저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 부채 공급 과잉과 금리 상승이 시장 압박으로 이어지며, 주식의 초과수익 여유(margin of safety)가 소진되어 향후 2년 내 시장에 부정적 영향이 있을 수 있다고 봄. 정부 지출 약 7조 달러 대비 수입 약 5조 달러로 부채 차입이 지속되고, 미국 10년물 금리는 2026년 9월 10일 4.91%로 2023년 10월 이후 최고. 금은 전통 자산 대비 헤지 수단으로 포트폴리오의 5~15% 배분을 제시. 금은 2026년 1월 사상 최고 후 2분기 약 16% 하락해 단기 변동성 존재.
다듬은 글
It can be said that the expected cash flow will not be as attractive relative to bonds as before, given this upward pressure on their yields. As a result, we are approaching the point in the cycle where this margin of safety is exhausted, and upward pressure is likely to have a negative impact on markets.
Until we see it, we don't know exactly when it will happen, but if we take the time frame, I think it will happen within the next two years. So, for thousands of years, one shiny yellow metal has quietly survived every empire, every currency, and every financial crisis. And right now he may be trying to tell us something important.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has long argued that when gold moves, it 's worth listening to what it's warning us about. And this week, with gold in a very strange position, his ideas are more important than ever. Dalio does not view the world as a random series of events. He sees five great forces repeating in cycles, and gold affects almost every one of them.
This is where gold comes into play. Dalio points out that the supply of debt is huge compared to the number of buyers who want to buy it. The US government alone spends approximately $7 trillion a year, receiving about $5 trillion in revenue. Therefore, he is forced to borrow the difference and constantly refinance the old debt, and a significant portion of the bills are now interest only.
So what is gold doing now? It was a crazy trip. Gold hit a record high in late January this year, but since then 2026 has been a tough year, with the second quarter being gold's worst since 2013, with a drop of around 16%. However , Dalio's arguments were never about picking the perfect moment in the market.
Back in 2025, when gold was soaring, he told CNBC that people should consider holding up to 15% of their portfolio in gold, comparing today's high spending, high debt, and weakening dollar to the early 1970s. He also argued that rising gold prices could be seen as a signal of distress rather than confidence, and that gold was the currency least susceptible to depreciation or confiscation.
As gold reflects growing pressures within the financial system, let's take a closer look at Ray Dalio's analysis and why he believes its moves could signal deeper risks ahead. I see that there is, there is such a thing as a long-term debt cycle, and, um, well, it works in such a way that when you start with a small amount of debt, you can build up that debt.
But what happens is this: when debt service payments start to come in—in other words, interest and your, uh, debt service costs— when they go up relative to income, it creates a squeeze that's like, um, almost like plaque building up in your system, and it creates, it's part of that cycle. So we have a capital cycle, and we have this type of cycle.
The second force is, um, political and social force. When there are big gaps in wealth that are associated with these cycles, when there are big gaps in wealth and values, and they reach a point where populism emerges, which means insurmountable divisions that turn into conflicts between left and right, those who want to redistribute it and those who don't, and so on , and they become irreconcilable, and that creates big conflicts, like the conflicts that we're seeing now, with these insurmountable divisions.
And it's related to the economic cycle, and they, um, are evolving. And the third force is geopolitical. In other words, political is within a country, geopolitical is between countries, and there is also its own order there. There is a monetary order—that's the first cycle, the second cycle—that's the political cycle, so it has a system of political order, and then there is a geopolitical system or order.
And he too goes through a cycle. When there's a war, as there is in most of these cases, there's a big conflict, there's a winner, the winner sets the rules, you start with a clean slate, then these things accumulate, and then you get conflict. So, geopolitically, at the end of 1945, we had the end of World War II, the United States had won, and actually got the opportunity to set the rules to create a system that was somewhat similar to the American system of representative democracy.
We call this a multilateral system, which is built around the idea that there will be a United Nations, and there will be an international court, and there will be a World Trade Organization , and a World Health Organization , and they're going to solve problems together because they're going to vote, and so on.
This is over, okay? So now we no longer have that type of order, multilateral. You have a base of strength. In other words, who has a certain amount of power, what you want, how you apply that power, and as a result, more conflict arises. The fourth force throughout time was natural phenomena. Interestingly, droughts, floods, and pandemics have killed more people than wars.
This is always a significant factor. Of course, this is important now, and especially next year we will enter the super El Niño period. So it's worth taking that into account. Each of these factors causes more stress. And the fifth force throughout history is human knowledge, most importantly—new technologies, inventions that change the world and develop.
So if you look at any indicators of well-being, like life expectancy or GDP per capita , you see that they're going up, and these other cycles are happening around them. So technology now, and most importantly, artificial intelligence, will definitely change the world. They are interconnected. All these five forces are interconnected.
You can take action and see how they work. The issue of debt and money is problematic. Internal order is a problem. Geopolitical order. You see more problems, more conflicts. Natural phenomena are also a problem. The situation is developing not in a favorable, but in an unfavorable direction. And there is also interesting artificial intelligence.
