저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거는 현 시장이 도닷컴 버블보다 더 미친 상태라고 경고했으나, 영상의 핵심 메시지는 가격 방향 예측이 아니라 암호화폐 배척에 대한 비판과 GitLab 투자 아이디어 소개다. 멍거 발언 요약: 멍거는 일부 시장이 명백히 과대평가되어 있고 현재 환경이 1990년대 말 닷컴 붐보다 더 미쳤다고 말했다. 암호화폐는 존재하지 않았으면 좋겠고, 중국이 이를 금지한 결정이 옳았다고 평가했다. 진행자 비판: 진행자는 암호화폐 광풍이 젊은 층의 큰 손실로 이어질 것이라는 멍거의 우려에는 공감하면서도, 탈중앙화 기술의 가치를 무시하면 가치투자자들이 기술 변화에 뒤처질 수 있다고 주장했다. 가치투자 패러다임 변화: 가이 스피어의 견해를 인용하며, 기업 가치 평가가 부동산·재고 같은 유형자산에서 브랜드·기술·특허 같은 무형자산 중심으로 이동하고 있어 기존 방식의 재학습이 필요하다고 설명했다. 기타 멍거 발언: 중국 기업 전반에 대한 열기가 식었고 규제 리스크가 크며, 멍거는 중국과 미국의 긴장 완화에 호주가 역할할 수 있다고 봤다. 또한 재생에너지를 지지하고 코스트코를 높이 평가했으며, 버크셔의 현금 비중이 1,490억 달러로 최고치라고 언급됐다. 종목 언급: 버크셔가 보유한 BYD(방향 언급 없음), 코스트코(긍정적 평가), 아마존(경쟁 관계 언급). GitLab은 유력 투자자 옌 리아오(Ren Liao, 아리브 글로벌 운용파트너)가 제시한 종목으로, 10년 내 10배 상승 가능성이 거론됐으나 진행자는 아직 깊이 분석하지 않았다고 밝혔다. 리스크·조건: 멍거의 경고는 시장 과열과 암호화폐 투기 광풍에 집중되어 있으며, 진행자는 아직 GitLab 투자 판단을 내리지 않은 상태다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 앞으로 GitLab을 추가 분석해 영상으로 다루겠다고 예고했다.
다듬은 글
what's up stock compounders brad here so today i want to talk about charlie munger talking at the sewn conference okay the sewn conference an investing conference in australia it just happened yesterday uh and i found out about it through a guy yen liao who runs a raft global and yen you know pitched a stock that he thinks could 10x in the next decade that idea is git lab i haven't dug into git lab yet but i've been reading some of the articles that have come out from the sewn conference on you know what charlie munger talked about and i wasn't able to watch charlie talk i think it's it's behind a pay wall to be able to see charlie's presentation at this conference but i wanted to comment on some of what people are reporting on on what he said uh in this conference so berkshire's monger says now even crazier than dot-com bust okay you know a very predictable title uh for for a charlie monger talk um it seems like that's a lot of what we've been seeing from charlie over the last couple of years but he says a few other things in here that caught my attention uh charlie munger told a conference friday that markets are wildly overvalued in places and that the current environment is even crazier than the dot-com boom of the late 1990s that subsequently led to a bust i consider this era an even crazier era than the dot-com era monger 97 said at the zone conference in sydney uh munger also said he wished cryptocurrencies didn't exist and praised china for taking action to ban their use i wish they'd never been invented he said and again i admire the chinese i think they made the correct decision which was simply to ban them in my country english-speaking civilization has made the wrong decision i just can't stand participating in these insane booms one way or another so i mean charlie it's really getting to charlie this whole crypto mania that's going on and you know on the one hand it's really easy to understand why this bothers him um i think what he's seeing there's a there's so many people piling into kryptos uh because they see it going up right it's this speculative mania where the vast majority of them are gonna get burned okay at the end of the day they're going to be much worse off because they participated in this kryptomania than if it had never happened in the first place like china where they're just shutting it down so it it makes a lot of sense that he's concerned he's concerned about the young people primarily really piling so much money into this mania the thing that makes me a little bit concerned about what munger says regarding cryptocurrencies is that while i think there's value in discouraging people from engaging in um behavior that's really gonna get them into trouble that's gonna cause them hardship to to lose money uh there's at the core right and this this is true of any mania at the core there's a kernel of truth behind why people are getting so excited right and for crypto it's really this this decentralization this ability to send payments to send money to other people without this third-party intermediary that's quite greedy in a lot of cases right banks that charge these fees to to move money around from one place to another uh it's this beautiful decentralized way that people can trust one another even without knowing who they are um so it's a beautiful technology that underpins uh the this mania that we're seeing and my concern with munger speaking this way is that he's discouraging value investors primarily from spending time trying to understand this technology and and really uh what it's setting the stage for moving forward 10 or 20 years from now all of the technological innovation the shifts that we're going to see in many different industries and this is something that guy spear um has talked quite a bit about recently his talk at the kolkata value investors club a little bit with the um european value investors conference guy spear is really of the opinion right now that everything that he's really learned over the last two decades uh much of that he's having to unlearn because the way to to gauge the to judge the value of a business these days it's shifting okay it's it's so much less now on tangible assets uh like property like you know real estate like actual goods inventory and it's really shifting over to intangibles brand technology patents and you know that that poses a real problem that poses a real challenge for value investors who are used to looking at investments through one particular lens and you know i don't think charlie munger is doing value investors any favors by speaking this way about cryptocurrencies i understand why he's speaking this way um but it's concerning to me because i do think like guy spear that there's a lot of disruptive innovation coming and if we're not interested in that innovation it can quite possibly very quickly catch us by surprise in the portfolio