm just playing with profits. The judge did cancel tariffs, but yeah, Powell Powell didn't even mention that. Nobody even asked him a question about that. No one even said with all of this tariff stuff, how does does that change your view with the cancellation?
Nobody even that was that question didn't even come up. Over five Iranian naval targets have been struck by Israeli air force in Caspian Sea. Homero said, "We haven't seen you since the Supreme Court." I know. I think she was I think she was referring some of the drama, but I It was so vague. I I I'm still very I'm shocked but I'm not just because that's it just sounded like every other meeting but we just we've just had unprecedented things occur.
So you know I mean again the straight of Hormas and all these other things you know you haven't seen them in a while and then homeboy like well tariffs I'm more worried well the tariff inflation is what we're focused on. Department of Justice antirust head says the idea that enforcement has been politicized is ludicrous.
Yeah, oil it's back again. Remember we hit 9860. The real question even coming into tomorrow night or to this tonight and tomorrow above 98 or not. Above 98 has led us into 100. If it can't break 98, it comes back down. That's kind of the uh I want to say it's like a pressure valve. This was amazing, bro.
This was amazing. Well, terrorists are It's a great excuse. It was a great excuse when he didn't want to do anything. And if you didn't want to say transitory, you know, let the record show whatever happens, he's going to be like, "Well, I said time will tell." And then he said tariffs. So, he still got to acknowledge inflation.
He still got to acknowledge midterm, longer term, even though he said it should go away. But that the same way you're explaining inflation with tariffs could explain the inflation with the war drama if you really wanted to. Unless it gets repriced in at the back end and then we start talking higher for longer oil, then it starts going into there.
Supreme Court zero impact on Trump. just eliminated the global tariffs, made more work for Trump. It did, but I would have expected him to have some acknowledgement at a deeper level of that just considering all of the inflation questions, demand destruction, it got all pulled back and linked back in the tariff.
So, God bless this man. [ __ ] Powell does it again. And then Protemp. So yeah, you you're actually going to hear Powell a little bit longer. Unless they drop the investigation, Powell is going to still be the guy holding it down for a couple more months, maybe longer. I don't know. If they refuse to drop the investigation, can't get him out.
I mean, we'll see. He might be uh he might be the substitute teacher that ends up teaching the class. Bro, that's amazing. You know that? That is amazing. All right, man. You're still going down. Like I'm saying, since the oil the uh Qar fields mixed in with the pro temp comment, we've been going down and we only have 25 minutes.
Oh, Powell. four injured in Riad missile interception debris 90. Where was this? That was at 10:30. So pretty much right before your old clothes, about the same levels, dog. That was fascinating. He does like kicking the can. But again, even the questions, there was some decent questions they were trying to, and I hope you paid attention.
They were trying to ask about demand destruction. They were asking the repricing question. What happens if this conflict goes on? What happens if there's higher inflation that leads to uh to lower lower productivity? What happens if you got demand? Again, it was borderline either stagflation or demand destruction question.
But like I mean again he was like you should be more worried about tariffs. He said well tariffs it depends if the tariff inflation goes away. But that is what I'm more concerned about. So, even then, we're going to see what happens tonight. If there's any more conflict, escalation, watch oil. But like I'm telling you, uh this is uh the next couple of weeks, if oil does stay higher for longer, you know, the Fed's going to be a variable.
I I think they're they're you could call them level-headed, calm, lack of panic. So, at least, you know, you don't have to worry about the Fed for now. uh but if we do get into the longer conflict then we start worrying about demand destruction then you get worried about the Fed too. So he didn't want to answer the rate hike question which was kind of a that was good but yeah there's a couple of things we got to watch for in the future.
You think Powell's in on it, dude? I mean it, like I'm saying, tariffs is a great excuse now because he still lowered rates last year even though the tariffs were going on. You know, he made it seem like he didn't want to. But yeah, at the same time now with everything going on, at least for like two or three more months now, that's a great [ __ ] excuse, dude.
If you wanted to be like again, what's going to happen to inflation? tariffs. Well, what if oil goes up? Well, tariffs, it's better than saying transitory. Uh, you know, to a certain because again, tariffs effects are transitory. So, I don't I mean, I could see where you're coming from, but with or without it, I I would agree that Powell has a nice little he has a nice little switch he could flip that kind of could justify whatever he wants.
it wouldn't look good. That's why I said though, there was a small chance, you know, more people, like I'm saying, most of the banks coming into it just because of how much oil moved. And you saw the PPI this morning. There was going to be a slight up. There should have been a slight uptick, but even then, the Fed was uh the Fed was really calm.
