저자: RaamdeoAgrawal및VijayKedia등패널 · 외국인
요약 보기
예산안의 장기 양도소득세 인상(LTCG)과 단기·투기 과세 강화를 두고 패널들이 논쟁. 세수 증가 가능성과 소비 촉진책(농업, 신규고용 지원, 세율 조정)이 거론되었고, 시장 과열로 신규 투자 자제 및 기존 테마(인프라, 제조업) 유지 의견이 나옴. 부동산 인덱세이션 폐지 여부도 확인 필요로 언급. 시장 전반에 대해 단기 매도보다는 선별 대응과 장기 보유를 강조.
다듬은 글
All the stalwarts are with us right now, please put them all in the window once, Ramdev ji, you run a mutual fund, you run a brokerage, you are a successful investor yourself, how are you looking at today's budget, especially look at the tinkering that has been done in capital gains taxation, I think that according to the current trend in the market, there will be 25 to 30 percent more taxation in all three categories, be it long term, short term or speculative, so I think the tax mobilization from the market is quite big, I don't know that number, but it will be a very good number, it may even come to Rs 100 to lakh crore, in this, sir, which way is the signal that there will be a trend increasing again towards the highly speculative non-risky assets, ah yes, it seems like that means equity, that is, they are saying that you have earned a lot of money in equity, so you should keep giving some to us as well, that is what I mean, I don't think there is any rational because to them So, this particular asset class should be encouraged.
So, you can be speculative, I understand it, but even in the long term, you have done 10%, which means that I think your thinking is that if you have earned a lot of money, then you should invest a little part of it with some portion of guess. I don't think the logic is that we should disincentivize investing in equities, but basically I understand the logic behind why the long term capital gains tax has been increased so much.
In the short term, I understand that it is the short term speculating tax rate, so in any case, you are paying the full tax, there is no change for the long term holders. You are punishing the long term holders, so no, what do you mean? Do you want people to become speculators or do you want people to invest and keep it for the long term to build the country and build enterprises.
I feel that you should speculate more, do it quickly. That there is no benefit for you in keeping it long term, then you keep moving ahead, this interesting thing Vijay Bhai Ramdev ji, a little bit of a contrasting view is being formed between you both, at this time you are saying that there is no problem, similarly people keep complaining from 1, how will you respond to what Ramdev ji is saying, no, I do not have that much wisdom to refute what Ramdev ji is saying, but personally my view is that understand, there also you made 15 for 20 in short term, here you made 10 for 123, so you are encouraging people to make long term investment, because you have reduced the tax, yes because that too there also you made 15 for 20, here also you made 10 for 125, so look at the ratio, you will have to pay tax, there are 1 lakh 69 thousand people who show income of more than one crore in India, you cannot deny those things, it means that those who talk about oil, oil will come from sesame only, brother You will survive on what one earns.
Now, in the morning they said Annadata and Poor and Vaman Madam came in and they have mentioned those four categories, so who will pay the tax brother, tell me here ultimately, only those who can pay will pay the tax, those who can do so do not want to pay, those who cannot pay do not want to pay, obviously it is so, then how will it come into the country, ok Madhu bhai, are you ready to pay a little more tax, Anuj, I will repeat my point, if there is a gain then there is no problem in paying tax, as long as the Indian economy continues to do well, the markets remain vibrant, if we take some of our gain then it is fine, so as long as they take all the necessary steps, brother, this country should keep growing, this economy should keep growing, the companies here should keep growing, I know, in anchor terms, ultimately you can take it as Vijay said, I completely agree with him, ultimately the government will ask for tax from the one who earns, we are not happy with this, seeing that the tax is increasing, but in that There is no option, if the government has to allocate somewhere else, then taxation will have to be collected from somewhere, and this country has a history not just of today but of the last 20 years that the burden of taxation always falls more on the two people at the top, Anuj, you should look at the history of not just the present but the last 25 years, and it is possible that there may not be any change in the future, so I am requesting that our country should continue to do well, our country should continue to progress, our corporate sector should continue to do well, then I have no problem in paying 10% or 12%, as long as they make guess, I have no problem paying the taxes, okay, absolutely Atal Vajpayee ji had said this, you said almost in the same way, Madhu Bhai Ramdev Sir, let's not just talk about taxation, a lot more was announced in the budget, some major announcements came on real estate, a little bit on gold, some steps were taken, overall how did you see the budget, if you keep this taxation department aside for once Give fiscal deficit also 4.9, next year there is talk of 4.5, how are you looking at it overall, look at the budget, he has given everything to everyone, he has tried to address all the segments of the upper class through rate reduction or lower tax rate or stoppage in all ways, if you look at the rest of the budget paper, you will understand more, it is a bit of a populist view, that is, there are wide spread benefits, so it is possible that the consumption subsidy was also announced very well for the farmers, that is one of the biggest things, you see, as the speech started, first of all his focus was on farmers, in that the increase in MSP and the benefits given to everyone were 10%, the standard reaction was given, I feel from that, if the wide spread consumption subsidy is fine at the bottom of the pyramid, then do direct consumption or do something like this, but the way extra income has been given in everyone's hands, I think it will give a little boost to the consumption as well, I will discuss the theme of consumption with you also.
