저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
딥시크(DeepSeek)가 저비용으로 경쟁력 있는 LLM을 만들었다는 소식에 엔비디아가 급락했다. 화자는 AI 칩 수요 감소 우려가 과도하다고 보며, 딥시크가 사실이면 소비자 AI 확산으로 TSMC·ASML 등 파운드리·장비주에 오히려 긍정적이라고 주장한다. TSMC(약 -13%)와 ASML을 가장 매력적인 매수 후보로 꼽고, 마이크론·브로드컴·마벨은 조건부로 본다. 엔비디아 단기 주가는 몇 주간 비이성적일 것으로 예상한다.
다듬은 글
today was a crazy day for the semiconductor Market as we had Nvidia down over 177% on this overall deep seek news and how it can kind of impact the overall AI market now I did a video on deep seek and Nvidia earlier this morning and I will probably do one later today or early tomorrow but on today's episode I actually want to take a closer look at some other semiconductor stocks that also took a huge hit today and in my opinion can actually be great buying opportunities now the reason I believe they are great buying opportunities is because these are companies that are bullish for NVIDIA are bullish because of Nvidia if deep seek is false but they can also be bullish if these deep seek issues uh are actually true um and there's this huge huge efficiency in AI Solutions so the five companies I'm going to take a closer look at our asml tsmc Micron Technology broadcom and Marvel too long don't watch the two that I believe are the most attractive right now are asml the equipment space and tsmc the other ones have a few caveats that I'll explain a little bit in today's episode but I just kind of want to give you the the the main topic in the first intro now if you want to hear my overall thoughts on everything else make sure to stay tuned but first ull.com Jose and ed.com like I mentioned I've done plenty of videos of Nvidia today yesterday and in the past so I will be covering Nvidia a little bit later um but just for those that are curious no I'm not in but I believe the market is going to be irrational with the stock price for the next few days even for the next few weeks until maybe we even get earnings so stock prices can continue to be irrational in my opinion and that's okay again that's not the point of today's episode but I know a lot of people watch me for my Nvidia thoughts so just wanted to give that out before we look at the other companies now the other companies that I mentioned we're going to start off with asml actually I want to start off with tsmc so these overall thought process right now is the top overview is deep seek was able to create large language models competitive to other players and in certain instances maybe even better with a lot cheaper investments in AI chips so in theory what the market is seeing is because they're able to do it cheaper either we're going to see a huge decrease and and cheaper because of less computational power needed you're going to need less AI chips for this process right that's the main bearish thesis right now in the quick 101 easier more efficient AI requires less chips which require less AI chips and less revenue for companies like Nvidia and anybody else that can benefit and here we're with tsmc so tsmc was down roughly 133% today and we can see it's at levels last SE and this is the thing that's also going to be pretty crazy these are levels that we probably just saw a few months ago I mean the first time we kind of saw these levels of 190s was around July of 2024 and then we saw them again in the late half of 2024 but right now 192 so many people are saying hey look since Nvidia is going to need less chips than tsmc is going to do bad but on today's episode I actually want to take a closer look at the case if deep seek is telling the truth right because for all these companies we already have that the bullish thesis is NVIDIA doing well and is going to drive demand for all these other markets or the AI Market is growing and all these other players can benefit as well but what if deep seek is true if deep seek is true I also still think tsmc can benefit the reason being is Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing the volume of their manufacturing is mainly in the consumer space and the consumer Market is expected to continue to grow now imagine in this world where deep seek is actually pretty good and it is true and we're kind of seeing AI innovation at such cheap prices that's going to allow AI solutions to be added to all types of applications going to be added to phones to um and anything any type of consumer product and that's going to drive consumers to go out there and expand their new technology into the AI space so if deep seek is true I think it's going to make Consumer Electronic AI or consumer AI a lot cheaper and it's going to help accelerate accelerate the use cases of Solutions right because we hear of aipc right and aipc is what can I do with aipc um maybe I can kind of shift my background a little bit maybe I can do eye correction but what if the next aipc because of the deep seek innovation has a lot more software applications has a lot more AI use cases that I can't think of right now because they haven't been created yet but because of the Innovation and the efficiency of deep seek they get created at a faster rate so for me it's if deep seek is true then we're going to see a boom in AI consumer electronics which at the end of the day is going to mean a lot more chips in the consumer space so it's going to be pretty pretty strong for companies like tsmc so I think the sell off for tsmc is pretty pretty irrational now asml is another one that I personally think is pretty irrational especially since asml doesn't really benefit Too Much from the AI space right asml delivers equipment needed for the manufacturing of chips now these chips are used mainly for the um the companies that buy them like tsmc would only buy asml when they need more production lines and when they want to see when they see an increase in demand usually the volume that drives that is again the consumer market so asml I don't think it's going to lose anything with if if we don't see that many AI chips being built in forms of data center but I believe you're going to see more data more AI chips being built into the consumer space so I would say asml is one of those stocks that can be bullish for both if deep seek isn't true and Nvidia continues to dominate and continues to sell a lot of AI chips or or if deep seek is telling the truth and Nvidia might see a reduction in AI chip sales and you get you get to see kind of an efficiency in AI models again I'm not saying it is true but these are stocks that I believe can benefit if either scenario happens now the third stock we're going to take a closer look at is Micron Technology right and this is where it starts to get iffy to me the first two that I would say are no-brainers and remember there's nothing there's never a no-brainer in the stock market but the closest no-brainer to me would be tsmc asml and here in asml I would actually add any semiconductor equipment player in this space right any equipment player that took a hit right now I think I would add to this list as well now Micron Technology this one's a bit interesting so if Micron Technology right now is benefiting a lot from hbm so if you see a decrease in AI chips then you might see a you're going to see a decrease in theory of HPM volumes right so that's a hit for them but some of the benefit is maybe you might see a decrease in Nvidia chips but but I do believe that big Tech players if these efficiencies are still true you're going to see these big Tech players really continue to develop their as6 Solutions which will need hbm technology and again if we are going into this AI efficiency is going now into the mass consumer space you're still going to need a lot of compute for inference and Micron Technology would be a player there now the bearish case like I mentioned was the hbm this is is where it gets a little iffy now the next two are ones that obviously are are losing right now because if you need less AI chips you might also need less custom AI chips and those two players that benefit here are broadcom and marll so both are down brockham is down roughly 1% marll was down roughly 19% now like I mentioned earlier with Micron if if efficiency is getting better maybe this will red reduce the dependency of your general AI accelerators like Nvidia gpus and you can kind of see a growth in custom Asic Solutions as you really only need them maybe for certain workloads so the four the five stocks that I believe are sitting at somewhat attractive or completely overreactions right now are tsmc asml Micron Technology Brom and marll to me again the first two the first two are almost no-brainers micron is more of like and somewhere in the middle brhom and marll I think there's a lot of if and buts um but I believe if the market even if deep seek is true these two players can still potentially benefit out of there so I hope you guys enjoyed today's quick episode I just want to kind of Share My overall thoughts on some players that could benefit in in both scenarios and I hope it kind of makes sense
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