저자: MadazMoney · 외국인
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결론: 실적 발표 직후 엔비디아 단기 급락 베팅으로 약 4,600달러 수익을 낸 사례를 소개하며, 고위험 매매임을 강조한다. [거래 내용] - 실적 발표 전후 시간외 거래에서 엔비디아(NVDA) 호가창의 매수 잔량 감소를 보고 숏 진입 - 약 196달러대 진입, 약 22초 만에 185달러 부근에서 청산해 약 13포인트 이익 - 이후 175달러 부근 지지선에서 롱으로 전환해 200주 매수 후 176.5달러 부근에서 청산, 추가 약 200달러 수익 - 총 수익 약 4,800달러(영상 제목은 4.6K) [분석 근거] - 4시간봉으로 큰 흐름, 1분봉으로 진입·청산 타이밍 확인 - 지지·저항선과 피보나치 되돌림 수준을 중첩해 목표 범위 설정(통상 10~15달러 변동 기대) - 암호화폐 약세, AMD 실적 부진 등을 하락 편향의 배경으로 언급 - EPS 상회에도 매출 미달로 주가가 하락할 수 있다고 설명 - 백테스트: 100주 소규모로 10개 실적 발표 종목을 검증해 약 90% 성공률 주장 [리스크·조건] - 호키 설정 기반의 초단타 매매로, 빠른 실행 속도가 필수 - 실제 체결은 1,000주 중 385주만 체결되는 등 유동성 제약 존재 - 출연자 본인도 '매우 위험하다', '손실 날 수 있다'고 경고 - 해당 거래는 단일 사례이며 수익 보장 근거가 없음 [향후 전망] - 엔비디아는 단기적으로 추가 하락 가능성을 언급했으나, 이후 지지선 부근 반등을 기대하며 롱 전환 - 실적 발표 종목 중심(FANG 계열, AMD 등)으로만 매매할 계획이라고 밝힘 - 이번 영상 이후 당분간 실적 플레이는 쉬겠다고 언급
다듬은 글
what's what he did it again another four thousand dollars in twenty two some seconds you know what you know what it is I figured it out guys it's a demo account he's paper trading or you know what you know it is he took gamble and he got lucky you know why do I even bother just just watch the video and figure it out for yourself just to see for yourself just just watch it just watch the video whoa what's up guys mad ass here with another live trading video just the way you guys like and of course just the way I like it as well because the because if I'm making these live trading videos that means I'm making some pretty nice trades and some fast money trades four thousand six hundred some odd dollars and again 22 seconds that must be my lucky number I should probably go and buy a lottery ticket and pick 22 as one of my numbers maybe I'll get rich and won't ever have to trade again but for the time being I'm still a trader and today I nailed yet another earnings play I won't go into too much detail gonna keep this video more short and sweet if you guys want to look more into the logistics behind how I set up the after-hours earnings trade go ahead and click on the link in the top right of this video that should be popping up it's gonna be the Apple earnings video where I go into a little bit more detail of how I set it up and basically just to summarize I opened up a four hour chart because I get to see the pre market and after hours in addition to just the big overall picture itself you could pick whatever you want I just happen to go with the 4-hour chart it helps me see the wide range where the stock can potentially move the daily chart also quite as help was quite helpful as well but it doesn't include the pre market in after-hours so that's why I have it on the small chart not the big chart in the main chart I'm gonna be looking at is the 4-hour chart and of course you got to have the 1-minute chart not the three not the three that you're used to but the 1-minute chart because these trades are so quick 22 seconds as you as you guys have noticed on the Apple and also on this video as well you'll see three minutes simply too big of a timeframe not enough information so one minute is actually the most appropriate one for this particular case so as you can see I have it right here label the major supports and resistances as for some of these other indicators I use I use the Fibonacci retracement you can draw them many different ways there's no right or wrong way to do them as long as you get the big picture again I basically just draw them from the highs of the recent move in this case the all-time highs in CNN video and then I used about light I think the 52 week lows or something like that but you could do whatever you want you draw multiple retracements and find some sort of convergence and see if there's any levels that are seen that come up in multiple Fibonacci retracement drawings as well as support and resistance a lot of times they line up together they coincide so usually they would help in this particular case with NVIDIA it typically makes around like a ten fifteen point move so I'm expecting right now at Nvidia around two you know around the 200 area I'm expecting this thing to pop around to 215 and it would wear a tank around a 185 you can see the corresponding support resistance levels as well as the Fibonacci retracements as well so without further ado I'll go ahead and just jump straight to the point no point dilly dallying guys let's watch the video we're gonna pick it up right here about 30 seconds to earnings so obviously that's not my voice that's actually the voice of Charlie from Ben Zynga Ben Zynga Charley as he's affectionately known so I'm subscribed to Ben's lingo Pro which is again to the newsfeed it's probably one of the better the best new to news feeds out there which is why I use them and they are very instrumental and helping me listen to the earnings report that as it comes out obviously because I don't have time to scroll through and compare they're all the EPS the revenues and the guidance and all that so I just have the squawk box feature from the Benzinger Pro funded Benzing app from news feed until you've been Zynga Charlie he reads it to me and I go ahead and act accordingly and and make the trade so again if you guys are interested link is in the description preventing your pro they recently just took about 40 percent off I believe their essential package which is their middle package Matt asks 25 all caps is the promo code for 25% off like in the description now 5 seconds to earnings