I want to tell you Vijay ji, the 77500 that remains extra in your hand, especially if you are in the new tax regime, how much will that be seen consuming, as Rahul was also mentioning that look, the new employees who are taking up jobs, the government will be seen giving them a minimum of 1 lakh and a maximum of 1 lakh separately, they will get a minimum of 15000, how much will this be a turner, not towards the consumption, I do not have the data for this and I do not have the knowledge about how much difference it will actually make, what Rahul ji told, I do not actually understand the mathematics, overall it seems to me that this budget is a very good budget in itself, whether you take it in terms of fiscal deficit or look at it for tourism and now I want to give you another answer to that, I told you that there are two, two, three ways for tourism, one is medical tourism due to which income increases and the other is religious tourism.
So, whatever he and others have taken, like they have taken solar, they had told earlier also that they have taken about houses, how many houses they have bought, so all this together is going to lead to consumption. Overall, I feel like this, so is it around these themes? Now I am talking about that investor who is saying that if we are earning then we will have to pay tax too.
Will new money be seen being invested around those same themes? How are you going to position yourself then in terms of new investments? If not this budget, then I would not like to make any new investments because the market is a bit overheated. Even if I have no idea, I will wait a little for it. And even otherwise, I am almost fully invested and I feel that the old themes which were going on earlier, that theme is going to continue in the future as well, like infrastructure, that is going to continue in the future as well.
I feel that the biggest problem in India could be a red flag or you can say a fear, that is unemployment. The rate of unemployment is 80-90 lakh employment is required every year and apart from that, those who are leaving their jobs, they need jobs back, so for this and in the manufacturing sector, if you boost understanding, then it will benefit from it, so I think the old themes, wherever the government was focused, will continue and what they have just said, all the policies they have made around that, the new policies that they have announced are around the same, what the government had been saying earlier that we are okay to do this, by the way, perhaps there is a news that the indexation benefit on real estate has been abolished, perhaps that is what I am trying to confirm because if this happens then this will also be a big negative, okay Ramdev sir I have to go, Ramdev sir, one last question, then what returns should we expect from you in the market from here because the last three years have been a golden period, especially for midcap investors, so the returns that are coming now, one is the corporate performance also right now This year they are also saying that there will be growth at 15%, that is one thing, secondly the participation which has been very strong till now, so I do not see much change in the liquidity flow, so the return expectations that I had, this budget will not make any difference, there is nothing like that in your market facing returns, there are some minor changes in taxation, that is your personal after making money in the market, what ever you have to pay, so I do not think that it impacted the market in any way and hence whatever was the expectation from 15%, my annual expectation is doubling in five years, I think that remains an intact situation for five years, this is a formula of Ramdev Sir, which Ramdev Sir is teaching with great passion these days, Rule of 72, actually I had gone to interview Ramdev Sir last year, then Ramdev Sir made me sit in his cabinet and He explained that rule to me, after that he gave me a book and a paper and a pen and after that Ramdev sir said that now I am giving you three-four examples and tell me by playing this role that in how many years will it double, so Ramdev sir very well, that was a very good experience for me and we will cover it well in future, thank you very much for joining us today, Ramdev sir Madhu bhai, what would be your message to the investors right now because many people are asking me questions that should I reduce my investment to zero for once, what would you say Anuj bhai, we have experienced this market for many years, whenever we take a call that the market is very high, reduce it completely to zero or sometimes it has reached a bottom, sell everything and invest, all this has not had that much impact on my long term career, so I would say that in a very careful manner because the market has given very good returns, there has been a very heavy run up in many sectors, in many individual companies, so this time I will say That there is an opportunity to pick up shares very carefully and wherever you have seen extraordinary gains and where you feel that the valuation of the companies has really gone out of reach, I think you should sell fearlessly so that if you sell and the price goes up, you will always feel that oh my god, I have sold this and the price of this has gone up.
You know, now we did not get it written from anywhere that we will buy at the bottom and sell at the top. In the long run, our returns have been very good. Wherever I see the returns, I am telling you what I am doing myself, Anuj. I am also selling shares and but I am also open that if I see any real comparison opportunity, I will not buy it because the index 24500 has grown very much.
If I see any comparison opportunity and if I have my own money for the long term, then I am open to make investment but I am a very careful investor at this point of time that is all I will say. Okay brother, thank you very much, meanwell, please bring DLF once, thank you so much. One thing I was saying was that the indexation benefit has been removed, after that you see how it is, in retail everyone wants Vijay Kedia to become what would be your message, no my message is the same Anj brother, invest wisely, don't waste time commenting on rumors, this is a business of knowledge and patience, learn from experience and do the best, the simple message is brother, there is no need to weigh too much here and the thing you said that people tell you that yes I should get out right now, sell everything and get out, in my 30 years of history there has not been a single day when I ever sold everything and got out, in fact at 99 times I have been invested at 100 99, so if you leave the pitch saying this, if you run away or leave, you cannot score a century, then your chapter of earning money is over, at least you will survive, even if the market falls, rising economy Yes brother, there is a rising stock market, there is a rising economy, chances will arise when you are standing on the pitch and playing, if you don't hit fours or sixes, then keep taking single runs, if you don't hit a single run, then just stand there, playing defense, you do n't want to lose a wicket, basically if you lose a wicket, you leave the pitch and go to the stadium, your chapter is over, your history is over, that means you have become history, you have become history, so stay here, stay here in all circumstances, this is the law of time, stay in all circumstances, this is the law of time, thank you very much Vijay Bhai, thank you so much, I have not taken a break for a long time, and see, we also have to run the channel, so let's take a small break and come back [Praise] Please note that the views expressed on Money Control are the personal views of the experts, the website or the management is not responsible for it.
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