저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 마이클 버리가 13F 기준 포트폴리오를 거의 전량 매도하고 GEO 그룹 한 종목만 남긴 점을 근거로 경기침체·증시 폭락을 예상하는 것으로 해석한다. 13F 포트폴리오 변화: 버리의 헤지펀드 Scion Asset Management가 최근 13F에서 보유 종목 대부분을 매도했다. 1분기 약 2억 달러 규모 보유가 약 300만 달러 수준으로 줄었고, 구글·메타·워너브러더스·부킹홀딩스·브리스톨마이어스 등 11개 종목을 매도했다. 애플 풋옵션 포지션도 정리했다. 잔여 종목: GEO 그룹(민영 교도소·정신건강 시설 운영, 시가총액 약 10억 달러)을 신규 보유 중이며 포지션 규모는 약 300만 달러다. 버리의 견해: 미국 사회 불안·범죄 증가를 예상하는 것으로 해석되며, 이 경우 교도소·정신건강 시설 수요가 늘어 GEO에 유리하다고 본다. 민영 교도소가 연방 교도소보다 교도관 대 수감자 비율이 낮다는 트윗도 언급됐다. 풋옵션 해석: 애플 풋옵션을 정리했지만 신규 풋옵션은 추가하지 않았다. 시장이 단기간 더 오를 가능성에 대비했을 수 있고, 13F에 잡히지 않는 공매도 포지션이나 현금 보유 가능성도 제기된다. 트윗 인용: 2022년 8월 11~15일 트윗에서 나스닥·S&P500 상승을 약세장 반등으로 규정하고, 닷컴 버블 및 과거 사례와 비교하며 추가 하락을 주장했다. 소비자 부채: 소비자 신용잔액이 기록적 속도로 증가하고 있으며, 특히 자동차 대출·학자금 대출·신용카드 부채가 문제라고 지적했다. 버리는 '겨울이 온다(winter is coming)'고 표현했다. 출연자 견해 및 주의: 진행자는 버리가 2008년 주택시장 붕괴를 예측한 점을 들어 그의 판단을 참고할 가치가 있다고 평가하지만, 본인 리서치이며 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시했다. 분석 대상 종목: 개별 종목 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없고, 시장 전반(나스닥·S&P500)에 대한 약세 견해만 언급됨.
다듬은 글
michael bury someone who is famous for predicting the housing market crash of 2008 has gone all in on economic collapse within america and he seemingly thinks that a widespread recession and a further stock market crash is coming soon today i'll be taking a look at the stocks that barry has recently sold and also bought as well as the main reasons why he believes that a big recession and a stock market crash are ahead so michael bury has sold everything now every quarter hedge funds and financial institutions from the us do have to release their 13f filings which showcases which stocks they are holding as well as which stocks they have bought and sold throughout that quarter now this is great for onlookers because it allows us to see investing activity from the world's biggest and most successful funds and investors allowing us to get an insight on where they believe the market is heading in the future so michael bury's hedge fund scion asset management released their filing last week and the portfolio activity is very interesting but also rather alarming so michael barry has sold out of nearly his entire portfolio and now owns just one single stock that he bought last quarter now this is quite an astonishing thing to see because it means that michael berry sold out of 11 different stocks including some big names like google meta warner brothers booking holdings and also bristol meyer squib so there's quite a wide range of high market cap high quality companies that he has sold out of there so he did also sell out of his apple put option position as well which is quite strange to see if he is bearish but maybe this was always intended to be the case and it was just intended to be a short term position but to put this into a bit more perspective barry did hold over 200 million dollars worth of stocks in q1 but has now cut that down to just three million dollars meaning that he has essentially sold out entirely of his previous portfolio worth 200 million so it gets even more interesting and also concerning when you actually take a closer look at the only stock remaining in michael berry's portfolio which is the geo group or the geo group so the geo group is a us-based company investing in private prisons and also mental health facilities and it's also a small cap stock that has a market cap of around one billion dollars or just under this actually but barry has never held this stock before and even though he does own it now as the only stock in the portfolio the position is only worth about three million dollars which is quite small relative to the size of michael berry's fund especially considering it was worth 200 million in the last quarter now michael barry has tweeted criticism in the past about the police force and also how hate crime is increasing across america so he clearly thinks that the u.s is heading in a negative direction in which we could see crime increase now with many people struggling due to the cost of living and speculation around the situation only getting worse where it could potentially spiral into economic collapse michael berry clearly anticipates an increase in civil unrest across the u.s now if this is the case then demand for prisons and mental health facilities is likely to rise and also benefit companies like the geo group so barry has also recently tweeted about his thoughts on private prisons versus the federal prisons and also how private prisons keep their prisoner to security staff ratio at nine to one which is a bit better than the ten to one ratio at federal prisons and he's also stated that private prisons have a higher ratio of prisoners in community-based programmes compared to public so the fact that michael berry closed out his apple put option position last quarter but didn't add any additional put option positions is also quite an interesting thing to see so maybe barry thinks that markets are so irrational nowadays that there is no guarantee that the stock market won't continue to rip higher in the coming months or so which could render his put options worthless just simply by bad timing now alternatively he may hold standard short positions within his portfolio that we are not aware of as these positions don't need to be reported in a 13f filing or maybe he is quite simply all in in cash now this would be the safest asset to hold during periods of high volatility and at least this way barry can protect investor capital from damage that poorly timed put options could bring and at the same time this allows him to pounce with lots of dry powder when stocks get to a more attractive valuation further in the future you only really have to follow barry on twitter to get an insight into his thoughts on the current state of the us economy and also the stock market and many of the things that he has spoken about over the past couple of months are probably also reasons why he has decided