원문 보기
ray dalio has recently appeared in an interview on fox business to discuss his thoughts on where the economy is heading and some of his predictions and expectations are quite alarming now ray dalio is a very successful investor and fund manager who has significantly outperformed the s p 500 this year so his opinions on the economy are very valuable to listen to today i'll be taking a look at some of these big warnings that dalio is giving as well as the situation that he believes we could end up in further down the line so ray dalio believes that we are at the end of a particular cycle right now so ray dalio believes that the fed is in a difficult predicament where they will not be able to raise the interest rate to a high enough level to give a good real return to holders of credit or debt without causing a contraction in economic activity even worse than the small attraction that we have seen already in other words ray dalio is basically saying that there is no way out of this current economic situation without facing a longer and more severe recession than what we're already in right now so inflation is in the mid 8 range right now while the interest rate is at around 3 which is a figure that some people would think is quite good however there is a significant difference between the current inflation level and the interest rate meaning that americans are consistently losing buying power right now over time so ray dalio does say that he thinks the inflation will come down a little bit but will still remain very high while at the same time money is going to get a lot tighter to obtain now this is going to lead to a period of stagflation which means there is a persistent high inflation combined with a stagnant or declining economy which has high unemployment now this is obviously a bad economic position to be in and a country really does not want to be in this position for long and wants to minimize the amount of time that they spend in a period of stagflation so ray dalio says that the government has got too comfortable with spending money without any limitations and that normally governments have looked at how much money they actually have as part of their budget before they start spending the money but now we have spending on many more things without making sacrifices elsewhere in the budget for example we have more spending on defense today as well as lots of money being actually spent on aid for ukraine so he believes that these are extra things that have just been added on and were not actually factored in when the government budget was first determined hence we are spending more than what was first initially planned so ray dalio believes in credit cycles where over the past decade or so we have been in the part of the credit cycle where interest rates are low and getting lower meaning that debt is very cheap and easy to actually maintain so this makes items cheaper to buy on credit and has a positive impact on the general economy and also increases wealth across other participants of the economy which leads to more spending and borrowing in general so it's basically a positive cycle but once interest rates hit zero percent or close to zero percent which was essentially what we saw in 2020 that previous part of the cycle ends and we enter a phase of the cycle called deleveraging where we can't raise debt relative to income anymore and when this does happen the cycle does begin to reverse and this then leads to a cycle of declining income and also declining spending which can ultimately lead to the beginning of a depression and also debt restructuring now ray dalio also believes that we're heading towards a dynamic that is very similar to the 1930s where america was getting ready and prepared for actually fighting germany in the world war now this period of time is also referred to as the great depression and it was a worldwide economic downturn spanning from roughly 1929 until 1939 in which the stock market did crash unemployment reached a very high level of around 20 and there was generally an extreme economic downturn now this time the situation is that america is getting ready for a potential conflict with either russia or perhaps china which is looking a little bit more likely now after the current situation that's happened with taiwan so specifically on the china-taiwan conflict ray dalio thinks that taiwan is a one-of-a-kind interest that china would fight for because of its belief that there is one china and that taiwan is part of china so he also adds that the us is not likely to consider taiwan to be an important enough fight to take with china in order to defend it however it's not totally out of the question and he then goes on to say that the likelihood of a military conflict with china within the next 10 years is around 30 in his opinion which in my opinion is quite alarmingly high now even if there is no military conflict between the us and china it could lead to an economic war which could have negative consequences on both countries so 22 of american manufactured good imports come from china meaning that if china and the us were to start issuing economic sanctions where china could become cut off from western economies in a similar way to how russia is right now then this could significantly hurt the u.s economy so many of the biggest brands in america including the likes of apple and nike do manufacture a lot of their products in china or at least have a part of their supply chain linked to china so this means that there would be a massive widespread disruption amongst many supply chains from companies that are manufacturing goods and all in all if there is a military conflict or an economic conflict with china this would ultimately be a bad thing for america and it would further emphasize the the poor economic conditions that could happen in the future so aside from credit cycles the other main points that ray dalio did touch on was the potential climate change problem that america is facing and also the rest of the world is facing as well so ray dalio does think that tackling the climate change problem that the world has at the moment is an extremely costly task that is going to become more and more relevant and important to address every year he says that there is a limited amount of time and an enormous cost to solve climate change and the technologies that are needed to actually tackle this problem have not yet been developed while at the same time reducing investment in developing new fossil fuel production also has a vast cost in a lower supply of oil and therefore a rising price of oil so he does think that finding the balance between increasing investment in developing green energy technology while also retracting investment in fossil fuel production which in turn increases the price of oil and increases america's reliance on foreign oil imports is a fine balance that needs to be determined by government over the coming decades now this is going to cost a lot of money over time and this money will need to be taken away from other areas of government spending so if the funds are not taken from other areas of government spending then that means that the government will need to print more money and therefore increase the money supply which will contribute more to inflation and cause more suffering for the average consumer when it comes to the cost of living alternatively they could raise taxes and take more tax away from american citizens and corporations but obviously this has other negative knock-on effects as well so actually a large climate bill was recently passed a couple of weeks ago that will see the us take big steps towards countering the toll of climate change on a rapidly warming planet now it does include investing nearly 400 billion dollars over the next 10 years in tax credits that are aimed at steering consumers to electric vehicles and also pushing electric utilities towards renewable energy sources like wind and solar power so experts do say that this could help the us to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to about 40 percent below the 2005 levels by the end of this decade which is definitely a good thing to achieve if that can happen and it does bring the us closer to achieving their goal of cutting emissions roughly in half by the year 2030 so although many deem that this is an essential step forward in terms of tackling climate change the money needed to fund this as i mentioned before has got to come from somewhere and biden does aim to do this partly by introducing a new 15 corporate minimum tax on profits while also bolstering the irs with 80 billion dollars in new funding in the hope that they can actually recover additional tax revenue in cracking down on wealthy corporations and wealthy tax evaders the ultimate message though is that climate change is becoming a bigger and bigger problem which needs a large amount of funding to tackle and unfortunately this funding that is needed has a negative knock-on effect on the wider american economy as people have to pay for it one way or another and if we are entering a prolonged recessionary period then this extra cost for climate change that we need to deal with could exacerbate the overall damage that the recession does cause and ultimately that does sum up the main points that ray dalio was making when it comes to this interview that he did now obviously ray dalio i respect his opinions a lot um he's a very knowledgeable person so i definitely think it's interesting to cover what he has to say about where he thinks the economy could be heading in the near future with that being said though this video is purely based on my own research and my own thoughts so it's not financial advice and i'm not a financial advisor it's for purely entertainment purposes only but apart from that if you did enjoy the video and found it useful then please be sure to leave a like as that does help out a lot also be sure to drop me a comment let me know what your thoughts are on ray dalio's thoughts and opinions on where he thinks the economy is going do you agree with him or not and also be sure to subscribe as well if you want to see similar videos to this in the future apart from that guys thanks a lot for watching
Comments 0