저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금 가격은 $5,500 고점 후 조정(약 $4,000대)을 겪었으나, 화폐 공급 확대와 구매력 하락으로 장기 상승 구조가 유지될 수 있다고 주장. 콘드라티예프 주기상 원자재 상승장이 약 20년 지속될 것이며 금리도 2020년 8월 이후 상승 추세라고 봄. 다만 금 상승이 항상 보장되지는 않으며 채권 붕괴·물가 상승 국면에서는 금도 하락할 수 있다고 경고. 실물 금 보유는 자산 보전 수단으로 권고하되 단기 수익 목적과는 구분.
다듬은 글
I don't think I would say about any price movement in my life that I expected it. Do you understand? First of all, you don't know when the market is going to turn. Of course, I expected gold to maintain its purchasing power. But I didn't expect the dollar to lose purchasing power against gold so quickly.
So I didn't think gold would just go to 5,500. Now, at 5,500, it may have temporarily overheated and has been in a correction since then, as you know. The biggest opportunity for gold may come not from a sudden price spike, but from a much longer-term shift in the value of paper currencies. If monetary expansion continues and purchasing power continues to decline, gold may remain in a structural uptrend even despite sharp corrections.
Marc Faber, a Swiss investor, economist, and market commentator, argues that the world is entering a long-term commodity price boom that could last for about 20 more years. Gold is particularly important in this cycle because it can serve as a means of preserving purchasing power when currencies depreciate.
Tariffs, wars, rising raw material costs, and continued monetary expansion can exacerbate these pressures, creating a favorable long-term backdrop for hard assets. This does not mean that gold grows in a straight line. Faber points to the metal's rise to $5,500 per ounce as a possible overheating, followed by a significant correction.
He considers such a movement normal for large "bull" markets, where prices rise sharply, roll back, and then try to make another move up. It is difficult to know exactly when each turning point will occur. The broader argument comes down to monetary policy. Faber believes that governments and central banks face significant political obstacles in trying to maintain tight monetary conditions for an extended period of time.
This makes further money creation likely, and if this continues, gold could continue to rise in value relative to fiat currencies. Other commodities may outperform gold at certain stages of the cycle, but for investors focused on preserving purchasing power, gold remains attractive. If you found this review helpful, and you are closely following the market, we are here to continue to bring you sharp analysis and opinions from those who understand what is happening. Thank you for watching.
Well, as you know, we have these long-term price cycles, and they are usually called Kondratiev cycles. These are commodity cycles, consisting of periods of rising commodity prices followed by falling prices, and so on. I admit that these cycles have been distorted by money printing. But overall, we are in an upward cycle for commodity prices, and this could last for another twenty years.
This upward cycle in commodity prices also brings with it an upward cycle in interest rates. Since 1981, the world has been experiencing a downward trend in interest rates until August 2020. Since then, interest rates around the world have been on a rising trend. No trend is completely linear; there are cyclical fluctuations where rates rise, then fall for a while, then rise again. In my opinion, we are in a phase of rapid interest rate growth that will continue for several more years.
Along with this, we are seeing rising prices for raw materials. Rising commodity prices are supported, encouraged, or exacerbated by tariffs and wars. During wars, commodity prices almost always tend to rise, and this is no exception.
This is a very valid question: how do we measure real performance? Measuring in another currency may be inefficient, because that currency may also lose its value. So I suppose that measuring in gold equivalent is one way to adjust any asset, whether it's wine, stocks, or bonds. We could adjust them for the price of gold and then assume that the real expression is the price of gold.
I don't think I could say about any price movement I've seen in my life that I expected it. Do you understand? First, you never know when the market will turn around. There are certain symptoms of events that indicate a market reversal, that a "bear" or "bull" market for any commodity or asset is coming to an end. But the exact moment when this will happen is unknown.
So, of course, I expected gold to maintain its purchasing power, but I didn't expect the dollar to lose its value against gold so quickly. I couldn't have thought that gold would just hit 5,500. Right now, at 5,500, it's probably temporarily overvalued, and as you know, it's been in a correction phase ever since.
It's like 1999: gold was still $253 an ounce, then in 2008 it went up to $1,921, and then it went down—or was it 2009—it went down to $1,500. And $1,000 was actually near the bottom. And then it went up again. So we observe a stepwise movement in the markets, when the markets make an impulse jump up, then a correction, go up again, then a correction again, and so on.
