저자: ChristopheNour · 외국인
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David Tepper의 2024년 Q4 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석. 중국 자산(알리바바, 핀둬둬, 징둥, 중국 ETF) 비중을 대폭 확대(전체 약 1/3)하고 미국 기술주 일부를 축소. 알리바바는 PER 약 10, EV/FCF 약 10으로 저평가이나 성장 정체 및 경쟁 심화가 리스크. 미국 에너지(비스트라, NRG)와 AI 인프라(AMD, 마이크론, ASML, 램리서치) 테마도 유지. 진행자는 중국 기술주 중 알리바바가 가장 저렴하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
in this video I want to review the portfolio of David terer you have the latest update from the 13f and you see a lot of moves in his portfolio you see that he added to alibaba's Holdings he added some Chinese exposure and he was already famous for calling big investment in China but seems like he increased the Chinese Holdings so that definitely shows some conviction in this video we will try to go um and analyze what is important in his portfolio see what he has increased see the reduction in his portfolio what he trimmed he trimmed some stocks to buy more Chinese names we will make a review of this portfolio it will be quite complete and you see a lot of things are happening at the beginning of 2025 so it will be a very interesting year for this portfolio and I will make sure to follow it in the coming months in case this is your first video from this YouTube channel welcome my name is kristofh n I've been investing in the stock market for almost a decade now and I have achieved a performance of 25% per year and I follow what David terer is doing and in the past his biggest position was Alibaba he went on CNBC to call for the Chinese bull market a lot of dividends a lot of BuyBacks a lot of implementation the economy is expected to recover and now the Chinese economy right now is at a bad State we'll say it this way they have deflation they don't have a uh thriving economy you don't have a lot of consumption we start to see some recovery signs like consumption for example and the businesses in China were hit by the Slowdown more regulation hit by Co after effect so if you look at his biggest holding Alibaba that's 15% of his portfolio and he added 20% more that definitely shows some conviction if you don't know what Alibaba does well this is the big big company over there and the PE ratio for this company is roughly a PE ratio of 10 the company has some cash in the balance sheet if you look at the quarterly data you see that the cash pile decreased because the buyback program increased they use some of their cash to pay a dividend they use some of their cash to pay a to pay a buy to do a buyback program and now seems like they have a net cash of what $2 billion $30 billion so the dry powder is not that big anymore so maybe they will slow down in BuyBacks okay if you look at the EV to free cash flow of this company EV if when you take into account to the balance sheet and the free cash flow is what matters for this company oh let let me oh too bad you can see that the E to free cash flow is roughly 10 so you are paying a very cheap valuation for this company the main problem of Alibaba right now is the lack of growth it's becoming too big too costly and in terms of market share Alibaba has been losing market share because of strong strong competition over there you have jd.com you have PDD you have even in the cloud they are losing to the tense and cloud is terms of market share this is very aggressive competitive and fierce so Alibaba is not the leader anymore because of such a strong competition and Alibaba is not growing anymore if you look at the revenue growth in blue here you see that since 2022 no growth when it comes to the net income you see that it has been hit by the uh 2022 effect and has not rebounded yet in terms of the free cash flow look at this this is in blue free cash flow has not moved since 2020 you it's stable so the company is not moving anymore is not growing and is using he the big amount of cash they have to do BuyBacks and dividends what is the good multiple you pay for this such an investment such a stock do you pay a PE ratio of 10 PE ratio of 15 I'm not sure I'm not sure but seems like David terer is loving this risk reward is Ling this situation you are aware of the development in China from I mean all the Chinese tech companies with um I mean that's a fun but you have dips you have the chat GPT equivalent from Alibaba that is working well seems like Alibaba is still here in the AI race how far is uh this company is Alibaba how behind is Alibaba in this AI race actually is very hard for me to to have a conclusion to this and to this question but still laaba is still uh here in the AI race and David terer is betting on the company coming back to growth I'm not sure about this we will see in the coming days with the earnings report we will see the company comes back to growth but definitely it shows some conviction Alibaba is the biggest best biggest bet and my opinion is out of the Chinese Tech Alibaba is the cheapest one you have this big behav moth filled with cash that generates strong cash flow and you have this clear Capital allocation policy more BuyBacks more dividends look at this they are buying back what on on an annual basis trailing 12 months you will buy back 5% of your shares and and you have a dividend yield of 1% so 4 + 1 you have a 5% shareholder yield if the business comes back to growth the business will will make wonders but that's a bet on the growth of the company by the way if you're looking for a complete framework to analyze stocks and build a strong portfolio I have a coaching program more than that at the end of the video okay the second biggest investment from David teer is Amazon he reduced the position in Amazon by 20% well that's a bit strange but because Amazon is growing much more than Alibaba but yeah I suppose you have to pay a a higher multiple for Amazon you have a PE ratio around 30 around 40 and he thinks you can make much more money if you just bet on China so okay very well you can compare uh Amazon versus jd.com come but okay very well that's just an allocation but that's not a big big change actually the third position is pinio almost no change Pino similarly it's in the e-commerce segment in China growing very fast growing very fast actually the growth has rebounded sharply and he added a little bit so maybe he trimmed some of his positions in red to add to most takech Holdings in China and look at this look at the growth from PDD this is a market cap of $160 billion the stock has been volatile and what about the valuation you have a 4p ratio of nine okay so basically the same valuation as Alibaba but you are talking about a company that continues to grow so maybe as a risk reward perspective maybe PDD is better because