저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 렌보 노트북 AI칩 루머와 삼성 HBM4 가속, OpenAI 태스크 기능 등 AI 생태계 확장을 긍정적으로 평가하며 데이터센터 중심 성장을 강조. AMD는 루프캐피털 목표가 175 상향 소식을 언급했으나 2028년 데이터센터 GPU 점유율 20% 전망은 비현실적이라고 회의적. 온토는 수주 소식과 PE 25.9배 기준 매수 관심 표명, TSMC는 애리조나 4nm 생산이 곧바로 AI칩 증량을 의미하진 않으며 첨단 패키징이 병목이라고 지적.
다듬은 글
today we're going to take a closer look at a nice amount of semiconductor news impacting the overall space we're going to look at Nvidia AMD onto ntsmc now I know your time is valuable and I'm not going to try to hold you hostage so I'm going to put the most popular stocks at the beginning we're going to start off with Nvidia and then we're going to wake work our way down so I hope you guys enjoy the content I definitely would enjoy for you to stay for the full episode but if you can check out my free daily newsletter whatthe chipa happened.com and check out my earnings ebook that just got announced again as this is the new quarterly earnings we start off with Nvidia so Nvidia today was down roughly 1% % and after hours the stock seems to be down another.
3% now Nvidia we've talked about it we've done a few episodes in the past few days has seen a few negative sentiments towards the stock for example we had kind of those overheating issues which I kind of mentioned I'm not worried about we also had kind of those regulation issues that have come out but we can see that the market is not really pricing that at the moment now on today's episode I want to take a closer look at a a few things that some the viewers have sent me via X or via comments here on YouTube and the first one is this this report that invidious Cutting Edge aipc system on chip debutes in lenovo's nextg laptop featuring N1 naming scheme which is going to be a Blackwell X um a Blackwell and an arm architecture and it's going to be announced during computex 2025 now for those that are not familiar first let's back up computex 2025 usually happens in June or July and or or or during the summer of 2025 and here it seems like Lenovo is mainly known for gaming laptops and kind of the consumer space so it seems like right now Nvidia is expected to announce a consumer CPU and GPU partnership with mediatech very similar to how it did with the project digits so many people might say hey loose this might be the same thing as project digits and I would say it it won't I I don't think that's the case because Lenovo from these rumors again these are just rumors and first just let me explain the rumors and then Share My overall thoughts on what it can mean for the overall stock I think on the rumors it's going to be more of something for the consumer space it's going to be something in the high end to your product digits is more for kind of your AI Developers for your engineers for your um for your AI companies that need some form of AI performance or supercomputer on your desk and that's what the project digits is I believe this Lenovo is going to be like I mentioned more into the consumer bace I'm not sure if I'm excited about this or not obviously entering the consumer Market is pretty interesting but I would only really be happy if this is a market where they enter where it's going to be mainly something that is going to be high margin so it's going to be the expensive laptops the consumer laptops the content creator laptops the streamer laptops right the laptops that tend to have higher margins because they tend to be a stronger and more premium performance product so if they enter that obviously it could be beneficial for the stock at the end of the day though right now this is going to be mainly just uh AI market for NVIDIA in forms of data sensors so it is good that they're entering in other products but I think at the end of the day investors are still only going to want to care about the data center space now the other good thing about this is if they enter in this kind of consumer CPU and GPU product it can also open up the market for other opportunities as the AI technology continues to evolve in the in the consumer space right maybe eventually if we start to get more handheld devices maybe mediate Tech and Nvidia can work on something together if we start to go who who knows it it opens up in my opinion optionality and that's a great thing right it opens up optionality for NVIDIA to do many more solutions in the consumer space but if they do the consumer Market tends to be very very um competitive so I would only want them to do something that tends to have high margins and be in the premium price point right because I do believe that's where Nvidia has the strongest strength and will be able to compete the most uh so pretty cool like I mentioned for NVIDIA though I think the main excitement is going to continue to be in AI data centers now for focusing here on Nvidia still there are reports that Samsung has reportedly sped up its hbm 4 by 6 months as Nvidia plans to re release Reuben which is in quarter three of this year I think that's super super early right we're getting Blackwell here in this quarter right now we're getting um we're expected to get Blackwell Ultra about I want say 6 months from now and that's already ahead of schedule and now they're saying that Reuben might actually come out during the same time as well there might be some truth to this maybe Ruben might be kind of getting made a lot earlier than expected but I it I don't think Nvidia is really moving that fast unless something else is happening um but it is pretty interesting to see that Nvidia is forcing its hbm players to continue to innovate at rapid levels Samsung hasn't really done so well right now but based on these reports it also seems that Nvidia is forcing companies like SK hyx to speed up the delivery of hbm for now the next thing is not necessarily an Nvidia news but I think it actually showcases where Nvidia could be heading one of my the if you are an investor of Nvidia you have to believe that AI is innovating at rapid levels and for NVIDIA to continue to win en uh AI needs to continue to innovate at rapid levels as well open AI today is rolling out beta beta versions of task which is a new way to ask chat GPT to do things for you at a future time whether it's a onetime reminder or reoccurring actions tell chat GPT what you need and when and it will automatically take care of it now I think this is kind of the early Innings of AI agents and it's a little bit more than just your typical um it's just uh more than just your typical calendar right you can kind of tell it to do certain things when you get alerted as well where you can