저자: RichOppa · 한국인
요약 보기
불리(SOXL) 등 3배 레버리지 ETN/ETF의 변동성과 MDD 위험을 설명. 불리는 15종목 균등가중이라 변동성이 커 최대 90%대 하락 가능, TQQ는 시총가중 100종목이라 상대적으로 안정적. 회복에 필요한 상승률이 기하급수적으로 커지므로 3배 레버리지는 권하지 않으나 불가피하면 TQQ를 추천. 하락 방어와 분할매수 중요성 강조.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Rich Oppa. One of our subscribers asked a question regarding Bulji and TQ. First, they are currently investing in both, but they mentioned that Bulji has much higher volatility than TQ, so they are continuing their investment by leveraging that volatility, and they are worried. They expressed concern that if the price were to drop forever while they are investing, there would be no benefit to existing investors even if it subsequently trended upwards.
I understand what you mean. Even if it doesn't drop to zero, if it falls too much, it is practically impossible to recover, no matter how much it rises afterward. We have what is called the Max Drawdown ( MDD), which is a metric indicating how much the price has fallen from its peak. Naturally, the higher the volatility, the higher the MDD is bound to be.
As you know, Bulji is an ETN that tracks this index three times using an equal weighting of 6.67% across 15 stocks. For reference, ETNs are based on bonds. You invest based on the issuer's creditworthiness, so in other words, if the issuer goes bankrupt, the ETN goes bankrupt as well. On the other hand, if an ETF is delisted midway, the investment is simply returned based on the market price at that time.
While this is unrelated to volatility, surprisingly... Many people are currently hesitant to invest simply because it is an ETN. That is why I wanted to explain it. As for why the Bull Rat is bound to be highly volatile, first of all, regarding the number of stocks: TQQ is based on the Nasdaq 100, so it is based on about 100 stocks, whereas the Bull Rat consists of only 15.
Fundamentally, it is highly volatile, and if it gets caught in a proper market crash, it can drop by more than 90%, so that is a bit burdensome. Didn't it actually drop by over 90% during the recent interest rate hike issue? As I recall, it dropped close to 95%, whereas TQQ only fell to around 70% or 80%.
Also, regarding the "supernatural" theory, I think my own stock dropped to almost 90%. Certainly, the MDD of TQQ is somewhat lower compared to other 3x leveraged ETNs. In fact, the real problem with the Bull Rat is not simply that the number of stocks is small at 15. Since the 6.67% is distributed equally among them, stocks with relatively lower market cap and less stability—for example, It is true that Intel lags far behind stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Google.
However, having these stocks split equally at 6.67% each can be quite burdensome. On the other hand, because TQQ uses a market capitalization-weighted method, the world's most stable and largest-cap stocks—such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon— account for a high proportion. To give you an idea of the scale, out of a total of 100 stocks invested in, nearly 60% is invested in just the top 10.
The number of stocks is much larger, and the fact that very stable stocks like Apple and Google are invested in with high weightings provides a significant sense of psychological stability. To illustrate this, let me give you an extreme example. Suppose TQQ dropped from 100 won to 10 won, and Bullji dropped from 100 won to 1 won during the same period.
Bullji has higher volatility, so it can fall more. TQQ only needs to rise 10 times to reach its previous high, but Bullji needs to rise a whopping 100 times. If the MDD is -90, then... You need to go up 10 times to break even, but if it drops to 99%, you need to go up 100 times to break even. Numerically, this might seem like only a 9% difference, but 10 times and 100 times—it creates a truly massive gap.
Therefore, if volatility is too high, no matter how much it rises afterward, recovery is impossible once it has already fallen too much, so the likelihood of failure in long-term investment is naturally high. Your mental state just completely collapses. Of course, you can lower your average purchase price by using dollar-cost averaging, but since volatility is fundamentally high, the fatigue level is bound to be high.
If fatigue is too high, the probability of giving up halfway is naturally high. That is why I personally do not recommend stocks with excessive volatility like Buljil. Honestly, I am very reluctant to recommend 3x leverage itself to others, but if you absolutely must invest in 3x leverage, then TQQ is the one I would recommend the most.
So, when investing in 3x leverage like TQ or Buljil, the most important thing is not only taking full advantage of a bull market, but also how much you can defend against a bear market—what if it goes down 90%? Even defending against a loss of just 50% can significantly shorten the recovery time. To give you a simple example, let's say it goes down 50% and you only need to double your initial investment.
If it goes down 90%, you need to increase it tenfold. If it goes down 95%, you need to increase it twentyfold, and if it goes down 99%, you need to increase it a hundredfold. That is essentially a complete failure. You must do everything possible to prevent it from going below 50%. To do so, you would need to aggressively use split multipliers when the stock price drops. I will wrap up the video here for now. Thank you.
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