저자: BradKaellner—영상주제인물:LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
Li Lu의 2019년 중국 칭화대 학생 Q&A(번역본)를 소개하는 영상으로, 개별 종목·자산의 가격 전망은 등장하지 않는다. 주제 1 – 매도측 애널리스트에서 가치투자자로 전환: 매수측은 소유주 관점으로 기업을 보고, 강점뿐 아니라 투자 실패 가능성(역으로 뒤집어 보기, Charlie Munger)을 먼저 점검해야 한다. 영업 인센티브가 있으면 '돼지에 립스틱'식 설명에 빠지기 쉽다. 주제 2 – 열정과 끈기: 가치투자 기질이 있어도 흥미와 열정이 없으면 중도에 떠나게 된다. 돈을 많이 벌 수 있는 분야가 아니라 자신이 좋아하는 분야를 따라야 한다는 조언이다. 주제 3 – 기업 이해의 검증: 가치투자는 예측 작업이며, 이해 여부는 예측이 맞았는지로 판단된다. 최악의 시나리오(10년 뒤 기준)를 설명할 수 있어야 하며, 인지 편향과 능력 범위(circle of competence)의 경계를 아는 것이 중요하다. 주제 4 – 지식 축적 방법: 지식은 검증 가능하고 논리와 사실에 기반해야 한다. 실제 문제는 대부분 확률·통계 문제이므로 대략적으로 맞는 결과를 받아들여야 하며, 과학적 방법과 지적 정직성, 열정을 바탕으로 지식을 조금씩 쌓아야 한다. 주제 5 – 경영진 대 기업 이해: 기업 성과는 경영진 품질과 산업 경쟁 구조에 달려 있다. 좋은 환경에서는 평범한 경영진도 뛰어난 성과를 낼 수 있다. 따라서 경영진과 산업 동인 모두를 이해해야 하며, 예측이 불확실할수록 안전마진(margin of safety)이 중요하다. 결론: 영상은 가치투자 원칙과 태도에 관한 교육적 내용이며, 특정 자산의 방향성 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
compounders brad here so lilu is one of my favorite value investors one of my favorite investors and he very rarely speaks in public i think once a year maybe he speaks to students at you know where where he went to college at columbia um so it's pretty unusual this is only the second time he's spoken in china okay back in november of 2019 to students at peaking university uh and this q a was actually translated uh by by this fellow who runs this blog so and it's so good guys there's so there's so many gems of wisdom in this q a um so i'm probably going to take two or three videos to kind of break down uh these these q and a um question and answers and so this is going to be the first one i'm trying i'm going to try to get through the first five there's 12 different questions that lilu gets into uh and you know this the speech and the q a i guess are in his new book modernity value investing and china unfortunately i can't find this book in english so you know that we'll start with this this uh translated q a session so let's get into it the first question i've been a sell side analyst for more than 10 years now what challenges do you think there are for me to become a value investor can you teach an old dog new tricks so lilu says switching from the cell to the buy side requires a change in mindset i have a business owner's mindset because after i bought my first stock i thought the company belonged to me this is human nature we think the things which belong to us are special and it's similar on the sell side if you're incentivized to pitch a stock you're always going to be inclined to put lipstick on a pig perhaps even to describe it as a unicorn so you know that's a problem you're going to look for the saleable qualities of of this investment opportunity uh it's very different when when you're trying to figure out if you should buy something as a value investor you know do you want to buy into this company do you want to be a part owner of this company obviously you don't just want to look at the bright sides right you want to invert the story you want to try to figure out what's wrong with this investment potentially why shouldn't you buy it that this this really gets into the power of inverting the story which i first learned about from charlie munger the problem with many folks who start on the sell side they can't stop selling right they're so good at it that they've fooled themselves and lilu has seen this many times of course he pulls out the quote from richard feynman which is one of my favorites you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool so you know this is why i see the most important thing is to stay objective and rational so how do you do that how do you stay objective and rational he thinks the best thing would be to spend some time making investments on your own right feel the difference in psychology between pitching investment ideas and actually owning these businesses after a while you really feel that these companies belong to you your frame of reference will begin to change dramatically the way you gather information will change your antenna changes direction and once it does you realize that the information you gather is different as well so that's that's his advice you know how to switch from sell side to the buy side uh question two studying mistakes can help us understand success have you seen any determined young people fail let me just flip this on real quick again have you seen any determined young people fail in the end as value investors because they are unable to stick with it even if they possess the temperament that you described earlier so he described this temperament in his actual talk before the q a session if so why do you think they failed i've seen many different people fail for many different reasons the most important of which is passion this was very interesting to me for someone to stick with something and get good at it they must be interested and passionate say for example you have someone with a value investor's temperament right they have the right temperament for investing but who is more passionate about other things after studying value investing for a little while they will turn their attention elsewhere which is totally understandable and quite reasonable the most important thing is not to think about in which pursuit you can earn more money because if you do that you'll always be jumping around because there will always be people who earn more money than you if you measure your life based on how much money you can earn you will always be miserable right envy buffett talks about this oh it's the only you know sin that's you don't have any fun with uh you must therefore follow your passions okay so that's interesting um and it's something it's a shift i've been making recently from you know just trying to find the best investments kind of on their own merits versus you know what am i really interested in that's why i've been putting out a little bit more content around sustainability around uh you know kind of switching to this transitioning to this low carbon uh economy very interesting companies that can help us with that transition so that was that was an interesting point there question three how do i know if i really understand a company is there an objective benchmark to test my understanding so this this one really gets into detail so lilu says as value investors we're in the business of forecasting so determining whether you understand a company or not is simply a matter of assessing whether your forecasts were right or wrong sounds simple enough however the answer won't immediately reveal itself you'll have to wait many years to get it if you are intellectually honest you will insist on knowing the answer and so will naturally learn if you really understood or not i hold my employees to a standard if they really understand a company they're researching then they must be able to say what will be the worst case for that company 10 years from now the best case scenario will usually take care of itself right if you have the worst case scenario accounted for uh so i really like that you know what what is the downside how certain can you be that the downside is the actual downside the worst case scenario uh so it's a hard question right to know if you really understand the company why because many people possess because people possess many cognitive biases everyone possesses cognitive biases charlie munger listed 25 of these biases in poor charlie's almanac and they're ba maybe even more in reality they exist because our minds are the product of natural selection and their main function is for us