저자: MikeSantoli·DouglasLane관련패널 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 레이 달리오 브릿지워터의 풋옵션 베팅은 단기 시장 하락 확정 신호가 아니라 저렴한 헤지 수요와 3월 슈퍼화요일 전후 선거 불확실성에 대한 우려 반영으로 보는 것이 타당하다. [달리오 풋옵션 베팅 보도] 월스트리트저널은 브릿지워터가 3월까지 글로벌 증시 하락에 10억 달러 이상을 풋옵션으로 베팅 중이라고 보도했다. 패널은 보도가 전체 포지션 맥락을 빠뜨렸다고 지적했다. 회사 전체 전략 중 일부일 수 있다는 것이다. [시장 심리와 헤지 수요] 풋옵션이 싸진 상황에서 기관들이 보험성 헤지를 늘리는 흐름으로 해석했다. 만기별 헤지 기울기상 3월 초(슈퍼화요일) 부근에 우려가 몰려 있다고 분석했다. [과거 사례 평가] 소로스의 과거 약세 베팅은 대부분 실패했고, 버핏은 풋을 매도해 수익을 냈다는 언급이 나왔다. 풋 매도는 시장 상승에 베팅하는 것이라는 점도 함께 짚었다. [달리오 해지펀드 특성] 올웨더 펀드 등 모델 기반 운용이며, 달리오의 경기 침체 콜은 지난 수년간 여러 차례 빗나갔다고 평가했다. [패널 개인 포지션] 패널 중 한 명은 일부 종목은 과열로 보고 현금화했으나 전체적으로는 여전히 강세이며 기본적으로 투자 비중을 유지한다고 밝혔다. 금융주는 장부가 부근 또는 이하로 저평가, 오일 관련 종목도 싸다고 보았다. 목표 현금 비중 60~75% 중 중간 수준(약 65~70%)을 유지한다고 했다. [중국 및 선거 이슈] 중국 무역 이슈는 식상해졌고, 시장은 결정적 이벤트를 기다리는 상태라고 봤다. 관세 유예 가능성이 남아 있어 그 확률 범위를 벗어나야 방향성이 나올 것으로 보았다. 내년 초 이후 선거 이슈가 전면에 나설 것으로 예상했다. [경기와 밸류에이션] GDP 1.5~2% 성장 전제에서 주식은 양호하지만 불확실성 프리미엄이 있다고 봤다. 10년물 금리 약 1.7% 수준에서 채권 가치는 낮다고 평가했다. 내년 실적 상향이 필요하며, 그렇지 않으면 멀티플 축소가 나타날 수 있다고 경고했다. [기업 설비투자와 배당] 기업들은 재무구조가 양호하고 현금을 보유하며 투자를 관망 중이라 시장 하방을 받치고 있다고 봤다. 주식 배당수익률이 10년물 금리보다 높아 지지 요인이 된다고 언급했다. [결론] 달리오의 풋 베팅 규모(약 10억 달러)는 전체 포지션(수백억 달러 규모) 대비 일부이며, 시장 하락 예측으로 단정하기 어렵다는 것이 패널의 공통 의견이다.
다듬은 글
averages tracking toward their first negative week in at least a month this morning's The Wall Street Journal reports that Ray Dalio is hedge fund Bridgewater is using put options to bet more than a billion dollars that global markets will fall by March sources tell the journals Bridgewater bearish bet is currently one of the largest against the markets in that it'll pay off if the S&P 500 the euro stocks 50 or both see it see a decline join us now how to talk more about the markets throughout setting managing partner at Douglas C Lane & Associates and a CNBC contributor and CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli I was reminded of a couple of things Mike and that was Soros is bearish bets over the years with S&P puts it never worked out he lost on every one of them and then another guy who who loved the deal inputs named Buffett who didn't buy puts yeah he sold billions of dollars with her puts in mates they added so much to his return based on that just when you sell puts you're just betting that the markets gonna continue to rise so we seem to you know say how high every time Dalia is on the way up every time Taleo makes a move I don't know I don't know what the I mean the first thing to say is that the report kind of lacks context you don't know where this position fits within the constellation of all the other things that the firm is doing it's not a bet the firm trade on the market going down and out right way so I think that you have to have to point up but I do think it reflects some sort of general activity among big institutions saying put your cheap right now we might as well lock some in it's been a big up year and there is actually if you look at some if you can look at sort of the slope of of hedging activity going out several months there is this welling up of concern that's concentrated around early March which is Super Tuesday which is when somehow people think that's when election outcomes are going to be relevant for the market so I that reflects that activity but it doesn't mean it tells you the market's going down or for the fat for that matter that he's going to be wrong in the markets going up yeah I mean when puts get really cheap obviously there's in sentiment wise in sentiment dictates a lot of a lot of things it's been a calm market we're at new highs that probably should be cheap I mean he's playing the odds right every 18 months you get a 10% correction on average on average whatever right so sometimes it happens and for all those who've missed this twenty plus percent rally especially the hedge funds that are trying to say well we've missed most of this so how do we get back how do we how do we say we're you know charging you 2% I mean there's something we've got to do so let's bet against the market I don't know when he's gonna be right yeah he'll be right at some point but the market today as yeah you followed Bridgewater I mean you know and he has more his hands are directly involved with with some funds more than others right and some have done well some of they've been just miserable right well there's been it's there's the but there's the classic bond fund right the all whether they all whether which one has been whether is the all-weather is the mammoth-sized font right which over twenty years has a great record which one is like a couple of them that he was more involved with have-nots he's more involved with them more or them it's it's more you can find some really poor performers but they're very model driven right and it's not as if it's like cowboys saying down low wakes up one morning and says I want to buy Apple that's never happening that's not even part of the then he doesn't act on his recession calls that we hype whenever he makes him in the last few years we've we've typed a lot of these different calls none of which is right I don't think that that those calls per se don't reflect well I think that we and I I'd actually put more on us than I am typing