Best Semiconductor Stock: Intel Stock vs. Micron Stock | INTC Stock Analysis | MU Stock Analysis

요약 보기

인텔은 데이터센터 점유율 상실과 영업이익률 마이너스(-7%)로 부진하지만 투자 확대 후 회복 기대. 마이크론은 데이터센터 매출 비중 50%로 성장 지속, 영업이익률 15.7%에서 회복 중. 두 종목 모두 선행PER·DCF 기준 저평가. 다만 설비투자 리스크 존재. 두 종목 중 하나를 고른다면 마이크론 선호.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Intel and Micron are two of the US-based semiconductor manufacturers and designers that are of vital importance to the United States. They've received billions of dollars in grants and loans from the U.S. government. But which of these two stocks is better to buy, Intel or Micron? I'm going to answer that question in this video .

02. I will compare these two semiconductor stocks based on revenue and profitability. Next, I will analyze the valuation by comparing them based on two different valuation metrics: the future price-earnings ratio and then my discounted cash flow valuations of these two stocks. So let's get to it. I want to thank MLYU for sponsoring this video.

03. Visit f.com/parkkev to learn about the 10 best stocks to buy now. If we look at the revenue results over a decade, we notice a couple of trend lines here. First, we see Intel's fall from grace, where revenues of $80 billion have dropped by approximately one-third to $54 billion, as Intel has lost market share specifically in the data center segment.

04. Although it still holds a considerable market share in the personal computer sector, it has lost a considerable market share in the data center sector, as these have moved to use newer, different technologies, some from ARM and others from Nvidia, which focuses mainly on GPU-optimized data centers. The new versions are optimized for artificial intelligence, which has hurt Intel.

05. Micron has a role to play in this new development of data centers. Micron's technology is integrated into the Nvidia technology being used in these new AI-optimized data centers . Micron's revenue has fluctuated, but continues to show increases over the last decade, at 29 billion. This figure is considerably higher than in 2015.

06. Although there has been volatility, the company's revenue is growing and is expected to continue growing. Micron is not losing market share in the personal computer sector or in the consumer electronics sector. It is simply having difficulty growing again in those categories for industry-specific reasons, not company-specific reasons.

07. The personal computer and consumer electronics industries have not recovered as many market participants predicted in the second half of 2024. New forecasts suggest that recovery has been delayed from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025. Therefore, if that market recovers, that part of Micron's business may also recover.

08. And today, 50% of Micron's business comes from data center revenue. Therefore, it has diversified beyond the consumer electronics industry due to the rapid growth of the data center segment. If I had to make a future forecast, revenue growth looks pretty solid for both of these. Intel has made tens of billions of dollars in investments in the manufacturing aspect of its business, in the foundry aspect of the business .

09. Those investments will begin to pay off sometime in the second half of this year or from 2026 onwards. Therefore, Micron will begin to recover some of the revenue growth from those investments for the reasons I mentioned. Therefore, revenue growth appears solid. Each of these two semiconductor companies is on the rise.

10. Profitability, meanwhile, is a similar story. Volatility for Micron and a bearish trend for Intel. Intel's operating profit margin has turned negative, at -7%, and is likely to remain negative for some time until the investments it made in the manufacturing and foundry side of the business begin to pay off.

11. Meanwhile, Micron's operating margin of 15.7% has been recovering. I expect this trend to continue to increase in the coming quarters and years. If I had to make an operating profitability forecast comparing these two companies over the next 5 years, I would say that Micron's operating margins, on average, will be higher for Micron over the next 5 years compared to Intel's over the next 5 years.

12. Very good. Now that we've analyzed the company's revenue and profit metrics, let's look at the valuation. Micron is trading at a futures price on earnings of just 8.3 , which is the cheapest it has traded at all this year. And something similar happens with Intel. It is now trading at a futures P/E ratio of just 11, which is the cheapest in a long time.

13. So both Micron and Intel are trading at the lowest valuations they have been at for a long time. And there are a couple of reasons for that. Firstly, investors do not like this business model that has semiconductor manufacturing and design in the same business. Investors like the separate business model.

14. They either choose to be a semiconductor design company or they choose to be a semiconductor manufacturing company . It seems that investors are convinced that you can't do both and be successful in business. It seems that over the last few decades of history, they have learned that this is not a viable or very profitable business model .

15. That's why Intel and Micron have been penalized for employing that strategy and not separating those parts of the business. The second issue is that Intel and Micron are currently, and have been for the last year or two, increasing capital expenditures by billions of dollars. And that increases the risks because you're never sure if those investments are going to give the kind of results you expect when you make those investments, right ?

16. There is always a risk. Remember that I made many videos about electric vehicles and electric vehicle companies in 2019, 2020, 2018, and 2017. They were very excited about the electric vehicle industry and spent billions of dollars on these electric vehicle manufacturing facilities. And when it came time to reap the rewards of their investments, they turned out to be far worse than they had anticipated when they made those investments.

17. If these electric vehicle companies had known what the demand for electric vehicles was really going to be like when they had their facilities up and running, they would never have built them because the demand for electric vehicles is much lower than what was predicted when they initially built those manufacturing facilities.

18. That's the risk that worries investors with these semiconductor companies that are spending billions of dollars on these manufacturing expansions because semiconductor demand forecasts are skyrocketing. But you can never be sure that in 2, 4 or 6 years, when these facilities are ready, the demand will be what they predict today.

19. That's the risk. That's why these ratings are depressed. Another way I view valuation is through a discounted cash flow model . And my DCF for Micron suggests that its intrinsic value is $138 per share and the current market price is $95 per share. So my DCF for Micron agrees with PE's suggestion going forward, which is that it's undervalued.

20. And something similar happens with Intel. My discounted cash flow valuation for Intel suggests it should be worth $30-36 per share, and it's only trading at $19 per share. Again, underrated. But which one is more underrated? I have rated them as a purchase. I believe the risk/reward ratio is favorable, although the risks are high , as I mentioned.

21. But if I had to choose just one of these two semiconductor stocks, I would choose Micron. Hello everyone. Many of you have been asking me about my investment strategy, and I'm pleased to announce that I've written a book, now available, that outlin.