저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 12월 영상으로, 제이미 다이먼의 2023년 경기침체 경고를 중심으로 미국 경제 악화 신호를 정리한다. 결론: 소비 둔화와 부채 증가로 2023년 경기침체 위험이 크며, 다이먼은 금리가 5%에서 정점을 찍을 것으로 본다. 소비·저축: 개인저축률이 2020년 4월 33% 이상에서 2022년 10월 기준 2.3%로 떨어졌고, 2008년 저점(2.9%)보다도 낮다. 과잉저축이 소진되며 소비 여력이 줄어들고 있다. 부채: 신용카드 잔액이 전년 대비 15% 이상 증가해 2022년 3분기 9300억 달러에 이르렀다. 가계부채 총액은 16.5조 달러로 사상 최고치이며, 3분기 증가폭 3510억 달러는 2007년 이후 최대다. 기업·고용·증시: 소비 약화로 기업 이익이 줄고 비용 절감을 위한 감원이 나타날 수 있으며, 실업률은 6~12개월 후 후행적으로 오를 전망이다. 이익 둔화로 주가에도 하락 압력이 예상된다. 금리·양적긴축: 다이먼은 연준 기준금리가 5%에서 정점을 찍고 3~6개월 유지되나, 연내 장기간 고금리가 이어질 가능성도 언급했다. 양적긴축(QT)은 자산시장에 부정적이며 2018년 QT 때 S&P500이 약 17% 하락한 사례가 제시됐다. 지정학·신흥국: 유럽 전쟁, 강달러, 고유가가 신흥국에 큰 부담이 될 것이라는 우려가 제기됐다. 마이클 배리는 수년간 지속되는 다년 침체를 경고했고, 모건스탠리는 소비 둔화와 신용카드 잔액이 팬데믹 고점을 넘었다고 지적했다. 다이먼은 암호화폐를 '펫 로크'에 비유하며 강하게 비판했고, 탈중앙 금융 자체는 실제 기술로 인정했다. 영상은 중국 경제 이슈 영상을 추가 홍보한다.
다듬은 글
Jamie dimon has issued a bleak warning about the U.S economy and believes there are a number of reasons why we're heading towards a hard recession in 2023 which could spill over into a global economic crisis being the CEO of one of the largest banks and financial institutions in the world Jamie dimon's opinion certainly holds a lot of weight and he has identified a number of key economic metrics that are getting worse by the month today I'll be diving deeper into Jamie Diamond's current thoughts on the economy as well as the economic data around it so Jamie Diamond appeared on CNBC in an interview early this week in which he made some very interesting points about the state of the economy right now Diamond states that consumer spending is likely to weaken significantly due to persistent inflation as well as higher interest rates now this is forcing consumers to unwind excess savings that they've managed to put together during 2020 and 2021 a period where people were stuck in lockdown and there was less to spend money on in general consumer spending has risen by 10 over the past year and is now 40 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels and high interest rates as well as continued High inflation are really starting to erode people's savings now Diamond believes that as savings deteriorate further and consumer spending fools this may well derail the economy and contribute to a more severe recession now according to the Bureau of economic analysis the personal savings rate has dropped from a record high of more than 33 in April of 2020 to now being just 2.3 percent as of October's data now the spike that we saw in early 2020 was obviously largely due to being in the middle of a pandemic where the U.S government was handing out stimulus checks to many people compiled with the fact that there was not much people could actually spend their money on during that time period but taking a look at where the savings rate was pre-pandemic in 2019 we can see that it was around eight to nine percent which means that today's rate of 2.3 percent is drastically lower than compared to pre-pandemic even looking back at the historic average the current savings rate is way lower than usual and it's even worse than the lowest point seen during the 2008 Global financial crisis where the personal savings rates reach lows of 2.9 percent which is still 0.6 percent higher than we are seeing today now this is pretty concerning to see that people are saving a considerably lower percentage of their income now compared to before the pandemic and it doesn't even feel like we are remotely close to a peak recession just yet and with high consumer spending we are also seeing higher household debt too which is now surging at the fastest Pace seen for over 15 years and the most concerning thing about this is that it's mainly been driven by credit card debt credit card balances have increased collectively by more than 15 compared to this time last year in the largest annual jump for over 20 years now this brings total credit card debt up to 930 billion dollars for Q3 of 2022 and according to a Fed official this stems from a combination of robust consumer demand and higher prices sticking with non-household debt for now we can also see that all auto loans are edging up by 5.6 percent compared to last year increasing from 1.44 trillion to 1.52 trillion student loans on the other hand are actually going down slightly year over year decreasing from around 1.58 trillion dollars to 1.57 trillion if we now look at the housing debt which is mostly mortgage balances we can see that it has risen from just under 11 trillion dollars last year to now being just under 12 trillion dollars representing a 9.1 rise year over year now combining both household and non-household debt we can see that total debt has jumped by 351 billion dollars for Q3 of 2022 the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007 and it brings the collective household debt in the U.S to a new record high of 16.5 trillion dollars now this increase in total debt follows a 310 Billion Dollar Jump scene in Q2 representing an annual increase of 1.27 trillion dollars all in all despite credit card debt only making up about 5.63 percent of total household debt it is still very concerning to see that it is still one of the main drivers of this surge in quarterly and year-over-year debt that we are seeing a 15 year-over-year rise in credit card debt suggests that many people are turned into credit cards in order to continue funding their lifestyle now maybe this year is because they are genuinely struggling due to the cost of living crisis that we are seeing or maybe it's because they are struggling to adapt to the New Economic climate and are stuck in the past trying to maintain their old lifestyle despite both prices and interest rates being a lot higher now compared to where they were a year or two ago ultimately consumer buying power is decreasing because of depleting savings and Rising household debt now all of which is going to negatively impact corporate profit now with consumers being in weaker Financial positions on average having