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코로나19 추가 부양책을 두고 상원 공화당이 자체 법안을 준비 중이며, 실업수당 600달러 연장은 축소(300~450달러)될 가능성이 있다고 전망. 실업수당 만료(7/25~7/31)와 8월 휴회 전 처리 기대는 과도하다고 봄. 치료제 발표가 경제 재개를 앞당길 수 있다고 언급하고, 확진자 증가는 검사 확대 때문이며 사망자 추이는 완화 가능성이 있다고 함. 장기 투자 관점에서 '매수 후 기다리기'를 강조하고, 포트폴리오 충격 자산 비중은 10% 미만으로 줄였다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
everyone meet Kevin here with a lot to cover on the next rounds of stimulus the coronavirus and some important updates in the event you're invested in the stock market or a real estate I'll cover those towards the end though today is July 5th in the latest 20/20 news as if this year couldn't get weirder apparently Kanye West is now suggesting he wants to run for president in 2020 in which Elon Musk has already indicated his full support why do I feel like this is an episode of SNL anyway we don't know yet which party he's going to run for but we do know that the BBC has already looked up a possible registration for Kanye West in the Federal Election Commission's database and this is a quote directly from their article the closest name the FEC database shows is a candidate called Kanye deez nutz West who filed their papers with the Green Party in 2015 under the address 1977 a gold digger Avenue and appears to have raised no money all right now before we hit other news remember this video sponsored by life insurance and your ability to get two free stocks in the links are down below now let's get started leaks from Capitol Hill suggest that Senate Republicans are quietly putting their own a face for bill together this is both good news but it's also bad news this is good news for the progress on the next a stimulus package whatever that may end up being but it's potentially bad news for those benefiting or who would benefit from the heroes Act that Democrats proposed the heroes Act contained large payments for state and local governments more stimulus checks twelve hundred and twelve hundred we've talked about those before and included heroes pay for essential workers that would have given essential workers $13 per hour boosts up to ten thousand dollars for most workers and up to five thousand dollars for highly paid workers both of these unfortunately have not been very popular with Republicans if Republicans then drop their own bill both of these might not make it in we might not see that funding state and local governments would need we might not see that heroes pay and stimulus checks of course are still up in the air however apparently a Republicans are starting to draft this bill in an effort to get all Republicans on the same page before they negotiate with Democrats remember Republicans drafted the cares Act which was ultimately passed by both sides so we kind of have this precedent of the Senate and Republicans drafting the first successful set of legislation and then plowing it through the house and this somewhat makes sense because remember the presidency is controlled by a Republican a Senate is controlled by Republican and Democrats well they controlled the house which you can't pass anything without the people in the house well when you have two-thirds of the power you tend to get your way and you tend to be the one who's able to draft the bill now so far this is what we know about Republicans we know that Republicans are interested in a reduced unemployment boost that's gonna be down from $600 to maybe 300 to 400 dollars maybe up to $450 per week instead of that $600 per week unemployment boost and you'd possibly be able to take some of that back to work with you we now know that Republicans are interested in funding for children and schools funding for testing and of course liability protections for businesses to sort of prevent frivolous lawsuits from people who go patronize a business and then blame that business for getting kovat now it's also possible that a second round of payments for those who take PPP loans will be in this sort of Republican drafted bill because we continue to see the fact that well there's so much money left in the pot if nobody else wants this money left in the pot for businesses let's just give it well give more money to the businesses that already took some money now so far Donald Trump has pretty much been the only one who's been pitching things like a payroll tax cut stimulus checks and credits of for travel and restaurants we're not sure how much of that is politically motivated and how much of that is being said to try to rally Republicans around including those ideas in the Republican bill that's now being drafted in the Senate there's also a lot of talk on YouTube that the Senate has to get something done by the August recess which begins on August 7th and there's this implication that the world is going to end if the Senate doesn't get something done by August 7th so it must be done by August 7th especially because unemployment benefits expire on July 31st and effectively unemployment benefits actually expire a few days before that closer to July 25th so realistically Congress better get their act together by like July 25th and the 31st at the latest right well this suggests that Congress actually has to pass something big by then in my opinion it sets the wrong expectation technically Congress has all the power in the world to just say mmm $600 boost let's just extend that for another month and go on another recess starting on August 7th so I don't think just because people can look at a recess calendar that we can say for sure that Congress is going to do something by a certain date which I will say is going to make us all lose our minds if we don't see another bill passed by August 7th but now here's the thing for a look at the $600 per week debate here's a quick synopsis of what Senator Ron Wyden a ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee this is actually the committee that first came up with the $600 per week proposal had to say now in fairness he is a Democrat but this is what he believes he believes that unemployment is only going to get worse and that you can't have a healthy economy when there is a pandemic going around and he says that workers are not to blame that the people aren't lazy or looking for handouts he says people want to work but you don't really have a choice when you're in the middle of a pandemic and that without a $600 per week boost many people would have trouble paying their rent and many people would have a trouble financially surviving this pandemic and so he also said something that I thought was very interesting he said look the jobs that it might be looking good or improving but the fact is that even today the amount of people filing for unemployment is still two to three times the amount of people who file for unemployment in normal times so in other words even though the unemployment rate is falling more and more people are filing new claims Senator Michael Bennet came up right afterwards and said hey you know why don't we just pass Chuck Schumer's plan which ties the $600 boost to whatever the unemployment figures are in the state and that makes a good statement but I think the more powerful statement that he said which we could probably all agree with and he's a senator saying this he said there is nobody more incompetent than this Senate that was his quote and he as a senator now he was also defending