I would I would even I would borderline say a underreaction from the Fed. Both the SEP as well as Jerome Powell. I would argue those were more underreactive than not. You know, you could have justified a very slight small uptick, but that wasn't even there. Uh and even then, Powell really did not, you know, he said this could happen and there could be if it lasts long.
you know, he acknowledged what everybody knows, but he didn't. It seemed like his focus, and maybe that that was the whole point of the messaging. The focus was on tariffs. The focus was on the same plan, the credibility of what they've already been doing, not getting distracted by the by the ballistic missiles flying.
So, you could argue, like I'm saying, lack of panic, calm, it it borderlines an underreaction. But yeah, that and maybe again, that's it to a certain degree now, too. you might I don't know if you're getting a tantrum per se where the market may now kind of feel like the Fed is a couple of months away because now you're not going to get Fed pressure.
So the Fed has nothing to say about what's gone on technically. If you look at what's happened the last couple of weeks, what we just listened to, I don't think the Fed has anything to say. I don't think they have anything to that means you got to either make a lot bigger moves or this got this has to get a lot better before the Fed starts getting panicky.
But you don't even have a central bank panic. Uh then again, people have already priced in a lot of what they think, you know, Trump thinks the war is over soon every day. And then now you still got this oil stuff. And half of this reaction today is from the oil and escalation we had overnight. So 18 minutes left, baby.
Another new low on the day. You keep going lower. I know. Wait a minute. Have we not heard from Trump? You usually every one of these meetings we were getting uh we were getting a Trump social. Wait a minute. We're homeboy ain't got one. Is he okay? Bro, the last truth social was six hours ago. So you guys know what that means, right?
You're definitely getting one right when the market closes. All day, bro. I You know damn well, bro. He typed out 10 of them today. Nah, bro. He typed out at least 10 of them. The last one he said, "What if we just finish him off and you think he stops?" I'm telling you, he put him in his drafts. Nah, he do.
You know they in the drag. You like, "Oh, yeah. Wait." Mhm. Maybe like 30 minutes after the bell. Maybe even like 6:00. I want to be surprised. The markets don't like uncertainty. Well, again, I mean, you have broader uncertainty you're dealing with, but the Fed isn't panicking. I think that's another part of it is that you're going to have Powell leading the next couple of months.
worst case scenario, but like they're not panicked. So, if you thought there would be a Fed put, if you thought there would be pressure, if you thought the Fed would even acknowledge what could happen here in the next couple of weeks, just know, they're very, very calm. So, that's going to be uh in a weird way, some of the Fed put got removed.
It's back to to war conflict and then wherever Trump's puts at. But at this point, the Powell put the Fed panic is non-existent. Again, at least he didn't say rate cut. But yeah, that was uh he he did take some things off the table there. Too late. Powell is back. That's what he's going to tweet. He already tweeted that this morning.
we bounce tomorrow. There might I mean as long as we the escalation doesn't rise. I think you might bounce in the morning, but it is a Thursday. But I do think give the market time to digest it. I do think at the banks are going to be like, well, the Fed clearly and they're going to bring up the inflation cuz that could have been a bomb.
You didn't get that. I'm telling you, the the SCP was surprisingly low. So that's good. But then at the same time, I mean, if you get more LNG attacks and all of that, then we're gonna we're gonna have a couple more issues because out of this whole week, that was the first time that we have had a uh that was the first big escalation in the last seven days.
That was all week, I would argue. Iran Fars LG refinery in Bahrain targeted and damaged. That's coming out now as oil is getting back to 98. You think Trump and Powell? Maybe. But I don't know. I kind of think Powell doesn't like Trump though. Like at least Elon, they were friends. I honestly think Powell despises Trump.
Like I, you know, listen, man, if Powell was into boys, we would have caught him on a veritas video by now. But, you know, he's happily married. He loves his wife. That's why you But I could totally see Powell in one of them Veritas videos. Like, man, this mother, you have no idea, man. Like, you know what I'm saying, bro?
Like if pal pal pow probably got the what's what do they call it for how am I blank not castrated what's the word vasectomy pal's already got a vasectomy you know he's he's his kids in college man he's just playing his guitar and [ __ ] but like so he's not falling for that veritas horny [ __ ] but at the same time I I there's a part of me that believes that he don't like he don't really like uh Trump I mean again some of the investig igation stuff all the way down to the building.
