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hello and welcome to pro trader strategies market commentary for a Friday November the 16th my name is Eric Wilkinson and some of you may recognize me as the wolf Pam from CNBC Fox business or even the Wall Street Journal for my commentary on everything from economic to geopolitical market analysis please keep in mind that everything that we talked about in these market commentaries is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities or strategies at the end of the day I'm here to teach you some different strategies you can then implement into your portfolios but please do that in your own way also remember that past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results alright having all that out of the way let's get it on with some economic data cross the pond we got some CPI numbers out of Europe but remember they're flash estimates are the ones that are most important but Consumer Price Index for that number came in line with expectations then we come back over here to the United States and we've got our capacity utilization and industrial production now it's not one of the ones that is most widely looked at by the street if you will but I think it gives us a really good picture of what the manufacturer is thinking going forward that's why I believe this is more of a forward-looking data point than most other people do if the manufacturer is cutting back on industrial production then that means it's because they believe that the economy is slowing so industrial production came in line or came in slightly below expectations at point one percent expected to be 0.2 percent it is still positive but last month's number was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2% so that revision makes this all unchanged for the headline number so not in negative territory but just treading water capacity utilization came in at 78 point four which was in line with expectations last month number did get revised slightly higher so that's a good thing there and that's about it for the economic data points onto the overall markets we've got crude oil trying to push higher today you know this is one of the biggest slides crude oil seen in several years I can't remember exact date but it has been quite a few years to have this type of market movement crude oil this quickly going from $76 almost 77 dollars to $54 in the matter of less than two months less than 60 days just a straight down drop okay so it's got to be overdone to the downside at least for the near term now I tweet it out yesterday I think that $40 a barrel oil is probably closer to reality than what I was originally thinking was gonna stay between you know maybe high 50s mid sixties kind of thing I thought that that's where the wheelhouse should be now I think we're a little bit overdone to the downside but we could just get a dead cat bounce we've got a lot of resistance above us with these Fibonacci extensions and then the value area low for the point for the sorry the all I can think of a Stata minor for the the blue stottlemyre which is where it represents time and volume where the most time lines been spent we are extended quite dramatically outside that but you can see price has been being accepted down at these levels so we could create a big node here but crude oil a lot of supply out there doesn't look like a whole lot of demand so if there's somewhat of a bounce here it might very well be a dead cat bounce just be very aware of that alright let's talk about gold futures they're moving higher as usually we see a flight to safety here in gold but that tantrum with the equities is close to being over I think that the Fed is getting the idea that they need to pause that's what the market has been signaling I've been talking about this till I'm blue in the face that there has been several different indicators as to the Fed needs to pause and a lot of these are coming to fruition now and people are now even talking about it on Twitter besides me but we've got gold moving higher with a mixed bag in the equities at least last I checked Dow was down the rest of the market was up we've got Bitcoin moving higher something to talk about with Bitcoin that big liquidity event we talked about this big slide you know when we see that big kind of slot that slide we saw that usually is a liquidity of that now what people are going to do is they're gonna go to try to cover whatever they are least confident about or what has been underperforming the most and bitcoin is probably something in those portfolios that people are looking to cover and that was the catalyst we got that big sell-off yesterday made it look like a nice little bottom today though we are going to need to get and settle above yesterday's high which was 59 65 so 50 55 65 is the high here so some settlement above that would be quite nice for another $100 to the upside let's say in Bitcoin for a set of two make that look like a confirmed bottom looks like we found a lot of support remember at these levels miners aren't making money they're losing money which is going to lead me to down the road to what I was going to talk about for my earring straight at these levels miners maybe breaking even because the cost to produce a Bitcoin the energy amount and the cost them to build that Bitcoin is basically a break-even right around that where the point of control is right here so we are extended to the downside when they're not making money that means they're probably aren't producing as many bitcoins right they're gonna cut back on production if they cut back on production that means they're cutting back on supply and hopefully that would drive the price as higher is what you know conventional wisdom if you're bullish in Bitcoin would think so we need a confirmation to the upside on that trade in order to get any resume to the upside for the crypto all right now looking at bonds they're moving higher by close to a half a point we've been talking about this I think that the market has signaled to the Fed that they need a pause now whether or not the Fed is going to put that into and be able to process it is another story but we've got bonds moving higher on the expectation that interest rates aren't going to increase as rapidly as what was perceived about a week ago all right the VIX coming off a little bit today even though we have a mixed