저자: JeremyGrantham/영상진행:BradKaellner · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 Jeremy Grantham 인터뷰를 요약하며, 주식시장 거품과 하락 가능성을 경고하지만 구체적 종목·자산 가격 예측은 없음. 거품 신호: Grantham은 거품이 히말라야 봉우리처럼 뚜렷하며 2.5~3시그마 사건이라고 주장. 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP)가 2시그마를 넘었다고 설명. 하락 경로: 첫 금리 인하 이후에 대부분의 하락이 발생하며, 조정은 2024년까지 깊게 이어질 수 있다고 언급. 인플레이션 조정 시 S&P500은 약 25% 하락 상태라 "괜찮은 계약금"이라고 표현. 추가 자금: 코로나 부양금 등 미국 개인 저축 약 1조 달러가 매수 여력으로 남아 있다고 언급. 펀더멘털: 버핏은 소매 사업 매출이 22% 감소하는 등 경기가 어렵다고 언급. 3단계(펀더멘털 악화)는 아직 본격화되지 않았다는 시각. 기업 구조 비판: Grantham은 자사주 매입을 불법화해야 한다고 주장하며, 이익률 상승이 주주와 기업에는 좋지만 임금과 평등에는 나쁘다고 비판. 미국 임금은 1970년대 후반 수준을 벗어나지 못했다고 주장. 규모별 격차: 1990년 대비 대형사와 소형사 이익률 격차가 확대됨(소형 4%, 대형 18%). 빅테크: FANG+MSFT가 지난 20년 미국의 초과 성과 대부분을 설명하며, 이들 기업은 모두 VC 산업에서 나왔다고 언급. 낙관 편향: 금융권은 장기 수익을 위해 구조적으로 낙관적이며, 비관론자를 'permabear'로 낙인찍는 경향이 있다고 주장. 장기 리스크: 기후변화, 자원 부족, 인구 감소, 환경 독성이 자본주의가 잘 다루지 못하는 문제이며, 독성이 기후변화보다 더 큰 문제일 수 있다고 언급. 벤처캐피털이 이를 해결할 최선의 수단이라고 봄. 진행자 견해: 그라운드 시각을 존중하지만 전적으로 수용하지 않으며, 부정 편향을 경계함.
다듬은 글
hey what's up stock Compounders Brad here today I want to give my highlights from a recent Jeremy Grantham interview on the investors podcast what's remarkable about this episode is it went viral on YouTube if you look down 229 000 views less than two weeks ago and there's no video okay I think it's pretty rare for an audio only podcast to go viral on YouTube but I listened to all 51 minutes I think twice actually and I just want to share my highlights and to make it easier I created a Twitter thread of my highlights from this interview so uh probably the easiest thing is just to work through the Twitter thread there's only like 12 Tweets in the thread uh Grantham is talking kind of starts talking about bubbles right bubbles in the stock market he says great bubbles are always easy to spot and it's always claimed that they are not right like there's some mystery it couldn't have been foreseen what was about to happen he says they stand out like a Himalayan peak out of the plane these are two and a half Sigma to three sigma events the kind that occur every 50 to 100 years and I just want to point to what Grantham is referring to how these these things really stand out if you're looking at the data so the Buffett indicator some of you might be familiar the ratio of the total U.S stock market value divided by gross domestic product this was named after Buffett who called the measure the single best measure of where valuations stand at any given moment it looks like he's walked those comments back since then um but you know Buffett basically didn't want to endorse a single measure but we're going to take a look at it so the most common measurement of this aggregate value of the U.S stock market is the Wilshire 5000.
so let's take a look this is the Wilshire 5000 total U.S stock market value it doesn't tell us much by itself but if we compare it to GDP this is the Buffett indicator okay if you look at you know you can kind of see end of 68 69 kind of a peak here this is the trend line this this Gray Line you can see here the.com bubble and you can see here just about a year and a half ago okay so those sure seem to stand out but let's look at um the standard deviation lines overlaid on this data so we can see the dashed red line is two standard deviations so you can see it got there in the late 1960s it exceeded that two standard deviations in the.com bubble you can see didn't didn't get there didn't get even close in the housing crisis but look at where we were just over a year ago okay exceeded that two standard deviations for the Buffett indicator so that's what Grantham is talking about when he says uh these bubbles stand out like a Himalayan peak out of the plane so I just wanted to pull some data into the conversation here uh the next Point most of the decline in these Great Bear markets only happens after the first interest rate cut okay and of course we haven't seen the first interest rate cut yet we've just been seeing interest rates rising to try to beat down inflation you tell me when the first interest rate cut is and I'll tell you when the second half of the pain is going to start this correction will likely run deep into next year okay this happened just a few weeks ago so Grantham is pointing out he thinks this thing could run deep into 2024.
