저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 대선 이후 시장은 상원 공화당 유지로 자본이득세 인상·미실현이익 과세·빅테크 분할·의료 국유화 같은 최악 시나리오가 제거됐다고 보며 안도하고 있다. 선거 결과와 정책 환경 대선 투표수가 약 1억 2천만 명으로 100년 만에 최대 투표율이라고 언급했다. 상원을 공화당이 유지해 자본이득세율 인상과 미실현 자본이득 과세가 없을 것으로 전망했다. 시장은 여론조사와 달리 이런 결과를 선반영해 옳았다고 평가했다. 산업별 영향 빅테크는 분할 가능성이 낮아 수혜로 봤고, 헬스케어도 국유화 없이 약값 문제만 남을 것으로 봤다. 인프라 관련주는 하원 민주당·상원 공화당의 교착으로 타격을 받았지만, 인프라 지출 필요성은 공통 인식이라 장기적으로 기회가 있다고 했다. 금융·금리 선거 직후 모기지 금리가 사상 최저로 떨어졌고, 장단기 금리차 축소(플랫닝)는 지역은행에 불리하다고 봤다. 지역은행 지수는 상대 시장 대비 신저점을 기록했다. 자본 흐름 노르웨이 국부펀드가 북미, 특히 미국 자산 비중을 늘리기로 했다는 점을 긍정적으로 언급했다. 유럽에서 미국으로 자본이 이동하고 있다고 봤다. 코로나 및 유럽 전망 유럽은 과잉 봉쇄로 대응하고 있다고 비판했고, 1차 봉쇄가 효과가 없었다는 입장이다. 미국은 재확산이 있으나 유럽보다 완만하고 치명률 상승도 제한적이라고 했다. 리스크 장기금리 하락 지속 시 지역은행 수익성 악화가 우려된다. 코로나 재확산과 정책 교착이 변수다. 출연자 전망 요약 정책 리스크 해소로 빅테크·헬스케어에 우호적이며, 인프라·지역은행에는 상대적으로 부정적 시각이다.
다듬은 글
so first the election well uh a hundred and twenty million people voted uh i believe uh that's the largest turnout in i believe a hundred years i read that today it surprised me um i hope it's right anyway uh the markets are relieved uh mostly because of what has happened in the senate uh because the republicans seem to have kept the senate senate um we know that capital gains tax rates are not going to go up uh and uh that there is no chance of the worst uh proposal of all a tax on unrealized capital gains uh the market was seemed to be leaning in this direction moving into into the election uh even though the polls were saying something different so the market in its wisdom got this right uh so uh the the uh in the context of uh fiscal policy and monetary policy uh we've uh the markets making bets on this uh the results of this election as well in the case of big tech and health care which benefited i think what the market's saying it's unlikely we're going to break up the big technology companies and in healthcare uh we are not going to move towards nationalizing uh the healthcare system at all so so that that's good we probably will still hear as we always do no matter what year it is about drug pricing being a problem as a as the next administration takes hold but that's nothing new and in the world of innovation we're focused away from areas really that are going to be impacted by some of the price sensitivity out there as far as infrastructure and banks they were hit infrastructure because it does seem like we will be in gridlock uh in in in the government uh with the house uh being democrat and the senate being republican maybe there will be um a an opportunity to cross the chasm in some way reunite in some way that would be very hopeful but i do think that the infrastructure stocks have been hit here i don't think it's thrown them off though i think everyone knows we need more infrastructure spending and mitch mcconnell did say one of his top priorities was more stimulus now i think he means that for the hardest hit areas of our economy especially the travel and entertainment hospitality uh part of the economy uh but it is possible that that will include infrastructure as well that that certainly is a a topic that could unite the various policy makers as far as banks well mortgage rate rates drop to a to a record low here uh right after the election and uh that would suggest that uh the regional banks have have issues and and the the regional banks relative to the market dropped to a new low so this this means a yield curve um that is flattening is bad so long rates coming down relative to short rates short rates can't go much lower long rates uh coming down or staying down here uh is a problem for for many of the regional banks and for most banks uh actually uh as far as capital flows will uh that what has happened in this election uh invite be more inviting to uh capital uh i i saw this week that norway said it is going to be allocating more of its assets this is a sovereign wealth fund more of its assets toward north america especially the united states uh and that's interesting that's i believe it's still the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world if not the largest one of the top so that was very interesting and that was even before the election so there's there's a reason for that uh we are seeing in europe uh with the second wave of the coronavirus you know a panic shutting down and i don't think this has affected norway but i do think there is capital flowing from europe toward the united states as you know europe seems to find itself in one predicament after another um i would say they're overreacting to the coronavirus that's just my take on it the first lockdown didn't work a virus is a virus the weather is getting colder and so we are seeing cases uh spike uh espec much more so in europe than in the united states although we are seeing a resurgence here uh as far as the the the fatality rate however uh in the united states there's a slight increase but uh nothing like uh the the jump in cases that we're seeing in europe uh it's a little more serious to be sure um even in sweden which did not go into a lockdown uh they they are somewhat more concerned than they have been uh in the last in the last nine months which which is interesting you
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