저자: Daniel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현 투자 환경은 낙관하기 어렵고, 금리 고점 지속 시 은행·부동산 평가 조정 리스크가 남아 있어 신중해야 한다는 견해. 버크셔해서웨이: 3분기 영업이익은 50% 이상 증가했으나 철도·유틸리티 감소와 투자 평가손(약 200억 달러)으로 순이익은 부진. 버크셔는 올해 주식 순매도 상태이며 현금 약 1,700억 달러 이상으로 증가. 버핏의 대규모 자사주 매입 여력 대비 실제 매입은 약 70억 달러로 제한적이라고 평가. 애플: 매출·순이익·잉여현금흐름 감소에도 PER 약 27배로 밸류에이션이 매력적이지 않다고 봄. 주당순이익 증가는 자사주 매입 효과일 뿐이며, 밸류에이션 재조정 시 40~50% 하락 가능성 언급. 뱅크오브아메리카: 최근 2년간 약 40% 하락, PER 8배 이하. 자산 가치 대비 할인 거래는 기회일 수도, 아직 반영되지 않은 문제의 신호일 수도 있다고 언급. 지역은행 다수가 장부가 대비 큰 할인에 거래됨. 브룩필드: 운용자산 8,000억 달러 이상. 자체 부동산 약 200억 달러를 현금흐름 수익률 2~3%로 평가하는 것은 현금 4~5% 금리와 비교해 비합리적이며, 부동산 재평가(손실 반영)가 아직 이뤄지지 않았다고 주장. 전반적 입장: 금리 고점이 길어질수록 재평가 고통이 커질 것이며, 미국 주식 매수에 대해 보수적 태도. 보험사 등 일부 기회는 긍정적으로 언급. 빌 그로스의 지역은행 저평가 견해에는 우려 표명.
다듬은 글
hi my name is Daniel and you're watching unrivaled investing I wanted to walk you through my current thoughts on the investment climate by looking at it through the lens of four different companies we're talking about birkshire hathway Apple Bank of America and Brookfield these are major multi-billion dollar businesses we're going to start with Warren Buffett's Berkshire hathway which just reported their third quarter earnings when you look at their earnings very high level looks fantastic their operating earnings increased by over 50% year-over-year in part by better Insurance profitability where they said hey we got to make sure our Geico auto insurance that is profitable there's no reason that it shouldn't be and they're benefiting from higher interest rates as cash yields a higher yield they're able to get a better investment income that said their railroad business and utility businesses were both lower year over-year and so overall I look at their net earnings and it was actually not as compelling when you start factoring in these things as well as a sizable loss in their Investments where Berkshire Hathway's Investment Portfolio declined by over $20 billion in the most recent quarter causing their total net earnings to co negative when you look at what Warren Buffett has been up to you can actually see that year to date he's actually been a net seller of stocks he bought around $10 billion and he sold over $30 billion so let's say a net seller of over $2 billion in stocks and he did do a little bit of buying for you know buying back his own stock around $7 billion but still even of that he's been a seller and he's been building his cash pile now around $170 billion plus so you're looking at you know an investor that by by no means do I look at this and think oh Warren Buffett's finding lots of opportunities you know we do know that you know he bought some oil companies in the past but overall he's been a net seller now let's look at two of his largest Holdings that represent over 50% of his public Investment Portfolio that's Apple and Bank Bank of America you look at Apple stock Apple recently reported their 2023 earnings you're seeing a 3% decline in Revenue you're looking at decline in earnings you're looking at decline in free cash flow despite this it still trades at around 27 times earnings when I think about you know what's the range of potential returns over time this is via AI ticker chat which is free for the first month so check that out in the link below and leveraging AI to sort of get a range of what's what could be the revenue growth in the years ahead what's the profit margins what's the end multiple it really isn't that compelling you know and this is for across all US Stocks above $300 million market cap you can get this sort of framework leveraging Ai and it's just not you know up 40% down 50% if you have some sort of valuation reset so I I don't look at Apple when it's reporting you know a decline in sales a decline in profitability but earnings per share went up because they bought back a lot of stock I don't look at that as an extremely compelling setup i' would rather have something with strong organic growth going forward with that buyback and you know maybe that'll be the case going forward we'll see but I'm just not seeing it here with apple especially with its current valuation look at Bank of America the last two years it's lost nearly 40% of its value so there's clearly a red alert going on here with Bank of America I mean this is one of the largest banks in the world you shouldn't see a trading like this uh unless there's some sort of signal especially when you look at it and you go wait a second they're reporting strong results they're saying earnings you know is up over 10% they're talking about Book value growing nearly 10% yet it trades it under eight times earnings you know so Warren Buffett this is his second largest public holding be behind Apple so Apple's around 50% Bank of America is around 10% so either Bank of America is just you know a once in a-lifetime Opportunity trading at seven eight times earnings you know it's incredible bargain or there's a big problem here that's that investors are just starting to wake up to and that wall Street's starting to price in that investors should be mindful of because oftentimes you have pricing lead the underlying fundamentals so there's a question of what's what's potentially the problem here uh that that's causing Bank of America to sell off or what's what's sort of the signal here what are my underlying thoughts if you're looking to take charge of your investment Journey consider unrivaled investing.com for compelling investment ideas realtime portfolio updates and our exclusive Discord server available for premium annual subscribers that's at unravel investing.com so let's talk about Brookfield I'll go back to Bank of America in a second but let's look at Brookfield they are one of the largest asset managers in the world they manage over $ 800 billion doar they also have their own entity called Brookfield Corporation so I I don't want to confuse folks here I've I've written about this at great with greater detail at unrival investing.com I also did a prior video for public on YouTube about Brookfield two separate entities but they're they're largely owned by each other where you have Brookfield corporation that owns Investments for themselves so you you can think of they own this asset manager and this asset manager is also publicly traded this asset manager manages $800 billion plus across those assets they've also said you know what we want to cherry-pick the best things for ourselves that we're going to own and that's also owned in Brookfield Corporation so you know how to think about so they have these vehicles that they manage as well as Investments that they directly own for themselves with Brookfield and when you look at it across their various different Vehicles you could see that they own over $20 billion worth of property 14 billion in core 8 billion in transitional and devel velopment of which they're saying the annualized free cash flow for their core properties is under 500 million