저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 H20 규제 이후 중국 시장 재진입 가능성을 언급하며, 화웨이 AI칩 경쟁력 보도가 향후 중국 재개방 촉매가 될 수 있다고 봄. TSMC는 2025 가이던스를 재확인(AI 매출 2배, 자본지출 380~420억달러 유지, 장기 매출총이익률 53% 이상 달성 가능)하고 고객 수요 변화는 아직 없다고 함. 다만 CoWoS 수급이 점차 균형으로 가고 있어 과잉공급 우려 가능성을 제기. ASML도 가이던스를 유지했으며, 중국 EUV 보도는 시기상조라고 평가.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back to another episode. Today I want to take a closer look at some recent earnings coming out from the semiconductor market that I think every Nvidia AI and just semiconductor investors should know. So, we're going to cover companies like Nvidia and some recent updates with the Chinese market.
Uh TSMC, which reported earnings today, some kind of comments that they made about Intel, and also ASML. I don't have the ticker here, but we're also going to look at ASML stock. The company did report earnings. Now, there were some interesting takes from earnings uh and we're going to discuss that.
Um first, a lot of bullish in my opinion for the AI market, but I do believe there might be maybe some showcases of over supply starting to creep in. I would love to hear your thoughts. I'm just going to share with what I'm reading, my overall ideas. would love to hear your thoughts on the comments below on if I'm overreading some of this stuff with over supply issues or there really is an issue.
first I want to start off with Nvidia. So, Nvidia has definitely taken that hit after the whole H20 ban that happened uh two days ago. It's it seems like it's forever ago, but I think it was pretty recently. We can see the stock was down roughly 3% today. Uh and in the past 5 days, this is a stock that's down roughly 10%.
Now, the first thing with Nvidia is there are reports that Nvidia went to China to meet with trade officials in Beijing. Now, this is pretty interesting, right? especially in a time when there's a lot and a lot of tension between the United States and China. At first, I was a little bit worried of maybe how the Trump administration would kind of see this and maybe kind of put even some more targets against Nvidia and kind of their Chinese market.
But there were, if you kind of go and put Trump Jensen Juan on Google, there is a pretty cool uh pretty short video from Forbes breaking news. And Trump pretty much respond responds that he's great friends with Jensen Hang and that he's not worried about anything. Pretty much Nvidia just needs to handle some business um in in China obviously with the recent regulations.
Now China within what is reportedly said is that uh Nvidia is going to work obviously with the legal issues and US regulatory. It's never going to try to mess with that and it seems like it still wants to be part of the Chinese market. Uh so I am curious if maybe Nvidia is going to try to make a weaker chip than the H20.
Um especially for the Blackwell platform, right? It's most likely going to be for the Blackwell platform to be able to serve this customer. Now in the future there are reports and if we kind of pull up with semi analysis semi analysis is a really really strong um semiconductor analyst group in my opinion and in their most recent earn uh analysis that they talked about they talked about Huawei and AI chip and AI infrastructure that this company is playing and they pretty much kind of mentioned if you look at certain things Huawei is actually producing a very competitive chip to GB200.
Um, one of the things is though it is very very power hungry and it wouldn't work in other parts of the world but it would work in China who has a lot and lots of power capacity. Right? One of the things that they mentioned is power limitations is pretty strong is pretty high here in the United States.
Right? So it is very important for AI chips to continue to improve in forms of energy efficiency. They mentioned one of the strengths in China is they have a lots and a lot of power capacity. So you can kind of what I would say maybe kind of like um try to put the biggest chip no matter the power limitations and they're actually able to connect it really well with some great infrastructure.
The reason I bring this up is I think because if companies like Nvidia is able to go to the government say, "Hey, look, Chinese players are already developing some great products without us and and and our products are not even that competitive with these kinds of restrictions, what's the difference or what's the point of kind of limiting us?" Um, maybe right now it's kind of like a trade issue, but if these reports by semi analysis are true that Huawei does have a very competitive product to Nvidia's GB200 and VL72, then I could see this as in the future the AI market becoming another kind of the the Chinese market reopening up for Nvidia.
And this could be a major catalyst. Again, I don't know if that would ever happen, but something to keep in mind that right before it was Nvidia, you can't produce the best chips over there in China because or not produce, send over the best chips over there to China because it's a national security risk.
But is that risk still there when they already have kind of like a competitive play in that industry? Again, take it with a grain of salt. I do respect semi analysis. I do believe they have a lot of great um research uh points um and they have a great track record from what I've read in in the past year.
