저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체주 하락의 원인으로 미국 고용지표 호조에 따른 금리인하 기대 약화와 바이든 행정부의 AI칩 수출규제 우려를 꼽음. 다만 장기적으로는 현금흐름·저부채·성장성 중시 입장. 반면 TSMC 12월 매출 전월비 약 1%, 전년비 57.8% 증가로 반도체 성장 지속과 소비자 전자제품 수요 개선 기대를 제시. 마이크론 매출 전망도 긍정적으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks like AMD, Intel, and even Broadcom fell significantly today. So in today's episode, I want to take a closer look at two bearish factors affecting the semiconductor industry on Friday, and one bullish factor that I think many investors may have overlooked. So, let's begin.
But if you're in a hurry, look no further if you have other things to do. First, about two bearish factors affecting the semiconductor market. The first is general macroeconomic data , which creates significant volatility in the stock market. Second, there is increasing discussion about the restrictions that the Biden administration plans to impose before the change of power.
And the only positive factor is that TSMC just released its December figures, and they significantly exceeded expectations. If you want to learn more, watch the video below, where I give my general thoughts and provide more details about what happened. And if not, be sure to like, subscribe to the channel, check out the pinned comment with a special offer at fool.com/hose, and sign up for .
I want to thank The Motley Fool for sponsoring this video and invite you to visit fool.com/hose to learn about the 10 best stocks to buy now. This link will take you to . So, as I mentioned, a lot of semiconductor stocks fell today. We see that Nvidia fell by about 3%, AMD by about 4.7%. AMD shares received another downgrade today, causing them to fall a little more than others.
Intel fell by about 3.6%, and Broadcom by about 2.8%. Okay, let's start with macroeconomics. Monthly reports on the state of the labor market were released today. And, unfortunately for the market, but fortunately for the economy, they turned out to be better than expected. And because the results turned out to be better than expected, Wall Street and investors now believe that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates.
There have even been discussions in certain banks that the issue is no longer about lowering rates, but about when rates will start to rise again. Of course, such changes in macroeconomics create significant volatility in the entire market, right? And this is something that I, as an investor, personally don't pay much attention to, because anything can happen.
Ultimately, the only thing I care about is: do the companies I invest in have strong cash flows, do they have low debt levels, and do they have growth opportunities? And usually none of this makes me worry too much about macroeconomics in the long term . Of course, these things can affect the company in the short term, but in the long term it's not something I'm necessarily worried about, but I wanted to share what's going on there.
Now the second question we have, I talked about this in yesterday's episode, is we heard that the Biden administration is planning to put more restrictions on AI chips. And we did get an answer. We see that Nvidia's vice president of government relations sent an emailed statement to Barron's, where he noted that the country's extreme restrictive policies will affect regular computers around the world.
This will not contribute to national security in any way , but will only push the world towards alternative technologies. So right now , for those who don't know, Nvidia can't supply AI chips to China and Russia. The main reason is national security considerations . But now it seems that these restrictions will become increasingly strict, and it seems that many investors may be worried about Nvidia's AI chip sales.
First of all, let me say that with the change of administration to the Trump administration, the semiconductor market is currently experiencing such volatility that this can obviously be both a good and a bad thing . If we see more export restrictions, it could be bad for semiconductors. If we see less regulation, which is currently being actively promoted, it could be a boost for companies like Nvidia.
When I read that statement from Nvidia's VP of Global Affairs, it reminded me of something we just got from Microsoft a few days ago, especially when they talked about investing billions of dollars in the fiscal year. So, remember this quote. They said that this would not contribute to national security in any way , but would only push the world towards alternative technologies.
Now, if we take a closer look at this blog post that Microsoft put out on January 3rd, they called it a “ golden opportunity for American AI.” In this blog , the first thing they mentioned, or one of the segments they talk about, is AI exports. They noted that the United States needs a smart international strategy to quickly support American AI in the world.
And then they gave a kind of fundamental history lesson. They noted that about 20 years ago, when exports of telecommunications equipment were growing rapidly, initially all the main work was done by American and European companies . But due to strict regulation and significant subsidies from China, there has been huge competition from Chinese players, allowing them to subsidize product sales in developing countries, and the introduction of Chinese products has outpaced competitors, becoming the backbone of many countries' telecommunications networks.
Now they’ve mentioned 2025: Early signs suggest the Chinese government is interested in replicating its telecom strategy in the AI space, offering developing countries subsidized access to AI chips and promising to build local data centers. Microsoft believes that the best response for the United States is not to complain about competition, but to ensure victory in future races.
This will require swift and effective action to promote American AI as a superior alternative, as well as the engagement and support of American allies and friends. And the last thing AI exports from the United States need is continued regulation. So this reflects Nvidia's words to some extent: "Look, now these AI restrictions will force countries around the world to turn to other countries' technologies instead of using AI technologies from the United States ." And in the future, this could be a huge problem or a big mistake, as they will already be building their infrastructure on solutions from other countries, not American ones, and this could lead to even more market opportunities outside the US.
So it's quite interesting. Again, there will always be a lot of volatility in the semiconductor market under any administration, as these are the products used in the most advanced technologies. So volatility should be expected. Now, a positive factor influencing the semiconductor market is the monthly TSM reports.
For December 2024, they reported that the figures increased by approximately 1% compared to the previous month. Their year-on-year growth was 57.8%. And their total figure for the full year, from January to December 2023 compared to 2024, increased by about 34%. So, we see that the semiconductor market continues to grow steadily now.
And this is very positive for the AI field, because we know that this is where a lot of demand is concentrated right now. Also , I want to say that this is probably very encouraging for many semiconductor companies working with consumer electronics. Remember that the chips being manufactured now are not yet shipped as a finished product.
They still need to get into laptops. They still need to get into desktop computers. They still need to get into mobile phones. So that gives me an early signal that maybe not next quarter, but in the next two quarters, we should expect a good response or positive outlook for consumer electronics. And I think it's very positive for the semiconductor sector as a whole, and I'm excited about what's ahead of us, perhaps with the growth in demand for PCs, smartphones, and many companies will be able to benefit from that.
Companies like Micron Technology, right? After all , while TSMC may not manufacture Micron's memory products, their memory is used in all sorts of electronics where these chips will be installed. So, revenue forecasts for the month exceeded analysts' expectations, which I think is a great sign for the semiconductor market. I hope you enjoyed this short video. Take care of yourself. Have a nice day.
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