저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 기관 편입이 진행 중이며 장기적으로 상승 여지가 크다는 낙관론이다. 비트코인 최근 흐름: 올해 3월 코로나 사태 때 4,000달러 아래까지 떨어진 뒤 크게 올랐으며, 그 과정에서 생태계(거래소 등)의 리스크 관리와 거버넌스가 개선됐다고 평가했다. 100배 레버리지 같은 과도한 구조는 3월 급락 때 사업 중단으로 이어졌다. 기관 채택 근거: ARK 리서치의 백서 두 편(기관이 비트코인을 받아들일 준비, 비트코인이 기관을 받아들일 준비)을 언급했다. 마이크로스트래티지는 보유 현금 전부를 비트코인으로 전환했고, 스퀘어는 자산의 약 1%(현금의 약 2%)를 비트코인에 넣었다고 언급했다. 페이팔 동향: 스퀘어·로빈후드에 이어 페이팔도 비트코인 매수·매도를 허용하기로 해, 보수적 기업의 참여라는 점에서 공신력 신호로 봤다. 배분 비율 시나리오: 연기금 등 기관의 비트코인 배분 비율이 약 5%(백서상 4~6%)가 될 수 있다는 가정. 부동산(1970년대 1%→5%), 신흥국(MSCI 편입 후 1%→5%) 사례를 같은 패턴으로 제시했다. 가격 전망: 기관 배분이 실현되면 비트코인 가격이 40만~50만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 장기 시나리오. 현재 가격은 2만 달러 수준으로 언급. 다만 수년이 걸릴 것이라고 명시했다. 1~3개월 단기 방향 언급은 없음. 리스크: 레버리지 과열과 거래소 리스크가 언급됐으나 구체적 손실 시나리오는 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 기관 편입이 이어질 것이라는 낙관적 견해 유지.
다듬은 글
but finally uh what i'd like to talk about is bitcoin um bitcoin has had a magnificent run this year it got down below 4 000 in uh march during the corona virus crisis and we know very well went through a lot of growing pains in that time and i think is uh better for it uh and i mean the entire ecosystem including the exchanges that at one time allowed a hundred times leverage i don't know if that's still going on but those who were a hundred times levered uh in march uh they they no longer have their businesses so i think governance is becoming better in this space which is all to the all to the good uh we have written uh two white papers specifically yasin al mandra our crypto analyst has and um one of them examines uh whether uh uh institutions are ready for bitcoin uh and uh also asked the other question is bitcoin ready for institutions and uh you know we think one of the reasons that bitcoin is appreciating is institutions are dipping their toes in now they're doing this not just from an investment point of view but from a corporate cash point of view some of you may know that microstrategy has converted all of its cash the cash on its balance sheet uh into bitcoin uh square has done that uh with i believe it's five percent of its as no one percent of its assets two percent of its cash uh and i believe we're going to see other companies doing that as well um we know that paypal uh also announced so it is uh following square and robin hood and allowing the purchase and sale of bitcoin uh paypal is uh you know a much more conservative more old world company than either square or robin hood so again some some validation there seal of approval of sorts and the paper that yassine wrote describes what would happen if institutions decide that a a five percent allocation to bitcoin is appropriate and the reason and and really that number is uh closer to the six percent range the way we wrote the paper but the reason five percent is important to me is i saw real estate um entering pension funds uh in the 70s and they went to started with one percent migrated to five percent we saw emerging markets many uh pension funds and institutional investors um moving into emerging markets as msci developed that classification and uh moved from one percent to five percent and wherever they are now uh and we think the same thing is going to happen with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and if it does and if it's say just with bitcoin and we've got that five percent allocation somewhere in the four to six percent range um that if that were to happen and all institutions were going to do it of course that's not going to happen but some might add more uh so offsetting those who don't participate at all that would add somewhere uh between 400 000 and 500 000 to the bitcoin price we're at 20 000 right now now that is not going to happen tomorrow it's not going to happen for years uh but if we're on our way it is going to be a very pleasant journey you
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