you have more profitable growth but um yeah maybe maybe David terer still thinks that Alibaba is the best opportunity out there okay no change for Microsoft he doubled his position in vistra maybe you know vistra because you follow what the senators in the US are doing you have some Investments over there call that whatever you want insider trading but that works you have ncy Pelosi investing a lot in vistra energy V Corp and this is a company in the energy Department look at this one of the largest power producers and Retail Energy providers in the US and the stock is going to the Stars basically a lot of growth recently for a company that is becoming profitable if you look at the ad vistra basically on a quarterly basis the revenue has not changed a lot if you look at the netting income that's a different story seems like the business is becoming incredibly profitable now and seems like you have a lot of projects and my guess is VRA energy is a big bet on AI data center that will need a lot of energy and David terer sees this you can check some videos on the internet where David terer is talking about his bet on vistra and all the energy players basically a lot of AI a lot of energy is needed and vistra is one of the key infrastructure plays so the portfolio of David taper is China AI energy because he still is investing in Amazon and Microsoft so he's still investing in Ai and Tech in the US also for jd.com he added 40% that's a lot that's a big increase and j.com is now 6% of his portfolio if you check jd.com you have a profile very similar to Alibaba you have a company that is quite big not as Big Al as Alibaba you have a PE ratio of nine okay and you have a growth that has stopped look at this this is the revenue in blue no growth since 2021 and if you look at the net income different story this is not clear and up and to the right if you look at the most quarterly uh data the most recent data I want to check the cash position look at this you still have a lot of cash you still have a net cash of six s billion do and what do you do with the cash you do BuyBacks so the story between Alibaba and j.com is very similar you have some cash flow you do some you do some BuyBacks you still are you are still big still profitable but the growth is I mean you have no growth almost no growth for the company so all the cash is used to reward shareholders and additionally you have a dividend yield of 2% so 2% dividend yield plus a buyback yield of 3 4% that adds up to shareholder yield of 5 6% so you have a 6% shareholder yield for a company that is doing for the stock price that is doing nothing for a rather cheap valuation with the PE ratio of nine e to free cash flow of nine similarly you are at the exactly the same setup as for Alibaba right okay let me continue he didn't touch his alphabet position he reduced meta platforms Facebook Instagram by 20% similarly to Amazon so I think he took some of the gains from the CH from the US tech and just moved it to the Chinese Tech the same thing for Oracle he reduced by 10% that is not changing the story for the investment thesis just taking some of the profits to reallocate and uh we are talking about another Chinese investment for the Chinese ETF he increased by 10% if you look at this ETF what is that you have this ETF yeah basically that's the Chinese index for large cap that has been doing nothing for 20 years by the way uh yeah betting on the rebound of the global large cap ETF on China plus 10% adding more conviction he sold a little bit of lift that's the car sharing company and look at this another energy bet NRG to be honest I don't know this company NRG what is this NRG is one of the largest retail energy providers in the US again similarly to vistra he added a little bit more to AMD look at this another Chinese ETF that's the famous one that's the K web and he added 20% okay and you see that everything adds up that's the Chinese ETF look at this you have Alibaba that is 15% of his portfolio Pino 8% so that runs up to 23% plus j.com 5% so plus 28% of his portfolio is into China what do you have you have these ETF again 3% so what did we say 28 that's 31% % you add this one 33% beu is 2% so 35% of his portfolio is into China be in case you don't know that could be the equivalent of Google but in in China you have some differences but uh this is not really important this is a small part of his portfolio and what do you have remaining that's basically it onethird of his portfolio is into China he is buying more he trimmed the US tech a little bit to put the proceeds into China and he's also invested in key themes First China second is the AI US tech third is the energy some chips he added into lamb research I'm also a shareholder of lamb research so that's a cheap component play He Is invested in AMD so basically yeah he doubled his position in asml so same thing they are the best at EU lithography great companies he added more into Micron the themes of his portfolio are very clear very very clear you have some new holding here Corning that I don't know at all what is Corning is a leader in Materials Science specializing in the production of glass Ceramics and optical fiber okay that's interesting not in my circle of competence I want to check the charts of this company if you look at the revenue almost no growth they still have some debt the free cash flow for this company is going down that's strange the net income for this company is going down they have stopped doing BuyBacks and if I look at the most quarterly data I don't see a lot of change so that can be interesting in case you want to get exposure to this Market this can be a potential investment for you Cor so that's a large company $50 billion of market cap very interesting very interesting so that was for the update it's a very interesting portfolio and uh quite diverse you have 37 positions but the themes are really simple to understand China US tech energy data centers chips and uh I think this portfolio will have a great performance so that's it for for the review guys I wish you a nice rest of your day if you like this content I have an investing coaching program in this program you will learn a complete investing process you will learn how to find good stock ideas how to properly value stocks when to buy when to sell so that you can build a strong portfolio Additionally you will have access to my personalized guidance for long-term results we will do weekly calls where we analyze stocks together and you will have access to my private number available 24/7 for full support if you are blocked if you have any questions I'm here to help click 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