Even the fact that Powell is totally playing all of his legal cards to a tea to to not really give it up. I mean, I do think Powell likes the position. I don't think he's been the worst at it till recently, but and better than a lot of, you know, any of his predecessors, but still. Uh, yeah, I don't think uh I think some of it could be working together, but another part I think is just genuine they don't like each other.
All right, oil up again. Iran attack on Bahrain is still ongoing. That's coming out now. Oh, wait. Why is he so loud? My bad. No, I don't. Unfortunately, I just don't believe Powell is objective. I believe he's more objective than not, but again, this is the same guy who caved right before the election.
I can't. And then is now saying [ __ ] tariffs for a year and a half. don't matter if a bomb go off. It don't matter if revenues increase. It don't matter what the [ __ ] happens. He's like, "Well, yeah, then the tariff we can't ra the tariffs." But then again, I'm not one I don't I do not agree with Trump that you should be raising right now or cutting.
I think that's a batshit idea. Uh even then, even I'm shocked. Uh I'm shock I'm a little disappointed in uh what's his name? Steven Moran, you know, cuz I thought Moran was like a nerd and I thought he was using data to kind of justify, you know, he was definitely more proTrump, but he had a better reasoning for it and I think he understood markets a little better in economies.
But for Moran to come out today and disscent, I do think that hurt Moran's credibility a little bit because that's not uh I who the [ __ ] would want to cut rates right now? But then again, it's the same Fed being like tariffs. What do you mean? We think PCE is gonna go up by F. It's gonna stay the same at a $100 oil.
Time will tell. Time will tell. So, yeah, I do think uh [ __ ] lost a couple points with me today. But other than that, Powell Powell lost his points last year. You know, he's kind of been the same since. But other than that, yeah, that's it's a today was a surprising one. surprising even though you got some better thanex expected news.
And then again, you still have a Middle East conflict on the other side driving oil both right now all day and impacting some of the markets. I know Tim Whitman I expected better [ __ ] Tim Whitman's doppelgangers like we should cut rates. Why you that again? I think it'd be entertaining, but I don't think it's good.
I don't think that'd be a good outcome. I would have at least been like, "All right, let's let's hold off for one. I'm down a wait." Okay, maybe we could justify holding today. Maybe I would have been a little bit more concerned. But he's like, "No, we should cut about Wars' time and $100 oil." I am, but you know, we don't know what the new guy's going to do.
Like I showed that chart today of what he did last time. You know, last time unemployment was at 8%. And inflation was even dropping and he was still worried about inflation. So 10, 15 years ago, Wars was a little scared. But yeah, I don't I hope he's not the same now because then he might play the same card.
But at least you could uh he's coming from a fresher slate than Powell, more or less. Yeah, I like Powell, too. But I'd like u Powell just reminds me of a boomer. Like I don't really hate boomers, you know, and I've always told y'all you should show more respect to boomers, but you know, eventually I'm like, "Okay, you guys need to move on." that I think Powell is one of the best Fed chairs of the of the of multiple decades and he's way better than any of his predecessors.
I appreciate his work and he's he's done amazing, but you know, towards the latter end, I I do think he kind of dropped the ball. Again, I don't the rate cut, all he had to do was not cut rates by 50 basis points ahead of an election. I think he would have he would have ensured a legacy, a bipartisan legacy.
everybody could have got behind. Uh but then he did he did tilt a little bit. Uh he could talk really nice and you could try to talk your way out of it, but he he did what a lot of Fed chairs have have actually fought not to do in the past. So either way, like I'm saying, I think his other work is good, but you know, it's one of those I love how he started, but the finish was a little sloppy, you know.
But all in all, he's better than most. Well, he navigated COVID well. He navigated a lot of things very well. That's what I've always said. I just again up until 2024, end of 2024, he if you could find a way to justify the thing you look at the guy, man, I think I I'm only hard on Powell because of how smart he really is.
I you know what I'm saying? Like if he was a dumb [ __ ] I wouldn't have been as offended. Same thing with even Steven [ __ ] That's where I'm telling you. It's like if you know if you're a dumb [ __ ] I don't of course you're going to do you're going to like listen, I'm I wasn't too disappointed in [ __ ] uh what's his name?
The guy who trades the municipal bonds. Bostic, you know, he did it five times, three times. Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, okay, man. Fine. The I'm not I'm not I'm not as surprised by that. But I do have a uh I I do have a uh a higher standard than that than for Powell cuz he has made difficult decisions and he's done very well handling things.
