저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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CES 2025를 앞두고 엔비디아가 소비자용 CPU를 발표할 수 있다는 루머를 중심으로, 소비자 가전 전시회 특성상 AI 데이터센터 발표는 적고 GTC(3월)가 핵심 이벤트라고 설명. 엔비디아 CPU 진출 시 고마진 노트북 시장(AI 엔지니어, 게이머/크리에이터)을 겨냥할 수 있으며, 이는 AMD·인텔에는 경쟁 심화 단기 약세 요인, ARM에는 로열티 증가 기대 요인이 될 수 있다고 주장. 발표가 없으면 기대 선반영 후 엔비디아 단기 조정 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
happy New Year's to everybody and we're a few days away from Nvidia having their Keynotes at CES 2025 now I do want to say if the rumors are true CES is going to be very bullish for NVIDIA and unfortunately I believe it could be very bearish for AMD and Intel well in today's episode I'm going to go a little bit more deeper first we're going to try to understand what CES is and some of what both companies kind of released amtn n released in CES of 2024 so we can kind of understand the type of products that are usually released here at the end I want to take a closer look at some of these rumors that we're hearing about what Nvidia might release as well something completely different and why it can impact a lot of semiconductor companies in different ways so let's take a closer look but before we go any further and more importantly a happened.com ul like I mentioned CES is happening on January 6 and we are going to get a special keynote by Jensen himself the CEO of Nvidia and that's going to start at around 9:30 Eastern Eastern Standard Time here on January 6th so let me know in the comments below if you think I should do a live stream of it and if you're willing to join if not I will most likely be doing a video just a few hours maybe even a few minutes after the keynote event so nvidia's stock price is right now sitting at about 134 unfortunately the last day of the year did not see that great for the semiconductor over the tech Market in general Nvidia was down roughly 2% AMD was down roughly 1% I'm going to guess Intel actually Intel which was shocking was up 1% on the day intel was one of the few stocks green on a red day and this is probably I kind of mentioned it on my expost and Intel embodies that Meme of never let the world know what your next move is and I think the market did not expect that intel was going to be one of the few stocks up but regardless before CES you do start to see kind of a lot of excitement in stock prices normally when events like this happen you start to get a lot of excitement of what the company might release of what the company might announce and you start to see things trending up and then after the events you might see kind of a short decrease in price as all those expectations either were not met or the stocks was just too extended based on those expectations so as a short-term Trader I definitely would say be mindful of that as a long-term investor something that I am I could care less it's just going to be noise at the end of the day nothing's going to change but there is one possible rumor that in my opinion can create some form of reaction for the stock market in general and I'll explain that a little bit more in the in later in this episode but first for those that are not familiar with CES CES is a consumer electronic trade show and here you normally see just products or release is about the consumer market so we shouldn't see anything about the AI Data Center Market right if you're expecting Nvidia to announce anything major about their Data Center Market this is not the event we're most likely going to hear about that during GTC which is expected to happen on March of 2025 so the data center Market it's what really drives Nvidia stock right now now that doesn't mean that Nvidia can't announce pretty cool things I mean in the last CES of 2024 for because it is a consumer Market they focused on a lot of solutions that consumers can do with their consumer gpus the RTX 4,000 series line they kind of announced Partnerships with like Adobe how Adobe was a you're able to use kind of adobe software and the power of Nvidia gpus to do generative AI Solutions with a lot of these creative plays they also mentioned how maybe twitch and other streaming platforms were adopting nvidia's RTX gpus um driver IAL stuff like that to make it easier for Content creators in forms of actual Hardware release they did announce kind of an upgraded version of their current gpus which was the RTX 480 super and the RTX 4070 super right so they kind of refreshed some of their consumer gpus and made them a little bit better so those were kind of the main releases it had to do with either some AI software or improvements to their AI Hardware And in regards to the AI Hardware it kind of drove kind of like more laptop new new laptops as well coming in with their kind of new products so we can pretty much see is mainly meant for Consumer Market at the end though Nvidia did announce how they are working with the robotic space being industrial being consumer being medical the list goes on and on so I think the Reon robotics was was discussed during last year's CES is because the the Nvidia seems to think that the robotics Market is coming at very rapid levels and it's going to be a big player to the consumer space in maybe the next few years so they're trying to let us know everything they're working with there I personally believe that's going to happen this year as well we're most likely going to hear about nvidia's RTX 5000 series line which is going to be their next generation of consumer gpus I'm pretty sure if you're already Google Nvidia 580 or 590 you're going to hear that they are going to start to be announced during CES and most likely hit the shelves sometime later this month the other reason that I believe maybe something they might announce something more than gpus is because Jensen himself is actually going to be doing the Keynotes if we look at it at the last special address at CES I don't believe it was Jensen I don't think let me see um CES 2024 Jensen um not the es let's see I just want