저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham은 버블의 특징(가격 급등, 가속 상승, 대중의 광기 확산)을 설명하고 현재 미국 주식이 2000년 수준에 근접하거나 넘어선 역대급 고평가 상태라고 진단한다. 과거 사례로 1928-29 미국 대공황 전 랠리, 1989년 일본 버블(주가 PER 60배 이상, 도쿄 부동산이 맨해튼 수배), 2000년 닷컴 버블과 미국 성장주 집중 고평가를 든다. 일본은 31년이 지나도 고점을 회복하지 못했다고 강조한다. 2007년 주택 버블은 약 10조 달러의 자산 가치 손실을 냈고, 중산층 주택 자산 손실이 소비와 교육 등 실물로 파급됐다고 설명한다. 현재 자산시장 상황: 4대 자산군 중 3.5개가 버블 상태이며, 미국 주식은 역대 최고 수준 고평가 후보, 금리는 4000년 역사상 최저 수준이라고 진단한다. 실질 수익률이 마이너스인 상황에서 정부에 돈을 맡기는 셈이라고 비판한다. 부동산은 Case-Shiller 기준 최근 12개월 약 13%, 다른 지수로는 약 20% 상승해 70년대 인플레이션기나 2005년 주택 버블보다 가파른 상승이라고 지적한다. 결론적으로 지금은 아무것도 사지 말라는 취지이며, 버블 붕괴 시 가능한 회피 전략을 강조한다. 구체적 종목 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
foreign you have to be willing to ride out and some people feel their lives aren't long enough to take the 10 15 20 Wipeout so for those who feel they're brave enough and willing to try I've always thought that sidestepping some of the pain might be a good idea I think they're perfectly straightforward they're intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult they're easy because in most cases they're so extreme it's like have you notice the Himalayas when you're standing in Northern India I mean they come out of the plane and they soar up you can't miss these things 1928-29 was just such a massive rally so the sheer price rise you can't miss secondly just to make it easier the great bubbles have always tended to rise faster and faster towards the end and that's the kind of defining feature also and then thirdly they have all been accompanied by Massive public obvious crazy behavior where the headlines migrate from the financial page to the front page where they migrate to the opening few sentences of the evening news on the radio of the television and they talk about Market New highs and they talk about what the Bitcoins of the era have done I know it's not a stock but it's a speculative instrument and The Game Stops of the world and back in 2000 most of you will be old enough to remember the pet.com and the utter craziness of that area and the same was true of 1929 the same was true of Japan we had a group from Solomon Brothers a leading American brokerage House of the era who came around in 8889 when Japan was moving to 60 times earnings and explaining that their yields Etc and their interest rates Etc they really should have been selling it 100 times and they were cheap and you should buy them and it didn't stop the Japanese Market breaking the following year it has not recovered the high of 31 years ago yeah so that was pretty painful taught us in a sense a powerful lesson about how human behavior works but it also explained to us why the big firms couldn't play that game it is simply not a commercial proposition to get out of a bull market because every now and then they run further and faster than you expected Japan went on and on and on Way Beyond people's expectations 2 000 beat the record there's a lot of difference between 35 times earnings and 21 the previous record so sometimes they break out to an astonishing degree now the bad news is that changes nothing they go back even more and longer and they go back where they came from and the higher they go the harder and longer they fall but it changes everything when you're there when you're having a bubble it's really advisable to have the bubble be in one focused area in 2000 for example it was U.S growth stops it was not Global and real estate was really cheap as in cheaper than the cost of building the building you could buy real estate for the bonds were really cheap and inflation-protected funds that just come out and they yielded 4.2 percent 4.3 I mean can you believe it real will return guaranteed against inflation even within the market the value stocks were not too bad and the small stocks were not too bad and small value was actually cheap enough that when the s p had gone down 50 it hadn't gone down at all it was I think plus three I mean amazing and the REITs all of the real estate they were up 30 as the s p hit minus 50.
that was a bubble that was Paradise for an acid allocator because there were so many Alternatives what you want to avoid is what Japan did in 89 Japan had the biggest bubble in history I believe bigger than the south sea bubble and that was in London real estate and the old Story the land under the empress Palace was worth more than the whole state of California we spent two days actually asking and digging and it was it literally was first of all it's a big palace with great palace grounds and secondly downtown Tokyo all around it was selling for you know four or five six times downtown Manhattan and the numbers worked out just amazing simultaneously they they had the biggest Equity bubble of any important Market there are some flaky tiny markets that don't count but of any major Market that's the biggest bubble of all time at the time we were told it had gone from 65 time zones there's always historical revisionism in the day this do you have to be a little careful but at the time it was clear everybody agreed 65 time zones which is pretty remarkable and it's had never sold at over 25 times before so that's the thing that makes every value manager wake up sweating in the middle of the night is Japanese stocks anyway they managed to do both of these at the same time and 31 years later the land is not back real estate's not back and stops are not back to where they were this was a loss of perceived wealth so profound that you have to congratulate the Japanese for not going into depression and people talk about the last decade but that was the last decade where they actually inched forward they actually did not go even backwards for the decade when you're taking that kind of loss of wealth you're in trouble now in the so-called great financial crash which irritates me as a title because I think it was a housing bust the housing market had this perfect three sigma 100 Year outlier bubble had been very very stable historically so to get to that level it only had to go up only he says about 40 or so in two to three years which it did and then it gave it all back but the trouble with 2007 housing bubble is it took the stock market with it the stock market was not sensationally overpriced but it was a big overpriced bull market it was not in itself a bubble but the housing market was a bubble a beautiful magnificent bulb and if you look at it it's perfectly round it goes after three years it goes down for three years exactly the same speed and it goes all the way back where it came from and the housing bubble inflicted about 10 trillion dollars of loss of perceived value so one minute you thought your house was worth four hundred thousand three years later you would tell it was worth 550 000 three years later you were told it was four hundred thousand and two years after that 350 000.
so you had lost an enormous asset and housing markets are much more dangerous because more people own them the middle class in particular that earns very little stock earns a lot of Housing and it really when you lose that value you skip the trip to Portugal and you realize you can't send your second son to a private school and it really flows through the system don't do it so what do we have this time we have of the four major asset classes on the planet we have three and a half in bubble left we have Jim Grant would say the most overpriced one market and the lowest rates in the history of man that go back 4 000 years there is never a time when so much had a negative return where you pay the government to take your money so that's number one number two we're a contender for the highest priced U.S Equity Market in history I would say a majority of bubble experts think this is now slightly higher than 2000 which was epic and some people do not but at least we can all agree it's a contender and then we have real estate and real estate was kind of off screen until a few minutes ago and suddenly on some of the databases it has risen 20 percent in the last 12 months as Schiller series a little more conservative lagged quite a bit I think it's only up to 13 but the other series perfectly seriously done up 20 is the sharpest rise sharper than the 70s with inflation and sharper than the housing bubble of 2005.
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