저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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결론: 중국 주식 보유 구루(이 영상에선 Li Lu·Himalaya Capital)를 HKEX 공시로 추적하는 방법을 소개하며, 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 영상 목적: 티커터미널에 안 잡히는 중국 보유 종목을 hkexnews.hk의 지분공시(2017년 7월 이후 시스템)에서 찾는 절차 시연. 발견된 Himalaya의 중국 보유: BYD(2021년 1월 기준 지분 약 7%대, 전후 주식수 동일인데 비율이 8%→7%로 줄어 공시 오류 가능성 언급), CRRC(2018년 6월 5% 아래로 낮아져 이후 공시 의무 소멸), Postal Savings Bank of China(2021년 1월 15일 약 8,354만주 추가, 평균 매수가 HKD 5.35, 영상 시점 약 HKD 5.85로 약 USD 0.75). 포트폴리오 규모 추정: BYD 약 USD 22.5억, Postal Savings Bank 약 USD 10억 미만, 운용자산 약 140억 달러 기준 BYD 약 16%, PSBC 약 7% 비중으로 추산. 주장·조건: 중국 시장은 지난 30년간 훌륭한 투자처였고 향후에도 그럴 것이라는 장기 견해이며 구체적 목표가·기간은 없음. 브리지워터의 알리바바 등 중국 보유 언급. 시청자에게 다른 구루의 중국 보유 종목 제보 요청. 리스크: 공시 누락이나 펀드명 차이로 전체 보유를 놓칠 수 있다고 본인이 인정. 출연자 전망 없음.
다듬은 글
hey what's up stock compounders brad here so today we're going to find out how to clone the gurus in china okay i spent about a half hour on a zoom call today with one of my viewers in canada and he walked me through this whole process of how to figure out what lilu right and any other guru investors that you want to look up what they own in china this is the process i'm going to lay it out for you guys today so let's get right into it first let's start at ticker terminal okay now ticker terminal is fantastic because it allows us to see you know the international holdings of gurus not just their 13f filings not just their u.s holdings but this site you know it brings in data from other sources beyond 13f filings to show us what these super investors hold now for lilu who runs himalaya capital you can see these are all from 13f filings except for the first one okay byd company that is a chinese company and we can see that by clicking through here and just reading through this this little write-up okay uh headquartered in shenzhen china okay so um what we're going to do today we're going to see if there are any other chinese holdings that lilu has that aren't showing in ticker terminal and i'll give you a hint there are so let's dig into those so the first thing we're going to do we have to go to this site hkexnews.hk okay this is like sec.gov for chinese investors at least that's that's my impression so here's how we're going to find what lilu owns in china we're going to hover over shareholding disclosures we're going to click on disclosure of interest okay now there's a few different options we have we can look at disclosure of interest since july 3rd 2017.
so this is kind of the newer system or we can look at disclosure of interest from you know april 2003 to october 2017. now i'm interested in the more recent um disclosures so we're going to click on this first one so there's a few different ways we can search here okay search by listed corporation that's if you know we want to search byd and try to see you know who are the major shareholders of byd but for this one we want to search by substantial shareholder okay we want to search for lilu or himalaya capital and see what chinese companies they have a greater than 5 percent stake in so we're going to click on this second one we're going to type in himalaya now for the date well we're going to click um let's go back to 2017.
just so we're capturing that entire kind of uh updated um you know way of of searching here so search let's see what's what are we gonna find what are we going to find so we've got essentially three results okay there's there's duplicates here as you can see um two different fund names basically for himalaya so we've got byd okay we knew that crrc corporation and postal savings bank of china all right so let's let's open these up we'll do one at a time let's look at byd so for byd we're going to just click on the file name here to to enter that what we what we can see for byd a few things date of relevant event on january 28th of this year something happened okay and what that was is lilu reduced his position from eight just over eight percent ownership of the shares outstanding in byd down to just over seven percent okay what's interesting here is that there must be some kind of mistake because total number of shares immediately before the relevant event 73 million 650 600 total shares immediately after the relevant event it's the same guys so uh i don't quite understand why the percentage reduced right from eight percent to seven percent but there was no change in the shares outstanding um i mean maybe there was some dilution event where byd issued uh more equity i i guess that that could change the percentage without you know lilu's number of shares changing at all um but you know it doesn't kind of specify here so that's that's a little confusing so there's that for what that's worth now let's go back let's take a look at crrc corporation okay we're going to click into the file so this is back from 2018 okay june 26 2018.
