저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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이 영상은 제러미 그랜섬의 2021년 1월 인터뷰를 인용해 현재 시장이 닷컴 버블보다 더 극단적인 버블 국면이라고 경고하며, 리스크 축소를 권하는 내용이다. 근거 1: 그랜섬은 버블이 완벽한 경제와 연준의 우호적 정책이 맞물려야 생긴다고 보며, 지금은 재정지출과 연준 완화가 결합된 상태라고 진단했다. 근거 2: OTC 거래량이 2020년 2월 8천만 주에서 11월 3.8억 주, 12월 11.5억 주로 급증했고, 퀀텀스케이프는 10달러에서 130달러로 올라 GM·파나소닉보다 시총이 컸다는 사례를 제시했다. 근거 3: 금리는 1980년대 16%에서 거의 0%까지 내려와 금리 인하라는 정책 수단이 소진됐다고 보며, 일본 1989년 PER 65배 사례를 들어 버블은 예상보다 더 오를 수 있다고 경계했다. 근거 4: 그랜섬은 개별 종목 공매도를 전문가에게만 허용되는 위험한 전략으로 보았고, 버블은 수개월 내 터질 가능성이 높다고 전망했다. 다만 연준 유동성 확대로 상승이 이어질 변수도 인정했다. 근거 5: 그랜섬은 장기적으로 주가는 배당과 이익 흐름에 수렴하며, 고평가 자산은 장기 수익률이 낮아진다고 강조했다. 신흥국 저평가 가치주와 버크셔·페어팩스 같은 대안을 언급했다. 진행자 결론: 전량 매도는 아니지만 고평가 성장주 비중을 줄이고, 순자산가치 근처에서 거래되는 스팩 등 하방이 제한된 자산으로 이동할 것을 권고한다. 진행자는 자신도 보유 종목을 점검해 일부를 현금화했다고 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 버블이 몇 년이 아닌 몇 달 내 꺼질 것으로 보며, 진행자는 리스크 축소를 적극 고려하라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
hey what's up stock compounders brad here so i've been having a little bit of a spidey sense recently about where the markets are at uh and i saw this interview just today with jeremy grantham now jeremy grantham a great value investor he's been doing this a very long time and i really appreciated this interview grantham has done a lot of study of past bubbles and i just want to share a few insights that i got from this bloomberg interview from just a couple days ago on january 22nd with jeremy grantham so um you know he says normally it takes a nearly perfect economy and friendly fed behavior to produce a bubble right clearly we don't have a perfect economy right now this one has managed to do it with a somewhat wounded economy on a global basis right we've got shutdowns everywhere and to compensate for that we've had even more spectacular fed friendliness and government friendliness all right um for once we've had the joining of fiscal spending with fed behavior all right the predominant belief now is that all it takes is the fed on your side and stocks will rise forever that feels feels about right feels like it's where we're at uh in this market what are the signs we'll all look at with the clarity of hindsight and say of course it was a bubble that was a question posed by eric here to jeremy grantham he said the best timing for a bubble top is crazy behavior so what is that jeremy grantham points to the over-the-counter trading okay the otc market uh jeremy was a big otc trader in the speculative bubble of 1969 so we're going back more than 50 years here this this guy has been through some stuff right he's been through some market cycles um so he's looking at over-the-counter trading in february of 2020 80 million shares were traded for the month on the otc exchange that's 80 million in february by the time it got to november november 2020 there were 380 million shares traded okay in one month so it kind of ramped up from 80 million in february to 380 million in november of last year so you know that's that's four what four and a half x now from november to december of 2020 december 1.15 billion okay so you know you've got a ramping basically all year to get to like four times as much trading activity by november and then all it takes is one month for for a triple right three times as much activity um i'd be i'm going to be very curious to see what's happening in january on the otc market uh but that's one thing we can point to like okay clearly you know markets are just taking off like a hockey stick in terms of activity uh his own stock in a company quantum escape came into the market at ten dollars and shot up to a hundred and thirty dollars i think just within the last couple of months a 13x right in a very short period of time that was actually uh acquired by a spac it was reversed merger through a spack to be taken public so at that 130 dollars per share this company was bigger than gm or panasonic okay a bigger market cap than general motors or panasonic and it was four years away from producing its first battery right no sales no profit for four years and it's bigger than gm or panasonic so it's just it's just insane so some of these what some of these uh specs and and other stocks are doing right now he says it's more extreme than in 2000 more extreme than the dot-com bubble and he talks about in 2000 the market went down 50 percent i think in the first year it dropped by half uh and it only went down 50 percent and then it bounced back the reason for that is because the fed came charging in and had room to lower interest rates right so let's take a quick look this is interesting this uh this chart here should be loading so this is interest rates going back we'll see where it goes back to load the interactive chart you can do it um right so here is 2000 right so we're somewhere around five and a half percent so there was a little wiggle room there we could still lower interest rates and you can see here this is very interesting you look at you know back to 1980 1981 interest rates got to almost 16 percent so look at how far they've come down over the last 40 years okay basically from 16 percent down to effectively zero i mean what what were we here half a percent so you know it's easy looking at this chart to understand why we've had such a great run over the last 40 years we've had this lever to lower interest rates to to stimulate the economy and we don't have that anymore with that that lever no longer we don't have access to that that's done um the easy pickings of ramping rates down is behind us is what grantham says about that at the lowest rates in history you don't have a lot of levers which is what i just said uh but then he talks about the back of every bear's mind right bear being you know you think the market is going to go down right very soon in the back of every bear's mind must surely be japan so what happened to japan in 1989 japan managed to get to 65 times earnings okay for the japanese stock market 65 times price to earnings um it had never previously gone over 25 okay so you know frothy markets can can go up uh much higher than than we can anticipate so you know that's that's a big um warning to anybody who's trying to short stocks even though clearly we're in a bubble clearly uh segments of the market are very frothy crazy behavior happening but it can get crazier guys there are no laws of physics that say it can't get crazier or that it has to peak at a certain level of craziness so you know that's just one thing we have to navigate as investors even when things you know it feels frothy that doesn't mean you should bet on a downward trend uh doesn't necessarily mean you should pull all your money to the