저자: MarcFaber,AlasdairMacleod · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 중앙은행 매입과 국가부채 부담 증가 속에서 장기적 가치저장 수단으로 주목받는다. Faber는 미국 국채이자비용이 연 약 1.1조 달러에 이르고 금리 상승으로 부담이 커졌다고 보며, 자산 버블 붕괴 시 반도체·AI 주식이 크게 하락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 다만 금이 오를지는 확신하지 않으며 다른 자산보다 덜 하락할 수 있다는 견해다. Macleod는 유럽 중앙은행들의 금 본국 이송을 미국에 대한 신뢰 저하 신호로 보고, 실물 은의 가격 상승 가능성과 아시아 집중 금 보유고를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
People are looking at silver, well, once gold starts to rise again, they will see silver , if you will, as a cheap way to get into history, and that will exacerbate the industrial shortage. I have no doubt about that , but I wouldn't consider it a true story. True history is gold. Central banks are buying gold, European central banks, you know, are actually sending the clearest signal: we cannot trust the United States to hold our gold.
Gold is a store of value, and for the past 40 years I have been arguing that central banks can no longer be trusted. You should be your own central bank and store some gold yourself. I'm not sure that gold will increase in price, but it may fall less than other assets. Gold's role as a store of value is once again gaining attention as concerns about public debt, monetary inflation and the durability of the prolonged asset bull market remain at the heart of the investment debate.
Alasdair MacLeod, former head of research at GoldMoney Incorporated, and Swiss investor Marc Faber offered different but similar arguments for why investors might continue to view gold as a safe-haven asset. Faber focused on the rising cost of servicing the national debt. He noted that rising debt combined with higher interest rates has made interest payments increasingly burdensome, estimating that the cost of servicing the US national debt has reached about $1.1 trillion per year.
In his opinion, the situation could become particularly inflationary if governments respond to these obligations by creating additional money. Under such conditions, Faber argues, gold can function as a means of saving. Faber also warned that the broader “bull” asset market will eventually end, although he acknowledged that it is impossible to predict the timing.
He said the recession could happen relatively soon or in a few years. In this scenario, he believes investors should consider which assets are likely to lose the least value. He singled out semiconductor and AI stocks as sectors that could see significant declines if current investment enthusiasm changes, suggesting that gold could prove relatively resilient.
His argument is not a guarantee that gold will rise. Faber specifically noted that gold could also fall in price, but he believes it could fall less than other assets during a major market correction. He also raised the possibility, as a hypothetical risk, that governments might eventually impose restrictions on private gold ownership.
If you fou. Your support helps us provide you with deeper market analysis. Thank you for watching. The cost of debt service is rising very quickly because the debt is increasing and interest rates are higher than, say, 8-10 years ago. So we had no problems, and all these economists were saying that debt didn't matter, you know, modern monetary theories, these absurd theories.
But in a " bull" market, people believe in everything, even the absurd. Debt levels exploded, and this was possible while interest rates were falling because interest payments were not increasing. But once interest rates started rising after August 2020, it became a burden, and now it is the largest expense item—$1.1 trillion a year in interest on the national debt.
Now, interest rates on government debt could, theoretically, be deflationary. But if you print money, then of course it stimulates inflation quite a bit . And in such conditions, gold is a means of preserving value. And I have been calling for the last 40 years that central banks can no longer be trusted.
You should be your own central bank and keep some gold. This is documented in my books, my articles, and my interviews. I have always advised people to buy a little gold every month. And I continue to do so, but I'm not sure that gold will go up, but it may fall less than other assets. Isn't that right?
If I had to make a list of what would fall the most when the bubble bursts, I would add semiconductor stocks and stocks related to artificial intelligence. Many of these companies are going bankrupt, just going bankrupt. And gold will remain, but as you know, there 's always the risk that the government, especially under someone like Mr.
Trump, will say, "Well, gold is good, but private ownership of gold is unpatriotic." That the government can hold gold, but private individuals are not allowed to hold it. You understand, if the government could lock down the population during COVID, and the population accepted it. They agreed to be locked up and forced to be vaccinated.
They accepted all of this, and they probably wouldn't do anything if the government came and said, " Sorry, we have to take your gold ." "We'll pay for it, we'll give you some dollars, which we'll print." We could issue freshly printed dollar bills with Mr. Trump's signature, because by then America will be called " Trumpland." Well, one event that is definitely going to happen, although we don't know the sequence, is that after this period of monetary inflation that we've had over the last 4 years.
Just remember, in 1982 the Dow Jones low was around 800, at 780 . And from then on, everything went uphill. This bull market in assets will come to an end. There is no doubt about that. We don't know for sure when this will end. It could happen tomorrow, in 5 or even 10 years, but one way or another it will happen.
And then asset owners should ask themselves: "Mark is known as a " bear," he's been pessimistic all his life, etc." And don't believe him. "But just in case, maybe he was right for once in his life." Then perhaps we should think: "How can we lose the least?" After all, we all have assets, we own stocks, real estate, cash, bonds, collectibles, wines, etc.