uh there was a reduction in so this share count did change from 220 million uh 738 000 down to 217 million 238 000 so here's the big thing here uh lilu prior to this event in june of 2018 owned a little over five percent of the shares outstanding now what this event did this selling off of you know three and a half million shares it dropped himalaya down below that five percent threshold so what happens when you drop down below five percent is you don't have to disclose any share changes anymore okay you go dark when you drop down below five percent uh because the rules in china are you know you have to disclose if you own more than five percent so we don't know if lilu still owns um c rrc corporation or not uh so that's kind of a bummer but yeah that that's that's what we've got from that one now the last one postal savings bank of china let's take a look at that so there's there's two entries here um it looks like one was december 2020 and the next one was january 15th of 2021 okay and you can see the percent of issued voting shares increased after this more recent event from just over five percent to just under six and a half percent so let's take a look at this most recent transaction so on january 15 2021 and you know that that's just last month postal savings bank of china so this is pretty cool so we can see uh it went from six percent to point four two percent okay there were eighty four thousand share eighty eighty four thousand eighty three million five hundred and forty four thousand shares that himalaya added to their portfolio now the really cool thing here you can see this is in hong kong dollars you can see the average price per share okay of these you know 83 million shares that were acquired on january 15th you can see the average price per share was five dollars and 35 cents okay that is really valuable information to us to know kind of what lilu's average buy price was in this most recent buy for postal savings bank of china um so let's take a look average buy price 535 let's see what it is now so if we go into ticker again postal savings bank does not show up i just messaged ticker terminal to to get this added so that everyone can see it in here for postal savings bank let's do a search for postal savings bank so here it is so you know dropped a little bit today 21 cents like i said it was at where was it 5 35 now it's at 585 okay so you know not too far away this is in hong kong dollars like i said and you can see the price chart over the last year so it really dipped here in september down to you know three dollars and sixteen cents uh i don't know what was gonna be interesting to know kind of what was happening down here um but you know it's it went up almost double from there uh just in a handful of months and now it's at 5.85 so what is that in u.s dollars so we're at 75 cents per share for postal savings bank of china right now so that's interesting so what i did here i i put this these two positions into a spreadsheet because i'm a spreadsheet geek um so we've got postal savings bank of china and we've got byd okay these were the shares owned you know as of the last update uh from this this site that we've been looking at and you can see the last activity um very recent now this is where he added 83 million shares postal savings back of china you can see the last price bought that was that average buy price uh this current price i just put in earlier today okay so so it's dropped you know what was it 20 cents or so since i put this in uh and then you know i wanted to calculate you know how much total money does does himalaya have in these two positions so we've got this value which is just the current price times the shares owned this is hong kong dollars okay so when i converted to us dollars you've got just under a million uh a million just under a billion dollars in postal savings bank of china so you know if we look at his other positions let's go back to lilu here himalaya if we look at his other positions you know this is potentially himalaya's second largest equity position postal savings bank of china um micron has gone up quite a bit i think since since the end of the year so micron may be higher than that now um but you know it's it's a top three position from what we can see here so that's that's a pretty high conviction in postal savings bank of china uh the other one byd um in u.s dollars you're looking at you know 2.1 billion and you can see here you know pretty close 2.25 billion according to ticker terminal so uh and looks like he he shaved off a little bit 2.3 percent now i'm assuming they got this um shaving off 2.3 percent from this site right so i'm a little puzzled why you know they weren't able to include postal savings bank of china here but we're gonna get that remedied uh soon hopefully um so those are the two chinese positions it looks like lilu owns trimming a little byd recently and adding more postal savings bank of china um to be honest guys i was a little disappointed that i i didn't find more from lilu through this site um i'd be surprised if he didn't own more than two companies in china but oh and what i wanted to show you as well so the best estimate i have of how much total capital lilu is managing is just shy of 14 billion dollars okay now this is a website called advisorinfo.sec.gov it's a site i found out about through phil town and danielle town through their podcast and you know this isn't super updated it's december 31st 2019.
so it's been over a year since this figure was updated but you know 14 billion if we assume that's correct you know byd is a pretty significant stake i mean it's you know what what is that um let's do it real quick 2.25 divided by 14. that's a 16 position in byd for himalaya um and then you know maybe a a 7 position in postal savings bank of china something like that so you know it's it's it's pretty interesting to to finally be able to look up what lilu owns now like i said i think there's probably more maybe lilu is using some some different fund names to buy in in different equities in china i don't know if you guys have any information about that please let me know in the comments uh and you know if if you guys follow any uh super investors any guru investors who are big in china you know take a look at this dig up what they're holding in china and let me know please let me know in the comments it'd be great to kind of figure out a couple more super investors that i can track in china i know that ray dalio's bridgewater is bullish on china you can see in their recent 13fs they own alibaba they own a number of chinese companies through through adrs right but i'm wondering if they own any kind of directly through the hong kong exchange or like there's one more exchange in china where you can buy securities so anyway guys it'd be fun to kind of bounce ideas off of each other with what gurus in china that you guys are following and i will post a link to this to this site where you guys can kind of dig around and see what you can turn up because you know obviously china has been a fantastic economy to invest in over the last 30 years um and you know i imagine it will continue to be in the foreseeable future so this is uh definitely a market i'm very interested in you know putting on some positions so anyway guys that's all i've got again i'll link to that this tool here in the description play with it let me know what you guys find and a big shout out to my buddy in canada for for walking me through this whole thing so with that i will leave you guys until the next video take care
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