and the annualized cash flow for this other properties is under 200 million and the reason why that's super important for you to know is Brookfield is saying hey we own property and this is you would think the best property out there among their various different $800 billion do plus of Investments that they've chosen to own for themselves those properties those Investments those vehicles that they own they're saying the free cash flow yield on that they're marking it based on the figures I just showed you at effectively a 23% yield now the question is you know this this $20 billion in property versus $500 $600 million in cash flow that's how you get this 2 to 3% yield does that make any sense when you can get nearly 5% on cash I personally keep my cash at Interactive Broker see the link below does that make a lot of sense or does that mean that you're going to be seeing more pain to come and I think that's partly why this ties back to what we're seeing with Bank of America why does Bank of America trade at seven to eight times earnings I think a lot of folks are saying wait a second you're going to have major institutions major investors like Brookfield that hasn't yet properly accounted for the pain that you should Mark with higher interest rates if you have cash yielding four five% stocks in theory the earnings yield you know unless you have fantastic growth should probably be around 6 seven 8% and debt and real estate private Equity should all have some sort of Mark that's tied back to hey what sort of Premium should you get above that four or five% that you get on cash so that hasn't been yet reflected at least with Brookfield corporation's you know asset where they saying hey this is our property that we own they're saying hey we're still marking it at a 2 to 3% yield and you might have this situation where a lot of banks are going to effectively get put pushed back and say hey we're you know the owners of a property are going to say hey we're not we're not going to refy this unless you restructure our bonds unless you restructure this debt and I think the Bank of America is of the world and it's not just them you look at all these Regional Banks a lot of them are trading for you know cents on the Dollar on the dollar you know have book book value or 40 cents or 60 cents you know huge discounts relative to their reported Book value because of this uncertainty of will you have significant adjustments that haven't yet been priced in and this is part of the lag effect of raising interest rates is how long you know do you have to can you take until you realize reality of this oh my goodness this property is no longer worth a 2 to 3% yield like Brookfield is marking there which is a concern so I I think you're looking at a few different and I I think this is why it's super important for investors that are you know saying hey I'm actively buying you know right now or you know I'm a mega bull or I think you know we're in a new bull market I don't think that's the case and I think you're seeing a lot of data points here looking at each of these different things let's look at Buffett Buffett's a net seller he has a huge cash position sure he bought back a little bit of its stock but not a lot he did not use his elephant gun to buy back a lot of stock he bought seven billion he could if he really thought it was compelling he could probably buy 40 billion if he wanted to maybe even 50 billion in a year so by no means are you seeing strong conviction from arguably one of the greatest investors of all time Warren Buffett you look at Bank of America Bank of America is clearly sending some sort of signal here that there's a problem either going to happen or it's just an incredible opportunity I personally look at as there's there's some sort of issue here why it's down 40% in the last two years it goes back to Brookfield Brookfield you know saying hey our properties are worth a 2 to 3% yield on free cash flow when you can get four five% on cash that doesn't make sense to me and so I look at this and I'm I think the pain the repricing hasn't yet happened and I think we're getting closer to that point the longer rates stay where they are you look at Apple Apple trading at a high 20s times earnings multiple for declining revenue and profitability that doesn't make any sense to me I think that and one of the largest company in the various different indices I look at that as a neg you know another potential headwin so I I look at all these different elements you know should you you know stop buying US Stocks every investor is going to have their own in you know Journey some people like to you know buy every week every month I personally prefer more opportunity istic approach you know I prefer to say Hey you know is this really compelling right now maybe it's sold off 50% in the past month and you know a lot of large part of the thesis is there just the valuation cheaper so I think you need a every investor is going to have a different Journey I'm personally more cautious when I see all these different data points this does not you know seeing Warren Buffett being a huge net seller seeing Bank of America trade where it does these are red flags that investors should be mindful of and do think that there are better opportunities than these Mega companies you know like one of my largest companies is an insurance company you know one of my largest bets and I've C out to my subscribers it's up over 100% And I still think it has another 100% plus to go partly because the environment has become so much more favorable for certain insurance companies because now with interest now yielding something if you have a large cash portfolio hey your investment income as I showed with Berkshire is significantly better so I think there's there's just a there's a lot out there but you should be careful about what you're investing in right now and I think looking at banks for me you know I see some investors Bill gross is a famous investor he recently said that he he's finding value in Regional Banks I'm just it gives me great pause when I see that some major investors across various different assets are still marking their assets at a 2 to 3% yield if you have a different opinion I'd absolutely love to hear it I'm not trying to be a fearmonger I'm trying to share the various different data points I mean look if it was if if Burkshire was just posting fantastic results across the board and Brookfield was marking their real estate at an 8% and I'd say wow you know maybe this is really great maybe there's a opportunity that they're being conservative with their marks so I look I I think it's important to have a realistic appraisal and that's what I'm trying to do here if you have a different opinion I'd absolutely love to hear it in the comments below please make a point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for watching unrivaled investing
Comments 0