to sell out of almost his entire stock portfolio so michael berry often does make quite bearish tweets and generally has a very bearish view on all things to do with the economy especially in the last few months or so so i have picked out a few of his tweets that he's made in the past and that i thought were especially interesting to look at so this first one was tweeted on the 11th of august and it does say nasdaq a bull market because it is up 20 off its low who makes this stuff up after 2000 the nasdaq did that seven times as it fell 78 percent to its 2002 low so michael berry clearly thinks that this recent surge in the stock market that we are seeing off the lows that we saw earlier um is simply a bear market rally and that it will not sustain into transitioning into a bull market again on the 14th of august he then did tweet the s p 500 completed a 22 2 month rally and the nasdaq a 43 rally the s p 500 would fall another 42 percent and the nasdaq another 48 by the bottom post worldcom in late 2002.
may 21 2001 can't shake that silly pre-enron pre-911 pre-worldcom feeling so again barry is simply stating that he thinks that the recent rallies in the market are not justified and are likely in his opinion to retrace back down to below the previous lows that we saw a few months ago and again he does liken the situation to the dot-com bubble as well then on the 15th of august after the market had gone up even more he then tweeted contrary to the internet and the twitter sphere there have been bear market rallies that eclipsed 50 retracement and led to a lower low and then he's listed some dates here as well so again he's simply saying that this bear market rally that we could be experiencing um is something that is quite normal even if it does go past that 50 retracement which we have recently seen so those were a few examples of why he thinks that this recent rally in the stock market is simply a bear market rally but another interesting point that he has made as well over the past couple weeks is about the credit balances so on the 12th of august which was obviously a few days before those recent tweets he did say net consumer credit balances are rising at record rates as consumers choose violence rather than to cut back on spending in the face of inflation remember the savings got problem no more and then he's gone on to say that spending is addictive and a winter is coming and then this chart that he has attached to the tweet is also interesting to look at and it does show the trend in u.s consumer credit surging into the titan cycle and then especially from 2020 onwards you can see that this surge is even steeper compared to any previous point so on the topic of debt we can definitely see a rather sharp increase in both housing debt and also non-housing debt on this chart on the screen now so housing debt is generally considered to be a fairly good debt to have in some ways because it is usually attached to a low interest mortgage for a house now houses are appreciating assets that historically have gained value over time however non-housing debt is more problematic and usually comes in the form of a higher interest rate loan and these loans are used for more unnecessary purchases so looking at the breakdown of this debt we can see that a lot of it is being used for auto loans student loans and also credit card debt so many people do buy cars that they can't really afford and they end up with a really high auto loan for this car that they have to pay a fairly modest interest rate on as well so you could argue that financially they would have been better off buying a cheaper car that they can either afford to buy outright or they have to take out a much smaller loan on this to simply avoid paying the higher loan repayments now credit card debt is arguably the worst type of debt to have as this credit card debt does normally have extremely high interest rates on it and if we look at this on the chart it has risen slightly over the last 10 years meaning that people are still generally spending more recklessly now compared to what they did back then so it's definitely not a good thing to see consumer debt going up for both housing and also non-housing debt and going back to what michael burrow did say in his tweet he does believe a winter is coming so whatever you think that could mean that's up for interpretation so that is all for today's video on the recent events surrounding michael bury and his portfolio now michael barrett is obviously someone who is quite well known to be a very bearish person and because of that some people don't always take what he has to say seriously because he is always bearish but with that being said he obviously has made some very good calls in the past um especially uh in the 2008 global financial crisis with the housing market crash um so i do think that it is definitely some value to um to take from looking at what he is actually doing in the market as well as some of the things he's tweeting about and problems that he does see it's especially interesting to see in my opinion that michael berry is really putting his money where his mouth is and um when he said he's bearish on the stock market he really is showing it now by fully selling out of his stock market positions but with all this being said guys um this video is purely based on my own research and my own opinions i am not a financial advisor and this video is not financial advice it is purely for entertainment purposes only but if you did enjoy the video please be sure to leave a like as that does help out a lot and also be sure to comment as well what are your thoughts on the current michael berry portfolio and what he's been tweeting about i'll be really interested to listen to that also be sure to subscribe as well if you want to see more videos similar to this in the future and apart from that guys thanks a lot for watching
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