And precious metals, so how can we lose as little as possible? It makes sense to invest in companies that are reliable in the worst-case scenario, which is quite likely. MacLeod approached the gold issue from a different angle, focusing on central banks and the location of official gold reserves. He discussed gold held in European institutions and mentioned the movement of assets in the Netherlands, France, and Germany.
McLeod sees these actions as evidence that some European central banks are becoming uncomfortable with keeping their gold in US custody. He went further, stating that custodians had in fact failed to provide proper access to some foreign bullion. For MacLeod, gold remains more important than silver in monetary history.
He expects silver to attract additional investment if gold starts to rise again, as investors may view silver as a cheaper way to join the precious metals trend. He believes that growing investment demand could increase pressure on the already limited industrial market. However, he argues that central bank demand for gold is a much more important development.
Macleod also highlighted the concentration of land-based gold reserves in Asia. He estimated that more than half of the world's terrestrial reserves could be concentrated in this region. For China, he cited significant volumes related to withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, bank savings accounts and government funds, while acknowledging that some of these figures are uncertain.
Let 's go back to the video. So, I see the sellers. I see sellers from carry trade, I see sellers from Japan. I mean, we had a situation in a slightly different context, where the Netherlands Bank, the national central bank, withdrew its gold from New York. But, you know , the story wasn't just about that.
They followed the French script, telling the Bank of New York: “You know what, instead of delivering the gold, you just pay us the money, and we’ll go and buy it in the market ourselves .” That's what happened to most of it. A small amount of it was actually delivered. Then it was sent to the Dutch storage facilities .
And they, of course, checked her out . And they're still checking to see if the serial numbers match, well, quality and all that stuff. And they just sent, you know, the same amount of bullion to the Bank of England. What they bought in the market, they keep in the Bank of England. They actually moved their gold from the Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to the Bank of England.
So, this is the Netherlands, this is the Bank of France, and before that there was the Bundesbank. The three major European central banks believe that the Americans are stealing their gold holdings. This is the only conclusion one can reach. Yes, President Trump said: he who owns the gold, he who rules, I will paraphrase.
That's what he said. That's what he is. We're talking about people who own gold. I know, yes. possession as target gold, in other words, storage. It was, you know, the New York Fed acting as a custodian. They stole it. Everything is as simple as ever. You can't come to any other conclusion. Do you remember how long it took the Bundesbank to get its gold?
Yes, well, the initial proposal was for a very small part of it. It seems like it was 300 or so tons that they were going to return to Germany for 7 years. 7 years. And this, of course, happened after long negotiations. This seems quite understandable. The Bundesbank wanted to send its auditors to check the gold, but they were told, " Get off your ass.
You're not coming to look at your property. No, we can't allow that. I mean, you know, it's quite obvious. It's not that I mean, we're talking about everything being focused on gold. Well, you know, we all have a certain attitude, you know, as individuals, we view silver as a kind of monetary metal, so to speak, and also as an industrial metal.
And it has its own dynamics. And I have no doubt that the monetary aspect will still attract people who are looking at silver. When gold starts to rise again, they will see silver, if you like, as a cheap way into this story. Well, and that will increase the industrial deficit. I have no doubt about that, but I wouldn't consider it the real story.
The real story is gold. Central banks are buying gold. Central banks Europe, you know, they're actually sending the clearest signal. I mean, don't just look at what they're saying, but look at the message itself. We can't trust the United States to take care of our gold. We're getting out. That's the message that's really the most important today.
Non-monetary gold, it's much, much bigger. It was just huge. And I mean, you know, there's still some liquidity in the gold market. I mean, don't get me wrong. But, you know, it's being bought up. I mean, the Chinese are obviously buying it up. In terms of production, you also have Russia, which is probably producing more than China right now , or will be soon.
And, you know, the unknown factor is how much is actually locked up in India. But, if you put all of that together, the total amount of the total onshore reserves, I would say over half of all onshore reserves are locked up in Asia. Interesting. Well, I'm glad you You mentioned China. Yes. Well, there is something to think about.
We know that citizens have about 28,000 tons. That is just the withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange. We do not know how much gold is in the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. But I believe that there is at least another 5,000 tons that are securing the gold savings accounts of banks. In addition, there are unknown amounts that the government and various state organizations have accumulated since 1983, when legislation was introduced that gave the People's Bank of China sole responsibility for managing the country's gold reserves.
Recent events in Europe and the United States add to the broader discussion about geopolitical and fiscal risks. The central bank of the Netherlands confirmed that it had moved about 86 tons of gold from North America to London, citing growing geopolitical instability and saying that the move would better prepare for major crises.
The transfer was part of an estimated 313 tons that were stored in the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Republicans on the House Appropriations Committee unveiled a defense spending bill for 2027, proposing more than $1 trillion for the Pentagon, a $234 billion increase over 2026. These developments underscore the growing focus on security, reserves, and government spending.
If debt pressures and central banks’ shift in attitude toward gold continue, could gold’s role as a store of value become more important than its short-term price performance? Stay tuned for more market analysis and financial insights. If you enjoyed this video, , and see you next time.
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