to yeah last year it wasn't Jensen that did the Keynotes it was just a lot of their Engineers this year it's actually going to be Jensen so for Jensen doing it is uh definitely a reason hey why aren you sending your normal people to discuss the consumer space why are you entering so in my opinion there also has the that is kind of giving us some evidence that maybe something different might happen outside of that I think the company is also going to release kind of more information about the robotics market right robotics has definitely taken a huge huge movement in the past few months um yesterday or two days ago we actually did a topic of how one of nvidia's senior Engineers was discussing how and we can pull him up it was Dr Jim fan um he mentions that hey look the 2025 is going to be a year of Robotics so all these pieces and them discussing it last year here I think we're going to hear more about the robotics market now AMT very similar to Nvidia really much only announced consumer products they announce kind of their consumer gpus consumer CPUs with some form of AI solution amongst them so that's what we should expect from both players and I think the market already knows that now there are a lot and a lot of rumors that Nvidia is actually going to announce a CPU for the consumer space which is normally pretty I when I first heard these rumors and these rumors have been going on for I want to say at least a year um and normally I wouldn't want this to happen because I think in the CPU space you had so much competition that Nvidia will probably not have high margins in this market but the more I think about it the more that I see it I think this is actually a very big opportunity for NVIDIA and this is not going to be nvidia's first CPU right they do have a CPU that is for their Data Center Market and that is the gray CPU the reason it's the gray CPU it helps with AI workloads and AI Solutions and I think they're going to bring this well to the consumer Market or at least to the business Market in in forms of consumer product and the way I'm thinking about it is if Nvidia does enter the CPU space I think they're only going to focus in high margin laptops in high margin Market markets and those two markets are the following the First Market in my opinion would be engineering AI Sciences machine learning scientists data scientists those that are just using those laptops to make or do AI workloads locally if you have uh Nvidia CPU and then an Nvidia GPU you'll probably be able to have the fastest workload which can help your Workforce in general so if they do release a CPU I think that's a key Market there's a lot of AI companies a lot of AI Engineers right there and I think that could create a nice opportunity for high margin product right and I think that's going to be very beneficial if they do it another industry is kind of like the gaming market and the cons and the creating Market be it being video editing image generation or just any type of content Creation in general and gaming if that's all you're using kind of like your CPU 4 and kind of like your GPU a partnership of Nvidia CPU and Nvidia GPU will probably give you the best performance it also will give you kind of the best efficiency as well opposed to using maybe your traditional x86 the only reason I would think Nvidia would be making a CPU is if they believe the current x86 architecture is holding their gpus back and if they don't if they believe it's holding their their their products back they're going to design something that makes their product shine like no tomorrow and I think those are the two two places that they can shine like no tomorrow the gaming content creation Community video editing community and all that and then the kind of engineering machine learning AI Sciences visualization IM emulation those type of people that are using accelerated Computing on their laptops and both are going to be high margins now if that does come up I do believe that could be a nice trajectory to the stock I think that can be very bullish as many analysts are not expecting that or exploding that in their revenue projections now I do believe that could create short-term bearish thesis for companies like AMD and Intel because if Nvidia enters any Market that's going to increase competition so obviously I am very bullish on AMD um AMD has vast growth opportunities in my opinion in the AI data center space but their core products is in the CPU client market so if you do own AMD these are some things to consider AMD is my number two position and even if they have a CPU I have no intentions of selling right now but I would have to listen to the CES events but something to be mindful of if am if Nvidia does release that CPU it could impact AMD and Intel a company that can also get bullishly impact would be arm so arm is the if Nvidia announces a CPU 99% sure is going to be based on the arm architecture there's no other way around it so if Nvidia announces this this can open up a huge opportunity for more royalty fees or more royalty collection for a company like arm and in the short term this could create a nice bullish sentiment for arm so I think big changes if these rumors are true that Nvidia does release a CPU if Nvidia doesn't release a CPU then I believe maybe we might see a nice decrease in certain stocks at especially Nvidia as before the event a lot of people are going to be expecting so much and maybe maybe the company might deliver again the big keyn note for NVIDIA is going to be GTC which is on March 2025 so March 17th so that's the one we're really excited about but I am curious I am really curious if Nvidia releases that CPU and where the market can use it so I hope you guys really enjoyed this episode um hope it got you thinking let me know in the comments below do you think Nvidia is going to have a CPU release during CES take care have a good day and check out what the chip happen.com
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