and media releases earnings at 4:20 Eastern Time so again what am I looking for guys I'm looking for the bids to drop off at the level - okay I had a comment on the last video what are you looking at what are you looking at using your mouse pointer what the hell are you talking about I'm looking at the level - guys this is the level - this it's called the level - this is the bids these are the ass okay bitch-ass offers whatever you want to call them okay so what I'm looking at is I'm looking at to see I'm looking at the level - to see if the bits fall off for the shorts trade or if the ass starts thinning out for the long trade so I basically have hotkeys setup hotkeys for the short hotkeys for the long and then I also have hotkeys to exit to exit too long and hotkeys to exit too short so these are all hotkeys it's way too too fast to do it with your you know your normal punching in the price it's not gonna work as I mean as fast as I am with this with my hundred and twenty-five words per minute typing skills I still can't do it so I rely on hotkeys for this one and again as a disclaimer I said this in the last video in case you guys didn't watch the last video I don't want to hear in the comments I don't want to hear it on Twitter or Instagram whatever just just just don't yell at me if you guys tried this trade ohm and lose your ass because as a disclaimer it's extremely risky and it requires you to be extremely fast if you're not fast enough you're going to lose your ass point point mate alright guys here we go you see NVIDIA you see the bits fall off 196 you see me hit the bid let's see what happens so I want to pause it right here and see and make a point that although it shows that I'm down unrealized I'm actually not down at all on the trade for whatever reason - trader Pro uses you know the nearest bit nearest offer in this case because I'm short with with the number next to it that's not 0 so you see the size being shown as 0 they don't use those to calculate the unreal eyes they only go where the 1 is so wherever there's a size of 0 they don't use that to calculate calculate - unreal eyes they use the nearest offer with a size of at least one showing so I'm actually was never down on this trade if I were to actually cover right here for whatever reason I would actually you know at worst breakeven or something just just want to put that out there so they actually never down in the street so I'm in here 196 tried field go try to get into thousand shares not enough liquidity only filled 385 shares but you'll see it'll still pay off very nicely in a matter of seconds so I got in if you look at the time stamp II was actually around 400 for for 2004 seconds so let's see how long is late this trade less boom up already huge on the trade as you can see I have a line there I'm expecting remember I told you guys I was expecting about a 15 10 to 15 dollar move in either direction as Nvidia typically makes that kind of move so I'm looking at around the 185 ish area cover and you'll see me actually get that in there right now and all covered pretty much could you'll see here basically a bottom tick right there as you can see basically I got a bottom tick here on Nvidia that's uh it'll bounce right here and right after the bed after the bottom tick the stock did bounce a little bit it went a lot lower than I expected but I got it I got my exit okay so I was actually very happy with this trade it went a lot lower than I expected again and video typically makes around a ten to fifteen dollar move I wasn't expecting this thing ended up going down at like 170 or something and I believe it went down even further to 163 or something like that after like several hours after the fact but in any case I got my trade that captures thirteen points guys and if you look at the trade again it was like what 22 seconds I got in at for 2004 got out for 2004 22 6 I believe so and 22 seconds seems to be my lucky number so got what I wanted I did the analysis my analysis told me that I should be covering based off of historical data I'm not gonna take any chances not gonna gamble sure maybe I could hold under chairs or something like that but hey you know what I got my move 13 points right I was expecting 10 to 15 I got 13 points pretty much spot-on so Nvidia you'll see they'll end up going a little bit lower I do have a support level drawn here around the 175 ish area and you'll see me flip to the long side for a bounce as the stock pretty much has dropped around 30 points trying to take a starter here of Nvidia long don't get filled shares decide to cancel the order here low mountain without me but I see I still want my 175 that's ideal that's where I have my support level drawn as well as a Fibonacci level and also I want to make a note that I was a little bit short biased going into this because obviously kryptos was something that was a huge catalyst for these graphics cards these GPUs Nvidia as well as AMD and AMD had terrible earnings that completely crashed pretty hard although it recovered as of late but that gave me a reason to be a little bit short bias on NVIDIA and also Bitcoin did crack a critical support level just yesterday I believe and on top of that you know it's just this this discharge just not looking good I mean if you were to look at the daily chart you can see it's pretty much broken broken so many support levels and yeah it's just not looking good so a little bit short bias