저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥 단기 조정 가능성을 언급하며 11,200선을 주요 지지로 봄. 반도체 SOXX는 385달러 저항 유지 여부를 주시하고, 나스닥은 300달러 부근을 저점선으로 봄. 3배 레버리지 상품은 기초지수 기준으로 진입 타이밍을 잡아야 한다고 강조. 현재 시장은 박스권 횡보로 보고 자금이 몰리는 섹터에 선별 투자 권장. 채권은 금리 고점 신호로 헤지 수단으로 언급. 테슬라 175달러 저항, 애플 150달러 재진입 가능 구간 언급. 단기 양방향 대응과 사전 매수 가격대 설정을 제안.
다듬은 글
This is technical . As you can see, the Nasdaq has hit a certain upward trend and is currently in a zone where a short-term correction is possible. So, what we need to watch out for is predicting how far the correction might go if one occurs, so that we can respond accordingly. In other words, it would be good to know how far the price should drop to fall into an appropriate range for a correction without breaking the bullish trend.
Personally, I believe the 11,200 level will serve as a major support zone for the Nasdaq. Therefore, if this level holds some support, even if the rally concludes and the stock price falls, it could be considered a suitable zone for additional buying. Conversely, if this 11,200 level is completely breached, it means we need to prepare for that moment.
So, please keep these points in mind. After all, our stock prices don't keep rising indefinitely while we are forming a bullish trend. That's right. Anyway, it will move while forming waves, and at that time, there is a high possibility that it will touch around the 11,200 level. Also, since it is not an unconditional rise and the market itself is currently quite mixed, it is entirely possible that it will move sideways while touching this level.
Therefore, if you keep both of these possibilities in mind while observing the market and responding accordingly, I think we can view the market while managing our mental state at an appropriate level, rather than falling into unnecessary fear. Now, regarding Sample 500, based on the current situation, it seems that the upper 3,800 level will act as a major support zone along the trend line.
So, if you watch whether support appears around the 13,800 or 3,900 levels during the process of forming waves, I think it will definitely be easier to predict the trend to some extent. If the trend does not necessarily rise and touches the 3,800 level again, then the trend itself will enter a sideways phase for a considerably long period.
In other words, as you can see, the lows and highs are not rising but rather appearing to be maintained to some extent. Rather than viewing the current market as a bull market, it might be more accurate to consider it a sideways market within a trading range. Keeping this in mind, the most appropriate investment strategy in a range-bound market is to invest in sectors where money is flowing.
In other words, since this involves carefully selecting and investing in specific sectors, you need to focus on this aspect. You should carefully observe where money is flowing in; sending out scouts to those areas and increasing your capital if an upward movement occurs would be a good way to aim for a profit.
For the semiconductor index, if you look at the current situation, the major resistance level for the semiconductor SOXX is around $385. Therefore, you need to watch how long the $385 level is maintained. If it holds, it will likely move upward again. So, even if a slight short-term correction occurs this time, if support emerges in the $385 zone, you can expect sufficient short-term profits from semiconductor stocks by increasing your position weight there.
Therefore, regarding these key points... You need to set low points in advance to some extent so that you can establish stop-loss lines or make additional purchases for leveraged products, such as triple-leverage products, or products that are highly sensitive to trends. Now, making additional purchases is extremely important because, ultimately, if we simply hold onto our positions during every wave without knowing the timing to buy or sell, there will be a situation where someone makes a 40% profit while someone else sells and only sees a 10% profit.
Therefore, the key point we need to focus on is catching this. In other words, we must prepare in advance to buy, not sell, at this point. So, you need to identify major resistance and support lines in advance and increase your position size at these points to maximize profits at the top of the wave.
We must proceed with buying and selling while understanding these aspects. Now, regarding the current situation, the semiconductor index is at 385, and the Nasdaq moves similarly. Therefore, for the Nasdaq as well, around $300 would be the major low line. So, we need to keep these two low lines in mind.
