저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 AI 버블 붕괴를 경고하며 AI 관련 대형주 대신 저평가된 종목(페이팔, 메르카도리브레, 어도비, 룰루레몬, 조에티스, 비바시스템즈)을 매수 중이라는 내용. 근거로 벤처캐피털의 87%가 AI로 몰리는 현상과 1999년 닷컴 버블 패턴 유사성을 제시. 페이팔 PER 8배·잉여현금흐름 55억 달러, 어도비 매출총이익률 89% 등 펀더멘털을 강조. 다만 영상은 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시하고 있으며, 자막상 'Michael Berry'는 Michael Burry의 오기로 보임.
다듬은 글
Michael Berry, the man who predicted and rode the 2008 housing crash , is back in the spotlight, shouting from the rooftops that the AI bubble is about to burst with the same violence as the dot-com bubble. Guess what he's doing on the other side? Buy stocks. He's not just sitting on cash waiting for the end of the world, he just added three completely new positions, added to two stocks he already owned, and there's even a high-conviction stock he's keeping an eye on.
In this video, we won't analyze these companies to give you a solid idea of what to buy. Absolutely not. Always remember that this is not financial advice. The purpose of this video is purely educational, so before revealing Michael Berry's thesis and seeing which companies he's currently investing in, I'd like to ask you to support our investor community.
Leave a like and subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any of our detailed analyses in the future. Don't forget to check out the description, where you'll find various bonuses and promotions active just for this period, such as the completely free PDF on company analysis or the exclusive discount valid only for the month of July of up to 60% on the Investing Pro platform, and an additional 15% discount dedicated to the community by entering the promo code I've left below the video.
To understand why Michael Berry is buying companies that seem forgotten by the market, we need to understand a concept he himself cited to describe his thesis: the whale pool . When a giant whale dies in the ocean, its body slowly sinks to the deepest, darkest depths. It's there where no one looks, that immense body creates and nourishes an entire ecosystem of marine creatures for years.
Creatures that no one took into account while all eyes were fixed on the whale swimming so majestically on the surface. And in the stock market for Barry, the whale is artificial intelligence. He talks about stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, Micron, AMD and other tech giants. For him today all the attention and all the capital of the masses are concentrated up there, chasing astronomical valuations.
And meanwhile, extraordinary companies with rock-solid businesses are literally being ignored and left to sink to the bottom of the ocean just because they don't have the magic word artificial intelligence printed on their foreheads. Basically, their prices are collapsing not because the company is going bankrupt, but because the masses are looking elsewhere.
And it is exactly there, at the bottom of the ocean, that Michael Barry is filling his bags. In a post on Substack he cites a thought-provoking fact. 87% of venture capital today goes into AI-related companies. The exact same pattern as in 1999, when old economy companies were being discarded en masse to chase the internet and telecommunications.
And we all know how that story ended. By the way, I also have a profile on Substack that I recently opened and if you'd like to follow me there too and support my work, sign up because it's completely free. Let's start by sifting through the main companies in Michael Berry's strategy and see if the numbers really hold up when we filter them through the Investing Pro analysis platform.
The first stock the longtime investor decided to bet on is PayPal. For him, the market has been behaving as if we've been watching PayPal's wake for years, but as Berry cynically notes in one of his articles, "I was at the funeral, but the body is not in the coffin." PayPal stock has taken a beating in recent years, largely due to increasing competition in the digital payments space from Apple Pay, Google Pay, Stripe, and many other platforms, but let's also take a look at its fundamentals.
Last year, PayPal generated total revenue of $33 billion and a gross profit margin of 41%, but more importantly, if we look at its cash flow, we can see that it has free cash flow of $5.5 billion ready to spend. And if we look at the valuations, its price- earnings multiple is even lower than the sector average.
We are talking about a very low ratio of 8x, while the sector is trading above 11 times earnings. It has a business valuation that discounts decline, but in reality the company is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than before. And management continues to buy back its own shares from the market, generating an incredible 15% buyback yield, delivering value to shareholders.
Let's face it, if we hid PayPal's name from its revenue chart and looked at its performance quarter after quarter, we'd only see an upward trend, and the average person looking at a chart like that without a name would probably say, "This is a healthy company that continues to grow." Instead, because PayPal is written on it , the market goes into panic.
At this time, PayPal has simply become unpopular on the stock exchange. All the attention and even the mass enthusiasm is directed towards artificial intelligence companies, ignoring the fundamentals and discounted prices. And according to the protagonist of the big gamble, this is precisely where the real opportunity lies for those who know how to use their heads and not just their guts.
