저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 과거 10년 강세장이 이제 끝났다고 보며 주식 급락과 경기침체 가능성을 경고하지만, 현금은 쓰레기(인플레이션·화폐 발행으로 가치 하락)이므로 글로벌 분산 포트폴리오와 금 일부 보유를 권한다. 핵심 논리: 1971년 닉슨의 금본위제 폐지 이후 무제한 화폐 발행이 가능해져 법정화폐 가치가 하락했고, 저금리·마이너스 금리 환경에서 저축 수익률은 0 수준으로 떨어졌다. 금: 달리오는 금을 통화 분산 수단으로 강조하며, 중앙은행과 기관이 준비자산으로 보유하는 자산이라 장기적으로 유효하다고 주장한다. 금 관련 방향성 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. 비트코인: 가치저장 수단과 교환 수단 모두로 부적합하다고 평가했다. 변동성이 너무 크고 중앙은행 등 기관이 준비자산으로 보유하지 않는다는 이유다. 향후 가능성은 열어두었으나 현재는 부정적이다. 채권·금리: 정부 부채 증가로 국채 매도 압력이 커질 수 있고, 다음 침체 시 금리가 크게 인하되면(평균 500bp 수준) 제로금리 이하 환경이 올 수 있어 채권 보유 매력이 떨어질 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 본인도 틀릴 수 있다고 언급했다. 주식: 다음 큰 하락이 저축·채권에서 자금이 주식으로 이동하는 계기가 될 수 있다는 취지로 언급했으나 구체적 지수·종목 방향 예측은 없다. 리스크: 경기침체, 주식 급락, 금리 및 화폐가치 변동, 부채 확대. 목표가·기간 명시 없음. 출연자 전망: 달리오는 장기적으로 법정화폐 가치 하락과 분산 필요성을 강조했으며, 단기 주식 방향은 명확히 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
so stock market will be dropping back dramatically in last few days just look at the Belgians well it is very very hard to believe just this we have been for the one of the biggest bull market in the history and bull market have been last for more than 10 years since 2008 and it's question right now will we are in the very bull mark because what happened last a few days is unbelievable even I don't believe for myself but Tom Jones has been dropping more than four thousand and it is something very very trough situation is that this had to had to happen today or in the future because stock market has been very very overextending it was just met your time when correction will occur but question is is this just correction or is this the just way or the next recession so due to this stock market correction or potential recession we will talking about one of the best single hedge fund managers in the world it is right Delia for the world SAS who does not know who is it it is the hedge fund manager for what of the biggest hedge fund in the world Bridgewater so already tell you of a 70 year old American which born in New York City and founded the hedge fund Bridgewater he graduated on Harvard and his estimate net worth is over 18 billion dollars so that is just short from rainerio before we started I just want to thank you for watching and have encouraged you to smash the thumb like button and subscribe to this channel because it is much very useful and free and without further ado let's get into this video we had David Tepper had texted into the show on on Friday and suggested right now that you have to be in the market for long and so the question is whether everybody jumps on the train everybody gets in full-on and then the problem arises there does much likelier then the mind you jump off the train but also the question is what do you jump into what I do jump off the train and the issue is you you can't jump into cash cash is trash okay cash is that they're going to because they're gonna print money if we could all what do you do you get out okay so cash is not gonna do what do you do so what you have to do is you have to have a well diversified portfolio and first of all you you have to be global and you have to have balance and I think like it you know I don't want to grab well the headlines gonna be again than anyway is I think that you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio so in this part of this video I said the cash in the trash and is very much true and let me explain that in 1971 US President Richard Nixon left gold standard and took off tall from Rajasthan what this mean that means that after death us can print as much money as they want and after death dole had to start to lose value and that is the reason why cash is the trash right now so back in the days if you want to just get thousand bucks you have to put in money thousand bucks in gold in value and after 1971 it was not necessary and US bank and US and the bank old world can print as much money as they moved so this is the reason why why I already said cash is the treasure this is very much true so due to this out of gold standard interest rate of saving is very much dropped to the zero and this is no reason to there is no reason to hold the savings so long or some other value and you have to put this money in some very very more valuable assets so let's continue into this video or you have to have something that's hard there are three monetary systems that happen the first isn't in the old days it had intrinsic value to carry around gold coins then they and then we come up with the idea of banks or even central banks and what they do is they create certificates write call notes that are claims on those things and we put many more certificates than there is money in the bank and then that's a linked system and we so we did that and we broke that in 1971 then you have a mana a Fiat monetary system which means that you can print whatever amount of money you want and you can put that and that's what governments do so we're in that part of the cycle bigger picture so that when you think about things the depreciation of the exchange rate and the printing of money I think over the next few years is going to be the