And you see it, bro. The guy could get him. He could talk and he could hold the line and talk his way in or out of a situation better than the best of them. So, you know, you didn't have to cut ahead of an election. Uh you know what I'm saying? By double. Mhm. nutty ass comment. He's the worst Fed chair.
Transitory in the election dropped. Trans, like I'm saying, bro, Transitory, you could even give some level of of grace towards it considering it was your first inflation in 45 years. But even then, like you could put that on the record, but I'm just saying like if you compared it on a broader historical sense, what was in his control?
His biggest mistake was the f was the cutting before the election. But are you familiar with a man named Ben Berneni? And then are you familiar with a a lady named Janet Yellen? And then Greenspan is just old as [ __ ] But even then, do you not understand like the do you understand his predecessors?
So you you may not like I'm saying I think Powell didn't close out very strong, but have you are you aware of what some of these other [ __ ] Fed chairs and how terrible they were? You know, you know Janet Yellen gave everybody free money at 0% 0% everything. Zero for everything. And then they're like, "Yeah, DoddFrank.
Jan Janet Yellen was terrible." Okay, I made a fortune off of Janet, so I can't be too mad. But yeah, technically, I would argue she is the the mother of of MMT, the queen of it, who ushered in, if you are disappointed by the the the certain elite and money system. You could argue that started with Janet Yellen.
Bernanki is a [ __ ] idiot. Uh, and he was just I I don't think he even had a problem just lying to people if it cost them their home. So, by those standards, I mean, he Powell is a [ __ ] breath of fresh air. Uh, when you when you actually like go back and I mean, I mean, again, Greenspan was maybe decent, but and then even then, you don't even know the other Fed chairs.
And the last guys who were in the [ __ ] inflation, one guy was like, "Fucking don't do [ __ ] even worse than Powell." And then the next guy is like, "We're going to have to go to 20% infl or 20% interest rates." So yeah, there was a you could go back a solid like 40 years before getting a a reasonable Fed.
Uh the other guys were even [ __ ] removing the dollar gold standard and god knows what else, man. So I don't like I'm saying I don't really agree with Powell's final stretch, but I I do think he's objectively one of the better Fed chairs that that you have had. All right, man. Spy still here. Where's 10-minute rigged?
No, man. We got final five, bro. Final three. Well, Chad, I enjoyed spending my POW day with you. I I hope you enjoyed it as well, my friends. All that matters is that 98 to 100 on oil, what we get at the at the end of it. And yeah, tomorrow's a Thursday, dude. So, you should know. Uh, no watch list tonight.
I'll try to get you a video out on Instagram or the YouTube shorts, but I think we're going to matter on escalation or not. An LNG and gas now has been uh has been thrown into the situation. We are m ah we should have had more of a bounce. So, it just depends how this plays in the next couple of days.
So you have a little bit more downside, but around this time again there's going to be some oscillation but that 2025 deja vu is still intact. Hank Pollson. Yeah, I mean I'm familiar with the fed chairs but you know I I've only experienced so many in my lifetime. So that's why I'm saying out of pure experience uh you know there some weren't that bad dude uh or they were really bad and Powell's not that bad.
So you know it's it all depends on on how you want to look at it. All right, man. Well, Nvidia even into the close. I'd watch LNG UNNG coming into tomorrow and then what all that matters is these oil fields, my friends. But you are running out of time. We had one good hit in the morning. One dud uh two duds actually.
A dud on the front run and then a dud on the KHC. But I think you might hear more on that. And then our old Fastley's in Nets. That did the work today. So can't complain too much. But damn, bro. What a day. So Chattonia, I hope you enjoyed it. I hope you have a great evening, a great time, but you only have one [screaming] minute.
Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go. Uh, . Here is the update. FARS news agency, the the missile attack on the LNG refinery in Bahrain. Strikes are ongoing, but they people are reporting damages or destroying the Bahrain Saudi link bridge, raising risk of regional energy and transport networks.
So, yeah, they're saying they took out a bridge. So, if a bridge is out, I mean, you can't rebuild bridges and that's going to slow down the transport. But less than a couple of minutes left. Are we Yeah. Be on the lookout for a Trump Truth Social. But three, two, one. [bell] . OH, my goodness. We did it.
We made it. A wild day, bro. I'm telling you, bro. We were We were excited from the morning. You got to see how this all played out, bro. But war still continuing. Powell. Now, what happens tonight? Oh my goodness. Chattonia, I need a good game in the chat. Drop your GG, my friends. It don't matter if you made money or lost money.