Keep that in mind. When investing with 3x leverage, it is always more accurate to determine your buy and sell timing based on the position of the underlying index. Ultimately, because there is a discrepancy due to the 3x leverage, relying solely on this for investment decisions may not be accurate. As I mentioned last time, the semiconductor sector has recovered more than half of its previous low.
However, if you look at SOXX, it has n't even recovered 30% of its previous high, let alone more than half. Therefore, because such discrepancies can occur, it is better to identify the position by looking at the underlying index rather than relying solely on this. That is why buying at the bottom of QQ or SOXX can be more accurate.
Looking at the current situation, based on 3x leverage, it appears to be almost touching the bottom, right? That is true along the trend line, but that may not be accurate. Conversely, on SOXX, there is still some gap remaining between the resistance line I mentioned earlier. However, if you view this through the lens of 3x leverage, it looks like it is almost there, allowing you to make a purchase relatively quickly.
Therefore... Rather than entering too quickly, you should invest by referring to the price level to determine the timing for additional purchases. Also, in the case of QQ, it is currently positioned quite high, and a full-scale decline has not yet begun. However, if you enter simply by looking at the 3x leverage and thinking, "Oh, it is quite close to the major resistance line," a trick occurs in that area.
In other words, a discrepancy arises where it does not match, so you must always pay close attention to these aspects. This is especially true for those using 3x leverage, as the position, divergence, and resistance itself can move and be expressed differently from the original index. Therefore, chart analysts should refer to the price level rather than the 3x leverage when looking at resistance or support lines; specifically, there is still a considerable divergence.
As you can see, the decline hasn't even started along the trend line relative to the 200-day moving average yet, but if you view this through the lens of 3x leverage, it appears as though it is not very far away. Since mismatches can occur in such areas, you should develop the habit of confirming the lower bound based on the original index before buying.
If you hold onto this, you can engage in leveraged investing more safely and successfully. So, is this the right time to short? It seems quite difficult to place orders right now because there is a high possibility of very short-term movements. If you entered yesterday, you are likely stuck again today.
Since the volatility is so significant, it is not easy to identify a trend right now. Instead, it appears that hatching into bonds or similar sectors would be much more advantageous. Currently, bond yields are showing signs of heading slightly downward. In other words, an inverse relationship has been established, and interest rates are stabilizing—moving towards a peak-out—and these factors are being reflected in the bond market.
Now, if you look at Tesla, the major resistance line is located around this level, as far as I know, about $175. Since this is established as a key resistance line, if it is maintained, a zone where the moving averages form an upward alignment could emerge. That is when we can invest. So, as I mentioned in the last video, since the volatility within this area is likely to be relatively small right now...
Rather than betting 100% on one direction, I recommend keeping both sides open. Those who have already entered should hold, while those looking to make additional purchases should take a little more time and place their bets on the side where the probability of success has increased. I mentioned that stocks like Apple are currently in excellent positions due to strong earnings results.
However, they have risen sharply in the short term and were previously in a downtrend; now, they are showing signs of beginning to shift back into a uptrend. So, how will this move? There is a high probability of resistance appearing in this manner. Around $150 could be a re-entry timing, so please keep an eye on those aspects.
Once the alignment is re- established, the stock could move forward in a positive direction. Ultimately, the key point I am conveying today is to enter while predicting and monitoring the bottom line. It is not about blindly thinking, "I must buy right now." Since the current market is one where uncertainty persists and sharp corrections could occur, you should prepare in advance for individual stocks, deciding whether to proceed with additional purchases based on the trend.
As you explained, rather than trying to catch at a very high point, entering right now—even if it is a good stock on Facebook—can actually be unsettling. Therefore, if you establish your own trend or resistance lines and set these buying timing points in advance, and then purchase stocks close to that timing, I believe you can invest more safely even if the market undergoes a correction.
So, for stocks like TQ or SOXL, I suggest checking the areas I mentioned earlier based on price data to determine when to make additional purchases. That is how I would summarize it. Okay, that is all for today's video. Thank you.
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