저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 성장 스토리에 대한 낙관이 강하며, 부동산·시멘트 업종에 긍정적 전망을 보임. 인도 성장 및 시장 분위기: 모틸랄오스왈 글로벌 투자자 컨퍼런스 분위기가 매우 뜨겁고, 투자자 미팅 요청이 1만7~8천 건에 달한다고 언급. 기업 발표자도 200곳 이상으로 역대 최대 수준. 리테일 주식 투자 확대: 리테일 투자자 수가 3년 만에 약 4천만(4 crore)에서 1억2천만(12 crore)으로 증가했고, 매달 약 2천만 명이 추가로 유입된다고 설명. 리테일 자금 유입은 약 1.5~1.7조 루피 규모. 부동산 업종: Anuj Puri(Anarock 계열 발표)의 발표를 긍정 평가. RERA 도입 전 약 2만2천 개였던 건설사가 현재 3~4천 개로 줄어 업계 재편이 진행 중이며, 수요 구조 개선이 지속 가능하다는 견해. 중국 부동산 위기와 대비해 인도는 연간 주요 8개 도시 약 40만~100만 호 수준으로 성장 여지가 크다고 주장. 10~15년 내 연 400~500만 호 도달 가능성 언급. 시멘트 업종: 상위 4개사(UltraTech 등)가 시장점유율 55~65%를 차지하며, 수요는 연평균 약 8% 성장 전망. 발표자 기업의 생산능력을 5,500만 톤에서 2030년 1억1천만 톤으로 확대 계획 언급. Dalmia Cement 발표에 대해 긍정적 평가. 리스크·유의점: 시장 낙관이 과열될 수 있다는 진행자 우려에 대해 명확한 반박 없이 분위기가 긍정적이라고 답변. 기업 발표가 많아 과도한 낙관에 대한 경계 필요성이 간접적으로 제기됨. 출연자 전망: 인도 시장 및 리테일 투자 확대에 대한 장기 낙관. 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 수치 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
This year's theme for Motilal Oswal's 19th Annual Global Investor Conference is "India: Rising Nation on the Move." There is no doubt that India is currently the world's shining star. India sits at the top of the economic prosperity chart, and while the world is grappling with a variety of problems, investors are seeing opportunities here.
The fast-paced economy, the large market, demographic dividends, and reforms are all attracting investors. Joining us from the sidelines of the conference to discuss India's growth story and market dynamics is Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Ramdev ji, good morning.
First of all, I apologize. I wanted to come there and do this interview. It's a lot of fun, and there is a lot of activity going on here. I think this is probably the biggest conference we have ever held. The conference is held every year and is among the biggest India conferences.
This time the investor response has been tremendous. Around 200 companies have come, the highest ever, and investors have sent meeting requests numbering around 17,000 to 18,000. Right now we can conduct eight to nine thousand meetings with these 200 companies, according to everyone's convenience. Clearly investor excitement is very high. This is also the first year after COVID, and many people from big institutions have come in groups, including uncles and many others. Around 200 to 250 people have come. All this means there is a lot of excitement across the conference.
Yesterday, when we saw five or six presentations, the mood was optimistic and ambitious. We people in the stock market often say that demographics and growth are everything, but this time the cooperative atmosphere is different. The special thing is that the corporates are also speaking with excitement. We hear that there are good corporates, and in the presentations from companies like Paisalo, Real Estate, with Anuj Puri presenting, and Dalmia Cement, the outlook was clearly outstanding and bullish.
In the last two years, sometimes investors were speaking while corporates were not, and sometimes corporates were speaking while investors were not bullish. Are we now at a time when corporates, promoters, and investors are all bullish? Because of that, there is some fear that everyone is bullish. Is that not the case at this time?
Yes, I am saying the same thing, and valuations are also becoming visible. But one of the biggest changes that has happened, both before and right now, is the retail equity revolution. Yesterday I presented this in a big way. Earlier only about 4 crore people used to participate, but now it has become 12 crore in three years, and still about 2 crore new people are joining every month. What used to be a small river has now become a very big river, like the Ganga or Yamuna. Going by this trajectory, it can grow even more. The retail money coming in is around 15,000 to 17,000 crore, but what matters is understanding this change, what it means, and what its power will be going forward.
You liked Anuj Puri's presentation very much, which redefined India's real estate reality. We have seen that real estate stocks are doing great, and stocks like Polycab, Astral, and ceramics companies have seen a tremendous boom. What did he bring out in this presentation? Is the storm brewing in real estate at this time sustainable?
According to him, it is becoming sustainable. The presentation was very bullish. The micro trends and on-the-ground demand are good. But before RERA there were around 22,000 builders, and now hardly 3,000 to 4,000 have remained. There is a lot of consolidation happening among big builders, and small builders and land aggregators also have a role. However, if customer behavior changes, there should be a lot of reported activity, so there is a lot of churning in this sector.
Let me tell you about China: they had a huge expansion in real estate and there are many problems there now. In our country, across the eight big cities together, around 4 lakh houses are sold every year, and about one crore houses are sold in total. China did a lot of over-construction and leveraged heavily, and that has caused some trouble. India's story has just begun. Even in the next 10 to 15 years, if we reach 40 to 50 lakh houses a year, that is a very big story.
You talked about Dalmia Cement. These days he has actually stopped talking to the media much. Please tell us exactly what he said, what you liked from his presentation, and what view you hold on Dalmia Cement.
He talked about growth. He said the growth momentum has been strong for four years. It reduced in the middle but has again increased to 10 to 11 percent in the last two years. His understanding is that there will be around 8 percent growth in the next four to five years. Dalmia Cement and the big four players, such as UltraTech and others, have around 55, 60, and 65 percent market share, and according to them, this consolidation will increase further. Their own production is set to go from 55 million tonnes to 110 million tonnes by 2030. I thought that was enough to achieve a lot in the coming years. The presentation was refreshing. Every presentation has its own merits. There was a bank presentation too, and I talked to them. Only good companies have presentations, but the mood is quite exciting. It is an optimistic mood, and I am telling you this with confidence.
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