Uh so something to consider, but it is I I want to say the mark this one's going to be a really tricky market. Just wanted to show all the thoughts there. Also, before we go any further, if you want to read my earnings digest on ASML and TSMC, make sure to check out what the chiphapped.com. It is my free daily semiconductor newsletter.
Yesterday I talked about ASML. There is a free version there. Today I am going to talk about TSMC. So make sure to check out the free daily semiconductor newsletter. What thechip.com. Now I want to jump into earnings and TSMC and ASML both reported earnings. Now on the top level overview, what I really liked is both these companies still provided guidance for the year which is something that I thought wasn't really going to happen.
and we're going to look at that. But both of them provided guidance. They mentioned obviously uncertainties with tariffs can impact gross margins. Uh so for example, ASML gave like a wider margin. I think about like one extra point each direction than they normally do. Um not the worst thing, but still they gave guidance.
I I was pretty much certain that a lot of companies were going to say, "Hey, look, we're not going to give guidance due to all these tariffs uncertainty." Um, but both TSMC and ASML gave guidance and they still either reiterated their recent uh their previous guidance. Uh, and we're going to see TSMC still expects at least 20% year-over-year growth and ASML still believes this year and next year is going to be a growth year.
So, that gives me some, I guess, bullish sentiment that there is a light at the end of the tunnel that even with these tariffs, they still expect to do really well in business and margins could take a hit, but it's still too early to tell. Now I if we look at this the first thing that I want to talk about is TSMC.
So if you're a TSMC investor this is super important. If you're a semiconductor investor this is going to be super important. So TSMC is really expanding their global manufacturing plants in the United States especially and they believe in the long-term gross margins of 53% and higher is still very very much achievable.
They also did reiterate their 2025 capital budget. um capex which was around 38 to 42 billion as they continue to invest in customer growth. So first this is very bullish for just the semiconductor industry. TSMC is pretty much saying that we're going to continue to spend that almost $40 billion in capital expenditure this year because we still see strong growth for the semiconductor space.
Now, they mentioned that their 2025 capex also includes a small amount related to recently announced additional $100 billion investment plan to expand their capacity in Arizona. For those not familiar, TSMC, like they mentioned, kind of expanded that. But most of their plans that they expanded are later on through the phase.
So, you wouldn't see much of that capex right at the beginning of 2025. Maybe we might see that in 2026 and maybe more in 2027 when those plans start to build. Right now this company is already expanding in the United States. So it's focused on there first. Now one thing that they mentioned though is previously margin dilution from overseas plants were going to be around 2 to 3%.
But now in a multiple year time they mentioned over the next five years once these plants start to become more mature and once they start to really see some impact there they believe that the actual margin hit will be about 3 to 4%. Uh so obviously you can see a little bit more dilutions in margins for TSMC.
Regardless they do expect 53% and higher is still very much achievable. Now, this is the great thing. If you're a semiconductor investor, if you're an AI investor, they talk about recent tariffs and they mentioned, look, there are uncertainties and risk from potential tariffs impact. However, they have not seen any changes in customer behavior so far.
Now, this is one that I thought would actually be a little bit different. Remember TSMC, they built chips. These chips aren't used right away. These are chips that are going to be used 2 3/4 from now when they finally get put in products and all that. So if companies were expecting a bit of a slowdown, I would have expected TSMC to kind of see that effect firsthand because those are the ones that are working on future products.
I hope that makes sense, right? But they're saying they're not seeing any changes in customer behavior just yet. And they continue to expect their fullear 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid20% in US term. They might get a better picture in the next few months and they'll continue to obviously monitor this but right now market is still pretty pretty strong.
Now in forms of AI demand which is if you're an Nvidia investor you want to listen to this. They continue to observe robust AI related demand for their customers throughout 2025. And they reaffirmed that their AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. And based on kind of strong demand, they're also working hard to double their co-op's capacity uh to support their needs.
More importantly, this is what got me really excited. Based on their planning framework, they are confident that their revenue growth from AI accelerators will approach a mid40% compounded annual growth rate for the next 5-year period starting from 2024. Uh so overall some pretty pretty strong numbers there.
Now the construction they talk a little bit of kind of the construction of their fabs. Um I I'll share some right now. So their construction of their second fab in Arizona will use 3 nanometer technology and they're speeding up volume production scheduled. U they're speeding this up because of the the strong demand that they're seeing from AI related products.
