저자: DanielleShay/GeorgeSelah · 외국인
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필라델피아 반도체지수(SOX) 17일 연속 상승으로 과매수 우려가 있으나 강세 지속 전망. 인텔 실적(CPU 수요) 호재로 AMD·엔비디아 등 반도체 강세. Danielle Shay는 단기 과열로 단기 포지션을 줄이고 SMH가 8·21 EMA까지 조정 시 매수 관점, 브로드컴은 실적 전 조정 시 매수 선호. George Selah는 AMD 1주 콜 스프레드(340/360) 전략 제시, 다만 좁은 종목 중심 상승에 따른 분산 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
We're back on Morning Trade Live, and we're looking at semiconductors for Inside Out today. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the SOX, is on a 17-day record winning streak. Look at that, above 10,000. 10,426 right now. So, we continue to see this climbing. Yes, in overbought levels, as many of the traders have been pointing out, but this has been nothing short of
uh quite stunning, in fact. Uh AMD is high by 12 and 1/2% right now. Intel is really what's giving a lot of this market the ammo today off the back of its earnings, the CPU demand that they've been talking about. 22 and 1/2%. I believe that's taking us back to levels around the dot-com period. Nvidia up 3 and 1/2%.
It seems to be shaking off any worries, particularly around what we've heard around deep seek of Huawei. TSMC also up 4%, and of course, that coming off the back of its record-breaking rally over in Taiwan overnight. So, a very nice day. All but Broadcom, actually. So, let's talk about this with Danielle Shay, who's a VP of Options at Simpler Trading.
Danielle, so nice of you to join us. Happy Friday. So, as Alex pointed out, a hefty chunk worth of upside that we're seeing right now in the S&P 500, which isn't up by much, is coming from Nvidia, Intel, and AMD. What does that tell you? Well, it tells me that this relative strength area of the market is going to continue pushing the market higher, especially due to the strength that we're seeing.
I mean, 3 4% moves are really strong, and so what that means is that if and when we see a pullback in SMH, and we start to see SMH trend higher again, that's going to be the first spot that I'll look to buy. Okay. And so, uh you know, as far as uh the SOX is concerned, I mean, many people have been talking about how, you know, this 17-day winning streak is um obviously a record-setting run here, but uh in overbought levels.
I mean, is there a risk from a trading perspective that we could see some sort of mean reversion on no news, uh particularly going into a very consequential week for for some of these hyperscalers? Absolutely, and that's why I've been really reducing my short-term positions, especially options positions, right now, because we are extended, and this has been a historical rally.
And especially when you get into the Magnificent Seven earnings week, that can really be a time where we see a lot of volatility and a pullback. So, certainly the moves have been absolutely amazing, uh but I do look to reduce short-term positions at these kind of extensions, and I try to wait for a pullback to about the 8 EMA or the 21 EMA on the daily chart.
But of course, with the strength of the market, it may be a little while until we see that. Okay. Um obviously, what we heard from Intel, this was going to be sort of the next test, people were saying, for the chip trade, and whether we would continue to see this record winning run here. Um obviously, what we heard from them around the CPU demand has now given the green light for people to hit the buy button.
Um particularly when you look at uh obviously shares in AMD rally. What is it that we heard from Intel, uh which is why we're seeing such moves in sympathy today across the space? Well, we're seeing continually increasing demand, especially that's spilling over into the CPU market. And so, with the reaction in the stock, you know, typically what I look for is what was the expected move on the stock over earnings, and what is it actually doing?
And it had about a $6 expected move. So, what we're seeing is almost twice what was expected, which tells us that investors were really surprised by this move, and it's going to continue helping push the semiconductor space higher. Obviously, you're seeing this huge move with AMD, uh which is It is typical for AMD to move higher during the pre-earnings time frame, but this is a pretty historical and major move to see in AMD.
So, what it tells us is that earnings so far have been strong. Uh the market loves the semiconductors right here, and this will continue to be a great place for me to focus, especially as we go into Nvidia and Broadcom earnings. Yeah, I just want to pick up on that before I let you go quickly. I mean, why is Broadcom sitting out this rally today?
Well, you know, I think part of the rally in Broadcom, it has already occurred. We've seen a massive move in Broadcom off of the lows uh from the war. And so, to me, I think it's just taking a little bit of a breather today, but I'll tell you what, that's one of my absolute favorite favorite stocks, and I would love to see it pull back to the 8 EMA on the daily chart, maybe the 21 EMA, because I would love to buy it before earnings.
I love buying tickers during the 21-day time frame before earnings, which Nvidia, by the way, is in right now. Uh and I think we're going to get another shot at Broadcom, as well. Yeah, and I think Broadcom, uh obviously, last time around gave that visibility, which very much gave it a leg up post earnings, as far as the rally after that last report card.
So, we'll have to wait and see. But Danielle, really appreciate it. Thanks so much for joining us. Happy Friday to you. Danielle Shay, there, VP of Options at Simpler Trading. Let's trade AMD now with George Selah, senior markets correspondent. Hi to you, George. Just walk us through an example trade, how you would approach this one.
Well, obviously, this is a stock that's in play as of late. Um if you look at the the measured move going back to October of last year until really February of this year, it's around $70. And so, with that said, uh with the continuation of momentum in AMD, there's a possibility we do see a little bit more uh gas in the tank moving up to about the $360 area, which again is is equivalent to that measured move in that uh 5-month period that I mentioned.
So, I'm going to structure a 1-week trade here. This is uh a risky trade in terms of being bullish. Um I'm going to buy a call spread uh going out to expiry next Friday. So, I'm going to buy the 340 call, and then I'm going to sell the 360 call against it. So, it's a $20 $21 wide spread. All together, you could uh you could purchase this for about $9 a share or $900 a contract.
So, in essence, that's your total risk in the trade. Uh the stock has to hit at least 349 by expiration next Friday, and you're paying $9 to potentially earn $11. And that only occurs if the stock does hit that target uh measured move, which is around $360 by expiration on Friday. So, again, it's a risky trade, assuming there's a continuation at least in the near term through next week.
All right. And George, just your overall thoughts on the market before we let you go, if I can get a quick one. I mean, uh obviously, the moves we're seeing in Intel and AMD is really what is driving this 1 and 1/2% gain on the Nasdaq, but just uh overall thoughts as we head into the weekend. Well, obviously, there's going to be a lot of volatility around what's going on geopolitically.
I just think right now, you're starting to see a very narrow group of stocks move higher. Uh right now, CPU stocks are in vogue. You're actually seeing other names like Qualcomm, uh ARM Holdings also move to the upside. So, again, as we move into the volatile next week of earnings, um you know, we may end up seeing a little bit more distribution of gains versus the narrow semiconductor names we've seen this last week.
Yeah, uh looks like we're having another nice day, as we've been mentioning for some of these semiconductors. In fact, the IGV uh also putting on some gains today, as well. But it's going to be a very consequential week next week. So, George, thanks for unpacking some of that for us today.
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