to survive and procreate right very basic kind of wiring however our living conditions today are the result of cultural evolution we live in a civilized society many of whose role rules do not fit with biological evolution as a result many of our innate cognitive biases serve us poorly making it hard for us to be objective and rational in our judgment this is such a key point guys this is why we will encounter the problem raised in this question in our studies and research you might think you understand something but you don't understand your innate blind spots nor the way they mislead you into a view which ultimately proves wrong in other words you didn't actually understand in the first place so when you think you understand something you must first understand what you don't know because our knowledge is limited the most important concept in the circle of competence is its boundary right it's a bounded circle right there's things that we know and there's things that we don't know and it's really important to know where that edge is if you do not know where its boundaries lie and believe you know everything then you certainly do not you also need to understand that when you know something is right you must also know when it will go wrong so this is interesting monger has a standard which i think is immensely useful he says if you want to hold an opinion then you must be able to refute it better than the smartest person you can find who disagrees with you which is something you know ray dalio talks about as well if you can't then you don't deserve to hold that view this is a good standard which you can use to judge whether you really understand something if you can do this there is a chance that you understand it that you actually understand it but you must know when your understanding is wrong in other words you must know that you're when that your competence is bounded if you don't know the limits of your competency you can't possibly understand as there is no way you understand everything so you know a little abstract but this depends on intellectual honesty and rigorous content requires continuous training is very hard to do immediately so you know this whole thing is about circle of competence knowing what you know and what you don't know um question four you just spoke about how to achieve real understanding you also spoke earlier about how value investing is a learning process could you please talk a bit about which learning methods can help us compound our knowledge knowledge must fulfill several basic conditions to be considered useful first it must be able to be verified it must be supported by logic and the facts you can see for yourself moreover it should confer a high degree of explanatory power at the same time it should be helpful for making predictions when we look at real life it is scientific knowledge which best meets these standards however many of the phenomena we encounter in real life have no foundation in scientific theory because they relate to people and in the case of people we must think in terms of a distribution of probabilities so important guys when you study mathematics statistics is far more important than calculus so you must study it well this is because virtually all problems in the real world are statistical problems let's go back to the question then how should we go about studying real world problems you still need to use scientific methods but you must understand that all you will get are rough results this is so counter to everything i learned in school right you know i studied engineering at uw madison and there was always a right answer this is so not the case when it comes to investing of course it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong and yet scientific methods remain the most effective means with which to compound your knowledge another useful method is to let your passions be your guide to again bringing up the passion factor when you become really interested in something you can accumulate knowledge about it faster more effectively and better than anyone else at the end of the day you will be using this knowledge in a competitive environment your judgment must be better than someone else's when you're really interested in something you will keep pursuing it even when others have given up when others are satisfied you will keep going you will keep inquiring this is what will give you an edge so in the end the only reliable approach i've seen is to accumulate your knowledge piece by piece by letting your passions be your guide using a scientific approach and maintaining intellectual honesty okay one more number five it seems there are two models for success in our circle the first looks like looks at the big picture and puts their trust in exceptional companies run by honest managers they then step back completely and let management do the work for them the second hopes to understand the company even better than management with nothing too big or too small what do you think of these two styles these styles are actually both a part of acquiring knowledge the quality of management is a big variable for companies when a company is in its early stages or growing rapidly its founder and senior managers have an enormous impact on value creation this is especially true when we look over a long time horizon and the longer the time horizon the more important this becomes however many companies are driven more by the competitive dynamics of their industry not any single person's determination no matter how good someone is they will not be able to produce exceptional results in a terrible environment however even a person of modest abilities can produce exceptional results in the right settings for example there are some exceptional chinese state-owned enterprises whose senior managers have no experience doing business that's shocking to me and yet this in no way impacts their ability to produce good results each industry's conditions are different and must be analyzed on their own merits however the standard we use should be the same your knowledge should allow you to make reasonably accurate forecasts with a high degree of certainty about what conditions will be like many years into the future no matter how you go about doing it or from what angle you look you must cover each and every aspect if you want to understand a company you must understand its management and the basic drivers of its industry this is one of the reasons why value investing is so hard there are many many things you must understand this is therefore why we must have a margin of safety we must have a margin of safety because our forecasts are limited as is our knowledge we can't know everything but if you have a sufficient margin of safety and enough protection in the price same thing you can still make a lot of money even when you don't fully understand something the margin of safety is therefore especially important when the future isn't clear you must choose those opportunities which are especially cheap and when you're choosing amongst multiple opportunities the bottom line is that they should be cheap margin of safety super important all right guys i'm losing my voice so i'm gonna end on number five uh but we're going to do six through 12 maybe in one more video maybe two more videos but guys i hope you enjoy this this is so good so good distilling you know decades of value investing wisdom into you know a dozen questions so uh stay tuned much more to come alright guys see you in the next one
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