on this a little bit of a concern that the move could've been baked in but in any case you always gotta obey the price action price action dictates everything you saw the bits fell off there it was a short made the trade nailed nailed the win forty six hundred bucks twenty two seconds so I'm now currently long as you can see I'm always in smaller and the secondary trades to protect my profits on the first trade so even in this thing what I'd like to dump into the abyss it would be that bad so NVIDIA currently at that critical support level so there we go added another 100 shares oh I got 200 shares gonna sell the ensuing immediate pop just to be safe to lock in some wallet patter gain some big max as I always say here we go should be selling in around one seventy six point five I believe see we get that pop you do see there never go sell that sold it so there was a little bit of a sketchy action there it looked like it had a chance to go a little bit lower there was a little bit old wall around 175 on the offer if you guys slow it down and watch it again you'll see that there was a little bit of a wall there around 175 but I was only in like a hundred shares at the time and it eventually two hundred shares so I was willing to see if it was gonna gonna hold stock down as you can see eventually got taken out popped over 176 to 177 took took it off one seventy six point five and another two hundred bucks to the day so that's 4,800 bucks guys in about three minutes almost exactly three minutes and I mean you can't you can't you can't make you can't be happier about you can't have a better trade I mean seriously it's just it's amazing I mean those of you that think that I got lucky or I gambled I mean I just pulled it off two times in a row I did backtest this strategy with smaller size 100 shares I did it on 10 different 10 different earnings plays and I was actually successful on 90% of them so I did back this as a small size first before jumping in with bigger size as you can see it's paying off pretty well so I'm gonna go ahead and rewind this footage again just so you guys can see exactly that moment slow it down yeah and I also want to add that I did you do notice that Ben Zynga said that an Nvidia did beat on EPS but they missed on revenues again those of you that are near earnings that don't understand how they work sometimes you'll you'll hear that their company beat on earnings but yet the stock still tanks yeah I always understand that the market has a different reaction to certain different types of news okay so if the price action is telling you that the stock is gonna go down but you're hearing that the stock beat on earnings you're probably not you're probably your best interests still be shorting so it seemed goes for when you're training a stock and you're reading a news oh that sounds like good news why is it why is the stock going down you know there's always a hidden agenda the guys with deep pockets behind the scenes they control the price action so the best thing they always look for is the tape the chart and the price action you know that tells you the whole story price action never lies it's live it's not subjective price action is king for me so let's go ahead and watch this one more time but this time I'm gonna watch it at half speed so let's see what happens you guys can see exactly the moment the bids drop off here we go much tape right there right there you see that that's exactly the moment yeah slam that hockey and you can see I get in right there didn't get my fulfil maybe I was a half second too late maybe if I was a half second faster would have gotten my thousand shares I'd be up thirteen thousand dollars right now but you know what maybe something for me to work on made me up not as fast as I think I am there we go lower the volume it sounds kind of funny now let's see if you guys can pinpoint the exit see that you could find which tie at which moment does the tape turn pretty much really closer right there so I pretty much nailed the bottom there again the stock did go to 170 but you know I'm only here to predict that first initial move I don't want to risk an epic bounce after being out four thousand dollars in 22 seconds I go ahead and lock it in right when I see the tape turn you see that the bits started supporting it a little bit there on that one 84 183 184 185 Area C the asking outside 187 so just don't want to take any chances basically bottom take that part of the candle that part of the move so I'm happy about that no problem so yeah now it's back down so as you can see just played it safe locked in the big gains that's pretty much it guys simple as that did it two times in a row Apple and NVIDIA unfortunate this is probably the last earnings play I will be watching for a while I usually only trade the Fang stocks for earnings and in addition to Nvidia I also try to trade AMD but I only trade the ones that have potential to make a lot of moves and the ones that are liquid after-hours so I only stick with the Fang stocks Nvidia and also AMD but I'm not so sure about AMD moving forward but hey hopefully you guys learned a thing or two if you guys liked this video of course like share subscribe I don't know why you guys have an array just just just do it just just do it anyways stay tuned for the next live training video you guys know it's gonna be coming at any time see you guys soon you
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