So, these are the five fundamental forces. They usually operate in these cycles because if one fails, it affects the others. If there is a crisis in the economy, it will affect politics and geopolitics. The supply is large relative to the demand. This is due to the supply of debt, which is an asset that someone has to purchase.
And it is large because of the national debt. I'll give you some numbers so you can understand the scale. It is also large because it has to fund a significant portion of AI costs, capital investments, etc. Companies need to raise a lot of capital. So , there is an active sale of capital. And there is a lot of such debt.
In the United States, for the central government, to understand the scale, $7 trillion in debt is sold every year . They have to sell... sorry. They spend 7 trillion and receive 5 trillion. So, they have 2 trillion, and they have to sell that amount, and then half of that is interest, because the interest bill has increased, and they need to refinance the debt.
This is what you see reflected in the market. And a retreat is taking place. A silent crisis is brewing in the global financial system, and according to Ray Dalio, the only asset that doesn't depend on someone's promise to pay may be the best protection against it. Dalio laid out a simple but disturbing chain of events, and gold stands at the very end of it.
When there is more debt for sale than buyers willing to hold it, money becomes scarcer and the price of borrowing increases. Dalio explains that this continues until demand is constrained, meaning the cost of funds increases so much that some borrowers are pushed out of the market altogether. The 10- year Treasury yield hit 4.91% on September 10, its highest level in 2026 and the highest since October 2023, and mortgage rates have been rising with it since February.
Dalio also points to what was happening in the markets. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and when stock prices rise, the expected future returns for investors decrease. This is where his thoughts about gold come in. Dalio likes to say that debt is money, and money is debt. And now all eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, which is seen as a great unknown for gold.
This is a reminder that gold can be volatile in the short term, even if the long-term argument remains unchanged. Let's get back to the interview. This, uh, looks like there's going to be a tightening of credit. And, as a result, interest rates are rising. And this continues until demand is constrained.
In other words, the cost of funds is increasing. And then when that happens, uh, some, uh, get squeezed out of the credit markets because there has to be this restriction. And so, uh, you can almost tell who's going to be displaced. In particular, homeowners, uh, mortgage borrowers, those categories, uh, are likely to be displaced.
Uh, and, uh, it can happen that when you start to see it negatively impact the markets first and then the economy, it's a normal cycle. And so, uh, what's happened in the markets right now is that when bonds, uh, have fallen, that means interest rates have gone up. And when stocks have risen, it means that expected future returns have fallen .
And if we calculate the expected return on stocks and the corresponding return on bonds , we will see a situation where the excess return on stocks is very low. In other words, we can say that future cash flow will not be as attractive relative to bonds as it was before, due to this upward pressure on bond yields.
As a result, we are approaching a point in the cycle where this “margin of safety” is disappearing, and upward pressure is likely to have a negative impact on markets. Until we see it, we don't know exactly when it will happen, but if we take the time frame, I think it will happen within the next two years.
Since, in my opinion, everyone looks at everything only from a " long" position, I also look at it from a " short" position. So, I played for debt reduction . OK. In other words, but for most people who will not open long and short positions in different instruments, I believe that the first thing to think about is diversification.
And I would emphasize that the vulnerability of assets to rising interest rates is something that, in my opinion, should be paid attention to. And the fact that when there is a large debt, money eventually depreciates. Debt is money, and money is debt. When I say that money is debt, I mean that when you hold a debt asset, you have someone's promise to pay you money.
And how much that money costs determines what exactly you get. So debt is money that is due. And what are they worth? So when you devalue them , and when you have a lot of debt, there is a desire to devalue them. This is something I learned when I worked as a clerk at the stock exchange. And so when you hold it as a debt asset, I don't think it's a good asset.
And this is the current mix of circumstances where if you just look at gold in a portfolio and say, "I'm going to hold a portfolio of bonds and stocks, which are the majority of the assets in this class , or even real estate in this portfolio." An asset that is both money, that is, "hard" money, and an effective means of diversification is gold.
If you wanted to achieve the best risk-reward ratio, you would add a bit of gold to it. But what amount would be an appropriate balance? This would be between 5 and 15%—that is, a balanced portfolio. This should be part of the main idea that runs through this entire discussion—it's trust. Debt cycles , rising yields, and pressure on borrowers—it all boils down to one question: how much can you trust the promises made in paper money?
Ray Dalio never sought to predict the exact date of the collapse of the system, but advised owning a small share of an asset independent of it so that all your savings do not depend on whether someone else keeps their word. A tough year for gold proves that there is no perfect hedge, but the questions that drove its rise remain.
And future Fed decisions and developments in the bond market will show whether these fears subside or become more pronounced. So, do you think gold deserves a place in a modern portfolio, or are stocks and bonds still enough to protect your capital? Share your opinion in the comments. And if this video gave you something to think about, like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you don't miss the next breakdown. Thanks for watching, stay curious, and see you in the next video.
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