저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도-미국 무역합의 이후 시장 반등 국면. 중소형주가 상대적으로 저평가되어 선별적 매수 기회라고 봄. 인프라 및 관광 테마 선호, 장기 관점 강조. 기업 실적 둔화는 주가 조정 요인으로 보며 완만한 실적 회복을 예상. 외국인 매도는 인도 시장이 상대적으로 싸져 곧 매수로 전환될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
Vijay Bhai, Managing Director, Kai Securities, Good morning. On the day of the budget, no one had the courage to buy in the market. Everyone was down. See today how the situation suddenly changed in two days. First of all, your reaction to this trade deal and the market's reaction. No, this is it brother.
I say I miss that one. There is also a song of mine that now I will also tell you a secret. If India is shot, even God will not save it. India Habib, India is my destiny. You are very dear. You are very strange. Whoever is sitting with you is the lucky one. So, again and again, our stock market and India teach us this, brother, that if you keep a long term view, all these things will keep coming and going and that is what the market showed us.
We are absolutely not, you are absolutely right. It would have been better if it had been sung. Your shirt looks very nice, Vijay Bhai. It is perfectly fitting the occasion today. The way it was taken out today, brother, it has been lying there for a very long time. I took it out after seeing the opportunity, I got your call early in the morning.
Did you take it out after seeing the opportunity ? No, I asked Vijay Bhai early in the morning and you listened to me early in the morning and came. So thank you very much for that. Now there is a big gap up. Now the market is consolidating a bit. What should investors do? Because we have suffered a lot of pain in the last one and a half years.
There is a terrible level pen in the portfolio. Yes, so look at that, it will work, you should understand it simply that the market, as they say, celebrates Holi during the day and Diwali at night every day, the stock market, it is like that brother, you earned money for three-four years, earned money by multiples, so there was a period of consolidation or the market got consolidated, right now I think it will still move in a range, right now the bottom which was formed three-four months ago, I think that bottom has been formed, that market index wise, break that bottom and the high which has been formed above.
I think that too should not break so soon. In the meantime, the market will consolidate and understand that when the budget came, it fell by ₹500. It has just arrived and it has increased by Rs 2500. So this range will continue. Mid caps and small caps are very cheap right now. So there should be a selective market.
Even when it fell, it was a different matter if it was more temporary. There should not be much disturbance. Even if the market rises, one should not get too excited. You should keep your mind calm and work in selective good cities. If you have a long term view then you will make big money. Well, you are saying that mid caps and small caps have become a little cheaper now.
So let's start buying again here, then yes, I feel like I have done it. I feel that yes brother, now the time has come to look for opportunities and in selective shares and why should I be selective, I have limited money. Everyone in the world has limited money. There are plenty of ideas. So, saying this, selective shares should be searched.
Should be done for the long term. I think the time has come to invest again. We don't at all, I wish everyone had such limited money Vijay Bhai, but obviously you have made so much money with so much hard work, but some particular theme is appealing to you at this time Vijay Bhai because today everything is on the rise in the market, but in such a situation, if we settle down the noise a bit and find some specific themes where fresh buying can be done at this time.
Anuj Bhai, I like the infrastructure stocks. They have already fallen by 50, 60, 70% from the top. They are available at 1/3 the price and I like them. I feel that without it India cannot develop. Infra: Many such themes have been created. If we want to become a 10 trillion dollar economy in 10-12 years, then just one or two sectors will not suffice.
But our effort is to find the cheetah, we should try to find the one who runs the fastest, it is not necessary that it will happen like this, but our effort should be to find the cheetah who runs fast or we will find that cheetah in the shape of 10 trillion dollar economy which is going to be formed in 10 years, 8 years, 12 years, whatever it is, I feel that without infrastructure, India cannot achieve such a big thing, hello yes Vijay sister, your voice is coming, can you hear me brother, yes I can hear you, I can hear you?