sidelines these are things that make it complicated to navigate but this is what we're dealing with today you just don't know how long and how high a market can go if you avoid the burst of euphoria is what grantham said it's the burst of euphoria that typically brings these things to an end and we are seeing it all around us today the euphoria is what grantham is referring to going short you know he was asked about tesla clearly tesla must be incredibly overvalued right now right so why not short tesla grantham says going short is for a handful of superstar experts you can lose multiples of your money when you go short a stock right you go bankrupt you can lose all of your money and of course you can't finish the game we can't finish this game of investing right we can't get to the promised land uh if we're knocked out of the game and and that's what you expose yourself to when you short stocks you can get margin called into bankruptcy do not go short individual stocks is grantham's advice around betting that a market is going to go down what is to stop prices from continuing to rise from here is a question posed by eric when you have reached this level of obvious super enthusiasm the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months not a few years okay so grantham is fairly convinced that we're going to see this thing pop within the next couple of months but of course there's a wild card right we saw what happened back in march right this massive injection of liquidity by the fed into the markets there's really nothing from stopping that from happening again and you know kicking the can down the road so to speak so you know we can't predict when but here's the big point just finishing the last few points which which are pretty critical to kind of wrap up grantham's thought process here the market is going to end up as we know where it is going to end up and all the paper in the world will not change the level that is justified by the flow of dividends and earnings that is after all the only thing you can end up eating the flow of dividends and sooner or later the stock market will once again sell on the future flow of dividends future cash flows right that's the name of the game here when confidence has reached these levels the history books are pretty clear it's very difficult to increase your enthusiasm from a state of mild hysteria where we are today um so that's really what's what fuels these markets as people get more and more excited the market goes up and up and up because people pile more and more money into the markets but at some point you've reached peak euphoria right and that's when things start to turn as people are getting these stimulus checks they're getting unemployment checks they don't have a lot to spend it on right sure they have rent they got food but you know a lot of people are living fairly frugal lifestyles these days when we're not going out we're not traveling you know it's it's easier to save and invest especially with all this money being sent to us by the government so you know that could keep it going for a while uh we just we don't we don't know but it's it's interesting to to really try to wrap your head around that um last couple points i suspect that selling everything would work out just fine so eric says you know are you suggesting people might consider selling all of their stocks right grantham says well you know it's probably not the worst thing you can do he's not advocating for it uh i'm not doing that i'm not you know getting out of of stocks at this point but what i am doing is taking a good hard look at each of the holdings in my portfolio and asking myself how far can this fall right in a crash uh how much risk am i taking by owning this asset at this price uh and i've you know you know like i've said i've gotten into a few stacks pretty close to net asset value really just cash alternatives knowing there's very minimal downside there and there's a lot of upside we've seen what can happen with spax when a you know a deal is announced but a lot of them have gone up quite a bit since since i put money in and i find myself pulling out um that initial principle in some cases just liquidating the position entirely to bring it back into cash um so i am taking some risk off the table uh you know he is seeing opportunities not so much you know in the us but in emerging markets right overseas particularly value stocks in emerging markets so you know that's one thing you can do if if you know you you've been riding these high flyers in your us portfolio uh there's plenty to to look at um internationally in emerging markets uh that there's a lot of value out there so that's an option and i've seen people doing that in corner of berkshire and fairfax really trimming these kind of high flyers in the u.s and rolling them into berkshire hathaway or fairfax holdings or some of these emerging market etfs so it could be a very strong play right now and then finally the higher you bid up an asset the lower your long-term returns okay that's kind of a law of gravity in the investing arena the higher the price of an asset the lower your expected returns over time and that kind of irrefutable um so you know we're seeing some very frothy asset prices today you know you look at quantum scape higher market cap than gm not going to be selling anything until four years from now that that is just insane so you guys i just wanted to throw this video out there because i've been getting some i've been getting this spidey sense that it's really time to start aggressively taking risk off the table in my portfolio and i just wanted to share that with you guys really consider that consider doing that now um and again that doesn't mean cash you know maybe you find some specs that are you can get close to net asset value i'm sure there's there's always opportunities where you've got asymmetric upside to downside but now i think is really the time to start moving some money out of the high flyers into those safer where you're closer to the floor okay there's less room to fall find those opportunities that's that's what i'm looking for at the moment so anyway guys check out this whole talk it's only 38 minutes long it's it's really good i have i've never the first talk i've heard um from jeremy grantham uh and he really seems like he knows what he's talking about there's just a lot of resonance i was getting watching this video so i will link to this in the description and uh that's all i got for today just uh a little warning a word of caution from your friendly stock compounder alright guys i'll see you in the next video take care
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