저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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TSMC 공장 인근 대만 지진 영향은 단기 노이즈로 보며 장기 투자자는 우려 불필요. Nvidia의 CoWoS 주문 축소설은 Hopper(CoWoS-S)에서 Blackwell(CoWoS-L)로 수요가 이동하는 것으로 해석하며 실질 악재 아님. TSMC 2025년 설비투자 대폭 증가로 Nvidia 2025년 매출 성장 가능성을 긍정적으로 봄. 트럼프 행정부 첫 거래일 반도체 관련 행정명령(AI 확산 규칙 취소 가능성)을 주목.
다듬은 글
if you own Nvidia stock or tsmc stock today's episode is going to be mainly for you we're going to take a closer look at some recent updates impacting tsmc and more specifically also impacting Nvidia now too long don't watch if you have other things to do the first topic we're going to take a closer look at is there was a earthquake in Taiwan which is creating some form of which could create some form of impact in tsmc's manufacturing plants overall nothing too crazy at the moment but things can change from here on out so something to keep an eye out the second thing is there were reports that Nvidia was going to cancel some of their coan's Advanced packaging orders and tsmc was going to loose out on orders like that this is more rumors and I would say don't pay attention to this rumors we're going to take a closer look at what's really happening but too long don't watch in my opinion anything here that we're going to discuss today could create maybe some short-term price volatility in the longterm as an investor of either Nvidia or tsmc these two topics shouldn't be something that affects long-term investors but let's take a closer look in today's episode if you want to hear my overall thoughts and today's email was probably one of my favorites in the while so the link is down below I want to thank the m fo the first thing is tomorrow depending when you're watching it is going to be the first trading day with President Trump again so a lot are expecting a nice bullish Trend in the overall Tech Market what I'm more kind of curious about is we do know that in these first few days going to see the Trump Administration and Trump himself make some form of executive orders we're we're kind of seeing them already come out I'm going to be curious to see if he does anything that could impact the semiconductor Market especially as just few days before Biden leaving we kind of got that AI diffusion rule so I'm going to see if we get any changes to that right away because I believe if that is something that's going to get cancelled is going to get cancelled with within the next few days if it does then it is something that I believe we're going to have to have something that's going to stay in the market for a while so that's going to be the first thing I am going to be super curious about now kind of talking about the main topics I discussed in the intro earlier today unfortunately Taiwan was hit with an earthquake now I'm obviously this channel is more focused about the investment Community but obviously I hope the the country is doing well I hope people people are safe and everything's going okay in the investing World it does seem like taiwan's manufacturing plants have shut down at the moment and usually this is the case right this is not the first earthquake that we've heard happen in Taiwan I believe we've we've seen a few in this past um in the in these past 12 months we've seen some so we kind of already know how this kind of goes what ends up happening is usually for safety of personnel Taiwan usually evacuates the factories um and then send Engineers to make sure that the equipment is all working properly and that can sometimes take a few hours to maybe sometimes a few days depending on how things how bad things are most of the time things like this are things that might create a lot of negativity in the short term you might start to see Twitter post uhoh this is going to hurt the supply chain for the AI chip Market uhoh you better be careful for your stocks I just want to be the other voice that says hey look this is going to if it does create anything it will most likely be short-term noise as a long-term investor this is not something I would be worried about based on the reports that I'm reading right now it seems like there's not going to be any major changes to the supply chain line there weren't any major equipments destroyed but we'll probably hear more from tsmc in the upcoming hours as they usually do kind of report or share some information about the earthquake and their equipment um but overall right now I'm not expecting it and I just want to say be careful if there's any Bearer or doomsayers coming out in some of the social platforms that you might be in now the second thing I wanted to talk about is there are reports that tsmc is building two more coas facilities the bunking order Cut rumors so first I want to talk a little bit more about the order Cut rumors so a few days ago there was rumors that that there were other players that were reducing their coas orders and then we also saw reports that Nvidia was reducing their coas orders as well and for those that are not familiar these coas is a form of advanced packaging that is used to build AI chips so the market was a little bit fearful hey does this mean that nvidia's demand might be slowing that AI chip demand is slowing during their most recent earnings tsmc mentions that hey look right now they are not seeing anything like that they still can't even keep up with the overall demand and that's where they're going to continue to invest in advanced packaging Solutions and advanced packaging facilities uh the other thing is we heard from Nvidia CEO he was actually at a few he's actually in Taiwan I believe at the moment um making some rounds with some Taiwanese Executives and there was a question that came out hey Nvidia are you reducing your orders of coas and there's always some truth to the rumors and there's always some truth to the reports but it's never as simple as it seems so right now coas there's two there's a few three main types of coas there's coas s there's coas L and I actually forget the third one but coas s is the one that's mainly used on the hopper architecture now with the Blackwell architecture you're actually using coas l so there is true that Nvidia is actually reducing its orders on kaas as the hopper architecture eventually will start to go down and focusing those capacity in coas L instead as the blackw platform ramps up right so there was some truth that these orders were slowing down but at the end of the day it's not like anything negative it doesn't impact the chip demand or anything it doesn't impact tsmc because just that orders are going from one segment to another um both pretty much use the same technology it's just pretty much the sizing that's different uh so overall there was some truth to the rumors but it wasn't as negative as it seemed it was more of just shifting in certain Technologies because Hopper was using coas S where Blackwell is going to be using coas L mainly uh so nothing to be worried about and this is why I believe it's crucial that before making any decisions based on rumors is important to understand the type of Technology that's used in the Manu manufacturing of certain chips and understanding how tsmc has talked about kind of the demand for advanced packaging in his in previous earnings calls so um overall those were rumors and we can see that tsmc and Nvidia are definitely not going to be losing out any orders in advanced packaging and tsmc we heard that they're going to increase their capital expenditure dramatically in 2025 some of the money is going to be spent on Advanced packaging which is the major bottle NE for AI chips so right now based on tsmc's earnings that just came out about a week ago it is easy to see how 2025 is going to be another growth year for NVIDIA Revenue so right now I really wouldn't be too worried or or I have too many bearish cases for this year for NVIDIA if you have any doubts I definitely would recommend taking a closer look at my previous tsmc's video where I discuss what they mentioned about the AI demand about Advanced packaging about where they see this growth happening in the future so I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode
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