저자: Vico · 외국인
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워런 버핏과 레이 달리오의 분산투자 견해를 비교한 영상. 버핏은 잘 아는 소수 우량기업에 집중투자하는 것이 낫고, 분산은 무지에 대한 보호막이라고 주장한다. 버핏 측은 현대 재무학(현대 포트폴리오 이론)을 헛소리(twaddle)라고 비판했다. 달리오는 상관관계가 낮은 여러 투자에 분산하면 기대수익을 유지하면서 위험을 크게 줄일 수 있다고 주장한다(카지노 비유). 이를 '성배'로 부르며 수익/위험 비율을 최대 5배 개선할 수 있다고 설명한다. 진행자 Vico는 버핏의 접근에 더 기울며, 10~15개 종목 정도를 깊이 분석하는 방식을 선호한다고 밝혔다. 2020년 분산 전략으로 ETF 중심, 또는 소수 종목 집중 중 선택을 시청자에게 묻는다. 달리오의 카지노 비유는 설득력이 낮다고 평가했다. 종목·지수·금리·환율에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 과거 버핏·달리오의 발언 인용 위주이며 개별 자산 전망은 제시되지 않음. 진행자 전망: 특정 자산 방향 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome back to infinite vessels the home for all new and non investors um KS and today we're going to be talking about the topic of diver sea vacation look I'm in the middle of my 20/20 vision on bang smack in the middle of it I'm looking I'm reviewing I'm evaluating and I'm analyzing I'm strategizing and I'm just really trying to work out how much diversification plays a part in my 20/20 vision and 2020 portfolio you guys know that you know my current portfolio I had about ten stocks at the beginning I did pretty well and then I sort of went off the rails a bit and went to about 25 stocks and I've started to peel it back and that'll mainly because so many articles are so many different you know experienced people in the industry were saying you need to diversify more you need to diversify more so now looking into 20/20 I'm starting to rethink and realize myself the question and this led me to look in at the greats Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio who have very very very different opinions on diversification into daily so I'm gonna pay some clips from both Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio and then at the end I'm gonna give my thoughts about diversification so if you want to know more please laughs please call me please subscribe help the channel get to two-and-a-half thousand subscribers and the world of investing that to more people in a clear simple and transparent manner but first let's go worried we think diversification is as practice generally makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing the diversification is a protection against ignorance I mean if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market you own everything there's nothing wrong with that I mean that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses if you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses it's crazy don't if T stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks probably because there aren't that many wonderful businesses and that are understandable to a single human being in all likelihood and it and to have some super wonderful business and then putting money in number 30 or 35 on your list of attractiveness and forgo putting more money into number one just strikes Charlie and me as and as madness and it's conventional practice and it it may you know if all you have to achieve is average it's uh it's may preserve your job but it's it's a confession in our view that you don't really understand the businesses that you own you know I base I mean I'm a personal portfolio basis you know I own one stock you know but it's a business I know it then and it leaves me very comfortable yeah so you know do I do I need own 28 stocks in order you know I have proper diversification you know and B nonsense and within Berkshire I could pick out three of our businesses and I would I would be very happy if they were the only businesses we owned and I had all my money in Berkshire now I love it the fact that we can find more than that and that we keep adding to it but three wonderful businesses is more than it's more than you need in this life to do very well and the average the average person isn't going to run into that I mean if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country they weren't built out of a portfolio 50 companies they were they were built by someone who who identified with us with a wonderful business coca-cola is a great example a lot of fortunes have been built on that and there aren't 50 Coca Cola's you know there aren't 20 if their words would be fine we could all go out and diversify like crazy among that group and and get results that would be equal to owning the really wonderful one but you're not gonna find it and and the truth is you don't need it I mean if you had a really wonderful business is very well protected against against the vicissitudes of the economy over time and and competition I mean you know we're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition and three of those will be better than a hundred average businesses and and they'll be safer incidentally I mean they there is less risk in owning three easy to identify wonderful businesses there and then there is an owning 50 well-known big businesses and it's amazing what has been taught over the years in finance classes about that but I can assure you that that I would rather pick if I had to bet the next 30 years on the fortunes of my family that would be dependent upon the income from a given group of businesses I would rather pick three businesses from those we own than own a diversified group of fifty one Charlie yeah what he's saying is that much of what is taught at modern corporate finance courses is twaddle you want to elaborate on that Charlie you cannot believe this stuff I mean it's a Modern Portfolio theory and it's it has no utility but I mean it you know it will tell you how to do average but you know I I think anybody can figure out how to do average in fifth grade I mean it's just not that difficult and it's it's elaborate and you know there's lots of little Greek letters and all kinds of things to make you feel that you're in the big leagues but it there is no value added yet when I look at the way you set up your portfolio's not as niches that no I don't I'm big on diversity or very big ligation of knowing how knowing how to adverse by well is more important than almost anything people