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this week was Wild for the stock market we have like news going off and all sorts of different ways even this weekend we're getting wild news we're going to talk about some of the recap about major economic events that could be on the cuff of something big I don't know maybe see yeah so this chart we'll get here into a minute in the background but this is kind of a really interesting thing that we've been talking about for a while that finally looks like it maybe it's getting close to happening so we'll get into that a little bit later um but you big week for the market was kind of all over the map particularly you had Mega cap like Tech stock earnings and those tend to really move the market we T to a separate video on meta um but uh you know some of these companies are coming in performing relatively well you know putting on you know big sexy growth numbers other companies are just like absolutely crap in the bed Intel 15% of the workers 15,000 jobs lost in that earnings report which is bananas uh but yeah it's it's been a wild week all right and it's even this weekend we're learning some crazy stuffff but spy down 2.4% even worse for the Triple q's 3.67% and then my beloved Russell 2000 which was up like 10% in a month gave it all back this week it's crazy I'm starting to grab my pants not really but I can buy more yeah so Powell spoke this week too which was like another minor little news story here uh talking about the fact that me no no rate cut this week uh but the next meetings in September they get a nice little break they're saying maybe the next one we'll finally start cutting rates maybe just maybe but the funny part to me this little quote here I I don't think of the labor market in its current state as a likely source of signicant inflationary pressures so would not like to see any material further cooling the labor market all right so this is remember the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate for keeping inflation under control but keeping unemployment to the maximum ability uh and of course we got our labor number like two days later and unemployment rate has jumped from 4.1 to 4.3% so this is exactly what we was hoping not to see yeah is is not all what he's hoping to see and remember guys uh we we did this last time he spoke it was chilling between like 3.6 and 3.9 for like like a year it was forever it was a long time this Rises very quickly when it happens yeah yeah don't got a nice chart for you on that one um yeah so essentially this is the unemployment rate going back all the way to like 1948 I think let me move your face um I think it's 1948 yeah 1948 so you can see as we start to see the cusp right before these gray lines of recession as it starts to curve upward it happens incredibly incredibly rapidly which we've kind of already seen going from 36 to 39 in a matter of like 12 months 39 to 4.3 in a matter of two months or whatever it was so as we start to increase in unemployment you have multiple factors that can happen at once which we're also going to talk about that are not good and they can kind of cause a little bit of a spike which is not ideal but if you're in TLT it is nice uh just to put another way of displaying the number of jobs created by the economy uh slowly cooling off over time you know pretty easy to draw in your mind a nice like downward progression of this this downward sloping line in terms of the number of jobs being created each month uh this one came in below estimates which was one of the things that really kind of upset the market this week I think they're looking at 178,000 jobs created to 114,000 and they downwardly revive June of course as well which has been the trend for a little while um I if this slide so this is the S Rule now full disclosure I was not super familiar with this but it involves unemployment so essentially it's the unemployment Lan 3month moving average uh moving 50 basis points above its 12-month low that just happened and you can see here I'll move my face here so going back recessions to November 1953 you you can see that the session starts right around there two months beforehand you know 3 months beforehand whatever it happens um it has been correct 10 out 11 times and I will say so this time this this point 40 is uh wrong but s did come out and say here go to the next slide that this one may be the one that's different which I feel like they would say every single time due to increased labor Supply uh due to immigration Trends so take it with a grain of salt yeah yeah certainly I mean uh I think po did mention something about immigration and being a driver of GDP uh during this current economic cycle too so we're still seeing positive GDP growth which is another number we had reported recently yeah uh and that's been part due to influx of of folks or demand for goods and services right um so this is now the prediction after all this data this is as of Friday um what the fed's going to do with their next meeting in September right so they get a nice little break here you that the the T the rate right now is at 550 basis points they're calling for 78% of people saying they're going to get 25 basis point cut and then 22% are saying we got to get a 50 basis point cut the next meeting there's literally no one calling for uh no rate cut at all at this point for the September meeting which is crazy that is pretty wild that escalated quickly yeah that unemployment thing really changed things well the other thing too is like not notice this trend now now you're you're seeing that they kind of midpoint here is now calling for like almost a percent of uh of interest rate Cuts in the next several meetings like three meetings yeah before the end of this year I think crazy Chase or Morgan Stanley was calling for 150 or 200 basis points or to 2% which is it's crazy that's too much I don't think it's happen it's just funny how far we've swung too because like the March um you know fed Reserve basically they were saying that they were going to have three rate Cuts this year and June when we got their report it was saying only one more rate only one rate cut this year and and now we're back to like n three maybe four yeah it's crazy yeah and like this is another kind of sign about how fast things are moving this is from um mortgage rates daily and the 30-year like national average mortgage rate went from 6.6% on Thursday to 6.4% on Friday yeah yeah uh a quarter point move in the 30-year national mortgage rate basically in a day it's insane imagine closing a week ago that'd be that' be so shitty well the good news is you know you have a real chance of maybe refinancing to a better rate in like in the next 12 months true good