저자: AchillesLara · 외국인
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장 조정 구간에서 이익 실현이 나오는 것은 자연스럽다고 보고, Micron·Microsoft·Nvidia를 주목 종목으로 제시함. Micron은 18개월 기준 10~18% 상승 여력을 언급하며 조정 시 분할 매수 권유. Microsoft는 AI 인수 효과로 12~18개월 내 상승을 전망. Nvidia는 큰 조정을 매수 기회로 보며 20% 이상 상승 여력을 언급. 기술적 분석(Ben Lonstein)은 Micron 112 지지, Microsoft 405 지지, Nvidia 820~870 구간 지지를 주요 레벨로 제시.
다듬은 글
welcome back to trading 360 I'm Nicole pedales live on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange hrough the charts here to take us through the trades ailles Lara founder CEO of Lara wealth management glad you are both here we're seeing up arrows the Dows up 300 the S&P snaps four days of losing uh what do you think is going on in the markets Achilles I think we're taking that pause we talked about the last point it's pulling back right now the Market's readjusting itself a lot of profit taking is taking place at this point and it's welld deserved because people have made 30 40% in uh year-to-date numbers and why would you not take that type of profit right right and some of the names you're focusing on here I mean you certainly have Tech trades that are happening here I guess there's been some sort of pullback on some of these names you might think there's some opportunity let's start off here you have Micron um as the first name you're watching why is that yeah Micron just from a trading uh perspective it's kind of like Nvidia and we're going to talk about that but Micron is one of these companies that they're dominant in their sector the stock price has gone up significantly just in the past year alone we feel that there's a lot more room for there to run we're looking anywhere between 10 to 18% in an 18mon time frame I believe that number is conservative because we're probably going to be looking anywhere between % and over we also think that it's going to continue its dominance we don't see too many competitors catching up with them at this particular point it's interesting because you know people also who may be sort of um not feeling great today when they see new 52- we low on Tesla right it's a I saw it at 151 a short time ago Apple's had a hard time they may be saying I want to sort of put some money to work somewhere else um and split up the monies right and this is something you think has 10 to 18% upside potential let's talk to Ben lonstein taking a look at please at the charts Ben yeah you know Micron I I think is uh has been and continues to be very doing very well uh bit of a bullish pattern here across multiple time frames let's break it down starting off with a 4-Hour candle chart here because we've seen a micron reflection of that broader Market slowdown Limited in terms of real momentum follow through recently but you did see that big spike first and foremost in reaction to earnings if you remember back in the end of March and we got all the way up to 130 we've been mostly sideways since I did want to point out a couple areas that my eye was drawn to in terms of consolidation where the market has just paused and kind of established these uh well this trend to the upside I should say again this chart goes all the way back to end of February you see the high conviction move up we saw in reaction to earnings last month and you can see how we're kind of leaking lower here but still holding up above a key level I got on 112 I think that's a area to watch again anything with real conviction follow through below that uh kind of brings that idea that we're seeing value move higher into question right the Bulls are looking for a new area value to form above 122 they don't want to see us take out 112 let's step back here I want to show you what's going on in terms of a bit of a bigger picture look here at Micron where we are relative to the 50 the 200 day moving average you can see uh holding well above the 50 here still on the call so again uh that's a Line in the Sand also we had that big Gap up and the earnings move you can see that this is a stock that's done pretty well recently in reaction to earnings RSI rolling over here though right back down to those lows that we saw into the middle of March so leading in some ways getting ahead a bit ahead of price here but at this point looks to me like uh if we can hold levels up here again key levels 312 we're talking I'm sorry 112 we're talking uh that this could be just potentially another longer term buy opportunity in this longterm Trend to the upside we've seen yeah look that up to look at that breakout there above the moving averages final thoughts here on Micron yeah if you see any weakness in this stock you see a drop back a little pullback I would definitely use that opportunity to accumulate the shares and make a little bit more return on your money this year all right next up you have Microsoft this has been a family favorite certainly shareholders have been happy when they see Microsoft your thoughts on Microsoft which today is at 411 you know Microsoft's one of these companies that is re it keeps Reinventing itself they're gone and made some really good strategic uh I AI Acquisitions just recently so there's another opportunity for growth there uh they don't have to create the infrastructure anymore by doing that acquisition we believe it's going to be value it's going to be acced to earnings within the next 24 months or sooner we also believe that uh they're going to continue their dominance in the AI sector you know if you're looking for a top AI company not a lot of people are thinking of Microsoft at this point they're thinking of the other companies and Microsoft has a really good foothold in this sector so we see a nice move to the upside in the 12 to 18 months that's good people would love to hear more about that I mean chat GPT and open AI all of that has been um front and center so people must have paid attention I mean it's been one of the Great magnificent 7 take a look at the technicals on this one please Ben we just mentioned in terms of Micron Nicole that uh uh we were testing a key level right right around 11 12 holding above it very similar pattern in terms of Microsoft let's take a look first and foremost hourly candle chart in this instance migration value to the upside well defined Trend higher right the area balance that we're coming out of right now is around 420 and the area you can see that we're testing is at 405 so still kind of holding above that key level right now in area where if the Bulls are still in charge you expect them to flex some muscle here but yeah coming off those recent highs up around 431 not