I know you learned something, baby. and you are responsible for change. It's going to work in your favor. Oh, I hope they feel me. But God bless you, man. Thank you for your time. The members, the non-members, the stream alerts, the locked in, everybody who contributed, too. Bro, if you weren't annoying as [ __ ] oh, you have no idea.
We love you. Even if you were annoying as [ __ ] man, it added some entertainment. But either way, man, thank you for your time. Oh, Micron is out already. Micron already came out. I thought they were going to lag though. They making that AI money, bro. They don't even preparing to take control of straight of oppos operation could extend war by week.
That's why I choose my freedom a lot. I need me to rock. You won't see me a lot. Monday through Friday, you need me. Let's talk. Hey, [clears throat] man. All right, Uncle Baby. Silence. So, yeah. Third quarter outlook above consensus. Oh, I just had it. So, revenue is expected to be 19.7. They did 23.8.
Oh, [screaming] third quarter EPS, where is the expectation was 1165. They did $1870. Even non they Micron just blew it out of the [ __ ] water. So again, even the higher estimate was $12. They did $1875 to 955 on guidance. Revenue estimated to be 327 to 342. Estimate was 24.3. So yeah, they killed it.
They beat revenue by over 10% on this quarter. EPS this quarter was 1220. Estimate was 919. So yeah, bro, they just smashed it. And then they guided up for next quarter as well, I think. All good. We could get into the margins and all of that, but you remember they ran up like six, seven% just yesterday or something.
EU deeply concerned over Israeli offensive in Lebanon. Calls on Israel to cease operations. Well, well, well. Chattonia, you're back down. And then Five Below came out. If you're into the What is it? The [ __ ] dumplings. There's not even a real dumpling, dude. It's not even a It's a [ __ ] stuffed animal.
Y'all made it. I thought they were selling frozen food at Five Below. I said, "That's an interesting vertical." No. So, Chhattadonia, I guess I'll leave it at that. That was a fat guide, bro. Even plus or minus 40 cents. It was It's like 50% higher. So, again, it's going to You might have one of those where people like, "Well, it's already up.
Let's price then." And then Nvidia drop in a couple nuclear. I think you're still dumping after hours. Are you a little bit? Yeah. Well, Chad, God bless you all. God bless America. That is all that I have for you today. You got your earnings. That's the only one that really mattered. I feel like Korea is going to go crazy off of that.
Well, they were crazy up until the war [ __ ] man. So, we will see. But I hope you have a wonderful evening. Uh, no watch list tonight, but you might get a quick one. Even then, you might not even get a quick video. It depends on the schedule, my friends. But I love you all, man. Thank you for your time, and I hope your mindset adjusts to the proper one.
And the proper one is you do it man. Start small. Take on take on the burden. It'll be light in the future. But you must believe in the change brother. You are the initiator of change. You will change change my friends. So God bless you man. Thank you for your time. Have a wonderful evening. Go read the books.
Richest man in Babylon. Proverbs New Living Translation. the strangest secret in the world. And if you're really feeling it, bro, you should also go read uh The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. If you and if you want to sell a home, you email me trading [email protected]. I'm down, bro. I'm always down, man.
And I don't know, bro. We're going to be here in the morning. Thursdays are going to be interesting. But at the end of the day, my friends, I I really hope you get some rest. I hope you enjoy it. And again, this year is going to bring opportunity. So I Yeah, dude. Week by week, man. Weekby week basis.
We got a lot in store. You just got Powell. And yeah, man. The world is nuts. But I think you're ready for it. I think you're ready for it, baby. So don't forget why we're here. Why the change is going to happen? Why you going to advance in the valley, baby? Finger to the sk. Amen. Amen. Shadonia, God bless you all, bro.
I hope you had a wonderful day. Thank you again and I will see you tomorrow morning. Peace out. Spy still dumping after hours. Are you back at Fridays though? Jesus. Jesus. Praise God. Amen. Amen. It's a co baby. Hey. are. . breath. There wasn't even risk there. My thoughts come on. usic] . Made n't .
So that means you going to kill me if it's war cheap. Can't beat on the R. Want it easy or ib. But for a second, keep it real. . They want death to bring the wind to a prayer. He had to say it now. Jesus. I put Jesus on the beat so I could an say it's one is the weapon I ain't boasting. Amen. Amen. I didn't leave yet.
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