point so this is that two uh two-year 10year Bond inversion and we've talked about this for a while like we were in the longest period of of rate yield inversion in like history of the market right which is just crazy to think about and look at this move in the last like few days we're really getting close to being coming uninverted which if you go back and look at another indicator this isn't as good we've talked about this before but these shaded recessions right so like when you get that un inversion that typically is like immediately preceding a recessionary time period so it's something we may be on the cusp of un inverting here which would be another driver of you know economic Doom and Gloom scenarios um this is another point I wanted to make here when we're talking about uh inflation now Paulo said if we know continue to see you know kind of good evidence inflation is cooling inflation is a 12 month ping number right and you know we're hanging out like that at Mid 2% range right now uh all of a sudden once we lose this this August bar right here which is a half a percent uh the largest bars we'll have left is like 0.4% in the month and now we're actually even starting to see like you know this most recent data point was negative right um so it's gonna be much harder for us to have a 12mth CPI number that is you know above that that 2% number it's going to be much closer to in line with the fed target like almost overnight once we lose that 0.5% in a month which will be something that we'll see for the September data I do think the last .5% is still going to be sticky as hell unfortunately yeah and then I'm not familiar with this chart so this is we're kind of talking about things that are risk to the market right risk to Investments I obviously it's not directly Investments but recessions or bad economic Outlook or rapid increase unemployment almost always the stock market is do not do well right so this is another one that's still under the radar and not a lot of people are talking about is there's a commercial real estate collapse kind of about to happen so this this total vacancy 18.1% National is 18.1% of commercial buildings are completely vacant so almost one in five right and then you know you have biggest cities in there Boston's actually doing pretty great but everyone else not doing ideal San Francisco I'm assuming oh they're not on this well they're the worst I think they're at 25 um it's it's getting a little bit scary and then you can see the the 12 months change in percentage so not ideal yeah yeah I mean it's kind of a mixed bag here whether or not they're positive or negative um in terms of the changing percentage there but yeah there there's a handful that are going up yeah and then also so here's your office the just office industrial retail apartment look at that office space man just shooting towards 20 that is terrifying and why it's terrifying is because two 20 25 we're going to have an additional 570 billion loans scheduled to reach maturity so essentially you have about 2 trillion of commercial real estate in the next two years about to reach maturity that are going to have to refinance at a higher rate that is going to be a huge problem this usually is not a big deal for your Bank of America your Wells Fargo y yada it's it's usually Regional Banks which had come back they've come back pretty well I that could be a big problem right you start to have unemployment going up and then Banks closing yeah yeah I mean lots of Doom and Gloom scenarios could certainly be painted from that yeah speaking of the king of doom and gloom who's which by the way I hold zero weight to this to be very clear zero weight all right when you track how many times he's eventually you're going to be right every time he does one every four or five months and he's so dumb he actually put specific months if you just go back to 2020 to 2024 he's done like six or something specific months where it's like crash 80% then it just doesn't happen this new one is 86% in the S&P and 92% in a NASDAQ sometime in 2025 This was resel um um revised to may he did a specific month again 2025 I don't that that that would mean the qes are at like 50 I don't that's think that's no come on yeah like so stupid at that point yeah I I would be taking cash Advan on my credit card to buy more in yeah the average PE of the market would I mean like apple would be a PE of like six like I don't like z.
five yeah okay now this guy does have a lot of weight he just did something he just sold half of his Apple stake half this dude is sitting at 277 billion in cash now there is some discrepancy of this number but his average cash to assets has been 133% of total assets in cash since 1997 he's now chilling around 26% to 34% depending on where you look which is still at least double so I don't know he seems to know he's doing a little bit I mean you know a few thoughts there one he always t keep higher cash CU he runs insurance companies and insurance companies need to be solvent in the case of really bad things happening to the economy um two cash is paying really well right now you know I'm sure on that $277 billion he's probably earning1 15 billion do in in interest loan a year which is crazy to think about he's a bunch of T bills too yeah yeah yeah exactly uh and then three like yeah man I I'll be honest I let a good portion of my Apple shares get called away from me because you know we're looking at I love Apple don't me wrong I'd love to own it again at at the right price but we're looking at a company with single digigit uh earnings growth Revenue growth and then you're talking about uh paying in the 30p range for that which just to me those two things don't go together so I'm less uh uh I would say less inclined to hold Apple shares at this point so and also you know he talked about long-term capital gains potentially if we see a change in governmental uh Authority here as far as president the United States we might see an increase in capital gains taxes so he wanted to lock in those profits now with the lower capital gains tax yeah he also sold Bank of America MH not all of it just just a lot of it um so we have our five problems in addition Bitcoin in the last day I don't know why when Bitcoin tanks the market tanks it makes no logical sense to me I I I'm sorry but it is down like 6% in the last 24 hours so there's that I don't know the weight I would actually hold more weight to that than Harry Dent funny enough it's still officially the worst hedge on Earth yeah I no I agree it doesn't make any sense to me but for some reason sometimes they go on tandem so I figured yeah another fact all right guys yeah catch you the next one
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