저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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TSMC가 애리조나 공장 투자를 120억 달러에서 400억 달러로 확대하고 2공장(3나노, 2026년)을 추가 건설한다고 발표. 미국 내 생산으로 공급망 리스크 완화 및 장비업체 수혜 기대. 다만 건설비용 증가로 마진 압박 가능성 언급. 본인은 개별주보다 반도체 ETF 선호.
다듬은 글
welcome back to another episode let's take a closer look at some semiconductor news that just came out yesterday and I think it's pretty interesting it involves the largest semiconductor manufacturing company tsmc as they announced updates for their Arizona plants so originally and let's just start over from the beginning right csmc this is the company that builds the chips for a lot of the semiconductor companies that we know for example AMD Nvidia even apple right they have over 50 of the market share unfortunately most of their I don't know if unfortunately but at the moment most of their production is done overseas as they have numerous plants in Taiwan well recently we have seen a lot of tensions happening around the world and due to supply chains we've seen a lot of companies invest in domestic semiconductor manufacturing so the company is now announcing that they're building not just one plant in Arizona but two and they're increasing their 12 billion dollar original investment to 40 billion dollars let's take a closer look in today's episode ood.com Jose to get the top 10 stocks to buy right now so on December 6 of 2022 tsmc announced that in addition to tsmc's Arizona's first plant which is scheduled to begin production of N4 process technology in 2024 so roughly two uh two years from now or a year and a half from now which is pretty impressive tsmc has also started the construction of a second plant which is scheduled to begin production of three nanometer process technology in 2026 the two Fabs will approximately be 40 billion dollars representing the largest foreign direct investment in Arizona history in addition to over 10 000 construction workers who help with the construction of sites the two Fabs will also create roughly 10 000 high-paying tech jobs including 4 500 direct tsmc jobs so on December 6 there was a huge showcase uh announcing all this news and you even had the president of the United States you also had some very big CEOs for example Tim Cook the CEO of Apple uh Lisa sue the CEO of AMT and Jensen Hong the CEO of Nvidia these are some of my favorite semiconductor companies so for them being there it definitely kind of shows that these are probably going to be some of the first customers and we know apple is one of the largest is actually the largest customer of TSM and this is something I've talked about in my previous uh in previous episodes of my semiconductor investing show uh so if you haven't watched that podcast make sure to click the link above it's a weekly podcast about the semicondu Dr market and I have a co-host we discussed that from different semiconductor news and one thing that we mentioned in that podcast is how Apple was probably forcing or kind of having a strong hand because they have such high revenue for tsmc that hey with all these tensions happening globally especially in Taiwan supply chain issues we want to have some way to kind of produce chips here in the United States just in case something happens right that kind of backup plan is definitely creating a ease to a lot of these customers who might have gone somewhere else to kind of get a backup plan and I'll discuss that a little bit later but we can see these new plants are going to be working on three nanometer and four nanometer by 2024 and 2026 at that time they might not be the most advanced chips but they definitely will be one of the most consumer based at that moment I definitely expect a three nanometer to really see the consumer space or really be a huge segment of Revenue in 2025 or 2026 uh so even though maybe at that time they might not be the most advanced notes I do believe it's going to be the one that's probably going to be the most dependent on some of these big players like AMD like Nvidia and Apple so obviously great news um there's some bad that I want to mention later on in this episode but they also gave some highlight on some tool companies that are going to be benefiting from this right because 40 billion dollars is a lot of money and this also goes to the semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies gsmc revealed that they're going to be using suppliers like Applied Materials asml Lam Research clack and the list goes on those are definitely some of the favorites numerous numerous Tailwinds for the semiconductor manufacturing equipment I personally though would rather invest in a semiconductor ETF than invest in any of these semiconductor companies individually but that's just my take right I know there's a lot of investors who really enjoy asml and then research and Applied Materials I'm not saying they're gonna do bad I just say I just believe the overall returns won't be that much more higher than an overall semiconductor ETF so I I want to mention a few things first why is this a good thing I I do believe this is a great news for TSM because of all these tensions we're seeing globally I mean we can see here on November 24th of 2022 Samsung will manufacture three nanometer chips for NVIDIA by Duke Qualcomm and IBM and I do believe what we're seeing right now is a lot of semiconductor companies are worried of how TSM has numerous other plants in Taiwan so they want to diversify a bit of their chip Manufacturing amongst other players Samsung being the number two competitor so now with tsmc investing in more Global plants all over the world here in the United States more semiconductor companies might be like okay you know what they do have plants outside of Taiwan so maybe I don't need to find a second source for a backup plan so I believe that's great news for TSM I also believe there could be some bad news here for TSM and I want to say at the end of the day margins right I do believe things like this might impact margins because building up a plant is super expensive buying equipment is super expensive and the revenue they're going to start spending all that money really soon but they won't start making any Revenue anytime soon so I do believe gross margins will take a hit the other thing I do want to mention is we have seen tsmcs complain about building uh building plants here in the United States we can see here in earlier 2022 tsmc says U.S plant constructions is more costly than expected and earlier on on the summer of 2022 or and earlier on April of 2022 the founder says that making chips in the United States is too expensive I do believe maybe these were just pushes to get the chip sack to happen uh here in the United States but at the end of the day obviously it's going to be more expensive building some of these ships here in the US compared to uh where they're being built right now so it could take a hit in margins I don't think it's going to be a major major hit but if you are an investor and you're taking a closer look at maybe um cash flow statements or or our future cash flow I don't want to say take in count that marches might decrease a bit compared to previous quarters the other thing we're seeing is the over correction of semiconductor uh consumer products and this is driving utilization rates uh to drop in TSM so this can also hit margins at the same time so something to keep in mind I don't believe TSM is going to lose their number one spot like I mentioned they are the number one player in the manufacturing business and they have over 50 of the market share as of early 2022 and I don't think that's expected to change anytime soon so I do believe this is great news for the United States in general for the semiconductor Market as well as we're going to see a lot more money being spent in this space so I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode take care have a good day and see you next time
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