what the Bulls want to see but still hanging in there pretty well considering again some of the broader Market weakness let's add a little time onto this discussion here and you can see why I'm still giving the benefit of the doubt to the Bulls here because throughout this process and we're going all the way back here on this uh daily candle chart here to the beginning of uh January we're talking 20 uh 23 and well here you can see well defined Trend up here uh uh very easily identifiable 405 is Line in the Sand right now again 420 is the area that we're balancing around testing the lower extreme of and well working our way out of it the Bulls want to see this hold they want to see a new area value form at a higher level let's take a look at where we are relative to the 50 the 200 much like the broader Market here we've seen a little bit of a dip below that shorter dated the blue lines the 50 similar pattern here in terms of RSI though as we uh took a look at with uh uh Micron it's leaking lower right back to levels we haven't seen since the fall of last year so a little bit of a concern relative strength indicator leading price lower here it looks like but uh one to watch here again at a critical kind of make or break point in some ways the bull are still in ch Bulls still in charge you expect them to step up at some point real soon here Nicole yeah all right thank you for that the Bulls need to step in on this kind of when it's crossing over the moving averages there are opportunities when you see this name Trading at this level at 411 do you buy it here today and where do you think it's headed yeah I don't think you're gonna get hurt by buying at this point we're going to see some resistance of course as Ben was alluding to and with that resistance comes the opportunity hey maybe it'll pull back a little bit but I don't think you're going to get hurt if you buy it right now how about Nvidia which has had a big pullback is that a buying opportunity yeah I believe Nvidia is a big buying opportunity anytime we have that kind of a pull bot in that type of high quality stock you want this to be part of your portfolio you want to keep accumulating it don't go past your allotted percentage if you're a portfolio manager but at the same time you should see anywhere between 20% and a little bit higher we are being conservative on that number because a lot of people will say well it's gone up 70% or what have you but you still want to be cognizant of the fact that there could be a couple of more pullbacks there could be some more near-term resistance at this point at this point with the stock but we could also see something interesting where it allow us to accumulate a little bit more as we said the whole the Market's kind of taking a little bit of a pause and saw these wonderful stocks it's just another opportunity to get in there and be a good owner and make money yeah I mean last week I start at uh maybe 839 at one point I didn't check what the low was but you know and I said said oh look at this and then it shot back up and so it's certainly had some volatility lately let's hear about the technicals Ben lonstein well let's start with a quick look at some of the price activity we've seen the Decay off the recent highs we saw up around 974 Just sh 975 and how not what the Bulls are looking for but again similar to the other two that we looked at possibly just stacking up for this longer term buy opportunity because we still have a bull Trend playing out on the bigger picture we'll get into that in just a second here you can see from the level I mentioned 974 series of lower Highs coming into play lower lows in fact it does look like some of that momentum here if we've established a lower extreme at 824 could start to taper off maybe we'll start to balance out here around this we'll call it 85060 870 level but let's step back from this uh look at the more intraday price activity the move we just identified was this one from 974 down so you can see somewhat counter Trend to that longer term Trend up right we've seen migration of value the upside currently testing or establishing a new lower scream around the balance that's been forming around 910 you've got an upper ex scream well defined up around 974 should we find a bottom here hold above 720 the Line in the Sand well back through 910 opens up a door for a retest of that all-time high let's take another step back I want to show you what's going on uh another uh just adding some time on and really solidifying that working assumption that we are in a well- defined Trend up off the lows from we're going all the way back to last summer now around 392 off that lower extreme balance form forming around this 900 level and again in many ways Nicole exactly what the Bulls are looking for right no they don't want to see the price Decay from 974 to back to where we are right now but they do want to see value being established at this upper level and then eventually a breakout to the upside new area value forming at a higher level one more chart for you so we can see where we are relative to the 50 the 200 day moving average look at Nvidia holding that key level so again we're at this kind of make a break point for lots of these stocks here you can understand why they've getting so much attention over the last couple days but I think that what we're seeing here more is just investors in that jitteriness that unease that we feel as you pull back a little bit off all-time highs we've experienced this multiple times along the way up those that have been sticking with this for the long term have been rewarded handsomely all right thank you for all of that Ben Leon sign great to see you there on the charts breaking it down and obviously I love the little things he writes on there to watch the trends that we've been seeing final thoughts here Achilles yeah uh you have to be smart and you have to be strategic about what you're going to acquire at this point you don't want to be caught too early at the punch but at the same time you want to pick the high quality companies and if you want to start looking at a sector rotation at this point that wouldn't be too bad of an idea to take a look at some new names uh albe it you could still stay uh in technology and the like but why not take a look at some different are areas and make some money in other places all right Achilles laa great to see you thank you so much good look at the big three today all the names you know Micron Microsoft and Nvidia thank you Achilles
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