The third and fourth fab will be the N2 and A16 node. Uh and they are expecting to receive permits to do that later this year. Then they have their sixth and fifth fab which will be using more advanced technology. But right now TSMC is very very much intent in building in the United States. Now TSMC and this is for you Intel shareholders.
I know some Intel shareholders were probably a little bit happy. Um but they mentioned that TSMC is not engaged in any discussions with other companies regarding any joint venture technology licensing or technology transfer and sharing. So pretty much Intel rumors are rumors. Let's just leave it at that and hopefully we don't hear it again.
Now this is where I talked a little bit about how is there a overupp issue happening already? Um, and is this something that investors should really really keep a closer eye on? This is obviously maybe a bearish point and if you're a Nvidia investor, if you are an AI investor like myself, it's something you don't want to really think about, but is this an early indication?
And let me see what um and let me let me hear your thoughts. Tell me if I'm overthinking it. So there was a question to see if there's still exceeding supply for co-ass 2026. And this is the thing, right? At least back then there was such a huge demand that supply wasn't even catching up. There was no balance between supply and demand.
The CEO mentions that they're working very hard to make sure that they don't have this kind of demand is much much higher than capacity. We're working very hard and I believe that it will be more balanced next year. Now, is this maybe that demand has slowed down a little bit or has TSMC seen a huge improvement in capacity that they're making the balance a little bit better?
Again, it we don't we can't really tell which of those is it. Is it a mixture of the two? Has demand kind of pulled down a little bit even though it's still draw strong. Is it a little bit weaker than it was? or is TSMC just that good at pulling that capacity? Again, I don't want to be that Debbie Downer, but I think it's crucial for us to hear things like this.
Then, um here we can see uh the CEO mentioned Brett 3 months ago. Now, I can tell you that 3 months ago we are we just cannot supply enough wafers to our customers. And now it's a little bit balanced, but still the demand is very strong. And you're right, other than China, the demand is still very strong, especially in the United States.
And so, we're confident that we're going to double our AI revenue this year. So, again, still not the complete bearish take. And usually, I believe TSMC is a little bit more honest than than than what I'm thinking about right now. But to hear that's a little bit more balanced is showing me that, hey, look, that that that demand and supply is getting like this.
And now the risk of maybe supply getting higher than demand becomes a little bit higher because you don't have that buffer. So I still don't know how to think about this. This is just my overall thoughts after reading the first transcript. Um but would love to hear your comments. Am I overthinking it?
Again, CEO chairman does tell us though that there's still very strong demand especially in the United States for AI related products. This company at the same time is still is still building an Arizona plant. It's speeding up its second Arizona plant. It's still focusing on trying to build their third and fourth.
So if it's doing all that right, there has to be capa demand just ramping up like crazy. Um but but but again I just wanted to bring it up and see what the people were thinking. Now when it comes to ASML, ASML also um shared a few points. I I think first is kind of on AI demand. They mentioned that on the AI demand.
I think like the comments that Kristoff made um is in general we hear from customers both on logic side and the memory side that they still see you know strong demand there. So ASML maybe a little bit much higher in the supply chain that really doesn't see too much the consumer pressure. They do hear from the kind of manufacturer players but right now they're still hearing demand is pretty strong.
I feel like if there was a shift in demand, maybe ASML is one of the last two here. I think TSMC is like the main main point of contact. Now, there was another kind of question. There are reports that in China EUV was catching up and that China was creating a competitive mode to uh a competitive product to ASML's machine.
Uh let's see. ASML stock is up about 1% today, but it was it's down about f um 3% in the past 5 days. Now analysts were wondering should is this something that we should be worried about and they mentioned they don't think so. They say that there is not enough proof that there is a serious product on the way.
So I think we're still on the same view that will take many many years for China to be able to make an EUV machine. And again you should expect some more news because I think that's just what you do when you want to show products. So this is more what they consider a research news more than a product news.
So these are the recent updates impacting the semiconductor market. I think right now the main story is there's still very much strong demand. TSMC still expects the semiconductor market to see strong demand and that's why they're building fabs. Now the question that I had was is demand is supply catching up too fast to demand right now?
Are we expecting this imbalance to last a little bit longer? Maybe I was and maybe that's why I'm kind of double thinking it. But love to hear your overall thoughts. The second thing is I am actually pretty happy that these companies reiterated guidance and instead of saying look we don't know they just say there's some uncertainty but right now they haven't really seen much changes. So I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. Take care. Have a good day.
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