저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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Pershing Square Holdings의 2020년 70% 수익률을 분석한 영상으로, 수익의 대부분은 2020년 3월 회사채 CDS 숏 포지션(약 36.6%)에서 나왔고 이후 그 이익을 스타벅스·로우스 등 우량주에 재투자한 것이 핵심이라고 설명. 수익 구조: CDS 숏에서 월 약 2,700만 달러를 내다가 한 달 만에 약 26억 달러 이익으로 전환. 두 번째 기여는 SPAC(Pershing Square Tontine Holdings)이며, 기타 기여는 Lowe's·Chipotle 각 약 10%, 스타벅스·Restaurant Brands 등. 부진 종목: 버크셔 해서웨이가 가장 부진했고 2020년 5월 전량 매도. 2020년 자사주 매입 2.86억 달러(발행주식의 6.6%), 배당 0.81억 달러. 성과 비교: 2020년 PSH 70% vs S&P500 18.4%. 하락장에서 PSH는 -1.8%, S&P500은 -3.8%로 방어력 우위. 상승월에는 PSH 2.9% vs S&P 3.0%로 소폭 열위. 향후 전망: 패니메이·프레디맥 베팅에 대해 대법원 판결을 주목해야 한다고 언급, 밸류 인베스터스 클럽에 관련 리포트가 있다고 소개. 리스크·조건: 해당 SPAC 타깃 기업 발표 여부가 장기 수익을 좌우. 과거 실적 중심 분석이며 대상 자산 중 구체적 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
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hey what's up stock compounders brad here so bill ackman's pershing square holdings generated 70 return last year 2020. that is insane okay guys now pershing square holdings has assets under management you know within the last week of around 12 billion dollars okay so a 70 percent return to get to 12 billion dollars that that that is just incredible that kind of return managing so much capital uh this is something i first saw following acquires multiple on twitter so check that out if you're not following tobias carlisle there but let's just kind of go through what contributed to this 70 return last year for bill ackman um so let's see we've got an overview of performance basically giving the nav performance total shareholder return you know it's it's a pretty chart there so biggest contributions all right this is really what we're after here came from index cds at 36.6 credit default swaps so this is you know the thing that bill ackman got a lot of attention for a lot of heat as well back in march of 2020 uh shorting corporate debt all right uh he was i believe he was paying he was on the hook to pay 27 million dollars per month for these cds's now i believe in the first month that he put this position on it paid off right so he went from paying 27 million dollars to making 2.6 billion dollars nearly a hundred x in less than a month so it's just an incredible play from bill ackerman last year in march so that made up the majority of this 70 gain last year for pershing uh square second largest contributor is the spak right pershing square tantine holdings the largest spack of all time i think it was like five billion dollars right when it when it ipo'd um you know it started at twenty dollars per share i think now it's around twenty nine dollars per share uh but i'm pretty sure it's been as high as like 35 dollars per share very interesting a lot of you know a lot of excitement around this spac uh and of course you know the these gains you know in the long run are really all dependent on who this target company is right who what what company pershing square taunting holdings is able to bring public so we're eagerly awaiting the result of that you've got lowe's chipotle each around 10 percent of the performance starbucks okay notice here we've got starbucks and we have restaurant brands international so for those of you who follow mornish pabrai which a lot of you do i know i get a lot of people who follow monish babri on my channel out of the five spawners in the free lunch portfolio uh pershing square owns two right starbucks and restaurant brands are both in that kind of bucket of five spawners for the free lunch portfolio uh so that's that's interesting to see um biggest detractor okay so not everything went up in the portfolio to get to that 70 percent there were a few that lagged berkshire hathaway was the biggest laggard of all of the positions owned by pershing square so that was interesting um of course you know we we've we know berkshire is somewhat aggressively buying back their own stock um so you know they're they're pretty excited about the low share price at least you know in the last six months or so but pershing square did sell out of berkshire hathaway last year so that was that was also somewhat interesting to see um so that's where the detractors were you know we can look at pershing square over the last 16 years to see where this seventy percent kind of falls uh in the in the grand scheme of things uh it's the highest since inception okay um so you can see here 70.2 percent in 2020 2019 was also outstanding at 58 uh but you know pershing square it's it's had some big years 42 40 so you know no stranger to great returns so let's we're going to take a quick peek at this annual investor update uh because there's some interesting stuff in here we can go a little bit deeper than that overview so let's see we got that same chart 2020 performance new bond issuances i'm not super interested in that total debt to total assets ratio um that's not quite what i'm interested in so we've got this quarterly dividend okay 81 million of capital returned was through this quarterly dividend which is about 1.1 percent yield we've got share buybacks okay 286 million of share buybacks done in 2020 retired retired 6.6 of the shares outstanding um let's see it uh so 20 20 share buybacks compared to cumulative total shares bought back since inception okay strong year in 2020 pershing square saw you know really thought that the stock was undervalued so bought back fairly aggressively but since inception 21 of the shares have been bought back so you can see the discount to nav the shares were bought back at 32 pretty impressive uh this is big news this was big news pretty recently on