less money to spend in the economy any business that is selling goods or services to Consumers is going to take a hit to their revenue and profit now there are many negative knock-on effects from core for underperformance that will have further impacts on the economy and this can include unemployment Rising as businesses are forced to cut costs by laying off staff as well as hiring less people and unemployment is usually a lagging indicator of where the economy is at so it may take six to 12 months to see this unemployment Rise by a significant amount as right now it is still very low on top of this with businesses suffering lower profits we could also see further downwards pressure on the stock market now low profits mean earnings under performance and stocks dropping to fit back in line with previous price to earnings ratios so Diamond also believes that interest rates will Peak at five percent based on comments made so far from the chair of the FED Jerome Powell as well as other Central Bank officials now he also believes that the FED will hold rates at this level for between three to six months however there is a possibility that this won't be sufficient and this may lead to rates needing to stay elevated to this level for the best part of the year now other risks to the US economy doing the central bank's quantitative tightening campaign in which there is a fine balance between making sure they tighten enough and tightening too much now we know that QT is not a positive thing for assets and the last time that the FED carried out any meaningful QT was in 2018 where we saw a drawdown of around 17 in the S P 500 we've also heard Ray dalio issue warnings about qt in the past expressing concerns over a potential liquidity hole if tightening is too quick or too severe so this definitely is something that the FED will need to monitor closely to avoid causing any further damage to the economy the current geopolitical environment continues to be a risk to all of us in more ways than one and if tensions continue then this could worsen oil food and humanitarian crises across the world Jamie Diamond does say we've not had a war in Europe like this since 1945 and back then we said never again add to that by the way a lot of Emerging Market countries that a lot of people don't focus on are going to pay a heavy price to the strong dollar higher rates and higher oil prices and so that stuff is really significant I don't think we've seen that kind of turmoil in the global world for a long time so Jamie Diamond is not the only prominent figure in the finance and investing world to give out such Stark warnings on the US economy recently and last week Michael Berry issued a rather concerning warning on Twitter where he is predicting the upcoming recession to last many years with no way of ending it early in this tweet he did say what strategy will pull us out of this real recession what forces would pull us so there are none so we're really looking at an extended multi-year recession who is predicting this there are none so here he seems to be suggesting that there are no options available for the Federal Reserve and U.S government to avoid a prolonged recession now Michael Barry has been critical of policy makers in the past particularly with how much they have fueled inflation in his opinion highlighting the excessive stimulus payments being sent out during the pandemic now back in June Barry was also quite vocal about many of the things that Jamie Diamond has been warning us of this week including how Americans are facing surge in prices and high interest rates which is leading to people saving less and borrowing more along with predicting many Americans to exhaust their savings by Christmas now these predictions have turned out to be scarily accurate when we take a look at the state of today's personal savings rate and average household debt also another giant U.S Bank in Morgan Stanley sent out a note to some of their clients on Monday warning about changing consumer habits now this mentions how the spending spree that has kept consumer demand growing quickly this year seems to be coming at the expense of savings and credit card balances with credit balances now exceeding the pre-pandemic peak now this note also states that unless the labor market remains strong next year the strong consumer spending will likely subside further Weighing on the economy which has already seen recession odds arising materially Jamie dimon also issued a damning statement on cryptocurrency where he Likens crypto tokens to pet rocks and he said that crypto is a complete Sideshow continuing his long history as a crypto skeptic now in the same interview on CNBC he did say why do we allow this stuff to take place in relation to the recent collapse of FTX and the contagion that has spread across the crypto industry as a result of this back in September Diamond did tell lawmakers that cryptocurrencies are decentralized Ponzi schemes however in his annual letter to shareholders he did write decentralized finance and blockchains are real new technologies now it's clear that diamond is quite critical of the cryptocurrency industry overall despite appreciating some of the technology that is used in it such as blockchains and smart contracts overall though it's fairly safe to assume that it's probably quite bearish on the whole crypto sector in the future despite him not explicitly saying this now if you think the economic situation is bad in the US then wait until you see some of the things that are going on right now in China if you want to learn more about this then check out my video on the screen right now which goes into full detail about some of the recent developments in China that could affect their economy in the long term I think you'll certainly enjoy it aside from that be sure to leave a like if you enjoyed the video subscribe if you want to see more videos in the future and thanks a lot for watching
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