저자: Vico · 외국인
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in the investment world people felt enormous amount of high IQ people trying to be more skillful of normal can hardly imagine another activity that gets so much attention and weird things have happened and years ago one of our local investment counseling shops a very big one yes they were looking for a way to get an advantage over other investment counseling shops and they reasoned as follows we've got all these brilliant young people from Wharton and Harvard and so forth and they work so hard trying to understand business and market trends and everything else and if we just ask each one of our most brilliant men for their single best idea then create a formula with this collection the best ideas we would outperform averages by a big amount and that's the implausible to them because they were alleging ated that's what happens when you go to Harvard and Wharton and so they tried it out and of course it failed utterly so they tried it again and it failed utterly they tried the third time it also failed and of course what they were looking for you've got a little in the alchemist some centuries ago who wanted heard bled into gold they thought of you could just buy a little add later magic wand over to turn to the gold that would be their way to make money oh this counseling shop was looking for the equivalent of turning lead into gold and of course it didn't work I could have told them but they didn't ask me nothing the interesting thing about this situation is this is a very intelligent group of people it's come from all over the world you've got a lot of bright people from China where people tend to average out a little smarter and and the the issue is very simple there's double question why did that play Oh idea fail just think about it for a matter you've all been too fancy educational institutions I'll bet you there's hardly one on the audience who knows where that thing failed that's a pretty ridiculous demonstration I'm Maggie how could you not know that it's but that's what you should be able to answer it shows how hard it is to be rational on something very simple how hard it is how many kind of crazy ideas people have and they don't work you don't even know why they don't work even though it's perfectly obvious they've been properly educated now the place like Berkshire Hathaway or even the Daily Journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened why has that happen and the answer is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about canned soup and aerospace utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dream we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like jen kramer pretends it tends to have and and we always realized we worked very hard we can find a few things where we were right and the few things were enough and that was a reasonable expectation that is a very different way to approach the process and if you would ask Warren Buffett the same thing that this investment counseling did give me your best idea this year and you just follow Warren's best idea you would find it work beautifully but he was trying to know who he would give you 1 or 2 his stocks yet more limited ambitions I had a grandfather who was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a pioneer he came out to Iowa with no money but youth and health and took it away from the Indians he fought a black boy he was a captain Blackhawk Wars and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town on the bank highly regarded huge family on a very happy life and he had the attitude having come out to Iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and that we stayed there until that blacktop so created the modern rich civilization and some of the best land in the world yes the attitude was that a favored life like his when you were located in the right place he just got a few opportunities if you live to be about 90 and the trick in coming out well was easing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren around him all summer and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but I'm not my mother's natural imitator and I knew grandpa was right and so I always knew from the very first a little boy that the opportunities that were important that we're gonna come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude that they have at a big investment counseling thing they think if they study a million things they can know a million things and that and of course the result isn't almost nobody can outperform an index where as I said here was my daily journal stock my Berkshire Hathaway stock my holdings Italy lose Asian fund my Costco stock and of course I'm performing everybody 95 years old a friend we never have a transaction and the answer is I'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them another issue of course that's happened in the world of stock picking where all this money and effort goes into trying to be right trying to be rational is that we've had a really horrible thing happened to the investment counseling class and that is these young exponents have come along and they basically beat everybody and not only that the amount by which they beat everybody is roughly the amount of cost of running the operation and the huge changes in investments so the whole profession is basically being paid for accomplishing practically nothing this is very peculiar this is not the case with bowel surgery or even the criminal defense bar of the law or something that we'll whole profession where the chosen activity they've selected they can't do anything now in the old days the people in the profession always had some of this problem and they rationalized as follows we are saving our clients from the insurance salesman and the stockbroker the standard stockbroker it serves the active trader and they were saving people from the life insurance salesman and the the the hustling stockbroker who liked active trading and I suppose in a sense that the investing class is still saving those people through an even worse fate but it's very bigger when a whole profession that worked so hard and it's so admirable and the members of which we are delighted with may marry into our families and they just can't do what the profession is really trying to do which is get those an average results how is that profession handling this terrible situation as index investing gets more and more popular and including that a lot of fancy places I guess very simple answer they're having with denial they have a horrible problem they can't fix so they just to this is non-existent this is a very stupid way to handle a problem now it may be good when you're thinking about your own death which you can't fix just deny all the way to the end but but in all the practical fields of life this problem thoroughly understood is half solved or better cold-blood so it's it's wrong to have all these people in just the state of denial and doing what they've always did year after year and hoping the world will keep paying them for it even though an unmanaged index is virtually certain to do better and I don't have any solution for this problem I do think that index investing everybody did it won't work but for another considerable period index investing is going to work better than active stock picking where you trying to know a lot
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