the $600 boost he's also a Democrat but right now we know that Democrats and Republicans are in recess so we'll see what kind of updates we can expect over the next a few weeks now I know it's also fun to say that Congress is on vacation and they're not doing anything but the reality is oftentimes we feel like Congress isn't doing anything even when they're at Capitol Hill which is also sad to say but realistically there there is a good chance we're going to continue see this pre negotiating and planning being done outside of Capitol Hill which would actually be a good thing so hopefully hopefully we see some drafts of proposals from Senate Republicans that's where we want to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks we shall see now for the few of you who actually follow me on Twitter I really got a post more often there I did retweet a quote from an NBC article that was very very interesting and thank you Sara Eisen for putting that tweet together quote next week administration officials plan to promote administration officials by the way would be like the Trump administration plan to promote a new study they say shows promising results on therapeutics the official said they wouldn't describe the study in any future or further detail because they say it's disclosure would be quote market-moving therapeutics of course are treatments to try to keep deaths down and hospitalizations as short as possible for Kovan 19 and treatments for kovin have been seen as the potential for opening our economy in the fastest way possible think about it a treatment means we're basically able to open the economy instantaneously because realistically only people who get sick need treatments so you need far fewer of them whereas a vaccine can take years to reach everyone or at least everyone willing to take it and then for our country to actually experience some sort of herd immunity might literally take two years this is why therapeutics and treatments would actually be very dramatic for the stock market and really all of the stocks who have suffered from this pandemic notably the airlines the cruise lines the malls retail restaurants and you know what I've been bullish about a lot of these on hopes of a recovery but I will say I've reduced my portfolio to such shocks to under 10% mostly because I I've been betting on more of the big high-growth companies and the companies that have the potential for high growth I just finished reading the lemonade insurance SEC filing their first prospectus and I have to say I'm bullish on the company so stay tuned for more updates from me on that company with what I feel about it but in the meantime remember you can also buy these stocks using weeble use the link down below deposit $100 and you'll get two free stocks which you could sell those two free stocks and then just go buy whatever you want like lemonade or if you're crazy Dave & Buster's all right now let's keep moving on we'll see how the market ends up you know this week I expect obviously nothing but crazy volatility which is what we've had for the past few months now this is really interesting here I want to talk about a note on deaths now when I talk about deaths you might be thinking about life insurance which is linked down below as well I encourage you to check that out but know this is actually something more interesting and better it's good news which let me first put this disclaimer out this report was put together by the New York Times which I know that half of you are going to get pissed when I say the New York Times and I'm not shilling the New York Times to try to take sides in fact I think if you're on like the right or if you don't like the New York Times you actually might be surprised with what they're saying in this because they somewhat support what Donald Trump is saying the article first admitted that yeah we are testing a lot more and this obviously aligns with what Trump says when he says look we're testing more that's why we're seeing more cases in fact they said that they're conducting or we as a country are conducting about 600,000 tests per day tests per day excuse me compared with 100,000 tests per day back in April that's six x that is an incredibly amount of more tests now the New York Times did also say and warned that yes it is true that deaths can lag case counts but they said quote health care workers have also become more knowledgeable about promising treatments for example rolling patients onto their stomachs to ease breathing difficulties getting patients on blood thinners to avoid blood clotting and giving treatment cocktails like REM des Vere to reduce recovery and steroids at or Douce deaths reduce recovery like short and recovery timeframes this is a shift from the utter cluelessness when the pandemic first hit this is actually really insightful and it certainly gives me a lot more comfort that okay maybe we are getting this more under control even though when we look at case counts I kind of get chest palpitations and it makes me want to double check my life insurance and my Apple pay is still active for but anyway it is helpful to know now also that many many more cases are occurring in people within the age range of twenty to thirty to forty and really under fifty which is generally the group that seems to be less susceptible to severe consequences all don't knock on wood you never know there's still some people who get devastatingly sick who are in their 20s 30s and 40s so it's certainly something that I don't want so be careful nonetheless right hygiene social distancing and mass anyway if you need to remind your own wearing masks so you can watch a Jim Cramer on Mad Money that guy talks about masks like more than he talks about stocks now anyway maybe he's promoting masks stocks no sorry I'm being Jayden now the article the New York Times article ended by saying that the next two to three weeks will be very telling so keep an eye on the rate of deaths and although the articles seemed quite optimistic we still want to be careful going forward now in terms of the market this week folks I want to just leave you with one quote in that I've really followed for my entire life and it's been very beneficial I first started investing in stocks when I was 15 to 16 years old and I have to say I picked Apple stock which yes it did very well but here's the rule don't wait to buy buy and then wait usually I use this for real estate I say don't wait to buy real estate buy real estate or rate wait but this also applies to stocks don't worry about the middle term fluctuations or the short-term fluctuations if you're thinking about buying a company that you believe in you think the financials are strong or you think you want to hop into an index fund and you know you don't have to pick you're really just picking the index fund hop in get started by and then wait it's almost better to buy and then think because usually we think ourselves out of and generally you want to be on train America when it comes to stocks and investments at least over the long term if you're a short-term trader don't follow this rule anyway folks thank you so much for watching if you've appreciat might care anyway give of the channel as subscribed as well and we will see you next time thank you so much and until then
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