저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 인플레이션은 통제가 어렵고 스태그플레이션을 거쳐 달러 신뢰 붕괴로 이어질 것이라는 주장. 연준의 긴축은 금융자산 거품을 꺼뜨릴 뿐 인플레이션을 잡기엔 부족하며, 결국 금리를 다시 낮추게 된다는 전망. 미국 성장주·기술주·암호화폐에서 해외 가치주로 자금 이동이 일어나고 있다고 진단하며, 유럽·아시아 배당주 보유를 권함. 현금·국채·연금·보험 현금가치 등 달러 표시 채권은 인플레이션에 의해 실질 가치가 훼손되므로 피해야 한다고 주장. 국채는 '무위험 수익'이 아니라 '수익 없는 위험'이라고 평가하며, 현재 채권 가격은 연준 때문에 과도하게 비싸다고 봄. 금·은 등 실물자산과 이익 및 배당을 내는 기업 지분 보유를 선호.
다듬은 글
foreign we have so much debt because of all the past money planting and all the stimulus of the FED they have created a situation where it's impossible to fight inflation and so they won't do it and that's going to be the seeds of the next Crisis because as the FED is tightening up on its monetary policy to make it less loose right we're not going to have Tight money we're just going to have money that's less lose than it was before the problem is less loose is not enough to sustain the acid bubbles you know in a lot of these Financial assets so we get a crash but it's not tight enough to actually bend the inflation curve and so inflation is going to keep getting worse even as the FED is hiking rates supposedly to fight it that's going to lead to stagflation that's ultimately going to cause the FED to reverse course and start easing again even though inflation will be worse than when it started its tightening campaign and somewhere along the way the mark Marcus are going to wake up to this reality and the dollar of the bottom rather is going to drop out of the dollar and then we're going to have a currency crisis that will morph into a sovereign death crisis and then it's all over you know then we have a a real collapse because then the FED has to let interest rates go way up and everything comes crashing down in a much more spectacular way than 08 except nobody gets bailed out everybody has to suffer the losses in their entirety and they'll be much bigger or they don't have the guts to do that and they just keep pretty money anyway and they they print the dollar into Oblivion and we have hyperinflation which of course would be even worse so people have to go out of these risky momentum stocks into value and what we're seeing is a massive shift out of U.S growth stocks to International value stocks stocks in Europe stocks in Asia basic businesses that have real earnings right now that pay good dividends right now that's where investors are hiding out that's why you're seeing some of these stocks up 10 20 percent on the year with no news even as U.S tech stocks are cratering and all the bubble stocks including the cryptocurrencies all that stuff is going down you got to get into real assets you got to get into value you got to get out of paper and you got to get out of U.S paper in particular because we've got the biggest inflation problem that we can't do anything about because because we're so loaded up with debt there's no way to fight inflation without collapsing the entire economy because the whole economy is built on the foundation of these artificially low interest rates but in order to fight inflation you have to remove that foundation and then if you do that everything built on top of it comes crashing down emotional when you think about a stock market you're thinking about the entire market and index I want to own businesses I have to get out of cash but I can't own you know the momentum stocks I can't own these you know high-flying companies that don't have any earnings and I can't buy cryptocurrencies which have no value or no earnings you know they went up along with everything else I want to own something real so I own businesses tangible companies that have property plant equipment what you want to do with inflation is recognize that the biggest losers are creditors people who are owed money and are going to be paid that money in depreciated currency so you Don don't want to be a creditor in US dollars so you don't want to own cash you don't want to own bonds you don't want to be in annuities or you don't want cash value in a in an insurance policy you've got to own real things and that's why I'm buying all these foreign stocks companies that pay very high dividends I mean I'm buying stocks for some of them are trading for under 10 times earnings many of them pay dividend yields of five to ten percent I get that cash I can spend it if you're retired you could use that cash to you know Finance your living and as the dollar goes down the value of those dividends will go up and of course the companies that I own they're all raising their prices now so they're going to be able to raise their prices so they're going to have higher earnings and they can pay me higher dividends so those increasing dividends will keep Pace within increasing cost of living but a lot of Americans who are in the U.S stock market they're collecting no dividends they just have overpriced stocks that are falling and if they have money in bonds the low interest rate rates that they're earning are completely inadequate they're being more than offset by inflation if you're getting two or three percent interest and inflation is seven or ten percent you're going backwards every year and eventually you won't be able to afford to maintain your lifestyle especially if you're retired bonds are riskier than stocks right now I mean it's unfortunate because bonds are where you're supposed to go when you want to play it safe because you're not taking the risk of the stock market you're guaranteed to get your money back the person who you loan the money to is committed to paying you back and you know what your return is going to be because you have a fixed interest but the problem is anyone who buys bonds now in this environment is overpaying the prices are inflated because of the Fed so you're paying this ridiculously high price for an asset that barely throws off a yield interest rates eventually rise the price of the bond collapses but meanwhile inflation is destroying the value of the bonds of the cash rather that the bonds are going to pay you bonds are extremely risky I mean people talk about treasuries as risk-free return I've been calling it return free risk for years nothing's safe anymore thanks to the central Bankers so you have to look at degrees of risk and to me I think it's a lot less risky to be in foreign equities than U.S Bas I think it's a lot less risky to be in gold and silver than in U.S dollars one of the ways you know the stock is a good value you look at the income just like when you look at a piece of property and you're looking for the cash flow you're looking at what the rents are relative to cost of operating it if I own a business I want to know what my piece of the profits are what am I going to get what's my return on my investment forget about potential appreciation I don't care about that I mean what if I never sell the stock what is my return on owning this stock and that return is the dividend it can also be capital appreciation if the company has enough income to buy back stock and deliver some of my income in the form of capital gains so you also look at the earnings because most companies don't pay out all their earnings and dividends so you still are you know entitled to a share of the earnings of the company when you're a stockholder even if those earnings aren't paid out in dividends but you look at all these valuations and you determine if that's a good place uh for your money now fortunately there's a lot of good businesses around the world that we can own a piece of and preserve our wealth that way but you know all of these assets are going to get increasingly more expensive for Americans as the dollar loses value so people have to act quickly while they can still afford to buy these stocks the last decade was all about U.S stock market the U.S stock market outperformed the rest of the world because the rest of the world's got value stocks and we've got hyped up momentum and tech stocks and so the world wanted those stocks they don't want them anymore they're getting rid of those stocks and that's also a big problem for the dollar because we were recycling our trade deficits because foreigners at one point took the dollars they earned selling us stuff and they bought our bonds
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