Another stock that has recently come under Michael Berry's scrutiny is Mercado Libre, the undisputed king of e-commerce in South America, also known as the Amazon of Latin America. It manages online sales, digital payments and a huge proprietary logistics network. Yet, despite being a revenue-generating machine, the stock has fallen by 24% over the last 12 months .
Why? Guess what, it doesn't sell microchips for artificial intelligence. This company also ended up straight at the bottom of the ocean, ignored by the masses who prefer to chase the usual suspects. It must be said, however, that despite the recent declines, the stock's valuations remain quite high.
The Investing Pro platform reports that its price-to-earnings ratio is 47 times, not exactly a discount, and the company's profitability has declined in recent years due to the massive investments the company is making to expand throughout Latin America. But if we look at the total revenue trend, we see that they are growing at a very high rate, comparable to a technology company.
We're talking about an annual increase of almost 40%. I remind you that thanks to the channel's collaboration with investing.com, you can get an exclusive discount valid only for the month of July on the Investing Pro platform of up to 60% and also an additional 15% discount with the promo code investiremoneypro.
For those interested, I'll leave the link directly in the video description. Michael Berry began accumulating shares of Mercado Libre when the price had slipped into the $1,600 per share zone. Its investment thesis is simple: on the one hand, it sees the international discount. Being a company focused on the Latin American market, many international investment funds avoid it due to exchange rate risk or the economic instability of some regions, and this creates inefficiency.
The price drops not because the company is doing badly, but because of geographic fear and then sees real growth versus fantastic growth while many companies and AI promise stellar profits in the future, Mercado Libre already makes profits today in the real world by delivering packages and processing payments for millions of people every single second.
Now let's move on to Adobe, which has fallen 42% this year. We're talking about Photoshop, Illustrator, and other global software on which the entire premium creativity industry is based. Today, the masses fear that generative AI could destroy Adobe's business, but big- money bettor Michael Berry sees it the other way around.
He called Adobe a clear and deep value opportunity and went out and bought its shares at bargain prices. Let's look at the numbers in detail. The company has a gross profit margin of 89%, an absurd profitability. Virtually for every dollar it takes in, nearly 90 cents is pure gross profit. But above all, this high margin has remained stable and even constant over the years.
Let's talk about the last 10 years. If we look at total revenues, however, we see double-digit growth practically every year and it doesn't seem to be slowing down even in the most recent quarters. There are consistent increases of 10 and 12% compared to the quarters of previous years. Additionally, in response to the AI challenge, their revenue from direct AI products, such as their Firefly engine, increased 50% quarter over quarter.
What Wall Street doesn't like is that the company has decided to adopt a strategy of initially giving away some AI functions through free models to attract the creators of tomorrow, postponing price increases. Analysts don't like this uncertainty, but Berry, on the contrary, bought. Three other recent bets by Michael Berry are called Lululemon, Zoetis and Viva Systems.
Lululemon Athletica is a premium sportswear brand that has fallen more than 50% in the last 12 months. And Berry built a position in the stock around $120 a share, capitalizing on the fact that the exchange was trading an iconic brand with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of more than 22% at the same multiples as a stagnant industrial company.
Then Zoetis, a company that produces medicines, drugs, and vaccines for animals, both pets like dogs and cats, but also livestock . Does this have anything to do with artificial intelligence? Absolutely nothing and that's exactly why Michael Berry loves her. He called this company a fat pitch, a perfect launch.
This is a metaphor from baseball: an opportunity so obvious and clear that it only requires the patience to wait for it. The company also offers a dividend yield of 2.7%, which has grown for over 13 consecutive years. And finally, Veeva Systems, a company that operates in such a specific niche that almost no one knows about it.
Veeva creates software and cloud solutions specifically for pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. In practice, if a large multinational needs to develop a new drug and pass controls, it uses Veeva programs to manage all the data and even the laboratories. The stock has fallen by 30% this year, but Berry responded directly to this fear by buying shares in the company.
The question for those who follow the markets remains open. Is Berry right to bet against the AI euphoria by betting on these forgotten names, or is he simply trying to replicate his most famous trade from the past once again? Let me know in the comments below. If this video was helpful or informative for any of you, please like it and join this community of conscious investors.
As always, thank you for watching and I'll see you in the next video. Hi everyone.
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