and disrupts a lot of you know companies that we just assume have a very entrenched position so you know i wanted to share that kind of in response to charlie munger's continued disdain uh for crypto um let's see so he talks about china relations as well the veteran investor weighed in on china's global relations urging australia of course this conference took place in australia to play a role in bridging differences between the asian nation and the us i think australia with its deep involvement in china can be in a constructive position australia can encourage the us and china to be more reasonable to kind of meet in the middle um monger who was speaking after buffett's berkshire cash pile hit new heights uh 149 billion in the third quarter also said he was bullish on renewable energy uh so you know monger does have some exposure to renewable energy i think largely through byd which is a position owned both by lilu lilu's himalaya capital is where monger has some of the family assets and also in um daily journal has some exposure to byd as well i can't remember if berkshire hathaway owns byd anymore i i pretty sure they did at one point i don't know where that stands today um but that's that's cool to see munger kind of tipping his hat to the renewable energy industry i love the fact that we're rapidly reducing the burning of coal and the burning of gasoline and diesel i think that's a smart thing for the world to be doing and it would be smart even if there were no global warming i assume he's referring to pollution and and the other in the other effects of burning fossil fuels as opposed to uh generating from cleaner sources so that's that's one article uh that kind of covers you know a lot of the meat of what charlie munger brought up uh in the sewn conference let's see if there's anything different in this one which is from the sydney morning herald uh lashes crypto yep wary of booming markets um let's see backed china's ban on digital assets yeah we covered that uh calming tensions between china and u.s let's see is there anything new here that we didn't cover underlining the stretched valuations of quality listed companies and reiterated his extreme skepticism towards crypto said the investing environment was a little more extreme than what he had seen in his decades of experience i think the dot-com boom was crazier in terms of valuation than even what we have now but overall i consider this era even crazier than the dot-com era so perhaps less extremeness in the equity market certainly there are pockets of the equity markets like the meme stocks uh where there's clearly bubble like activity but it sounds like most of the craziness that monger is referring to is in the crypto nft kind of space um i'm never going to buy a cryptocurrency i wish they'd never been invented i think the chinese made the correct decision to simply ban them anything else right berks okay so berkshire has major investments including byd monger highlighted its long-term growth though he added almost every capitalist was less enthusiastic about china than they were a year ago we've seen that clearly in the stock price of alibaba 10 basically every i mean every company i've seen over in china has just taken a pounding in the last year presumably because of investor concerns around regulation not really fully grasping just how the ccp is going to roll out regulation across all these different industries and how it's going to impact the the public companies in china um so i think i think that that's kind of most of what i wanted to cover uh from what charlie munger said at the sohn conference oh he talks about costco charlie loves costco okay this has been true for many years on specific companies monger said he was a big fan of costco which he said was a highly efficient retailer that he predicted could eventually be a fierce competitor to online retail giant amazon i don't think i've ever heard him speak quite that way about costco that it could really give amazon some competition i also said he was a strong supporter of using more renewable energy right so um particularly from wind and solar looks like what charlie highlighted so those are those are some kind of highlights from what charlie munger said at the song conference i'm probably going to dig a little bit more into get lab which was yen liao's pick just kind of briefly share that kind of wet your appetite for that video that i'll be coming out with soon while all of the stock picks at the sewn hearts and mind investment conference are believed to be offering potentially market beating returns the most ambitious might be yen liao's selection git lab the managing partner of arrived global informed attendees of his high conviction in gitlab however liao's estimated upside to the devops platform company is the real elephant in the room uh opportunity for gitlab to 10x in value in the coming decade so for those of you who are versed in compounding a 10x in 10 years is a 26 annualized return okay so obviously very strong returns projected from uh yen on this one he stumbled upon the company while researching atlassian which is an australian company uh ho atlassian owns in on one specific piece of the dev ops stack git lab offers an end-to-end solution so that's just kind of wetting your appetite for the investment thesis behind gitlab and i'll be digging more into that like i said let me know if you guys were able to attend the sewn conference and if you had any highlights from it let me know in the comments i'm definitely interested what you guys picked up because there are some very premier investors that are invited to present at the song conference every year so anyway guys just wanted to share my take on what charlie munger said with that i will leave you all till the next video take care
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