me we take some time yeah no that's what that's what happens what how are we doing it again today you also haven't done a bad yeah by being bonds have you really gotten hurt by thinking that yields are gonna stay low around the world and there's like a lot of this macro very few the big bond guys stayed long I mean Mike's explanation is perfect though with the nuance of the idea that put so cheap this isn't a bet the firm and you don't know what else the firm is doing that balance the risk on the other side and by the way you want that you almost want people thinking just around the corner there's something we have little worried about that's not new thinking over the last year either and it's behavioral finance one I want if we didn't have it then we'd be off the races and then you'd be really worried about sentiment right so you haven't as we've gone to new levels on the SP have you decided to raise some cash or no you know I raise cash on on specific companies that I think overvalued you you do have sectors as stocks within the market but I'm still bullish I'm still invested fully I think the parts of the market that are still cheap the financials that are still cheap trading below book you know value or at Book value I think some of the texts are extended I think oils getting very cheap here so there's opportunity here within the market but if you're fully invested I think you stay to your objectives and you kind of you know you don't have to be on the higher end you kind of state would you say fully invested that means for everything you sell you plow it back into something else always a certain amount of cash that you know I'm mid-range so if somebody's objective is 60 to 75 albeit close to 65 to 70% I'm not gonna be at the higher end at this point I think the markets kind of given us that opportunity already but if I do have cash I won't deploy it I'm not just gonna sit on the side completely I think they are opportunities do you think the market either one of you that is getting desensitized to China I'm getting bored with it and I'm looking for the next thing to cause even surprised the futures are higher this morning after what they what President Xi said yesterday right but I mean sooner or later we're just gonna be uh what's the next big is the election the next big leaving within chai I think the market needs something decisive one way or the other before it reacts to it at this point because the premise right now is we've kind of de-escalated to a certain degree we haven't foreclosed on the possibility of you know pushing off the tariffs in December so until we get out of that band of probabilities the markets probably going to move but what are we gonna be talking about after the first of the year that like the recession did we stop talking about that I think well I think it's good reception I think elections are gonna be front and center for a while you do in the Esso elections or everything well I think kinda who's going to be on the Democratic side and that's probably why you're seeing all this March stuff as you mentioned but you know it's always the question of what we don't know that causes the markets to go up or down and I think if you take on today's data what we have you've got a pretty good market that's you know a GDP of one-and-a-half to 2% and stocks can do well but it's always that uncertainty has the the premium for stocks at this point and bonds at 1.7 there's really not a lot of value in the bond market and we're gonna have to test this premise that the markets are based on right now which is that we're gonna get a reacceleration so in the next few months you really got to see the data come around to the markets view that we've bottomed and we're off to better numbers next year okay I think you after the first of the year we've refocused to don't wait well I think earnings have to go up next year and if they don't go up you're going to get a market with the multiple compression coming back down when we know whether they're going up we should know by the beginning of the I think this Tower of thing is huge for a lot of companies with capex at least where we when we talk to companies they're kind of sitting on the sidelines great balance sheets so that's providing some bottom to the market you know you're getting dividends above the your ten-year so that's providing some support to the market so to me so we were showing dahlias new market wage that's a billion dollars stocks will fall it's possible they have a married put to a long position to what's the long position that basis what's a long position eighty billion so he's got a bit you know how much do they managing how much is all together all together it's a big number yeah 1550 and how much equity in equities that's a Gunther T or fifty billion dollar position so a billion don't know why we I don't know that's like a married put isn't it that's one thing it's signaling a could do you don't know how much leverage we just don't know what he's doing on the other side of the book but but he's not trying to beat the market year-on-year his whole idea the objectives for his clients are don't lose me money you
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