He is not listening to me right now. OK let's repatch and repatch. Let's do a quick re-patch, till then let's take a look at the market and see, the market is cooling off a bit now and technically, if you see, you are at day low and the market has cooled off from the higher level. Sorry Vijay Bhai, you were talking about infrastructure.
Well, what I mean is that if we understand that India is going to become a 101 trillion dollar economy in 10-12 years, then it cannot happen without infrastructure development and this does not mean that only infrastructure will be the stock. Many sectors will have to participate. But as an investor, our effort should be to find the cheetah in the jungle who can add the fastest.
So how can our money grow the fastest? This is just our effort. So I think infrastructure is also a share in it. I like the companies related to tourism. I think it should be a sunrise theme. Apart from this there will be other themes also. I have a little focus on these. We're okay you have a little focus here.
Vijay Bhai, one or two last questions. One of our market problems wasn't just a trade deal. There was a lot of problem in earnings in the last three-four quarters. Can these things cause us trouble again somewhere? So today we are celebrating because the trade deal has been done. But somewhere or the other we will have to keep an eye on the earnings of Corporate India as well.
See, earning is always the backbone. Without that, it's all empty narrative. It's just your thinking. Money is not made by thinking. Money will be made only when earnings come. But I think that due to the ongoing slowdown in earnings, the shares also reacted. That is why these shares did not sink due to 40, 50, 60, 70% earnings in the second half.
Will you take the child's life now? Is this ultimately a rising economy? Rising companies. You will come back after roaming around, right? So I think it is not like anything dramatic will happen from here. But I think slow and steady growth should happen from here onwards in earnings as well and that will be reflected in the shares.
In comparison to that, the shares had run away long ago in comparison to the earnings that had come earlier. Now, in comparison to the earnings that have slowed down or are slowing down, the slow shares have also come down a lot. So now this balance is being achieved. After that, growth should return.
This is my personal belief and I am investing in the same way. We absolutely want to share some of your last thoughts as you said that you have said the right thing that if you shoot in India and today, then let us see how many of these shots will be covered today. How many FIS will still remain stubborn.
Vijay Bhai, should we expect some from FI also that they will also come to our market? Somewhere or the other, they are a little angry with our market. No, see the anger, I always say for them that India is like they have 20 shares in their portfolio, for them India is a portfolio, for them one share is a part of the portfolio, for them India is fine, sometimes they will sell here, sometimes they will buy there, others keep moving, now if we look comparatively with others then we have become cheaper, so I feel that now their buying should definitely come and if it does not come then at least this selling should also stop and even if it does not stop then I feel that the market kit has become so cheap that retailers will dissolve them and drink them.
So I do n't think that I had sung that song earlier also that do n't sell your goods because of FFI. When they come to take shares, there will be 9, 2, 11 shares in their pockets. They waste this money, what does their father lose? Whoever follows them repeats these two lines. I am dead, Mom. I am dead, Mom.
I feel like that time is coming back. Coming back. You are sounding very positive today. Vijay Bhai, because I remember 2 years ago when the market was euphoric, you were very nervous and after that we saw a lot of pain. Now you feel that the worst playout that could happen has already happened. Now from here on, money will be made only by staying positive.
Yes, you should think the opposite, brother. When everyone is euphoric, you feel calm when you go to the sea. When you go into the pond, you start jumping. Do you go to the swimming pool? So this pattern should be maintained in life. Brother, absolutely. Vijay Bhai, from where do you get all these anecdotes?
I mean on the fly, what you said is that we jump in front of the pond and move away from the sea. I often wonder where did you get this from, it is God's gift within you. But where does all this come from? This keeps going on in my mind. I, Girdhar Gopal, no one else, has anything else in their mind except the stock market and these things.
So they keep getting created automatically and I am older than Hindi medium. A little bit in Hindi is fine, a little bit in our language is fine. That's why those songs are written. All such friends keep coming. Okay Vijay Bhai, thank you very much for joining us today on this special day and this is a wonderful shirt of yours once again. I was very focused on him. I got my money's worth. Thank you.
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