um we have forgotten to inflation adjust the market figures because we haven't had meaningful inflation for 20 years we've had over 10 percent inflation so when people say the Market's down 15 percent the s p is down 15 percent it's actually down 25 percent if you factor in inflation which we're just not used to doing because we haven't seen this level of inflation in like four decades so he says 25 is a pretty decent down payment on this bear Market uh the next point we knew we'd have more buy the dip this time than ever before because of the one trillion dollars lurking around in the piggy banks of U.S citizens from covid stimulus the third phase which relates to business fundamentals is the difficult one okay we haven't really gotten there yet according to Grantham how long and painful will that adjustment phase be now Warren Buffett in his talk with Becky quick I think it was last week he alluded to this third phase where the fundamentals really uh get hurt this is another Twitter threat I did tweet 30 in this thread Buffett was asked where are we now with the economy and he points out that one of their retail businesses you know Berkshire Hathaway's retail businesses is down 22 percent on sales and that's from February 2022 to February 2023 down 22 percent he says it's a tougher world out there in a great many businesses okay so this you know kind of Science of fundamental deterioration uh there it's out there the data is starting to show up so um the next thing the American corporate system has developed a style that makes it almost possible to break the law legally stockholders are leaning on corporations to take it easy on cap x capital expenditures you know opening new plants this generates an economy of mild shortage all the time so this is kind of the lead up to grant them really dropping a doozy here saying he thinks stock BuyBacks should be illegal okay so it's it's a very bold claim especially you know what what Buffett recently said in his letter to shareholders um it kind of makes takes the opposite perspective of that Buffett said something like anybody who thinks all BuyBacks are bad is an economic illiterate effectively uh profit margins have risen steadily which is a wonderful which is wonderful for corporate profits and shareholders but terrible for the economy and terrible for equality and wages of workers U.S wages are still stuck back in hourly rates adjusted for inflation of the late 1970s and Grantham points out how you know in France in other European countries wages have grown a lot faster than they have in the U.S um so you know this this corporate system how it's evolved Grantham thinks has really favored owners and shareholders over employees so I haven't really heard that argument made before so that was probably my biggest surprise from this whole Grantham interview capitalism is not designed to look out for the long-term well-being of society okay capitalism it's really designed to capture short-term profit it's it's fantastic at that um but of course it's led to some of the the problems that we're facing currently as a society in 1990 the company's under 1 billion I think that's in in market cap made eight percent return on sales those over 10 billion so kind of the the large cap universe made 12 on sales and Grant them saying you know that's kind of to be expected you know you get a a bit of a boost in in profit margins uh with economies of scale that's what you might expect uh now the data from today this is three decades later companies under a billion made four percent return on sales versus 18 for companies over 10 billion that's what you expect to see when the system is being run for the benefit of large corporations okay so another Trend uh he's kind of pointing to here the first being um wages really not keeping up with the growth of companies and now we've got this growing gap between small companies and large companies in terms of profitability uh just a moment okay we're almost done here the fangs and I would throw Microsoft in here as well thank them uh is what de madrin has has labeled that account for 80 to 90 percent of all the superiority between the U.S system in the last 20 years and the rest of the developed world okay so it's really the big tech companies in the U.S where virtually all of the outperformance has come from and every one of these companies came out of the VC industry now Grantham is very involved in the VC industry for tackling some of these problems we're gonna get to in a minute here the commercial imperative is to be bullish now here Jeremy Grantham is clapping back at this label that's been put on him as Perma Bear right people dismiss Jeremy Grantham because you know they say he's always bearish but Grantham is pointing the finger back he's saying the industry as a whole um is bullish okay Perma bullish you'll never make as much money as a financial institution being bearish the optimal flight path to long-term profit is to be resolutely bullish permeable okay one of the things that really irritates the permeables the institutions is when others are bearish they immediately cry out permabear Perma bear any good propagandist will accuse the enemy of exactly what they're doing don't expect any clear-cut bearishness from the financial World in general okay it's not how they make money and finally we're going to talk about the issues that Grantham worries about and these are some issues that he's really focused on um in in the VC world the issues that I worry about are under recognized long-term problems things that capitalism really isn't very good at tackling so we've got climate change resource shortages population Decline and toxicity foreign just level of toxins in the environment he says toxicity could be a bigger problem than climate change and he points to toxicity as a big cause of decline in fertility which is affecting this population decline so you know there's a lot of kind of overlap between these um but I was surprised he pointed out toxicity as potentially being a bigger problem than climate change of course any chemicals any pesticides you put in the environment I mean water is Nature's ultimate solvent right this is the water cycle air moves everything around so you've got this water and air these fluids of Earth that are circulating everything that we put put into the environment and that's becoming a problem that we've dumped so much toxic stuff in the environment he says I think venture capital is our best shot at digging out of all of these problems so again this is where he's heavily focused um in terms of investment uh that's it guys I just wanted to kind of share those highlights from Jeremy Grantham it it's always a little bit tough to listen to him um because it is it's hard to get kind of the the kind of negative view on reality um but I don't dismiss it because I think there's a lot of Truth in there uh and you know for truth Seekers it's easy to fall into this trap of denial right it's a psychological bias that all humans have if there's something we don't like we just kind of deny that it exists that it's true um but that's not really a a rational approach forward so I like to take all this in trying to not let it affect me too much but you know I I respect Jeremy Grantham and um I'm hoping at some point there's a time when he's not bearish right although that will mean there's blood running in the streets so be careful what you wish for right anyway guys thanks for watching that's all I got and I'll see you all in the next one take care
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