biggest so totally as I said and in 2007 in 1971 Richard Nixon took dollar of standard gold standard and after that dollars drop in value pretty much and back in the history there is some certificate which you have to put money in the bank to to get back certificate and in this time of course people just print more certificate than gold was in bank and after death there is fiat in 1971 and certificate fiat is just the same and just a different way because back in the days people print certificate now people print fiat money and same is that same money but there is no value in this money so Vidal you said that you have to put that money in something more valuable so let's get back you want to buy gold do you buy Bitcoin no here's hmm there are two purposes of money a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth and bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases now store wealth server no because for essentially its first it's too volatile because of the volatility you can't go next to it someday when it you know I would say Libra or something which is as more stable value has got more potential but also who is going to do the buying central bankers and others what are they going to hold as reserves what has been tried and true are they gonna hold digital bit Goenka they're going to hold gold their that is a reserve currency and it's been a reserve currency for a thousand years um I don't want to I know this is gonna be the headline of gold I want to emphasize a bit of gold is a diversifier okay and that's the advice I can give I know I'm gonna come out of here like raid Ali's wild on gold and that's not exactly my second dashes trash is your headline but so in this part was asked about Bitcoin and his answer was very much correct and that means that bitcoin is such to hold by some very big institution or something like yes don't let me wrong maybe is the right choice say maybe it is not the bed of Bitcoin but maybe in the future will will be correct but today's just a much volatile and there is a much more better better to such such some assets or stocks or gold or something great you would have thought that after all the years of zero interest rates in QE 1 2 3 & 4 you could have been making this case that entire time well what of what you were just making it maybe there was so much of a lack of demand in the private sector following the financial crisis that it was able to absorb all of that but coming to us now with that it almost at the risk of sounding like the boy who cried wolf too many times I'm not saying you did but we all work that the the bond vigil the delante the vigilante we it's been well-documented for the past ten years now you're saying it I think it's totally do well I would say when we are dealing with the negative interest rates which we've had those doors and years already well know we know how long it's been okay and you take each country and you take where we were in December toward the tightening then you create an easing we are now coming into a direction and so the question for any of us is not whether it's early or not the question for any of us is when you're holding all of those bonds and you have a negative interest rate or something and how far more can you push that what is the next five years look like and the next five years is going to be something like that plus they'll be more deficit now more deficits means sell more bonds who are you going to sell the bond why should I believe we're going to negative interest rates in the United States well I I think that and I'm not saying now I'm sever that okay if you if you have a next next downturn okay mm-hmm what is it's on average 500 basis points of rate cuts oh then you can't do that you go to Kuwait right right and and modern we have a normal int right right we don't have much stimulant we have people at each other's throats over the wealth gap and so what will the next downturn be and also why would you want to hold those so why do you want to hold those at some point I don't know I could be wrong I'm not sure I've been wrong plenty in my life so I can't I could be wrong I'm just trying to describe like tell me why there so let me explain this so many many years ago interest was five four five six you know the ten percent for saving for his bonds for others but after banks have printed so much money there is no such interest to hold the money and and savings interest was dropping holes to the zero and owns interest as well and question is right now is there you know what will be in the few when banks print our more money and perhaps interest rate has dropped more than zero so there will be no reason to hold the whole bones or wholesaling or something like us and and maybe when people pull out money in the bones and savings will because the next big drop in the stock market so so that resolve in this video let me know in the comment below what's your opinion about Radia about these topics and also give me one big smash the like button and subscribe to this channel and as always I'm thinking or watching and have a good rest of the day enjoy
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