december 21st the pershing square holdings became kind of entered the ftse 100 index all right that's the 100 largest companies on the london stock exchange which is where pershing square holdings is traded so you know that that obviously uh is going to put some some demand on the stock right for all of these these institutional investors who own these indexes uh and the indexes themselves are kind of forced to buy pershing square holdings because of this um let's see what else we want to look at so as compared to the s p 500 right in 2020 70 versus 18.4 percent now we all know the s p 500 had a pretty pretty solid year in 2020 despite what happened in march with you know the 30 or so drawdown um it was a really good year for the s p 500 but purchasing square i mean just just knocked it out of the park same chart there we we already looked at um here's the the same one also that we looked at the contributors for 2020 detractors now this was interesting pershing square strategy has proven to be defensive in down markets okay so if you're looking versus when the s p 500 is up on a monthly basis uh the pershing square holdings lags a tiny bit right 2.9 percent versus three percent for the s p 500.
now when the s p 500 is down in months that it's down uh this is a pretty dramatic outperformance okay pershing square is only down 1.8 percent whereas the s p is down 3.8 so you know that that's you know as a value investor you know that that tends to be how these great value investors outperform indexes over time by not losing as much ground in down markets versus outperforming in up markets definitely an exception this year obviously we had an up market but you could argue a lot of the gains um for pershing square in 2020 were actually a result of you know obviously that biggest one was the credit default swaps but then more just as importantly i would say is what was done with the proceeds for the gains on those credit default swaps so let's let's take a look at that uh here's the total assets under management for pershing square 12 billion as of february 16th um right invested hedging gains at deeply discounted prices okay so that's what we're going to talk about here um so here we go redeployment of hedging gains this is key guys immediate reinvestment of hedging gains allowed us to increase our exposure to high quality businesses we understood well at deeply discounted prices okay now the biggest one there was starbucks um so you got this 2.6 billion coming in from this you know shorting corporate bonds bet uh and where was that money deployed it was deployed into starbucks right a great spawner uh for a 78 cumulative return um so from basically march april time frame to the end of the year all right just just incredible what that does when you've got a bet that really pays off on the downside and then you're able to pump those gains at bargain prices in these stocks and then they just do incredibly obviously for the rest of the year so it was really kind of a double move betting that it was going to drop and then at the bottom plowing those proceeds back into these great companies so you've got starbucks you got howard hughes incredible return this year lowe's hilton restaurant brands so that's really the story here uh is that kind of two-step move uh and of course you've got this spack which has done incredibly well so far the world's largest spack let's see right this is kind of a a unique thing about this particular spec the sponsor warrants are 100 owned by pursing pershing square funds unlike other specs no founder shares accrue to individual promoters here's the spac price performance since ipo so back in july is when this thing went public at twenty dollars per share i think this was the peak 35 because like i said now it's down um to about 29 per share um yeah guys so that that's that's the big news for for pershing square and then you know they kind of go through their individual there's like six or seven uh equity positions a very concentrated portfolio run by bill ackman um we don't need to we don't need to dive into each of these right now i just want to see if there's anything else right exited positions so berkshire was exited in may may of 2020 and the reasoning there we made the decision to sell the position to deploy the capital into more opportunistic investments maybe something that bill ackman regrets we'll have to see how that plays out but that's the decision that was made so anyway guys i just wanted to kind of take you on a whirlwind tour through what's behind this 70 performance by pershing square holdings in 2020 just incredible um let me know if any of you guys own pershing square holdings or pershing square tontine holdings the spec very curious to hear from you guys and you know what you think of all this what you think of bill ackman's performance in 2020 and what you expect moving forward uh over the next couple of years um curious to hear from you guys i know ackman is pretty bullish on this fannie mae freddie mac bet so you know moving through the supreme court should be interesting to see what happens here there is i think there's a write-up for fannie mae in value investors club i think bill ackman was thinking it could be like a 10x or something like that so it's it's pretty interesting i haven't dug too much into it yet but but check that out if you're interested and let me know what you find i'd like to know more about that anyway guys just wanted to share this breaking news with you and with that i will see you all in the next video take care
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