저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 주가는 2022년 약 42% 하락했으나 3나노 양산 성공 등 기술 진전이 긍정적. 2023년 1분기 고객 주문 조정으로 매출이 최소 15% 감소할 수 있어 단기 고통은 있지만 대수로운 적신호는 아니라고 봄. 7나노에서 5·3나노로의 이전 수요, 일본·독일·애리조나 공장 확대, 테슬라 4나노 칩 계약으로 장기 성장 전망. 11월 월매출은 전년비 50% 이상 증가. 본인은 TSMC 주주이나 반도체 전반 노출을 위해 ETF로 투자.
다듬은 글
welcome back to another episode today we're going to take a closer look at Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing and the recent updates the company has seen in the past few months this is a great video If one you are a semiconductor investor in general as TSM hits pretty much the overall semiconductor Market or true if you are directly a TSM holder so let's get started I do want to thank the Motley Fool For sponsoring this video and make sure to check out full.com Jose to get the top 10 stocks to buy right now all right so we can see TSM ended the year at 74.50 right now sitting at a market cap of 368 billion dollars and for the year of 2022 it was down roughly 42 percent so definitely a rough time for this semiconductor giant as there have been a lot of negativity and a lot of bad news dealing with the semiconductor market so first let's start off with some recent news on December 29th so a few days ago tsmc held their three nanometer volume product action ceremony so for those that are not familiar TSM develops Advanced notes right now the most advanced note that they are giving to their customers are selling to their customers is five nanometer prior to that with seven nanometer prior to that was 10 and they continued to update so now they are working on the three nanometer they did announce that hey the three nanometer technology has successfully entered volume production with good yield so that's great news right you want to continue to see that increasement or Improvement of Technology unfortunately unfortunately due to all these kind of macroeconomic headwinds over inventory correction a lot of tsmc customers are set to cut their orders in 2023.
its existing notes with the seven nanometer more important which they expect as much as 50 utilization reduction in the first quarter of 2023 and some investors might be worried about this and I want to say why yes it is a yellow flag but I wouldn't consider it much of a red flag for TSM they do mention in this article that we see here from tech power up that revenue is expected to fall by at least 15 in the first quarter of 2023 for tsmc so we have seen that the overall stock has gone down 42 last year the real question is how much of this is already priced in if they do see a revenue drop this upcoming quarter will the stock price drop even more or is this something that the market is already expecting let me know in the comments below and if you are enjoying the episode so far make sure to hit the thumbs up as it does help me grow my overall audience if you want to support a little bit more make sure to subscribe you see my Link at full.com Jose finally if you are a semiconductor investor you are going to enjoy my weekly podcast that's on the new channel the link is down on the pinned comment or you can click above we should be hitting 300 Subs really soon and I really really appreciate all the support so like I mentioned earlier based on these reports it says that the seven nanometer might see as much as a 50 percent utilization reduction in the first quarter of 2023 and let me just say why definitely a yellow flag but something I really wouldn't worry too too much about so here we can see this is the first quarter of 2020 in forms of Revenue and we can see before the seven nanometer and the 16 nanometer were roughly 50 percent of total revenue but as the company continues to develop you start to see less kind of dependency of older generation notes and you start to see more dependency on the newer generation though so here we have now the seven nanometer and the five nanometer represent over 50 percent of total revenue so what I do believe it's gonna happen obviously they're seeing a reduction in order so it's not going to be a one-to-one transaction but a lot of the seven nanometer people are gonna start either moving to five Nano nanometers or three nanometers so that kind of volume or revenue from certain segments is gonna start moving on obviously we I I do expect something similar to happen where some seven nanometer customers are gonna stay but other shotgun move to more advanced notes five nanometers or three nanometers so again not much of a bearish flag I think this is more short-term pain but at the end of the day numerous headwinds as we know this technology is used in every product from smartphones high performance Computing Internet of Things Automotive and others right so nothing too much to worry about we also have some other interesting news here coming in from TSM the company is looking to expand there are reports that tsmc is having a potential second plant being built in Japan so we we know TSM one of their biggest issues right now is their Geographic diversification too many plants in Taiwan and this is a risk that many customers are worried about so it does seem like TSM is trying to eliminate this risk they're opening more plants in Japan we saw that big plan in the United States there's also reports that they are opening up a new plant in Germany so again continue to increase that overall exposure each plant though is not always going to be for advanced node they do mention that this kind of Germany plant will be mainly used for the automobile industry which uses 28 to 22 nanometer again even though it's not Advanced it's also a great move because those kind of customers are always important we can see here in third quarter of 2020 um the 28 nanometers still roughly 10 of total revenue and this is that now cars are becoming smarter so that growth can probably see a nice Improvement next we have another kind of Automotive news we can see Tesla plans four nanometer chips from tsmc's Arizona Fab so even though the automobile industry like I mentioned before you normally see those bigger notes Tesla is a little bit more of a tech giant to some extent they want the most advanced obviously for their overall autonomous driving and they are planning to get those more advanced chips from tsmc in Arizona again we are seeing that increasement of long Tailwinds for tsmc and forms of potential customers I mean if we take a closer look in early December tsmc did give us their early November rep monthly Revenue numbers and it was up over 50 year over year again I this is a company that shares their monthly numbers I do want to see how things continue to change they are going to release their December numbers in the I want to say next week they usually release it around the 10th or the 12th so then that's when we're gonna see December numbers and I want to see if we're gonna see that year over year increase or decrease um I don't ex I I don't know what to expect there right we are seeing reports that we mentioned earlier at tsmc customers are seeing a bit of a loss but but I do expect that's going to be more coming in for the January month maybe not so much for the month of December so even if December comes out looking pretty good I don't believe we should kind of consider it a green flag for tsmc again even though we are seeing a lot of paint for this company I believe most of this is short-term pain not long-term lift final announcement I have here is tsmc analysis update for their Arizona plant like I mentioned earlier they are expanding internationally and they are expecting to build another fab here in Arizona and this is going to be roughly a 40 billion dollar investment so I do believe TSM is doing great by continuing to evolve and continue to expand and eliminating that geopolitical risk I think it's moving a lot faster than expected I am a tsmc shareholder but roughly if I want to enter into tsmc I do it through ETFs instead um not main reason right there I do believe it has a nice dividend but I like to get that exposure of the overall semiconductor market right now because I do believe there's huge huge growth potential here so I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode take care have a good day and see you next time
Comments 0