저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 미국 주식시장이 역사상 가장 고평가되어 있으며, 워런 버핏 지표(시총/GDP) 약 200%로 2000·2007·2021년 고점을 넘어섰다고 주장한다. AI 열풍과 빅7 쏠림이 거품을 키웠고 관세전쟁·부채 등으로 경제 불확실성이 크다. 시장이 50% 하락해도 역사적 범위 안이라고 본다. 대응으로 가치주 선호, 미국 외 주식(한국 PER 10 등 상대적 저평가), 미국 내에서는 고품질(저부채·고이익률) 종목 집중을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
That suggests that the market could easily go down by 50%. And and be well within its historical boundary. The stock market is gloriously overpriced in the US. Lock them up for 10 years and throw the key away. But if you do that in in the S&P, I think 50/50 you won't make any money at all. There's a prediction.
What if I told you that the stock market is more overvalued today than at any time in the last nearly 100 years? According to legendary investor Jeremy Grantham and even Warren Buffett, there's a littleknown metric flashing red that most investors are ignoring. If history is any guide, that means a painful market correction of at least 50% is on the horizon.
Listen to Grandantham explain. We were talking earlier that outside it's a P super. You can't even see the next building. And that's a pretty good analogy with the market from my perspective. It's seldom it's seldom easy to see what's coming. You only get a little kind of glimpse through what they used to call the fog of war.
And and now you don't even get that glimpse. The uh all the old ratios don't seem to work for a variety of reasons, but you start with rattle the world to its bones and then the stimulus was an order of magnitude bigger than anything we had ever seen. And it ended up with trillions of dollars in in very weird hands.
People who were bored and forced to be at home with nothing to do but speculate on on stocks and they did and it stayed that way. So even in the recent decline, the the selling was by institutions, the buying was by individuals. Th this is incredibly new. So that's influence number one. The second great difference here that's also changed all the traditional responses is the um introduction of AI which really came to be recognized with chat GBT in October 22 and we were having what you might call a traditional bare market and it kind of ended overnight with half a dozen MAG half a dozen roaring upwards and eventually dragging the market with it.
That cut right across all the traditional uh reflexes and then finally uh we have tariff war. So if anyone can unravel that that series of abnormal influences, we we're still we're still unpredictable because of response. We're certainly still unpredictable because of AI. No one knows what AI is going to do.
It's going to change the world, but no one knows when and how. And on top of all that, no one has a clue what the tariff war is going to do and how quickly it will do it. Are we going to have a major recession, a small recession? None at all. The economists are completely at sea, in case you hadn't noticed that.
You can find an economist with with any view today on a on a huge spectrum. and and since the stock market in a way takes its lead from the economy and no one knows what's happening to the economy. So they're the three levels of abnormal responses that have completely scrambled the market and makes it very very hard to know what's going on.
The the single thing all three have in common is that they should um increase your respect for uh risk, volatility, uncertainty, be more careful than normal. That's kind of round one. And then round two, you you back down to looking at more traditional VA views of the market. And the ones I respect the most, the ones that have provably the best predictable record over many years, over 7 8 n 10 years, they all say that the market is about as high in December recently as it has ever been in history.
uh higher than 1929 and at least as high as uh 2000 and and as high as the recent peak in December 21. But the most predictable ones are variance of the total market cap versus the GDP. Okay. Um which is Warren Buffett's said to be Warren Buffett's favorite, right? And and there are fairly elegant serious variants of that.
and Husman does a a very wellw worked out variant which he believes is the single most predictive and I have no reason to doubt it since we have a very a very similar model at GMO and and that suggests that the market could easily go down by 50%. And and be well within its historical boundary. That would not be a colossal uh low.
Jeremy Grantham believes one of the most reliable tools for measuring market overvaluation is something called the market cap to GDP ratio better known as the Warren Buffett indicator. Warren Buffett himself once said that this ratio is the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.
So what is it? At its core, the Warren Buffett indicator is a way to measure how expensive or cheap the overall US stock market is relative to the size of the actual economy. It works by taking the total market capitalization of all publicly traded US companies and dividing it by the nation's gross domestic product or GDP.
Market capitalization reflects the total value investors are placing on publicly traded companies while GDP represents the actual output of goods and services produced in the economy. So why does this matter? Because when the market's valuation climbs far above the value of the economy it's supposedly based on, it suggests a disconnect between perception and reality.
This disconnect is how bubbles form. If the ratio is extremely high, it means investors are pricing in aggressive assumptions, expecting future profits to grow at rates that may not be sustainable. In essence, a high market cap to GDP ratio is a warning sign that the stock market may be overvalued, propped up more by hype and optimism than by fundamentals.