In my opinion, under current conditions, central banks probably have no other option but to print money. They have alternatives, but these alternatives are very painful in a democracy. Therefore, implementing a tight monetary policy is very difficult. So they will continue to print money, and under such conditions, the price of gold will likely continue to rise relative to paper currencies.
What do you think about this? Regarding oil, and not necessarily, maybe wheat, corn, soybeans will now grow more than gold. But overall, if one's goal is to preserve one's purchasing power, then I believe that investing in gold is still advisable. Over time, gold can become more than just a hedge or investment. It can once again take on a direct monetary role.
But there is an important nuance. Even aggressive money issuance does not guarantee that gold will constantly increase in price. The more important question is what happens when attempts to prop up the financial system begin to undermine trust in the system itself.
Marc Faber believes that gold and silver coins could eventually regain a stronger status as money, potentially becoming useful for everyday transactions if confidence in paper currencies deteriorates significantly. He doesn't necessarily see this as a desirable outcome, but argues that a significant loss of faith in fiat currencies could increase the monetary importance of physical precious metals.
At the same time, Faber warns against perceiving money printing as an automatic catalyst for rising gold prices. When central banks aggressively expand the money supply, investors may become less willing to hold government bonds due to rising concerns about inflation and declining purchasing power. Eventually, monetary expansion may extend beyond financial markets and begin to affect the cost of essential goods.
Gold itself demonstrates why this path can be unpredictable. The metal rose to $5,500 an ounce before falling to around $4,000. And while it has since begun to recover, Faber is unsure whether another sustained upswing is underway. His outlook is cautious, not overtly pessimistic. Even without knowing the next big move, he still sees the point in owning some amount of physical gold.
This brings the discussion to an issue that investors often overlook. Owning gold is one decision, but deciding where to store it and under what jurisdiction is another.
Let's get back to the interview. Gold, silver, and platinum coins will then have the status of money. I mean, they already have the status of money today. But I can't walk into a department store in Thailand or Switzerland with an ounce of gold and expect the store to give me back the rest in other gold coins. Do you understand? They don't have the rest. But in the future you will be able to. The time will come when you can, say, buy life with gold coins. This is not necessarily the scenario I'm waiting for, but it will probably happen—if not in my lifetime, then in yours, since you look so young. And so far, no one has managed to synthesize gold artificially. But that doesn't mean it will never be done.
An investor has a lot to think about. Is gold cheap or expensive now? You know, even when printing money, at some point this process can become counterproductive, because bond markets, of course, react very negatively to printing money. Let's say I have a portfolio of bonds at all times, with different maturity dates and different quality. But this is a replacement for keeping cash on deposit in banks.
Now, if I see the Fed printing money, I'm less likely to buy bonds, because I know that the Fed's issuance eventually leads to higher prices in the system. Not always immediately, but over time, that higher price has an impact on the cost of living—yours and mine. And we usually call this inflation. If the symptoms of money printing manifest themselves in the stock market, we call it a "bull" stock market. If it's in the real estate market, we call it a "bull" real estate market. But when the cost of bread, butter, olive oil, and essential items increases, we call it inflation.
In any case, printing money at a certain point does not lead to a bond rally, but to a bond crash and a rise in the cost of living. And this, in fact, means the end of the effectiveness of financial assistance from central banks. At this point, they have to speed up the printing of money, because the bond market is falling rapidly, so they have to print more and more money to buy up these bonds, which are depreciating in value. And this raises interest rates sharply. At a certain point, rising interest rates begin to negatively impact assets. That's why I say: even if you print money, at some point it may not raise the price of gold. We've just seen gold fall from 5,500 to about 4,000, and now we're going up again. But it is not at all clear whether it will continue to grow.
Some believe we are back in a "bull" market, but it's not entirely obvious to me. Even if it's not entirely obvious, I want to have gold. And then the question arises: how exactly to store gold, and in which jurisdiction? Ultimately, gold offers protection in a monetary environment where confidence in currencies, bonds, and traditional financial assets is becoming increasingly fragile. Its value proposition goes beyond short-term price targets, especially when debt pressures, inflation, and policy interventions change the financial landscape.
However, neither metal should be seen as a one-sided deal. Significant pullbacks can occur even within strong long-term trends. For investors, a stronger argument is to view physical precious metals as a strategic means of wealth preservation and monetary insurance, rather than simply as a tool for speculative profit.
Will gold be able to continue its long-term growth if central banks fail to contain inflation and currency depreciation? So stay with us for clear, data-driven analytics of the financial system. Don't forget to like and subscribe so you don't miss our weekly updates. Thank you for your continued support, we hope you enjoy this video.
Comments 0