read something and the list goes on and on so I think this is pretty exciting it can kind of show cases where we're going to get out eventually I mean one thing for example as a semiconductor investor I can make a daily task where hey look every day at this hour tell me some of the biggest news impacting Nvidia because in the next few uh in the next few hours I will be doing a YouTube video about it right so I can already see once it starts to get better and better how I can use it to improve my daily life and increase and improve my efficiency right so I think this is pretty interesting and investors while it's not necessarily directly correlated with Nvidia we need to make sure that the AI Market continues continues to evolve so that's all I have for NVIDIA right now now let's try to shoot some of the other topics I have in hand first is AMD so AMD was down roughly 1% today the reason I'm talking about AMD is today we did have reports that loop capital Did initiate a buy rating on AMD with a price target of 175 citing potential growth in accelerated Computing and market share gains into data centor and PC segments so I I mean I talked about it in the past I believe AMD is very attractive right now I don't believe it's going to be the next Nvidia and I continue to say this Nvidia is going to dominate this base dramatically and it's going to be my favorite winner and some of you guys might be wondering Jose why are you investing in AMD if you are just um if you are so bullish on Nvidia at the end of the day I can't really have Nvidia is already over 20 something 25% it's over a quarter of my portfolio it's very hard for me right and every investor has their own risk tolerance I know there are some investors I believe Matt Matt shout out if you're you're watching I think Matt mentions that he has 100% of his investments in Nvidia that is pretty impressive I don't think there's necessarily anything bad with it but every investor has their own preference and risk allocation I think I'm happy with over 25% between 25 to 30% I'm happy with that results a quarter or a third of my portfolio can be easily influxed by Nvidia but I don't mind having other companies as well and that's why I do enjoy AMD I believe there's various growth opportunities outside of the AI space for AMD um it does seem low I I I'm going to even though I'm bullish I am also realistic um a luk capital they do emphasize that they like the risk and reward for the shares right now and I think that is true I want to agree with that there is truth that I think risk to reward probability for AMD is very very attractive now loop capital also projects that AMD could capture 20% of data center GPU Market by 2018 by 2028 potentially driving 50 to 60 billion in Revenue by fiscal year of 2028 now this is where I'm going to put my Jose realistic cap I don't think AMD is going to get 20% of the data center GPU Market anytime soon especially not by 2028 which is only 3 years away right I mean a perfect example is Intel even in Intel it took them over seven eight years to really get about 30% of the market share and that's that Intel wasn't really innovating at rapid levels now you're telling me that you expect them to do 20% in 3 years versus a competitor that's dominating in this space that is a reason where and I think many people you can be bullish in AMD and each of them and each reason to be bullish could be different from mine right I don't believe AMD is going to be that market share winner in the GPU Market I believe they can accelerate in other Industries though so well I do agree that this is a great risk to reward ratio for AMD which loop capital mentions the reason to be bullish for AMD I think they're a little bit too over excited and I would definitely tell him to tone it down a bit now the next topic I want to take a closer look at is onto so onto is a semiconductor equipment player $10 billion market cap what they do is they create Metrology so kind of an inspection of the manufacturing process which is very crucial especially with things like Advanced packaging and espe in what we're seeing AI chips and in the memory Market well today on uh January 14th onto announced that they had a nice order for one of their new products from a leading Dr manufacturer for Metrology product Suite they also expect that this Market that they're growing into can grow dramatically in the upcoming year so pretty bullish for onto I personally own onto and I am bullish in the company PE ratio forward one year is about 25.9 I think um the stock the semiconductor equipment Market gives us buying opportunities this stock was just at 160 a few months a few days ago and just in these last few days the stock has gone up a nice amount I think this is right now time to be patient and if one wants to enter it onto is dollar cost average but definitely add it onto your watch list now the final topic I want to take a closer look at is TSM Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing so TSM is is reportedly uh the US Commerce Secretary Rondo stated that tsmc has started the production of their advanced 4 nanometer chips in Arizona and that apple is nearing the final stages of verifying its first made in America chips from this plant that's pretty interesting and some people might be saying hey Jose isn't this great news for NVIDIA as that means they can make more and more AI chips I just want to remind investors that for NVIDIA the problem is not the chip wafers that get or or the actual chips that get made here in these plants is the advanced packaging which is where we have the supply constraint so however we can see from this report even chips made in the United States will still be sent to Taiwan for advanced packaging until tsmc partners with amcore partner amcore finishes building its packaging plant in the United States so this is obviously great news but it's not necessarily going to mean more AI chips for the data center Market from Nvidia what we really need from tsmc is more advanced packaging plans and that is happening right now they're coming online more are going into construction and this is going to obviously be a discussion during their upcoming earnings so overall pretty bullish and it's just kind of nice to see chips being manufactured Advanced chips being manufactured back here in the United States now those are all the topics I have for today's episode on the semiconductor review if you have any topics you want me to discuss further let me know in the comments below take care have a good day and see you next time
Comments 0