don't understand this is that an evergreen principle yes that's it evergreen principle and the reason I'm saying that the way it is it's almost like a casino making its money okay okay the way that you do it is you get an edge so now when you have to make a bet I've got a bet against the whole world the world has view on something is reflected in the price so when I think something is attractive or unattractive that means I have to bet against the whole world and whether that's right or not that's difficult I get it right you know more often than I get it wrong but I'm going to get it wrong sometimes and so when you can take a lot of different bets what you can do is like the casino you'll get your average that your bet would be but you'll reduce your risk event one of those tables not being the table that's paying off and so that margin that so I can reduce my risk without reducing my return by knowing how to diversify and I'd say that's particularly true important for for the people or listening their investors because what they've got to do some risk without reduce in return that's right that's the specialty that's right elaborate a little bit more if you don't mind on that so redo some risk without reducing the return because a lot of times if I'm reducing the risk it means my return is also going Lord well you say no without even reduce them to return right I mean that's a high-paying skillset yeah it's the most important thing that you could start off doing if you have a number of equally good likely bets but they're uncorrelated like the casino you know one table is going to get me a margin like this but take another table and it makes me a margin like this but I might have volatility about those let me take all those investments that I think will make 10 percent so that's my return but they're uncorrelated with each other that means I'll still get to 10 I don't lower my 10 but my diversification means I lower my risk so I improved my return to risk ratio ah is that an art that you can teach oh yeah yeah I wrote about it in there's a what I call a section in this book the holy grail of investing it's a three pages long and it explains basically this important thing because when that epiphany happened to me and how I would do it it changed everything by being able to do that because how old I can improve through diversification I can improve my return to risk ratio by a factor of five so by diversifying okay the return relative to the risk I can keep my returns the same and reduce my risk to one-fifth if I know how to diversify well and that's what I'm explaining it's not all that complicated it's simply explained in the book but in any case that is the holy grail of investing today you have two views from Ray Dalio and from Warren Buffett and I for one if I had to lean towards any one of them would be leaning towards more the Warren Buffett approach and my reasons being is that I truly believe in the fundamentals of a company and I truly believe that there are loads of good companies however I don't have the capacity to analyze loads of them and I know that if I'm just buying 30 or 40 stocks then I know that for every in mental stock that my portfolio I'm probably decreasing the amount of effort I do in terms of researching and making sure that that stock is actually a good pick so I'll rather focus my energy maybe not on three stocks like he mentioned but probably more towards the ten fifteen stock mark where I thought that I can comfortably analyze that amount of stocks you know to the greatest detail one thing I will encourage you guys to think about is you know what is your diversification strategy for 2020 are you gonna have a purely ETF strategy which basically means that you don't need to you know really worry about all of the underlining investments that might be part of that ETF which for me there's pros and cons to that approach anyway at least from the perspective of not really understanding what Holdings your ETF possesses or will you go with an approach where you're actually just gonna pick two three four stocks that you think's really gonna do well and you know pull the eggs in that basket and not really you know worry about it the thing about the Ray Daly approach is that I'm not really confident in what he actually says because one I don't really like the whole bit in Scenario and the casino scenario that he's basically evaluated with I believed that fundamentals of a company versus I don't know casino gambling is about as similar as a German Shepherd and an octopus like the only similarity of German Shepherd an octopus have is that they both breathe like literally that's it and that's the same thing with the casino and with you know investing in fact with fundamentals in mind I think the only key factor that Evo share is the simple factor that you know is both to do with money however when it actually comes down to you know what happens casino gambling is that you just don't know whether it's gonna go red on black but I think when a company is profitable when a company doesn't have debt when a company has rising casillas or rise in sales when a cop when a company is undervalued when a company has you know good ratio and good earnings and and you know good insider trading and good technologies and good patents and whatever else that you're gonna be looking at with that company it and I think that actually it's not really a bet BAE is more of a safe investment so yeah get in the comments let me know your thoughts about your diversification strategy for 2020 be interesting to hear what you guys have to say and yeah two greats one that is you know the third richest man in the world Warren Buffett oneness the 25th richest richest man in the world Ray Dalio both obviously knew what they were doing but maybe it's very different times of very different climates get in the comments let me know how you feel please laugh his comm please subscribe and I'll catch you next time of another investment video peace
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