저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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TSMC는 AI 반도체 핵심 공급사로 3나노 기술 수요가 강하고, 2023년 매출 감소(-8.7%)에도 점유율을 높였다. 영업이익률 41.6%, ROE 28.1%로 수익성이 우수하며 재고일수 감소와 강한 현금흐름이 긍정적. 2024년 반도체 업계 두 자릿수 성장이 예상되며, 2나노 개발을 지속 중이다. 지정학 리스크는 존재하나 밸류에이션과 전망을 근거로 매수 의견을 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Taiwan Semiconductor Company is an interesting one because of the central role it plays in the development of artificial intelligence it's a supplier to some of the biggest AI companies in the world including Nvidia and AMD so in this video I'm going to take a deeper dive into Taiwan semi and understand what's going on with TSM stock so let's Jump Right In aiwan semic CFO saying that the fourth quarter Revenue increased by 13.6% in US dollar terms and the fourth quarter business was supported by the continued strong ramp of their industry leading 3 nanometer technology while gross profit margin decreased by 1.3% sequentially to 53% that was primarily due to the ramping of this next level Innovative technology when this technology matures the impact on the gross profit margin will be positive instead of negative moving on he says that operating profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points slightly ahead of their guidance and they still have an excellent operating profit margin of 41.6% that's among the tiers of the excellent companies in the world today very few companies have operating profit margins over 40 % and the best operating profit margin is at 67% so you can see that they're excellent in terms of operating profit margin and this is especially impressive given that they are a hardware technology company a Manufacturing Company generating these kinds of profitability so it it's a testament to how good they are at running their business return on Equity at 28.1% was also excellent the rule of thumb I look at here with return of equity is for it to be larger than the cost of capital and it for Taiwan semi it's much larger than the cost of capital for mature companies that generate strong cash flow like TSM the cost of capital weighted average cost of capital is generally 15% or below and that's being really really generous there with the 15% it's usually much lower than that so its return on Equity is nearly twice that of it cost of capital again those are estimates made up by me in terms of the weighted average cost of capital but I just wanted to provide a point of reference when you're comparing the return on Equity Advanced Technologies defined as 7 nanometer and Below accounted for 67% of WF for Revenue the company is still generating revenue from older Technologies not all Technologies require the latest and greatest some companies are using the old Technologies to develop things that don't require the latest and greatest uh chips to be used so TSM still generating revenue from those older Technologies providing investors continuous Revenue even from old gen Tech now on a full year basis Advanced Technologies accounted for 58% of wafer Revenue that was up from 53% in 2022 and for 2024 it's going to be even more because this 3 nanom meter technology is proving to be highly in demand it's highly sought after now contribution by platform personal computers accounted for 43% of their revenue in 2023 smartphones 38% Internet of Things 8% and Automotive 6% now you can understand why TSM had a difficult year in 2023 there was elevated levels of inventories of personal computers at the same time the personal computer industry slowed down in 2023 smartphone shipments also didn't do great in 2023 the combination of those factors led to a difficult year for TSM in 2023 company has a strong balance sheet cash and marketable securities of 55 billion in dollar terms and another good news is that their days of inventory declined by 11 days to 85 days keeping skinny inventory levels is the best way that companies like TSM well I shouldn't say best but is one of the ways that companies like TSM can improve profitability and improve margins and improve cash flow you don't want to have inventory sitting around because while that inventory is sitting around not only is it not being sold but it's taking up space you have to pay to store it and some of that goes bad right let's imagine you have inventory stored you're not keeping all of that inventory safe all of the time every time you try to move it there is the potential of some of them getting damaged stolen and so all of those reasons contribute to better performance when inventory is moving faster and going from production to customer hands and not getting stored too much right of course there is some level of inventory that's necessary just so you have some inventory on hand so that you could get it to customers when they want it but too much inventory is not desired so you got to find the right balance between not not enough and too much inventory and right now at 85 days it seems a little elevated so getting a decline in that is good news for TSM right now they generated about 395 billion in Taiwan dollars in cash from operations and spent 170 billion in cap X the company I mean in US terms that's about30 billion US the company spends aggressively on capital expenditure to make sure they have the latest technology advantage and they've been able to do that continue spending on research and development to stay ahead of the game they don't rest on their Laurels they don't rest on the fact that they're ahead right now they want to continue to be ahead they want to continue developing the latest generation technology and they've been really good at that they've developed that process where they can continue upgrading and improving their technology improving the performance of their chips so I mentioned 2023 was a challenging year for the global semiconductor industry but our technology leadership enabled tsmc to outperform The Foundry industry their revenue decreased by 8.7% in 2023 down down to 69 billion and it was a tough year but TSM gained market share despite the fact that it was a tough year for the global semiconductor industry 2024 is shaping to be a much much better year double digigit growth expected for the semiconductor industry and for Taiwan semiconductor as well so a strong bounceback year is expected for the semiconductor industry but more specifically for TSM in 2024 and I'll end with this final comment here to extend their technology leadership they continue to spend money on research and development for their 3 nanometer and 2 nanometer development despite a lower Revenue base in 2023 this 2 nanometer technology is expected to be introduced in 2025 with production in 2026 so they just launched this uh 3 nanometer and they're already working on the 2 nanometer just to give you an idea of how excellent they are at continuously developing Next Generation technology so their operating profit margin decrease to 42.6% and still it's a really strong operating profit margin despite the decrease in 2023 this is expected to improve in 2024 and they spent $30 billion US 3.45 billion US dollar in capital expenditure so despite that 30 billion they still generated strong free cash flow so they're not sacrificing on capital expenditure on research and development even during tough times they continued to allocate investment in that area so that when the industry turns around they'll be ready to capitalize on that growth and they are indeed ready to capitalize on that growth they're in a great position to have TSM stock rated as a buy there are risks namely geopolitical risks associated with the company still despite that I think given the valuation and the prospects I think TSM stock is a buy according to my ratings right now again soon
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