저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 경기는 강하게 회복 중이나, 재고 증가와 고용 둔화 등으로 V자 회복 논리는 약해졌고 연말 연휴 소비가 핵심 변수다. 경기·소비: 소비, 주택, 설비투자, 무역이 강하게 회복 중이라고 평가. 연말 연휴 소비가 강할 것이라는 근거로 JP모건 신용카드 사용액이 블랙프라이데이~사이버먼데이 연휴에 15% 증가했다는 점을 제시. S&P500은 9월 평균 대비 약 9% 상승 중이며, 소매판매는 보통 이 흐름을 따른다고 설명. 고용 보고서: 비농업 고용은 24.5만 명으로 예상치 46만 명을 하회. 가계 고용은 약 7만~7.7만 명 감소. 실업률은 0.2%p 하락했으나 경제활동인구 감소 때문이라고 해석. 소매와 코로나 재확산에 따른 식당 규제로 소매 약세, 기술 고용 보합, 정부 고용이 가장 큰 약점으로 지목. 지방정부 재정 적자 제한으로 정부 일자리 감축이 이어지며 추가 재정 지원 필요성 언급. 재고·제조업: 재고가 다시 늘기 시작한 것이 과거 6개월과 달라진 점. 기업이 수요를 따라잡으면서 V자 회복의 전제가 약해졌다고 판단. 제조업 주간 근로시간이 0.5% 감소한 것도 이 재고 전환과 연결해 설명. 임금·저축: 평균 시간당 임금 상승률은 전년 대비 5.6%에서 5.9%로 가속. 저축률은 10월 13.6%로 하락했지만 코로나 이전 약 8%보다 여전히 높아 소비 여력이 충분하다고 평가. 여행 억제로 지출 여력이 다른 소비로 이동할 것으로 봄. 설비투자·디지털화: 내구재 보고서가 설비투자 급증을 재확인. 디지털화가 글로벌 경제에서 예상보다 훨씬 깊게 진행 중이며 개별 기업 사례를 후속으로 언급하겠다고 함. 시장 지표: 구리가 절대 기준과 금 대비 모두 상방 돌파해 대표적 경기 순환 지표로 해석. 달러 약세가 물가 지표 방향과 맞물리며, 달러 하락은 S&P500 기업 이익을 뒷받침하는 효과가 있다고 봄. 리스크·조건: 재고 증가로 인한 제조 둔화, 고용 약세, 지방정부 감원, 코로나 재확산에 따른 외식·소매 제약.
다듬은 글
so on the economy well uh it's been on fire whether we're talking about consumption housing uh capital spending uh even trade has picked up fairly dramatically uh and so we are um i'm just one sec i'm gonna hang up uh so um we we are uh always on the lookout for okay what next uh and today's employment report uh gave us a lot of information but before uh i go there uh i'd like to talk about uh one thing that has changed relative to our expectations um uh before and and relative to uh uh the trends that were in place uh in the last six months uh inventories have started building again that's a big difference and as i as i mentioned on many of these calls for months now businesses have been scrambling particularly on the durable and non-durable side they've been scrambling to keep up with demand well they are beginning to catch up so that now we're seeing inventory increases now that's not a bad thing we need inventories to keep uh up with uh final sales growth but that is a change and so the certainty of a v-shaped recovery uh that was born out of this idea that the businesses were scrambling to to keep up with consumers that is no longer the case what would make that the case once again is an extremely strong holiday season and i think we're going to see that there are a few metrics we can use already jp morgan just today reported that its credit card growth was up 15 percent over the the black friday cyber monday uh long weekend uh that is an extremely strong number up 15 percent uh if you look at the s p 500 um you take the average for september and see where we are now we're up about nine percent uh and typically retail sales uh follow that that number so nine percent up from the september average again that would be an extremely strong holiday season uh and so the signs are good in the employment report today we did get a few weak spots first of all the entire report was weaker than expected with non-farm payroll uh payroll employment up 245 000 expectations were 460 000 more important to us was household employment which includes many more small businesses was actually down i think roughly 70 to 77 000 somewhere in that range so an actual decline in the broader measure of employment the unemployment rate did tick down two tenths but that's because the labor force shrunk so that probably means that there are people more people not looking for jobs maybe because we're approaching the holiday season and i should say more people than normal not looking for holiday jobs because this this uh statistic is seasonally adjusted uh the weak areas within the report were retail and i think we understand that with the resurgence of the coronavirus and and the restrictions now being placed on restaurants and uh other other um retail establishments tech was flat and that's very interesting to us it it could be that productivity is increasing in the tech sector itself because of the digitalization of everything and uh government spending was the biggest weak spot now many uh state and local governments are not allowed to run deficits and so they've had no choice but to lay off layoff people so that is an issue there may be in the fiscal package uh some shoring up although not nearly as much as as many in congress wanted a little shoring up of the hardest hits uh state state and local governments the other weak spot in the employment report was a significant drop in the manufacturing work week a 0.5 percent drop or 0.2 hours i pay a lot of attention to that and it goes back to that inventory discussion if inventories are now keeping up with final demand then this notion that manufacturers have to scramble to catch up uh with final demand that no longer is the case and so that's probably explains why the manufacturing work week went down uh the the positive um part of the report was average weekly earnings on a year-over-year basis its growth rate or their growth rate accelerated from 5.6 percent to 5.9 percent the other thing which i didn't mention earlier but which is still true is the saving rate is still high uh so with the october report we saw that the saving rate dropped to 13.6 percent but again very high by historical standards it was roughly eight percent before we headed into uh the coronavirus crisis and uh and so it means that the consumer still has more firepower power as many people have noted uh consumers are not taking big trips um for thanksgiving and the holidays this year and therefore they have that much more in spending power elsewhere so that's another buttress to consumption and we also got today the durable goods report which is reinforcing the surge in capital spending that is underway and we think a lot of that surge has to do with the digitization of uh the global economy i mean it's hap it's it's much more profound than i i believe even we expected at the beginning of the coronavirus and i'll give you a few company examples of that later on as far as market indicators uh well the commodity with the phd that would be copper um just have to hang this thing up again uh the commodity with the uh phd so that's copper that has broken out it's broken out to the upside in an absolute sense and it has broken out relative to gold so that is a big cyclical indicator uh one of the reasons it may be breaking out uh is that the dollar is breaking down uh and uh and that means two things i mentioned some inflation uh indicators may may be pointing in the wrong direction uh the dollar uh would be one of those uh the uh the the declining dollar also does a good thing from at least from an optical point of view and that is it bolsters earnings uh s p earnings u.s earnings and so um there there are two impacts there we're focused on it
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