Taiwan Semiconductor Company Feels Confident About its Long-Term Prospects | TSM Stock Analysis

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TSMC는 2023년 공급과잉으로 어려웠으나 2024년 가동률 상승으로 개선 기대. N3 도입으로 2024 매출총이익률 2~3%p 하락 가능하나 장기 53%+ 가능. 2024 자본지출 280~320억달러 유지, 미국 애리조나 공장 등 해외 확장. AI·HPC 수요 수혜, 2023~2027년 미달러 기준 연 15~20% 성장 전망. 지정학 리스크로 주가 상승이 제한적이었으나 장기 보유 관점에서 매수 추천 유지.

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01. hey everyone Taiwan semiconductor had a difficult year in 2023 as over Supply in the industry from leftover inventory crimped customer demand however management thinks 2024 is looking to be much better than 2023 so I thought I'd discuss the details in this video here the company's CFO said that looking to 2024 on the plus side they expect their utilization rate to rise in 2024 as our business recovers right I mentioned already 2023 was a difficult year for TSM 2024 is shaping to be a better year and utilization rate refers to the manufacturing capacity and how much of it is used if you're using up a small portion or a small smaller portion of your manufacturing capacity that's an opportunity lost because you've already got the capacity there if you utilize more of it that's beneficial to the business utilizing close to 100% is almost impossible for most companies a rule of thumb is that if you're utilizing about 80% of Your Capacity That's The Sweet Spot that's the spot you're getting the maximum output at the lowest average cost let's just say so anything above that you're starting to reach higher costs and anything below that you're not maximizing the output so roughly 80% is The Sweet Spot and TSM looks to be doing better or expected to do better in 2024 of course N3 the nanometer the 3 nanometer technology is expected to dilute their gross margin by about 3 or 4 percentage points in the full year 2024 as the revenue contribution from this next generation technology will be much higher than in 2023 this is the latest gen technology and remember the company invested in N2 2 nanometer technology that's going to be coming out sometime in 2025 the CFO goes on to say that uh longer term a gross profit margin of 53% or even higher is possible so for 2024 gross profit margin will remain relatively flat maybe down or two percentage points because of the impact of that next Generation technology and its lower gross profit margin as it ramps up but longer term the company feels a gross profit margin of 53% is possible that would be a really strong gross profit margin for a company that is Hardware manufacturing right you see these kinds of gross profit margins well software companies can earn gross profit margins in the 70s 80% range but for manufacturing companies for Hardware companies a gross profit margin of 50 anything above 50% is looking at really really strong and 60 and above is Elite level gross profit margin so in 2023 the company spent $3.4 billion on capital expenditure a little bit lower than the 32 billion they had thought they were going to spend on capital expenditure for 20 24 they expect to spend roughly the same as they did in 2023 on capex they give a range of between 28 billion and 32 billion so at the midpoint of 30 billion would be roughly where they were in 2023 one of the areas that TSM is in investing in is geographic expansion they're trying to increase their manufacturing footprint outside of Taiwan just to reduce the geopolitical risk and also to to take advantage of incentives from governments worldwide looking to bring and onshore some manufacturing to their country and so they're capitalizing on that in the US in particular they're looking to add a manufacturing facility in Arizona they've been uh working with the US government trying to get their incentives and all of that in line now management did say it's going to be a little bit more expensive to have manufacturing outside of Taiwan but they feel the proximity to their customers and the decreasing geopolitical risk right diversifying away from Taiwan those factors more than offset the slightly higher cost of manufacturing outside of Taiwan so at TSM a higher level of capital expenditure is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years that was hard to say in the past few years we have sharp ly increased our capex spending in preparation to capture or harvest growth opportunities from the personal computers artificial intelligence and 5G Mega Trends and they've done a great job of that right uh TSM has put themselves on the Leading Edge on The Cutting Edge of this semiconductor technology and they Supply some of the world's strongest AI companies including Nvidia AMD and so they've done a great job in putting themselves in position to capitalize on these opportunities and they continue to spend aggressively right $30 billion in capital expenditure that's a lot of money being allocated to increasing your capacity making sure that it's the latest generation technology investing in research and development and that gives benefits for future years in fact despite a challenging 2023 TSM feels their revenue remains well on track to grow between 15% and 20% compound annual growth over the next several years in US dollar terms that's a really strong growth rate as well you've got a company here generating operating profit margins north of 40% and forecasting close to 20% growth over the next several years so they've got really strong prospects and it's no wonder why I've recommended Taiwan semiconductor stock as a buy now the stock price hasn't exploded the way that other semiconductor stocks may have or the way that Nvidia may have and one of the main reasons is that geopolitical risk I mentioned earlier still the company performance- wise is really strong this might be one where investors need to not rely on the valuation increasing or the market realizing the value increase but investing in Taiwan semiconductor and waiting for the long term as the company generates these strong levels of cash flow and profitability and then the company itself will return Capital to shareholders through dividends and share BuyBacks and thereby giving investors that return on investment even if the market still is hesitant about TSM stock the company organically will earn those profits and cash flow and return that Capital to shareholders over the long term so I still have this stock rated as a buy it's been rated as a buy according to my ratings for some time now so this isn't a new uh rating or an upgrade it's just continuation of my previous rating where I had recommended the stock as a buy