Historically, when this ratio reaches extreme levels, as it did in 2000, 2007, and again in 2021, it is often followed by a significant market correction or crash. As of the making of this video, the total market capitalization of the US stock market stands at approximately $59.1 trillion. Meanwhile, the United States annualized GDP is around 29.5 trillion.
When you divide those two numbers, you get a Buffett indicator reading of nearly 200%. And that raises the trillion question. How extreme is this really? Well, take a look. A 200% reading isn't just high. It's the highest level ever recorded. It's higher than the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000, higher than the real estate fueled bubble of 2007, and even slightly above the frothy meme stock mania of 2021.
To put this into perspective, based on historical averages, the US stock market would need to fall by roughly 50% just to return to what the indicator considers a fair value. This leads us to the question of what's fueling this disconnect between the economy and the stock market. Grantham argues that one of the biggest drivers is the hype around artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence has become the dominant narrative driving markets. This excitement exploded in late 2022 with the launch of chat GPT and since then a small group of meggaap tech giants dubbed the magnificent 7 have led a powerful rally lifting the broader market alongside them. As of the making of this video, these seven stocks account for a staggering one-third of the entire value of the US stock market.
Jeremy Grantham describes this phenomenon as a bubble within a bubble. Here's the twist. Grandantham doesn't deny that AI is real or revolutionary. In fact, he puts it in the same league as gamechanging breakthroughs like the internet or the railroads. But that's exactly why he's concerned. In his view, it's the most transformative technologies that often fuel the most dangerous bubbles.
Because when something is seen as inevitable, it attracts unlimited investor capital and sends valuations into the stratosphere. It's a pattern we've seen before. During the dotcom bubble, Amazon, a future titan, lost 90% of its value before clawing its way back. Grantham believes we're witnessing a similar dynamic now.
AI may be the future, but the speculative mania surrounding it is, in his eyes, masking deeper fragility in the market. Sooner or later, he warns that this bubble, like all others, will pop. So, what should investors actually do in an environment like this? Listen as Grantham explains how to protect yourself from the financial damage he believes is inevitable when the bubble finally bursts.
What What should you do now? The stock market is gloriously overpriced in the US, but foreign stocks are perfectly reasonable. And when you have a major bubble, you also have incredible stretching of traditional relationships. So the gap between value and growth is as big as it gets. It's in the, you know, top few percentile of of history.
And the gap between foreign and the US is at or close to an all-time record. So these are the things you have to do. Emphasize value, emphasize non US. And if you're in in the US, and you have to be uh and I I have to be a little sympathetic. Most people really have to be in the US. The thing to do is concentrate on risk.
One way to do that is high quality. High quality has less debt. If the economy goes into the tank, and it may well do just that because of the tariff war and other problems, record debt and so on. You do not want to have debt and high-quality companies have very little and you want to have high profit margins so they can be squeezed without sending you out of business.
When Jeremy Grantham looks at today's stock market, he doesn't just see high valuations. He sees extreme distortions. And that's exactly where his recommendations come in. First, Granthm believes investors should favor value stocks over growth. He points out that the valuation gap between the two is now in the top percentile of history, meaning growth stocks, especially in tech, have become dangerously expensive.
While value stocks have been left behind, this isn't just a short-term trade. Granthm sees this as a rare opportunity to lean into parts of the market that are fundamentally cheaper and positioned for long-term mean reversion. Second, Granthm says that investors should look beyond the US stock market entirely.
According to Grantham, the gap between US stocks and international markets is at or near an all-time high. While the US market remains historically overpriced, many foreign markets are trading at reasonable, even attractive valuations. Here you can see the current PE ratios of different countries throughout the world.
As of the making of this video, the US stock market is trading at a PE ratio of around 24. As you can see, this is significantly higher than other developed countries. Sweden is trading at a PE ratio of 20, Australia at 19, France, Germany, and the UK at 18, Japan at 15, Italy at 12, and South Korea at 10.
You get the point. Grantham believes international markets offer far better value for long-term investors. In his eyes, the US is priced for perfection while the rest of the world is priced for opportunity. And third, for investors who need to maintain exposure to US stocks, Grantham offers a clear warning.
Proceed with caution and prioritize quality above all else. He advises focusing on companies with fortress-like balance sheets, minimal debt, and consistently high profit margins. The kind of businesses that can endure economic turbulence without being forced into distress. In an environment where uncertainty is the norm, Grantham emphasizes that financial strength and resilience aren't just nice to have.
They're essential for survival. If you made it this far in the video, it's obvious that you are serious about learning about investing in the stock market. If that's the case, you are going to want to check out this video here. Warren Buffett recently issued a warning of the future of the US economy that you need to hear. I will see you over there.
Comments 0