Charlie Munger Reveals Secrets to Value Investing Ch 3

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결론: 가치투자는 어떤 형태든 '지불한 가격보다 더 큰 가치를 얻는' 투자이며, 장기적으로 유효하다. 가치투자의 정의와 적용: 모든 좋은 투자는 본질적으로 가치투자이다. 다만 강한 기업에서 가치를 찾는 방식과 약한 기업에서 찾는 방식이 있을 뿐이다. 시장 환경 변화: 미국에서는 경쟁 심화로 쉬운 가치투자 기회가 줄었고, 그래서 버크셔가 애플처럼 과거에는 사지 않았을 종목을 매수하게 되었다. 다만 앞으로도 시기에 따라 쉬운 시기와 어려운 시기가 번갈아 올 것이다. 분산투자 비판: 주식을 100개 보유하는 것은 '광기'에 가깝고, 4~5개 종목에 집중하는 것이 더 합리적이다. 이를 분산이 아닌 '이혼(divorcification)'이라고 표현했다. 과거 저점 회고: 2008~2009년 금융위기 때 공포로 대다수 투자자가 주식을 외면하면서 큰 기회가 생겼고, 이는 이후 세대에게 드문 기회였다. 현재 밸류에이션은 과거보다 높아 기회는 줄었다. 다만 BofA 같은 특정 종목이 다시 그만큼 싸질 것이라고는 보지 않는다. 최저점 매수 타이밍은 운이었다는 취지로 언급했다. 투자 원칙: 이해할 수 있는 사업, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위, 정직하고 유능한 경영진, 안전마진을 갖춘 적정 가격 순으로 본다. 이 원칙이 단순해서 전문 투자계층이 이를 널리 받아들이지 않는다고 농담조로 말했다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 가치투자는 유효하며 스마트한 투자자는 계속 존재할 것이라는 견해.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. for instance the apple investment warren and you were known as value investors is that not the core discipline of berkshire hathaway anymore or does that not even matter well you got to remember that in our way of thinking all intelligent investment is value investment because why would you want to buy something which wasn't worth as much as you were paying for it and who wouldn't like buying something for less than its worth so the only difference when people talk about value invested you're always be a value investor now there are various ways to look for value investments just as there are various places to fish and the first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are the first rule of value investing is to find some place to fish for value investments where there are a lot of them and of course it's gotten hard in the united states to find easy value investments because the world is so competitive and that accounts for a lot of what you see in berkshire where we buy securities like apple we wouldn't have bought in the old days when we had more mundane things that were serving us very well so we're just looking in different places but we're value investors and so they can some people when they say value investor they mean somebody that emphasizes working capital or something meaning they should you should fish in that particular place but i think that's all i think it's a bad use of the language to think there's a difference between value investment investing and other good investing all good investing is value investing by definition and so they're just various places to fish for value investments and of course as the world gets tougher you have to fish in places you didn't fish before and so the idea with apple then is that there's value there that's unrecognized by the market different kind of value investing and one with which we're less familiar but we wouldn't have bothered if we didn't think it was a good investment do you think value investing is still relevant in a gdp decreasing world and what about passive investing well that is easy value investing the way i regard it will never go out of style because value investing the way i conceive it is is always wanting to get more value than you pay for when you buy a stock and that approach will never go out of style some people think that value investing is you chase companies which have a lot of cash and they're a lousy business or something but i don't define that as value investing i think all good investing is value investing it's just that some people look for values in strong companies and some look for values in weak companies but but every value investor tries to get more value than he pays for what is interesting is that in wealth management a lot of people think that if they have a hundred stocks they're investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five i regard this as insanity absolute insanity i find it much easier to find four or five investments where i have a pretty reasonable chance of being right that they're way above average i think it's much easier to find five than it is to find a hundred i think the people who argue for all this diversification by the way i call it divorcification and which i copied from somebody and and i'm way more comfortable owning two or three stocks which i think i know something about and where i think i have an advantage you spent a lot of time today talking about how people who think that they can beat the market averages are probably fooling themselves how much tougher it's gotten to be a value investor or even just an investor in general and i was just wondering do you think the golden era of investing is over well not forever why why because i think it isn't like the last recession or the last big opportunity that the world is ever going to get is passed there'll be opportunities in the future there are times where they're easier and their times which are harder so is right now tougher just because evaluations just because evaluations have come up so much of course so you think that a the valuations have come up would be the competition sorting through those opportunities is more intelligent and more aggressive and more numerous of course it's harder do you think that the net result is people are going to get worse results do you think that the number of people who are smarter who have better information than they used to that that will go down or it will just be a question of valuations coming down at some point well i think valuations will come will go up and down because they always have and and i think we'll have smart people in the in this game forever lots of them the opportunities that we all remember came from a demoralized period when about 90 percent of the natural stock buyers got very discouraged with stocks that's what created the opportunity for these fabulous records that my generation had and that was a rare opportunity that came to a rare group of people of whom i was one and warren was another so you're talking about the people who start now have a much less they have lower opportunity do you think we saw a generational low after 2008 beginning of 2009 generational maybe yeah i don't think the bank of america is going to be cheaper it was then yes it was low there were huge opportunities then what about just back around december christmas eve prices were down 20 percent further for a lot of stocks well i don't follow the details and don't remember the exact days that are i know that when the daily journal bought those bank stocks it was basically the low tech right that was an accident i deserve no credit for that well you deserve some credit no well i but the exact perfect timing was an accident we have to deal with things that we're capable of understanding and then once we're over that filter we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage and then of course we would vastly prefer a management place with a lot of integrity and talent and finally no matter how wonderful it is it's not worth an infinite price so we have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural visititudes of life that's a very simple set of ideas and the reason that our ideas have not spread faster is they're too simple the professional classes can't justify their existence if that's all i have to say i mean it's also obvious and so simple what would they have to do with the rest of the semester you