저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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법정화폐 신뢰도 저하로 실물 금·은 보유 권고. 금광주는 금 현물 대비 과도하게 저평가되어 있으나 실물보다 변동성 높음. 연준 금리인하 기대 약화 속 인플레 지속 우려, 채권보다 주식 선호. 고밸류 미국 하이테크(매그니피센트 7) 주의, 홍콩 부동산주 등 저평가 지역 매력. 비트코인은 버블 성격에 유보적.
다듬은 글
all the currencies are bad because they all print money but the currency that where you can't print money the true currency is gold I'm firmly believe that every citizen that is concerned about his country and his own well-being should own some gold and silver physical now you want to make a lot of money in a bull market of gold the gold shares and silver shares go up more than the physical but not always and there a higher risk the recent surge in gold and silver prices can be attributed in part to the escalating currency risks facing Fiat currencies particularly the US dollar the rally gained momentum as the US heightened threats to seize Russian dollar assets highlighting the vulnerability of traditional currencies to geopolitical tensions and foreign policy Maneuvers renowned Economist and investor Mark Faber underscores the intrinsic value of gold as the only currency immune to manipulation through printing Faber Advocates owning physical gold and silver as a hedge against currency devaluation emphasizing their role as stable assets amidst uncertain economic conditions Gold's record-breaking performance fueled by Central Bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties has positioned it as a favored investment option recent data show a remarkable 23% increase in gold prices over the past 6 months with gold and precious metal funds dominating the performance tables for March 202 4 analysts speculate that this trend May persist into April further underlining the appeal of precious metals as safe haven assets despite the remarkable rise in gold prices shares of gold mining companies have not experienced commensurate growth this disparity can be attributed in part to a significant increase in production costs up by 35% since early 2020 driven primarily by Rising labor costs Faber acknowledges the potential for higher returns from gold stocks in a bullish Market but cautions investors about the accompanying risks while gold shares offer investment opportunities they entail higher risks than physical gold highlighting the importance of informed decision-making in navigating the volatile landscape of precious metal Investments come along as we explore the valuable insights provided by Mark Faber don't miss out on our latest updates subscribe to our Channel and activate notifications thank you for tuning in the price of gold experience a true breakout on the upside their false breaks out but this one is a true breakout because it was met by skepticism among individual investors individual investors they go to party and tell their friends oh my gold has gone up a lot when you dig how much do they have an ounce or two very few people have 20 to 30% of their Assets in Gold very few you're right and I'm sure every it's not the best investment but it is a safe investment I would tell your viewers and listeners that they're making a mistake if they don't own any physical gold at all that's all I can say I explained that gold is true money I explained that people are underweight gold I explained that in an environment where the purchasing power goes down of paper money that gold is one uh way to hedge against the loss of purchasing power the buying signal was when a British Treasurer Gordon Brown in 99 sold his gold or part of his gold at less than $300 an ounce that is the perfect Buy Signal because it shows how dumb the central Bankers are that is concerned about his country and his own well-being should own some gold and silver physical now you want to make a lot of money in a bull market of gold the gold shares and silver shares go up more than the physical but not always and there a higher risk so let's talk about gold and once again you were stressing The Importance of Being invested in physical gold as opposed to the miners and the miners are really underperforming if you look at Newmont it's still down on the year I believe somewhere around 5 to 10% and that's in spite of gold being at $2,300 or up over 10% on the year and I'm sure a large part of that has to do with the margins being squeezed due to the high cost of oil the High Cost of Labor so you make a very good point about investing in the physical yes I mean it's remarkable I mean I follow stock market since 1970 closely because that's when I started to work on Wall Street and of course I followed the gold market since the60s and 70s they saw the gold Mania and silver Mania in 1978 1980 and then the collapse in prices and then the renewal of the uptrend after 1999 but the point that I want to make is gold shares at the present time are incredibly low compared to the physical price of gold and silver that's what you just pointed out with the example of newon mining which I agree with you 100% there are other stocks that are even more depressed than newon the gold Shares are also incredibly depressed against all the other stocks in the market in other words if you take gold share sector relative to the S&P it's all gone down until just recently number two if you okay in Canada it may be a little bit better but in the US we can measure how much gold shares do portfolio managers own uh it's among 66% or 70% is less than 3% of the portfolio so people are grossly under underweight gold okay but at the same time despite this underweight position they have zero interest to increase the gold position zero tells you something about the IQ level of fund managers according to data from the CME Group Traders are currently estimating a 52% likelihood of an initial 25 basis point reduction in June reflecting expectations of potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve however recent robust job expansion figures for March have surpassed forecasts casting doubt on the timing of such rate decreases in response to the solid economic data investors are scaling back their bets on interest rate cuts for the year signaling a growing conviction that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher borrowing costs to counter inflationary pressures Market projections anticipate two quartero rate Cuts in 2024 with only a 50% likelihood of a third cut a significant departure from earlier expectations of 6 to seven Cuts amidst this evolving economic landscape Mark Faber underscores a prevailing lack of confidence in the federal reserve's ability to address inflation effectively consequently investors are shifting away from bonds towards equities however Faber warns against potential overvaluation particularly in sectors such as the high-tech industry in the US let's return to the interview the Millennials they are born into a time when inflation didn't exist or was coming down and they were born in a period of artificially low interest rates now uh things have changed but the young people the Generation Z and the Millennials they're more interested in cryptos than in Gold because they consider gold as a nonevent it doesn't move enough whereas the cryptos you know you can get rich quick this is a feature of every bubble to get rich quick schemes and I mean I'm not saying that Bitcoins can't go to 200,000 or a million dollars an ounce is like the Tulip made in Poland the sky is the limit I have some reservations about Bitcoins and cryptos whereas I think that gold is relatively safe if you keep it in a safe place I wouldn't call necessarily Canada under the government of Mr tro to be a safe place to hold gold I think that the market is reflecting The View among investors that the FED will not do anything about inflation or will do very little so that inflation will continue to accelerate in the long run and in this environment you don't want to own bonds you know you better off INE equities now there are some U question marks about this reasoning but this is what the typical fund manager thinks in this environment I think we have to be careful which sectors we buy because in the US and also in other countries the high-tech sector is now very expensive you know that they call them the Magnificent 10 or the Magnificent 7 these are stocks that are very popular but also very expensive in my view there are markets around the world that are inexpensive inexpensive as an example is Hong Kong China that is very cheap uh Hong Kong property companies and you have a lot of Hong Kong Chinese in Canada uh they've never been so cheap in terms of valuations you have a lot of property companies that sell at 70 80% discount to net asset value now I do not argue that the net asset value will decline not decline it will decline but maybe not by 80% you understand so you're buying something that is very depressed and the media that for years and years told you that uh Hong Kong was great and China was great now you cannot find a report by the media that would express any sentiment of optimism about Hong Kong or China everything is negative so for that reason I think that stocks in Hong Kong are cheap interestingly Equity investors appear largely unfazed by the changing rate expectations booed by positive economic indicators that mitigate concerns of prolonged low rates hindering growth prospects what implications do the shifts in rate expectations and investor sentiment hold for the broader Financial landscape share your thoughts in the comment section if this video resonates with you join our community by subscribing to our Channel and enabling notifications with the Bell icon thank you for being a part of our community
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