bag in the equities with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up only about 28 points right now literally five minutes ago it was up probably 60 points on the day we are right in and around where the most time in volumes been spent I don't think that there at this point is a lot of energy in order to get us out of this rut in a sense when we get close to that magnet which is the point of control where the most time and volume has been spent the market really wants to stick there and I don't think that there's been enough of the catalyst in order to separate us from this maybe if the feds governor's that start speaking started saying maybe we're going to hold off that could be the catalyst to spike us higher but at this point were right at the point of control it's going to get a little bit complacent here I think we'll start to see volatility really come out of these markets as we stay in and around these points of controls in the equities you can see a similar situation here in the Nasdaq albeit it is negative on the day by about as much as the Dow is up the point of control is resting right in and around this area we've got a lot of support below us for the Nasdaq we've got a bit of resistance to the upside on the Fibonacci extensions but all of that being said when we are right at the point of control there's a bit of complacency until we start getting a catalyst to get us out of that email ESP is negative on the day as you can see here but again I'm talking about we are at the point of control with all the equities across the board it's going to need a good kick in the pants to get out of there and that's going to have to do with economic data points maybe next week that we start to get and then emini S&P is on the 30-minute candle chart here each blue section is a day and that is the spot of mine anyway so overnight inventory got a little bit short coming into the day session we got that economic data points it wasn't terrible but it wasn't robust enough to get us out of this rut that I've been talking about but enough to give us a little bit of buoyancy in the equities as you can see coming in today's session peeling to the highs of the day basically retracing the entire day so far so right in the middle of the road right now with equities on the day yeah Nvidia I was talking about this with the bitcoins right bitcoins basically flatlined right around the break-even on producing one Bitcoin and the energy it costs to produce that Bitcoin so yesterday I tweeted out I'm going short NVIDIA calls because I don't really see a lot of these miners going out and buying tons of servers in order to mine bitcoins at the current levels that we're seeing in crypto that was what happened in Nvidia they even mentioned it in their call we got a big drop which helped me out because I sold the November 2 30 calls in there for a dollar 32 now I didn't say I was doing that exact strike on Twitter it's because you guys watching these daily market commentaries and the earnings no I'm shooting for that 16 delta call or put depending on my directional assumption this I would just slightly outside of that it was a 14 melt that just so you guys are aware of that I default to the 16 but you know if I get a nice chunk of change like a dollar 32 on a 14 Delta whom I say no and anyway I was able to buy those back for a penny put at resting order in before the open and somebody came in and slammed us with 250 contracts that's not what I had on but that's what somebody opened the trade with so got out of that for a nice little profit working a couple other trades to get out that aren't really close it's just a quiet Friday and figured I'd put in a bunch of these trades in order to be ahead of it if anything crazy were to happen or anything yet that I missed because with this xrt trade which is the ETF for the retail sector I've had a couple opportunities where it's gotten close not quite to my spot but it's been when I've gone back to look at it that I've realized that I may have missed a couple opportunities there I'm about 40 cents away from it right now and I'm doing the December you remember the 4552 call spread or sorry put spread in there and looking for the DA move closest we've gotten is about 46 I was looking for it to go down and print on those 45 puts because I'm long 52 puts short the 45 puts but if I get down there and get tested on those 45 puts I should be able to reach 50% of my max profit on that trade and so I paid three dollars and 20 cents for my max profit is about three dollars and 80 cents so if you figure a dollar 90 increase on the three dollars and 20 cents I bought it for it's about five dollars and ten cents five dollars and 20 cents I'm working a five dollar and twenty cent offer to get out of that it's trading around four dollars and eighty seven four dollars and ninety cents so I'm a little bit of way on that one but if I see a bit of a pullback risk in the later asked parts of the day I might be able to get that one and then also trying to get out of Under Armour ExxonMobil but like I said those aren't really close I've just had working orders in on them and that's about it other than check out yesterday's webinar on synthetic shorts in a bearish market these are great products for a bearish directional assumption in any underlying you will get dollar for dollar move as the stock so that's why it's synthetic every dollar move down we gain a dollar in our options strategy it acts exactly like the stock and I talked about the correct environment how to find the right strike locations to build this out to increase your probabilities of success so check it out a pro trader strategies calm on the synthetic shorts I also did one last week on the synthetic long call or a synthetic long stock as well so check both of those out great for a strategy of a person with a portfolio struggling to find enough money in their account to buy another stock well if you build your portfolio out with these type of strategies you would have enough for margin to increase your diversification and I talk about all that in that webinar so go check it out also give me a thumbs up thumbs down on this video like or dislike like if it's a dislike let me know what it is that you disliked about it alright so that's about it other than if you can't take that take it easy
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